Z-Mann
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Burrow - Bengals have top pick, but I have leverage
Z-Mann replied to Reed83HOF's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
True or not, I don't see where this kid has much leverage. What's he going to do, sit a year if the Bengals draft him? He's already an older college guy, that extra year isn't going to help. Then what? He comes out in the draft with Trevor Lawrence, and Burrow is not guaranteed of getting picked first anymore? -
The JA better clean up that fumbling problem, because a lot of his fumbles bounced the right way for us to recover. He was third among QB's in fumbles in 2019 with 14. From the top 25 fumbling QB's (minus Allen), they lost the ball about 44% of the time. Allen only lost it 29% of the time. And he was coughing the ball up in a lot of critical situations, but where we got the ball back. So I maintain that the Bills defense did something that is hard to sustain that made them better, just as the Bears defense did.
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Fair statement. I also feel like it's fair to say that both defenses did something that is tough to sustain...that is, the Bears with their turnovers and the Bills with their health...
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Why do you think that is though, that people - fans and non-fans - have that perception? Not sure what the answer is, but I feel like it's equally as lazy if anyone says that "people just hate Buffalo" or whatever....
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Way too early 2020 season expectations
Z-Mann replied to Jasovon's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Yea, sorry, that's what I meant - a 3 win team in 2019, dirty math, may get around 5-6 wins in 2020. Make sense, good rule of thumb. -
Way too early 2020 season expectations
Z-Mann replied to Jasovon's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
So for teams under .500, you would improve them 50% to the mean of 8-8? -
Way too early 2020 season expectations
Z-Mann replied to Jasovon's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Also want to add - there are some exit points between "success" and "failure". For example, If they are on the cusp of the playoffs but don't make it, and Allen was hurt for 10 games, 4 of our starting OL went out, Singletary gets hurt, etc...I don't know if I would consider that a "failure". Assuming they stay relatively healthy next year and avoid injuries to multiple key players, I do feel like anything less than a playoff birth, even with a tougher schedule, would certainly be disappointing. If that's the case, it could mean a variety of things, none of them necessary good...like Allen didn't play well, or our draft picks busted out, or we got out-coached in numerous games, or they weren't as good as we thought they were (due to strength of schedule), etc. -
Way too early 2020 season expectations
Z-Mann replied to Jasovon's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Good question - for me, it's just a numbers thing. The better you are, the harder it is to improve. A team that won 3 games in 2019 and wins 7 in 2020...4 win and 57% improvement. I'm not sure how realistic it is to expect that same kind of jump from a team that had say, 11 wins in 2019. I also feel that, incrementally, Miami and the Jets just have more room to improve. Bills were very healthy all year, while the Jets had all sorts of injuries. If the Jets and Bills both get better by 20% but the Jets players stay healthy, they would make a bigger jump from 2019 to 2020. Just as an example. Realistically, there are just so many dang variables in football, a bounce here or there, a few untimely injuries, etc....can swing a team from 7 wins to 10 wins, and vice versa. I do feel like the Bills should be a more talented team next year. -
Way too early 2020 season expectations
Z-Mann replied to Jasovon's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Yea man, you're not wrong and all reasonable things to say. Hard for anyone to argue that he didn't improve in year 2. Among some other things, I still worry about his completion %, and how he still could not crack 60%. I would be more "ok" with that if he passed the ball like we thought he would at the beginning of the season...namely lots of long bombs and big throws. Totally understandable how a QB may have a lower CP playing like that...but a huge majority of his throws were short and intermediate. *If* that continues to be the case, he really needs to make another big jump into year 3 and get closer to that 70% mark. Huge win for him and fans if he can pull that off. -
Slightly disagree with the, "he will learn from it" part. Just because a mistake happens doesn't necessarily mean that learning WILL take place and will be absorbed. For example, earlier in the season when Josh had some fumbling problems, we could have said after each one, "well, he learned from that". Yet he continued his fumbling issues throughout the season and into the playoffs. On the other hand, it looks like he may have learned something from the interceptions that he's thrown because he took care of the ball much better the second half of the season. That's all I got. Just because mistakes happens does not necessarily equate to learning and improving on said mistake.
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Way too early 2020 season expectations
Z-Mann replied to Jasovon's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I'll say 8-8...the team benefited from an easy schedule this year, and next year it seems to be tougher. Not a big fan of the schedule game, but prior to the 2019 season we mostly thought that our schedule looked pretty easy, and it was...big help for us. I also feel like the Jets and Miami will be better, so those are not borderline guaranteed wins, while the Patriots take a step back. 8-8 / 9-7 might win this division in 2020. Josh Allen will continue to be a maniac and win some games in the 4th quarter and show to be electric at times, but look lost in other games. He won't improve much from his 2019 season, and we will start questioning whether he really is "the guy" that can bring us a Super Bowl, not just get us to the playoffs. -
I just don't understand how both can't be true - feels like either you love Allen and he can do no wrong...and on the other side, if someone levels some criticism Allen's way, then they must think Allen is terrible and will always be awful. Both can be true - he's not having the year that we expected and he definitely has some opportunity to get better...but at the same time he's the QB of a playoff team and he has definitely contributed to some of our wins. His passer rating has improved, along with his TD to INT ratio, and his DVOA is better this year than last. His completion % also increased significantly as well...so there is a lot to like, and I feel like it's borderline foolish to say he isn't any better this year. On the other side...he's become a game Manager at this point in his early career. I hope we didn't draft up and pick a QB...to be a good game Manager. There's nothing wrong with with a QB like this, and teams can win games with good game managers, and teams can make playoffs with good game managers...just have to expect that there is a ceiling with this type of QB, if this ends up being what he is. It is disheartening to see QB's who are in their first year perform statistically as good or better in 2019 than Allen. Makes me think that, in today's NFL, anyone can be at LEAST an Andy Dalton or David Carr with any sort of decent coaching, but I was expecting JA to be better than that. May still happen, just hasn't happen in 2019.
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Huh...Winston puts up gaudy numbers, but...WOW...as far as doing the two most important things for a QB to (besides wins), which is producing TD's and not turning the ball over... Allen is EASILY better than Winston this year. Winston - 31 total TD's generated (30 passing, 1 running), 29 turnovers (24 picks, 5 fumbles lost) - 1.1 : 1 TD to turnover ratio Allen - 27 total TD's generated (18 passing 9 running), 13 turnovers (9 picks, 4 fumbles lost) - 2.1 : 1 TD to turnover ratio The one thing I feel that Winston has over Allen is the ability to throw for a lot of yards, if necessary. If I was behind by 21 points, I want Winston to have a shot at coming back. Either I do or I lose by 42 points from his turnovers. Allen hasn't shown me YET that, if the defense falters a bit and they fall behind by 21, that he can bring them back with his arm. Give me the 2019 Allen over the 2019 Winston every time.
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A lot of you guys on here don't get the show...it's not supposed to be taken seriously. I just laugh at those types of opinions as the Bills keep winning games...