JohnC

I didn't say he would be a star. That's your inaccurate characterization. What I did say is that I believe that he would be a better qb than TT.

Terrific analysis and post. You and a few other draftniks here are illuminating. You sparkle! Creative and imaginative organizations find a way to get a necessary deal done. Dullard and sluggish organizations don't. This is a situation where a medium trade down would be a wise strategy to take. Working the board smartly and calculating risks takes a talent that this organization hasn't too often exhibited.

Where we disagree is that I don't see TT being able to run the Patriot offense while Garop has demonstrated that he can. In that respect it's not even a close call. The reality is that the GM that TT is currently playing for didn't even want him on the team. The situation certainly does impact the choice between TT and Brissett on a roster such as the Patriots. If TT wouldn't even be a third string qb for them because of the cost/benefit ratio. A factor that is considered for all player decisions in the NFL. You may not be sure that TT is better than Garop but I am. Garop is better at reading defenses and is a better short to medium range passer. TT is superb with the long ball. In my mind he is in the top 20% when he flings it deep with a nice touch.

Is he worth a second round pick? Would he be there in the second round?

Stats are meaningless unless seen in context. The Pats ranked third in points for and ranked first in points against. Their record for the season was 14-2 and they won the SB. Some of the local fans are chortling as if their team accomplished something with an offense that excelled in rushing and had a passing game that ranked near the bottom. What do the stats reveal when all is said and done if the team's record is 7-9 and again the team hasn't made the playoffs for the 17th consecutive year? And by the way the system is designed for parity! Even with TT's diminished contract the Pats wouldn't be foolish enough from a cost/benefit standpoint have him on their roster as a third string qb. As a Patriot he wouldn't be able to win the backup job against Garop. It may seem that I am bashing TT but I'm really not. We are fortunate to have him as our bridge qb. My seemingly negative view about him relates to him as our long-term franchise qb. I simply don't see him fulfilling that role. My contention is until that position is upgraded the Bills will never be a serious team.

There is a distorting effect when you examining the numbers of a player playing on a good team compared to playing on a bad team. The numbers don't necessarily reflect the talent. A top shelf player's stats such as Boston Jack's numbers are not as high because so many of his terrific passes aren't converted. Risto was not playing with a good unit. He got more ice time than he should have (as you noted). In addition, the forwards were not always responsible in their defensive responsibilities which reflects back to the defensemen. Risto is not only our best defenseman on our team he is also one of the better young and upcoming defensemen in the game. Scotty Bowman recently raved about him on WGR. As far as I am concerned he is one of the few anchor players on this team. This isn't the type of player you consider trading as much as he is the type of player you build around.

I agree. But that's right now. Over time that might not be the case. If Brisset can demonstrate that he can run a full range offense that sentiment will change. Go back and read my response. I said that I believe Brisset has more potential upside. And I firmly stand by my claim that no team would take TT over Grapo.

I not only now openly say that I admire the way the Pats run their football operation I have said it in the past. I have also expressed on many occasions my disdain for how the Bills have run their football operation. Hopefully that will change for the better. But as I said on other occasions any franchise that hires Rex Ryan to be their HC forfeits it right to be taken seriously. I'm also hoping that getting rid of that obnoxious fool augurs more positive things to come.

I answered this question in another post. TT took a major cut in his contract and a change of terms that essentially made it a one year contract. If TT knew that there was interest in him from other teams with better terms do you think he would have agreed to the restructuring of his contract? If you don't believe that his agent was scouting the market even while under contract then you are naive. Brisset was playing with a broken finger when he played against us. Would I take Brisset over TT as a long term qb? Absolutely! I believe he has more upside. I have seen enough of TT to make a judgment. If you come to another judgment that's fine. With respect to the highlighted area I do admire the Patriot operation. Over the past generation they have been the most successful franchise. Over the same period of time Buffalo has been one of the least successful franchises. I don't admire how they have operated. If you do that is fine.

There is not one team in this league who would take TT over Grapolo. Not one! If you think otherwise then so state it. There wasn't a team in this league that indicated that they were willing to match his original contract with the Bills to entice him to their team. There are multiple teams that are interested in trading for Grapolo. What's obvious is obvious. I don't hate Tyrod. We are fortunate to have him. But I consider him nothing but a bridge qb. And the contract he currently has indicates the same. The Pats are far from being an infallible team but they are certainly the most successful team in the league over the past generation with five SB rings. The Bills have not made the playoffs in 18 consecutive years. It's easy to come to a conclusion that they run a more successful operation. You can make excuses as to why that is but the record is the reality. You can "what if" yourself to exhaustion but that is not going to alter the record.

Steve Young on more than a few occasions talked about the Patriots and said that what sets them apart from the rest of the league isn't that their talent level is much greater as it is their level of their sophisticated thinking and preparation. You are not going to be a slouch and sleep in meetings and remain on the team. The clip you attached was revealing and representative of how detailed Brady and the coach are in their preparation. This was an end of the day meeting where Brady goes into minute detail how to counter a defensive player. If you noticed BB wrote down the suggestion offered by the qb. This clip demonstrated how reckless and foolish the Rex hiring was.

Any one who isn't a fool recognizes that Brady is the primary reason why the Pats have been overall the best team for a generation. But certainly not the only reason. What's the point of arguing "what if" they didn't have him? They do have him and not only have had him for a generation but also will have him for at least the next few years. And by the way their backup qb is better than our starter, and their third string qb probably has more upside than our starter. Acknowledging the reality of the situation the next obvious question is how does one go about beating the most successful franchise in the game or for the better teams in the league? It certainly isn't done with one of the lowest rated passing offenses in the game. For the past generation the Pats have beaten us nearly 90% of the time. Not having upper tier qbing is not the only reason why this team has done poorly but it is a major reason. Too many people are making the argument that if you address one side of the ball you are not addressing the other side of the ball. I disagree with that premise. The Bills currently have a respectable bridge qb on the roster so this is a good time to get a good prospect on the roster to develop. If you want to beat good teams, which the Bills have a dismal record against, you have to have a higher level of play from the qb position then we have had. That's the reality of the NFL of today. If your highest aspiration is to be a fringe wild-card contending team then TT is more than adequate. If you have a higher aspiration to be a seriously contending team then you need to substantially improve the quality of play from that position.

I appreciate the information.

There are games where TT will sparkle. But those intermittent quality efforts don't reflect his standard performance. He throws a beautiful long ball. But he is not naturally accurate and isn't a rhythm passer who can hit the seams and consistently make the tight throws. For those who believe TT is a legitimate franchise qb I challenge the loyalists to compare his game to passers who are in the top third of the rankings. There is a qualitative difference to their respective game that isn't always captured by the stats but is clearly evident when watching the games. I have never argued that TT isn't an adequate qb. Because he is. However, for me that is not good enough. Until the caliber of our qbing is elevated this team is at best a middle of the pack type team, a category that applies to 50-70% of the teams. Because of the cap all teams have to contend with roster changes. It seems with Buffalo more than with most teams even when we make a good draft selection we seem to disproportionately lose those players when their first contract is up. Gilmore and Clements come to mind. As you indicated drafting well is the most cost effective and best approach to building a roster and responding the inevitable movement of players.

You pointed out something that isn't emphasized by many: This is a thin roster. With the lack of depth there is going to be a noticeable drop off when the reserves fill in. This team more so than most is counting on its running game. Teams are going to adjust to the imbalance in our offense. It's difficult for defenses to counter an offense that is spreading the ball around in the passing game. It is less difficult for a defense to adjust to a team that emphasizes the run game. It doesn't take much imagination to stack the defense to counter the run and force you to pass. I don't have the stats but our offense had to be near the top of the list for three and outs. You left out the OL when talking about units that are thin. Is Kujo coming back? Who is our RT? Two years ago Incognito was arguably one of the best guards in the league. Last year he was good but a lesser presence compared to his first year with us. How much is he going to decline as he gets older? If the Bills are 8-8 I will consider it a pleasant surprise. I'm hoping I'm wrong but I see this as a 6 to 7 win season with the ignominious streak in tact.

If you don't accept the fact that the Bills weren't going to keep him unless he agreed to the restructure that is your prerogative. It's telling to me, not necessarily to you, that he was willing to stay under a downsized contract with the Bills rather than seek better offers that didn't exist. No team was willing to give him a comparable contract that he originally had with the Bills. If he had an option to get the amount of money he had in his original contract with another team he wouldn't have restructured his contract. What team demonstrated a serious interest in him? You don't think that his agent wasn't doing his due diligence checking out the market? There were plenty of teams that had dire qb needs. None indicated to his agent that they were interested or at least at a price that was attractive to him.

No team was interested in him. He could have declined the re-structure and be freed from the organization. Or another way of looking at it if he didn't accept a downsizing restructure the organization would have let him go.

He's also one of the most charitable person in western NY.

Whaley has his faults but he is not a fool. Do you really believe that he would be so determined to get rid of TT if he felt that he was a legitimate franchise qb that could elevate this team into a contending team? Let's get serious. How many teams were willing to take TT this offseason even if it was only to be a bridge qb at a reasonable price? There were plenty of teams who were in a dire straight at the qb position but none of them made the purchase. Ask yourself why not? The organization halved his salary and structured his contract so that he could be let go after this season without much cap ramifications. That certainly doesn't indicate that his services are valued, especially on a long term basis. Unless it was a complete smokescreen the Bills put in more effort examining the crop of qbs than they have for a long time. Are they going to take a prospect with a high pick? Probably not. That's one of the primary reasons why this franchise has not been in the playoffs for a generation. You can cite all the statistics you want and interpret them the way you want. But watching the games it is starkly evident to me that the offense he runs from a passing standpoint is elementary. While you say it is due to coaching I say it is due to his glaring limitations.

What Kirby fails to see is even if TT throws more and accumulates better passing stats it still won't rise to the level of being good enough to seriously compete with playoff caliber teams. Anyone who has watched TT for the past two years recognizes the obvious: He can't throw the full repertoire of plays in the passing game. He also lacks a vision to run a sophisticated passing game that calls for progressions, seam throws, middle field throws and anticipatory throws. Too many people such as Kirby and others blame the coaches for their truncated offensive game plans. They are missing the mark with the direction of their critical arrows. The coaches were acting smartly in doing their best to work with the limitations that TT presented. TT is far from being a disastrous qb. That certainly would be an unfair characterization. But the inescapable truth is that the ceiling for his game is not good enough to rise to the level of directing this stuttering team to being anything better than average.. Some people are satisfied with that limited goal while I am not.

The stick-im gloves have taken away the authenticity of these fraudulent spectacular catches.

Guhle should be ready next year and Casey Nelson should be ready as a third or fourth pairing defenseman. Add in the Russian from the KHL then you start to have a reshaping of that unit. They still need to add in a mainstay caliber defenseman. I'm not sure what is going to happen with Kulikov who was plagued with injuries for most of the season. Terry Murray stated that he wasn't even sure that Kulikov wants to be here.

Terrific post. You are astute and perspicacious. When you are a new owner and it is new endeavor for you it is wise before being actively engaged with your new purchase to get input from as many people as possible outside of the lagging business that you are acquiring. There are plenty of successful people in the business whose thoughts and insights you can draw from. Ralph Wilson had an insular approach to running his business. It was very parochial and outdated and those flaws became more accentuated as the NFL changed. To a much lesser extent it seems that the Pegulas are being too insular with how they are running their businesses especially when critical hiring decisions are to be made. An egregious example of that was the hiring of Rex. This was a huckster who was run out of town of his last job and was well known for his lack of substance and depth. Relying on a person such as Brandon for advice was a stupendous mistake. That made no sense. As you stated I'm thankful to have the Pegulas involved as owners and appreciate their grand investment in the community. I just wish they would accelerate going through the learning curve and learn from their glaring mistakes.

When the misguided owner hired Rex he hurt Whaley's ability to fully act on his beliefs. That was a crippling decision for Whaley because Whaley accommodating and executing Rex's out-dated philosophy damaged not only the team's chances but also eroded his authority because of the faltering of the team he was presiding over. As I said in another post it's my sense that McDermott has the last say on personnel decisions. That's a shame because this year I believe that Whaley was ready to invest a first round pick on a qb while McDermott is less inclined to do so.

The scenario will be worked out prior to the draft. For the most part the two staffers have a good inkling who is going to be taken and what their options are prior to selection day. I don't believe that a qb will be taken in the first round. That's just the way it is when a long term downtrodden team is scrambling to be a marginal playoff contending team. Short term goals and small time aspirations.