JohnC

What I find intriguing (confounding) about the franchise sale is how is it going to be auctioned? Is it a one bid auction with the winner being the highest bidder? Can a bidder increase his/her bid after the first bid? Does the seller "board" review all the bids and then make their selection, regardless if it is the highest bid or not? Can the seller go to a (preferable) lower bidder and suggest a higher bid in order to win the auction? What's remarkable about the process is that the Wilson estate has decided to have a private process with stipulations that guarantee the privacy of the process. Any group that attempts to publicly disclose the franchise's financial records will be sabotaging their efforts. That is why a Trump bidding group has (in my view) little chance to be a serious candidate in this franchise sale. You can't have a private and dignified process when an obnoxious self-promoting person such as Trump is involved. As many others have stated Pegula seems to fit the profile of the type of person Ralph Wilson would want to pass the mantel of ownership to. There are no guarantees but things seem to be leaning toward a Pegula owned franchise. I would be ecstatic if that would come to fruition.

The attached link is a WGR interview with Jon Jaworski. He commented on EJ, Watkins and Jon Bon Jovi. His strong endorsement of Jon Bon Jovi, a business partner of his, was very interesting. http://audio.wgr550.com/a/93750798/6-30-ron-jaworski-on-wgr.htm

Some people interpret a success a failure; while others interpret a failure a success. In other words beauty is in the eyes of the beheholder.

Big Apple Bill, CBiscuit97 brings up a terrific point on how the youthful OC bungled the offense. I thought it was outright asinine to initially install a hurry up offense when his starting qb was a raw rookie who didn't even have the benefit of an extensive preseason due to a knee injury. Common sense would have indicated that a slower paced offense would have been more appropriate for the situation he was confronted with. As the season advanced Hackett was smart enough to tame his instincts and slow the pace down. Hackett's approach to Spiller was very perplexing to me. It seemed that his strategy was to run Spiller inside and play the odds that he would eventually break through a non-existent hole or bounce off for a big play. Instead of using plays where CJ had space (screensand short passing plays) the OC took an approach of fitting a round peg in a square hole. I'm not placing all the blame or even the preponderence of our offensive struggles on the OC who had to work with inexperienced qbs and a sub par OL. But where I criticize him is that he wasn't too accomplished in placing whatever assets he had on offense and putting them in the best position to succeed. His approach was in stark contrast to Pettine, a more experience pro coach, who put his players, including his rotational players, in the positions where they were most suited to succeed. This season Hackett has two sparkling athletes in Spiller and Watkins who can do wonders with the ball when they have a little room. Let's see if the OC knows how to maxize their talents??

I don't understand the harsh response to Esmonde. He isn't advocating on behalf of a small faction of the population, he is simply an early voice reflecting what a large portion of the region believes in. His view not only might not be a minority view but it miaght a majority view. His basic opinion is that it is not wise from a economic and fairness standpoint to use a large amount of public funds to enhance the business of billionaires. That isn't a radical notion and it isn't simply a parochial notion. It's a prevailing position all over the country. I want a new stadium built somewhere in the city, preferably in the outer harbor area. So I'm not coming to this discussion from an anti-stadium perspective. But until we know who the owner is and how much he/she is willing to contribute to the project then things are on hold. Golisano has made some statements that indicated he doesn't see the need for a brand new facility. The Lt. Governor on WGR stated that the current stadium with an upgrade is more than suitable. What happens if Tannebaum from Toronto wins the bid and makes it clear that he has little interest in contributing to a new stadium on the U.S.side of the border? A new stadium proposal is not only a financial issue it is a political issue. And it should be! Mr. Esmonde asked a lot of questions that made a lot of the advocates nervous. It is up to the advocates to demonstrate to the skeptics that a new stadium project is feasible on a variety of levels. If Esmonde made provoked a lot of questions about the stadium issue then he was properly doing his job.

Which players after the first two picks do you believe will be starters this year? I don't see any. That is not to say that they weren't good picks at the point they were drafted. As I stated in the prior post Henderson was off the draft boards for many teams. He was a seventh round selection by the Bills. This multiple drug suspended college player tested positive for drugs at the combine. In the last OTAs this seventh round player missed the first day of this OTAs session because of travel complications. If Henderson makes the practice squad I will be very happy. If Henderson makes the roster I will be pleasantly surprised. With respect to Da'Rick Rogers (an undrafted free agent) he got cut because he was simply beaten out by other fringe receivers.

Let's not get carried away here. Fluker was a top tier prospect in last year's draft who played up to his high draft status. Henderson who was off most teams draft boards was picked by the Bills in the 7th round. That surely isn't an indication of a high level of confidence being placed on him succeeding in the league. SH admitting to his drug issues is not necessarily a step in the right direction because every team already knew that he was suspended three times for the same type of drug infraction. The Bills weren't the only team he interviewed with; many other teams also interviewed him. Apparently they didn't find him convincing enough to waste a low round on him. That in itself is very telling. In the latest OTA session that just concluded Henderson missed the first session because he had travel problems. That certainly isn't a good way to make a good impression on your prospective employer. If Henderson is able to earn a practice squad spot I will consider the late round pick a success story. If he makes the regular roster I will be pleasantly surprised. Last year many people got excited by the free agent draftee, Da'Rick Rogers, who also had a troubled college career. There are plenty of prospects with an abundance of physical talents who fail because they lack the character and discipline necessary to play in this challenging sport.

The conclusions you draw from the major leap forward in the team's winning record is much different than my conclusions. If you take CM off last year's roster the Panther's 12-4 record would be in the range of 7-9 to 8-8 at best. On that issue the both of us are venturing opinions that can't be proved. I don't want to come off as being self-serving (arrogant) but I am very confident that Newton is the most impactful player on their roster and the main reason why the team's record took a dramatic leap forward compared to when he was not on the roster. The team's record was 2-14 prior to him joining the team progressing to 12-4 with him as the starting qb. I attribute most of that positive development to him, you don't We'll simply respectfully disagree on that point. You bring out an interesting issue (probably unintentional) un in your Losman comparison. Without intending to make my point you are actually reinforcing what I and many others have been trying to say. You simply don't know if a prospect with tools will translate those assets to the pro game. That is what we are watching to find out. It wasn't conclusively evident that Losman was going to be a failure during his rookie year. He had encouraging moments where one thought we finally found our qb. It became apparent that after a few years that it wasn't going to materialize. What it comes down to is that I'm willing to wait longer than you are to see if Manuel is capable of being a starter. While you already want to go on to the next option I at this point don't. That's the issue where only time will tell.

For versatility Sammy Davis Jr. Michael Jackson is in the same mold as a singer and dancer.

What this franchise doesn't need is another change in regimes, regardless how the team performs. It is very apparent that the staff recognized the OL deficiency because they brought in a veteran free agent guard and they used three draft choices on O-linemen. I thought it was a mistake for Marrone to select the inexperienced Hackett to be his OC. I would have preferred Marrone selecting a more experienced OC and hired Hackett as a qb coach. Also, not having a veteran qb on the roster who could have served as a mentor to EJ would have been a smart move. It is still early to make fair judgments but I like Whaley a lot and I thought the Marrone hire was a good hire. Time will tell.

Sometimes when one is pursuing a rigorous analysis of a player in a team sport the statistics don't necessarily reflect the caliber of a performance due to the talent level of the rest of the team. Very often the statistics for a qb are less meaningful when the qb is playing behind a very poor OL. Newton's receiver corps was below average. That certainly is a factor not reflected in passing statistics. The Panthers were a 2-14 team prior to his acquistion. A few years later the team made the playoffs with a 12-4 record. If he wasn't the most instrumental player for the turn around then tell me who was? From a bandwith approach to evaluating qb prospects Ponder should be coming into his own as a starter. The reality is that he is at best a pedestrian player. From a bandwith approach to evaluating qb prospects Newton should be a dismal failure. That has not been the case. As many others have stated the Bills knew what they were getting when they drafted Manuel. He was a raw qb with physical tools and admirably character traits. Will he develop into a good franchise qb? Although I think so I'm not willing to make a declarative judgment on that issue at this early juncture. The success of this team is mostly based on how he performs. I'm willing to wait a little longer than you are before I go on to the next option.

Cam Newton was the first pick in his draft year. The Bills would have gladly taken him with their high first round pick if he were available. My point is that many evaluators had him at the top or near the top of their draft board even though he didn't fit your mold of being a conventional qb. I very much understand that he doesn't fit your cerebral qb profile. My response is so what? My criticism of your forcefully clinging to the necessity of possessing certain qb traits is not that you are wrong but that you are limiting yourself to a particular type of traits in predicting success. If you want a statistical rebutal I'll give you the most meaningful statistic not only in the NFL but in all sports i.e. the record. The year before Newton was drafted Carolina had a 2-14 record, qualifying them for the first pick in the next draft. In his rookie year the team went 6-10. The next year they went 7-9. Last year Carolina went 12-4 and made the playoffs. Regardless of what metric you use you can't deny that CM was the most instrumental player for that turnaround. In his three years of play are you going to deny the fact that he has markedly improved? The Bills' organization made a decision to invest in a raw prospect that they felt had the potential to be a franchise qb. I recognize that he isn't the type of qb you would invest in. I understand your stance. It is not an unreasonable position to take. Where I strenuously disagree (respectfully) with your take on this issue is that because you are rigidly adhering to your profile stance you are then declaring the qb a failure before allowing the prospect a reasonable period of time to develop. I think that Manuel is going to be a legitimate franchise qb. Am I sure of it? No. My main concern has to do with his level of accuracy, an issue that you highlighted. As I said in other posts this is going to be a very telling year in determining whether EJ has what it takes to be a starter. What I'm not going to do is make a declaration based on a preconceived notion on what a qb should look like. In my view there are a lot of different types of qb that can be successful. On this issue you are unnecessarily limiting yourself. The toolbox that you are carrying needs to be enlarged.

Sometimes adhering to a preconceived position can get awkward. It is better to make a judgment on a book after it is read rather than make a judgment after the first chapter.

You make a great point. Hackett himself was learning on the job. And as you stated our OL was less than stellar. There shouldn't be any surprise that three draft picks were used on the OL and one of our main free agent acquisitions was a guard. As many others have pointed out the original plan was to bring in a veteran qb, Kolb, and have EJ learn from him. Kolb got hurt. So the rookie's timetable was accelerated. His situation certainly wasn't favorable for instant success. My position on Manuel is that I simply don't know if he is going to be a good starting qb in this league. I think he will be. Although I'm not sure about him what I can say for sure is that people who are with conviction making a judgment on him are making a mistake, whether one is taking a positive or negative view.

There isn't a serious football person in the pro ranks who wouldn't conclude either with or without the support of exotic statistical measures that Newton isn't a legitimate franchise qb while Fitz coming out of college and with a decade's worth of NFL experience is nothing but a marginal qb. At best he is an adequate backup, regardless if he is starting. Fitz playing at his optimal level is not going to have a major impact on the team he plays for. If Fitz is your starter I guarantee you that the team he is playing for is going to be an inconsequential team. Both Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers support my point that it is a mistake to make immediate judgments on qbs based on their early play.If I'm not mistaken Rodgers sat on the bench for three or four years before he took over the reins at qb. Also, Brees struggled with his play and with injuries in his first few years. Why do you think the Chargers drafted Eli/Rivers? My point is that you have to give allowances for development. EJ Manuel was not a high first round pick. The team traded down to get him in the middle of the first round. He was drafted at that position because he was an unpolished pro prospect with great tools and intangibles. This staff had a clear understanding that there was a lot of work to be done in developing him. As I stated in the prior post this is going to be a telling year. Not because he is going to be a finished product this year because he won't be, but because we will have a better grasp as to whether he has the potential to be a legitimate franchise qb. My main point in this discourse (which I appreciate) is that one can make a big mistake when one makes a snap judgment on a qb prospect.

The reason why EJ didn't exhibit the "bandwith" traits that you believe are a necessity for success in the pro game is that his offense in college was, as most college offenses are, a more simplistic one or two read offense. Cam Newton was the first pick in his draft year. Based on your "bandwith" standard you would have disqualified him as a good prospect. No pro coach or scout is going to attribute a high level of bandwith to Newton. Yet, as a young qb he has been a resounding success. How do you square that with your ironclad standard? There was a number of questions regarding Kaepernick's style of play in college. There were also questions about his mechanics (as you noted). Yet the 49ers moved up in the second round to take him at the expense of the Raiders who were going to take him in the second round. Keapernick had impressive tools and a strong work ethic. He was drafted on potential. The point I'm making is just because a qb prospect isn't a finished product coming out of college that doesn't mean that the prospect can't develop into a quality franchise qb. Kaepernick mostly sat on the bench in his rookie year. The longstanding criticism I have in your evaluations of qb prospects is that you are uncompromisingly chasing a dream prospect that rarely exists. The Andrew Luck type of prospect who fullfills your "gold plated bandwith standard" come along once in a generation. On top of that when they do come along you have to be the first team drafting to acquire this dream boat prospect. My advice to you (frequently given) is don't out of hand dismiss EJ or any other qb prospect because the player doesn't fit into your preferred mold. There are a variety of styles of qb play that can be successful. Roethlisberger/Brees/Brady/Newton/Favre etc play different styles. There is nothing wrong or unusual with young qbs struggling on the field. That's simply the norm. Before you make any declarative statements on EJ I suggest that you wait and see how he plays this year. Then I will be more receptive to your clarion calls of failure before the fact.

There is no doubt that Drew Brees was an accomplished pocket passer in college. His offense in college was a pro style offense. But it is unfair to criticize EJ as not being a good pocket qb in college. If you are going to reject EJ's prospects as a franchise qb based on his college game then you should do the same for Kaepernick, Cam Newton and Griffin. All three of these very talented pro qbs ran a run and gun style of offense that is problematic when transferred to the pro game. I have had this discussion with you befoe (apologize for the repetition) but you have to expand your preferable style of qb play when predicting the success of a young qb. You need to carry a larger tool box because there is a variety of tools (style of play} that work in the NFL EJ Manuel was never going to be an instant success because he simply wasn't prepared for the pro game. The organization found a qb prospect who had physical tools and a stellar character and work ethic. Our coaching staff and scouting staff knew what they were getting and what it would take to develop him. I hate when people use the word that it is a process but it is the best word to usewhen describing the development of this young qb. This is going to be a very telling season for EJ. He had a full off-season and he is healthy. I think he is going to be a legitimate franchise qb. Will he be an upper tier qb? I doubt it. My major concern with him is his accuracy. I'm going to be patient in my assessment of him because I have no other choice.

As others noted what we do know is that the way the lease was structured it favored keeping the franchise local. As K-9 indicated the way the trustee vote was configured it also did tilt the process toward keeping the franchise local. What I have brought up on this topic is that there is still some vulnerability to the area's team if a situation arises similar to the Clipper situation where a bidder dramatically overbids from a rational economic standpoint just for the sake of joining the exclusive ownership club. There are people who possess an unimaginable amount of money who simply don't care about western NY. What happens if a bidder with intentions to move the franchise bids in the $2.5 B range and the next highest local bidder is $1.25 B range? Are you sure who the trustees are going to select?

You very much know that I have been a harsh critic of Ralph Wilson from a football standpoint. But to be fair to him the way the lease was structured and the way the trustee vote was set up it tilted the balance toward keeping the franchise in the region. (As you stated.) It's my opinion that Ralph Wilson isn't the most astue football person. On the other hand he is a wily if not brlliant business person. He protected his interests yet he worked out a deal that dramatically increased the chances that the franchise will remain in the area. For that he should be saluted.

I agree with you that the chances for the team remaining in the area increased once the terms of the lease were made public. In addition serious bidders such as Golisano and Pegula made it apparent that they were seriously interested in purchasing the franchise. The way the lease was structured it tilted the economics of the purchase toward keeping the team local.

How you do know what is in the trust? It has not been made public.

I applaud you for your knowledge on the economics of professional sports. However, in your responses toward my comments you haven't factored in the additional costs of a new facility or in a major upgrade of the current facility. If that is the case we are looking at a new owner's cost of nearly $2B or so depending on the level of support a new owner will be expected to contribute to a facility . I'm not trying to be a pessimist in this franchise auction that seems to be moving forward very rapidly. As you are well aware of there is a lot of maneuvering going around behind the scenes that could change the dynamic of the situation and result in an unexpected outcome. Very often in these high profile and very enormous and complicated transactions the deal is consummated not by the noisey suitors but with the discreet serious bidder. (Pegula fits that discription.)

Where I disagree with you is on the issue of valuations and pricing. Outside analysts do their best in examining cash flows, debt servicing, potential revenue etc. It means little if someone doesn't care about buying a sports franchise for financial reasons. To put it simply a franchise is worth whatever anyone is willing to pay for it, whether it is a financially rational or not. The financial firm that is helping the Wilson estate with the sale is not only concerned with the value of the franchise and making the arrangements for the sale they are also as part of their job seeking potential buyers. If there is a buyer who simply wants to raise their public profile by being a member of a special club regardless what the $$$ numbers indicate the buyer is going to make the buy. The most influential factor that will keep the Bills in the region is the lease deal. The people who negotiated it on behalf of the public did an exceptional job of leveraging their negotiating position to help buyers interested in the franchise keep it in the area for the near future. My preference is for Pegula to buy the franchise. He has clearly demonstrated by his already significant investments that he wants to keep this franchise anchored in this community. Things seem to be moving in a positive direction but we really don't know what is going on behind the scenes and who is jockeying for position to win the auction. With respect to the Clippers they have a horrible lease deal at Staples Center that limits their revenue potential. The lease expires next year. Don't be surprised if the franchise is moved to Anaheim with a much better lease and revenue deal. Getting rid of the stench of the Sterling ownership will also add value to the product. My point is very simple. Sometimes it is not about making more money. There are a select few that have so much of it it becomes meaningless. For some people it has more to do with joining an exclusive club and raising one's profile. That is the point I was trying to make in my response to Kirby Jackson.

The Clippers' situation has little to do with being a rational business deal that was capable of being be a self-sustaining transaction, let alone be profitable. Ballmer, the prospective buyer, is worth $20 B or more. He wanted an NBA franchise and he was determined to procure one even if it made no business sense. There was one story circulating that he told Sterling's wife (seller of the franchise) that no matter what anyone else's bid was from he was willing to pay $200 M more. There is no possible way that the Clippers could generate enough money and adequate cash/flow to sustain a $2 B deal. So the solultion for for someone who is in the wealthy stratosphere is simply to sell off a small portion of his assets and buy the team with his own cash. My point is that for a very select few who are at the top of the financial pyramid some deals are not about money. It is about someone wanting to enter the exclusive ownership "club" even if it doesn't make any financial sense. Ballmer tentatively bought the Clippers for at least double the evaluation. Could that same scenario play out with the Bills? Absolutely. Do you think that the Wilson estate would scoff a wealthy hedge fund manager or Canadian buyer who wanted to pay double what the franchise would be worth out of loyalty to a region they don't reside in?

From a planning and visionary standpoint the biggest mistake NYS made was building the main UB campus in the suburb, Amherst. I thinkthe mistake has by consensus been recognized. The medical school is going to be located downtown in close proximity to the medical coorridor. As the critical mass of development and residency occurs downtown transportation decisions, rail lines, buses etc will be made to accelerate the pace of growth. The developers in the area are getting projects done. Developers such as Rocco Termini and Paladino (not a fan of his pugnacious style)are are tough minded businessmen who are investing in the community and the future because they believe it will be profitable. That in itself is a good sign. A lot of people are very critical of the city government. It very often gets ridiculed. However, the one thing that it has done that it doesn't get credit for is not standing in the way and hindering projects from getting started and completed. One developer, Hamster, praised the city of Buffalo as being a welcoming Mecca for projects while scathingly criticizing Niagra Falls, city and county, for sabotaging efforts of developers. I'm a Terry Pegula fan not so much as he is a benevolent owner of sport???? franchises. It is what he is doing as a developer. He is taking the initiative to invest his money in projects that serve the community and in the end will make him a ton of money. More power to him. If he can win the bid for the football franchise I see future projects spinning off of the team (multi-purpose facility} that will accelerate the development of the downtown and waterfront area. The best indication that the momentum has turned is when a number of smaller projects are getting done by a number of people. An example of that is this restaurant project by Termini in an area of town that is increasingly being populated. http://buffalorising.com/2014/03/termini-plans-genesee-street-restaurant/