JohnC

You are right that it was Bass Pro that ultimately didn't want to consumate the deal. The next time the region enters into a development arrangement they should put in some explicit timelines in the contract. There is a dramatic difference in the way Pegula and his associates are handling their development project around the water front and the way the Bass Pro people acted with their elusive paper project. Pegula is off to the races with his fast action shovels already throwing the dirt.

I have read reports that the Cardinals would love to select him with their second round pick ahead of us. I watched him in a gaime against Maryland last year Once he got into rythm in the second half he was a passing virtuoso. His receivers dropped a lot of passes. It didn't deter him. He went right back at the same receivers and kept on with the deluge of pretty passes. His throws were high caliber NFL throws. He fit in some beautfiful passes in tight spots. He also demonstrated his potent arm by airing out a number of throws. He is going to need a little more time to get bigger and acclimate himself to the pro game. But there is a good chance that he could ultimately be the best qb in this draft. I do have concerns with his lack of mobility but he does have a quick release to offset the pressure. If the Bills are pegging him as their franchise qb I would like to see them trade down a tad and then take him in the first round. I don't believe that he will be there in the second round for us. If the Bills decide to lock him up with their 8th pick I won't be one to complain.

Fitz's problem had little to do with the mental side of the game. He could adequately read defenses and know where to go with the ball. His problem was that he was a weak armed erratic passer. He simply on a consistent basis could not execute what he wanted to do. Just as a back could adquately read blocks and know where to run it doesn't work out if you can't hit the hole fast enough. In other words physical limitations trump mental awareness.

Kiper and McShay give a short and quick assessment on the qb prospects in this draft. http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9061940

There is a good chance that the Bills could be in position to take the top qb prospect in this draft, or at worst the second pick at the qb prospects. I have no firm stance on which one is the best. Each has different skill sets. If the Bills are going to take a risk on a player then why not take the risk on the most important and impactful position on the field. If it doesn't work out then try again next year. Drew Brees is going to be in the HOF some day. He was drafted in the top of the second round. He was not noted for his athleticism or for his powerful arm. What makes his special is his accuracy and his ability to quickly process information and make reads. What distinguishes him is his intangibles relating to the mental side of the game. Does Barkley fall in the Brees mold or in the Pennington mold? The below link is a Mariucci interview of Barkley. Barkley is a very impressive person. http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-2/Mock-Draft-Watch-50/fa35a67c-93b1-49ea-8bf4-7bbcbe0a4b30?campaign=BillsBuzz

Absolutely. I'm very intrigued with his passing skills. Do I have questions about his mobility? Yes. But instead of having another dullard football season it would have been fun watching a qb play and develop. Not only was last year a losing year with Fitz but it also was a wasted year. Instead of giving a potential talent an opportunity to show what he is capable of we squandered playing time with a limited qb who will never overcome his well known limitations. The thought that Nix didn't take a chance on qb prospects such as Kaepernick, Dalton, Wilson and Mallett, and instead played it crippling safe with below par players such as CB Aaron Williams, MLB Sheppard and track receiver TJ Graham is maddening. Nix has not only failed this franchise but he has set it back. His paltry record accurately reflects his competence level as a GM. It's a dam shame!

If you take out the issue of the qb position in Nix's three drafts it is still fair to say that overall his draft record has been mediocre.If Nix's roster was more robust and all he needed to do was add a quality qb prospect to make this team a serious team then I would give him credit for putting this franchise in a good position for success. That certainly is not the case. No one doubts that it is a major challenge to come up with a legitimate franchise qb. But when you take stewardship for a franchise that hasn't had a quality franchise qb for a generation and you don't make it a priority to secure one over a three year period then you have not acted very smartly. The major criticism most people have with Nix is not that he tried and failed to get a qb but that he didn't really try.

Don't misinterpret my post. If they have a strong conviction on a particular qb then go ahead and take the plunge. But if they believe that they can still get their qb at a lower position then they should consider the trade down maneuver. There is a possibility that they could favor a qb who is more of a developmental player and who in the long run will be a better player, such as Glennon or Bray. If that is the case then it would be worth the risk of getting more picks with the trade deal. A couple of years ago the 49ers were intrigued with Kaepernick. It didn't make sense for them to take him in the first round so they ended up trading up in the second round to select him. My point is that using some flexibility and judgment is often more beneficial than beign rigid and less calculating.

I thought thought your favorite player for life was Mallett?

They are doing what smart organizations do by giving themselves options whether he remains on the roster or is traded. If they can get value for him on the trade market they can still fill the void with some top notch OT prospects in this year's draft. If a team makes a deal with them they can use a portion of that large cap space to replace him on the OL, but not necessarily at the LT position. In addition, if he is traded they will have a sizeable amount of cap space to use to address other positions on the roster. They are exercising some foresight and flexibility with respect to their roster and cap situation. That is a smart way to do business.

The following attachment is a comparison of Geno Smith to Nassib by Greg Cossell of NFL network. I have a very high regard for Cossell who does a lot of video work evaluating players. I was very surprised that he rated Nassib a better prospect than Smith. More and more I'm leaning toward trading down and then getting the qb at a lower spot in the first round. http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-draft/0ap2000000152809/Cosell-rates-Nassib-higher-than-Geno-Smith

Is Robert Kraft going to spin the contract numbers to make it look as if he is not the bad guy in the Welker departure? Probably so. But the Pats are simply following a business model that has worked for them for a very long time. They are very cautious about giving out big contracts to veteran players who they believe are on the downside of their careers. They have a history of letting long term players such as Seymore. Milloy, Bledsoe. Dion Branch etc.go, especially when an extended rich contract is desired by the affected player. New England is one of the most successful franchises in the NFL. They have their own way in evaluation players. They also have a very hardnosed approach to neogtiating contracts. Welker was probably very accurate in describing the Pats as being non yielding in negotiations. Their approach is far different from the losing Bills. They would never have given a player such as Kelsay or Fitz the kind of contracts they garnerd under Nix.They have a much better understanding of the relationship between value and talent than the Bills do. Without queston there is a very irritating arrogance to the way the Patriot organization is run. They are in the business to make money and to win games. Whether you like them or not you have to give them their due for their consistent level of success done in a financially responsible way.

If Geno Smith is off the board and Barkley and Manuel are left when our turn comes up which qb does Buddy select? If Chan Gailey was still the HC I would guess that Manuel would be selected because he is more athletic. With Marrone and his west coast offense I would think that Barkley would be the selection. I'm not sure what Nix's philosophy is with respect to the qb position? Is Barkley more likely to be a Brees type qb or a Pennington type cb? Does Manuel in the long run have more upside? I strongly suspect that if Nix selects a qb in the first round that he is going to get immediate playing time. Does that factor in a Barkley selection because he is more prepared to play sooner? Not easy decisions. Very tough calls. Nix put himself in this very difficult position by not addressing the issue sooner. It would be interesting to know how much influence other members of the organization such as Whaley and Marrone have in the decision Maybe Nix will surprise us and not draft a qb in the first round? A good case can be made for a dynamic defensive player.

It the front office has a strong conviction that Manuel is their franchise qb of the future then they shouldn't risk trading down. There is simply a number of teams that are searching for their own franchise qb prospect. The risk isn't only from teams drafting ahead of you but also from teams drafting after you that could maneuver back up to draft before you do. However, if there is a cluster of qbs such as Barkley, Wilson, Manuel, Glennon and Bray that you closely rank then it might be worth the risk. Buddy Nix has a tendency to play it safe and not risk losing his favored player with a draft down maneuver. In this year's draft with a high priority placed on the qb position his conservative approach might be the right approach to take.

They all represent a legacy of mediocrity.

Doug Whaley is not an unknown quantity. He has been with the franchise for three years. Brandon has taken over for the franchise from the ailing owner. Without a doubt he has worked with him or at least closely observed how he operates He must have been impressed with him because he extended his contract. This wasn't a Wilson extension, it was a Brandon extension. There are many assumptions being made about Nix's status. Does he currently have the same level of authority? Is he being forced to be more collaborative with the way he makes decisions? The HC hire didn't seem to be the type of hire he would make. None of us really know how much he was involved in that crtical decision. There is a lot of speculation that Nix will be leaving the organization after this draft. But we don't know for sure if that is true or not. Sometimes when an organization is opaque you can only make educated guesses based on what it does and not what it says. All we know for sure is that Whaley's contract has been extended.We also know there has been no sign prior to the extension that he had any interest in any other openings. That indicates to me that his authority has been enhanced and that in the near future (possibly after this draft) he will be the new GM. Speculating on an organizaton that has often defied logic is a challenging endeavor. However, I get a sense that since the mercurial owner is not involved with the business the decisions coming out of OBD will be less erratic and a tad bit more rational.

The overarching problem for the Nix reign is not its draft strategy. The core problem is his ability to evaluate players per se. Buddy has clearly stated that he prefers sticking to his draft turn because he is not willing to gamble with losing his player (as you noted). Whether one agrees with that approach or not there is at least a logic to it. The only time I recall Nix maneuvering in the draft is when he made the small maneuver of trading up for T.J. Graham, a player many people believed would have been available at a lower draft round. Does it make sense for a team with so many holes to trade down and acquire more picks? Absolutely. But when your GM has a very limited comfort zone is it smart to ask him to act outside of his his abilities? Do you expect someone who is not a strategic thinker to behave strategically? When Ralph Wilson selected Nix to be his GM he got what he selected i.e. a person with a simplistic outlook for a multi-faceted and complex job. Ralph Wilson selecting an ill-equipped candidate to run his billion dollar business is not a surprise, it is the norm for this odd owner. There is a number of different philosophies to building a successful franchise. Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New England, San Fran, NY Giants have different approaches to roster building. However, the underpinning to their successes is the same. Each of these organizations has a high level of ability to evaluate players. That is what is lacking for this franchise located in western NY.

The last time he won a bid for a franchise was for the Redskins. The league denied his bid because he had a history of suing everyone he bumped into. When his bid was denied he sued another bidder. He is one of those thugish business people who sues you not only to win but to destroy you. The league was very smart in keeping this lone ranger out of their club.

I'm very confident that the Bills will be signing some additional free agent that will help to fill out the roster. It takes a little fortitude to be patient but the worst thing the for front office could do is to feel pressure that they are being left out of the market and force a number of bad player purchases. There is still plenty of time to add pieces. They key for success for this franchise, as it is for every successful franchise, is the draft. If we come out of this draft with a legitimate franchise qb prospect then the dynamics change for the better for this bediviled (done by its own ineptitude) franchise. There is no secret about our organization's focus on getting a qb prospect out of this draft. I wish the urgency for a qb search would have happened sooner, but you can only act from where you are and not from where you wish you were. The key to the success for any franchise is by being competent on a daily basis. Offseason big ticket splashers rarely correlate with in-season success. The Skins are a prime example of that. Even their owner has learned that his extravagant "big ticket" approach has brought him little success on the field. Under Shanahan the old way has been jettisoned for his more value calculation approach to its transactions.

Bill, Fans have been so battered that everything that is done is seen through the prism of the painful prior years. Every transaction such as the hiring of the HC doesn't mean that it is a failed decision before it is has been allowed to perform. Will Marrone be a successful HC? I don't know. But especially on the defensive side he seems to have hired a credible staff. Marrone hired Hackett, a young coach, who worked with him at Syracuse. Is it another example of stutlfying cornyism or is he hiring a good young OC who has refreshing ideas instead of the old guard rigid approach to play calling and offensive concepts? To put it very mildly I have little reagard for Nix as a GM. It didn't take long to realize that he is ill-equipped for the job. But even with my very critical view of him as a GM so far this offseason he has made a lot of right moves. It seems every transaction was sensible, such as releasing Barnett, Wilson, Nelson, Jones, resigning of McKelvin and allowing Levitre to go due to cap and contract reasons. I'm certainly not suggesting that there have been any dramatic changes made by the front officee, but what I am saying is that they are doing things the right way. The franchise is acting in a more professional and less mercurial manner. So far they haven't made a T.O. type marketing decision to substitute for a smart personnel decision. Will the Bills be a playoff team next year? Let's not get silly. There is no quick fix for this hole filled roster. What I'm addressing here in this post has more to do with process than it does with players. If this franchise functions as a more normal and stable franchise instead of a franchise that panics and goes back and forth in philosophy and staffing then eventually things will work out. The attached link is a commentary from a writer from Grantland talking to John Murphy on WGR. He is basically saying that the Bills and other smart franchises are taking the right approach toward free agency while the other frenzied franchises might not be taking the smartest approach toward the free agent market. http://audio.wgr550.com/a/72117277/john-murphy-interview-with-bill-barnwell.htm

Keen observation. What you are basically saying is that he is a better passer than a thrower.Having a great gun doesn't necessarily translate into being a good qb. If that was the case JaMarcuss Russell would still be in the league. The best current example of a qb with great intangibles and average physicall traits is Drew Brees. He is short and not the most gifted athlete. After his career is over he will be up at the podium in Canton for his induction. He was drafted at the top of the second round. I disagree with the people who are making the claim that this draft class doesn't have good qb prospects. Without a doubt this class doesn't have the recognized elite prospect such as Luck and RGIII, but it does has a number of secondary tier qb prospects who are capable of being good franchise qbs. If Nix's first preference for a qb is taken, such as Geno Smith, there are still very good alternative qb selections that could turn out to be a sterling selection.

The attached linked is from a WGR radio interview with Mike Pettine. He talked about the Lawson signing and how he will be used. After listening to him you come away noting that he and his staff have a much more sophisticated view in managing a defense than the prior staff did. http://audio.wgr550.com/a/72050511/3-14-bills-dc-mike-pettine-reviews-manny-lawson-bills-lingering-defensive-needs.htm

Whether he was considered a first or second round pick is not very important. It's a miniscule point that isn't worth the bother of parsing. My basic point is that you can get a very impactful qb not near the top of the draft. During his draft year a number of scouts pointed out that Brees had some liabilities such as arm strength, height and athleticism. It took him a couple or few years to really play well. Sometimes evaluators make the mistake of focusing too much on what a player can't do rather than what he can do. What I'm underscoring is that unless you actually make the effort to take a talent even with warts you will never have the talent that got away to other more willing active teams. With all the criticism that Nix has taken for not drafting a legitimate qb prospect (Levi Brown certainly shouldn't count) I get the sense that Nix is very determined to take a qb in the first or second round this year. I also get the sense that Nix understands that he made a mistake in not taking the plunge on prospect/prospects that were available to him in last year's draft. If he had it to do over I suspect he would have selected either Russell Wilson or Kirk Cousins with his third round pick.

I don't want to quibble but Brees was a second round selection. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drew_Brees I agree with you that Ozzie is one of the best GMs in the business. I'm sure you recall when they drafted Kyle Boller, a "golden armed" qb. That didn't work out. When he later selected Flacco he did it by trading back into the first round to get him. As you have clearly pointed out even eagle eyed talent evaluators don't know for sure how a qb prospect is going to turn out. That is a prime reason that you have to be aggressive and persistent in bringing prospects on board.

Drew Brees is another non first round draft pick (top of second) who had questions about his height. My point is that you don't have to have the top pick or near the top pick to come up with a quality qb prospect. Drew Brees is not tall and he is not mobile in the sense that he tucks the ball and runs across the line of scrimmage.Coming out of college there were even questions about his arm strength. Someday he is going to be inducted in the HOF. You are right that Dalton might not be a "special" type of qb but he certainly is a legitimate starting qb. There is a chance that he can still get better and upgrade his rankings. My general point is that waiting for the "prize" qb catch when your team consistently ranks in the lower middle of the pack doesn't guarantee that you will be in a position to draft a Luck or RGIII type of talent. If your scouts have a "keen" eye for talent other very worthwhile qb prospects can be had, more likely, in the second round. Who is to say that the so-called second tier qbs such as Glennon, Wilson, Bray, Landry Jones etc won't eventually be better qbs than the top tier qbs? What I do know for sure is that sitting on your hands with respect to drafting qbs gets you no where good.