Koufax

The real dream scenario is getting the 1 seed plus Cincinnati beating the Steelers. Means we get the bye then the winner of PIT/HOU, while Baltimore goes to KC for a chance to come to us. However it plays out we are going to have to beat the best teams in football, so sticking to going 1-0 each week and getting healthy is more important than catching a break from someone else.

If one thing goes our way on Christmas, we need three more things to go our way. 1) Beat the Jets this week 2) Beat the @Pats next week 3) KC loses in Denver next week. If KC beats PIT then beating the Jets guarantees us the 2 seed, and the winner of Ravens Texans gets the 3 seed. Beating the Jets is a huge game for us on so many levels. And after watching NE play us tough and us perform in a way that wouldn't have cut it in the playoffs, hopefully there is a sense of urgency. Keep getting healthier, enjoy Christmas, and go 1-0 on Sunday.

Our defense is the story and I expect some halftime adjustments. But Josh and Brady not taking medium plays to establish and going difficult and deep over and over is frustrating.

Yes, it had to be one play ahead. If a sneak was the call and a sneak failed, calling a timeout was not the smartest outcome. Not having that in Josh's headset and either spike or run it again, and no timeout can be used under any circumstances is the mistake. I don't personally love the first down sneak, and prefer a pass on first down, but that is more debatable. Calling a timeout is the failed decision and mathematically indefensible. Not knowing what you were going to do if the sneak failed and/or choosing the exact worst thing you could do, both lowered our chances of a comeback. If McD says "We like the call of the sneak on first, but know we can't take the timeout if it fails" I'm fine with it. But the "we hoped it would go well, and didn't have a plan for if it didn't, so just picked the worst thing to do" is bad game management.

Right, there will always be people who judge the success of failure of the outcome. Josh getting stopped on a one yard sneak is an unlikely outcome, but a devastating one. Just like for it to matter our defense has to be able to force a three and out after. But let's come back to some math on 1st and 1, with the goal of scoring a TD with as much time and three timeouts as possible. Option 1: Pass, Pass, TBD. Result 1: Success (TD on one of first two plays) Result 2: Soft fail (two incompletions, 12 seconds off the clock, and either try another pass or decide to go to option 2 now) Result 3: Hard fail (fumbled snap, interception, sack) Option 2: Sneak, TBD Result 1: Success (TD on sneak) Result 2: Soft fail (stopped, but able to get quickly up, no timeout, spike or 2nd down being run quickly) Result 3: Hard fail (stopped and stuck in a pile, use a timeout, fumble, sack) Throw some percentages on there, and you can run some calculations on which is more likely to get you a TD with three timeouts. Either success does, but on failure it depends. I think timeout was the huge wrong decision even if they rush, and getting to a spike or a second attempt in a hurry would have been better math. If you are not going to use the timeout and know what is next, the high percentage sneak doesn't cost you the game. But the mere decision to pass on first doesn't guarantee success and doesn't avoid disaster. I think it would have increased probability of success and passing was the right call, just like running Marshawn instead of trying the slant was better Math, but the Seahawks slant could have been a TD and Marshawn could have been stuffed or fumbled. The outcome does not prove the correct or incorrect choice, but a failed outcome can definitely draw attention to the high likelihood that the most probable successful choice wasn't chosen.

Nine on the field and not returning the kick are unacceptable lack of situational awareness. Changing the chances of winning from 0.1% to 0% so not in the top fifty most relevant plays of the day, but frustrating coming out of a timeout. We can calm down, learn from it, and not freak out, but we can also call a spade a spade.

Also, hidden play of the day was the first half 3rd and 2 with 1:20 left at the -41. Not sure on play design since it broke down but not having a play where Shakir being always open somewhere 5-10 and Josh throwing the ball 40 yards to an area where three receivers and four defenders were is a play you want back.

Some thoughts from the game yesterday from the stadium: 1) Bills Mafia was great for attendance but got the wind out of our sails with a few early deficits and we were not as loud and helpful until the key drive. 2) Scoring ten points in two minutes is not a clear path regardless, but we can all agree and stop discussing that running and calling a timeout was bad football strategy. Everyone in our section was immediately doing clock math and knew it. We can all stipulate and move on but that is three pass plays in a row period. I don’t want to blow it out of size as long as we all know a mistake was made and better in December than January or February. Reverse of the Carroll/Lynch SB decision and a no brainer. 3) Defense did not show up. Will need to look at it more closely but it felt like the D Line just did not play. Secondary got beat and didn’t make that one great play against two unreal receivers and a hall of fame quarterback all having a perfect day, but the lack of pressure (even getting close) made the task harder. This unit is under the microscope next week against Detroit and if they play like this in the playoffs I don’t like our chances. 4) Putting up 42 is unreal, but Josh is right that the offense needed to be better. The first three and out was bailed out by a personal foul but was tradition bad bills start and would have given the ball right back to Stafford. Right before the blocked punt a four and out with three deep balls and no short possession game was the series people won’t focus on but was a lot more crucial to the game than the last minute stuff. Our final series of the first half two more deep incompletions when we could have marched down the field. Then a three and out to start the second half. I love our Superman but high probability. Hard to fault the offense in a six touchdown performance but when Cook up the middle wasn’t there we had lots of higher probability drove sustaining options without getting into shootout mode right away. 10-3 AFC East champs heading to Detroit for a redemption game and on track for great January opportunities. Go Bills.

The one in February? Or the one in December?

I had the pleasure of talking with his dad for about an hour last year before the Chargers game, and I’m so happy for the kid. His opportunity took a while but he rose to the occasion. Also check out his effort on the big touchdown. Excellent one on one blocking on the one guy who had a chance to stop Josh for a loss, one play after jumping to left tackle for a play.

Two loss Steelers lead the North, Ravens are top wild card. Need to beat the Chiefs to think about 1, but otherwise 2 plays 7 (Bills Broncos) 3 plays 6 (Steelers Chargers) 4 plays 5 (Texans Ravens) Then Ravens/Texans play Chiefs and Bills host Steelers. This is the perfect setup, and the idea that we know a lot of stuff by week 16 much less week 17 is pretty silly. And even if it was, 20 days without football is not the path to playing great football. Texans and Ravens are both good matchups for the Chiefs and to get the AFC championship game in Buffalo, and not just marching to a Bill trip to KC, but there is a ton of football left, and beating the Colts on the road is by far the most important piece right now.

Cap complexities aside, we traded an unhappy Diggs and #96 for Cooper and #50. Probably a trade I would have made in the offseason. Cooper is bigger and taller and a little younger. Like Diggs over the last 6 years he has played and produced. How bad Cleveland has been offensively, I expect this to be much more than a neutral change of scenery and am excited to have him. No need to focus on our Ex. But I'm really excited to have Amari, and see what he can do with the best QB he has ever played with in a WR room craving him.

Excuse me. Sandy’s curveball was a true 12-6 without any lateral movement. Meaning he could get it through the uprights and hit the ground behind without needing a net. I believe you meant to say a Blake Treinen slider and just got your Dodgers confused. Apology accepted.

Any chance we can bump Hollins down on the progression list, and keep feeding Cook? Cook is going to be good enough that we don't need homeruns early when we throw and can just get completions and move chains.

Disappointing that these players are out, but the ebb and flow of injuries is part of the season. I don't think any injury here backs us up too far, and interferes with a next man up plan, but definitely see Oliver as the biggest short term blow, as his disruption helps the edge guys so much, and his absence might hurt the impact the edge players make more than the direct impact of defending runs up the middle. I think our Everybody Eats / Open Receiver plan will work fine without Shakir and will help cover for him while he gets healthy. I think Bishop is better than Rapp, and if this week is where we deal with the first start mistakes as he gets up to speed, I expect the net impact to be minimal and the long term benefit as he becomes our future difference maker gets accelerated.