2020 Our Year For Sure

Good catch! Derrick Harvey was the 8th pick, and he got $23M over 5 years, 17 guaranteed. And Jacksonville traded up into that spot last year, so clearly teams are willing to do it. Which is exactly why I think that if the Jags trade out, we probably won't have a deal available. There's never a whole long line of teams just aching to give you picks to move up. But it sounds like someone in the area of our pick is gonna have a chance to get a deal done, because teams want Sanchez. Really? 'Cause McShay explicitly said the Redskins are looking for a quarterback. Do you know something he doesn't?

I'll take your word for it that they haven't yet put together an overall strategy, but I've gotta think they've got an opinion (or a "grade") on all these players at this point. So assuming you're right, you can still learn something by hearing what Modrak has to say about individual players.

They say that now, but you know when the draft comes along our guy will suddenly be a reach because he was projected to go 5 spots later!

Well you're right Nanker, to an extent. Nobody is gonna trade up...to the top 5-6 spots. But after that the game is on. The contract we gave to McKelvin at #8 last year was very reasonable. Sanchez would get a bit more in that spot being a quarterback, but it would still be far from a deal-breaker. The enormous rookie salaries are a well-documented problem, but thinking it extends past the first handful of picks is a misconception. Something that could put a hitch in things is, as you mention, the package teams have to put together to move up. McShay said that according to the value chart, the Jets would have to give up their 2nd and 4th round picks to go from #17 to #8. Not sure what it would take for them to swap with us, maybe just the 2nd? Either way, that seems like quite a bit for a defensive-minded coach to give up for a quarterback in his first draft. Teams like the Vikings in the low 20s and on down the list would obviously have to pay even more. Thing is, immediately after us, you have the Broncos and Redskins at 12 and 13 who could both be looking for a quarterback. Might be an easy way to pick up an extra pick.

I forgot to add this, but billybob reminded me of another interesting angle McShay brought up. In his mock, he currently has the Raiders at #7 passing on Crabtree to take Maclin, because Maclin better fits the speed reciever mold that Al Davis favors. So that would mean Crabtree would still be on the board at #8, with Maclin gone (and therefore having no chance of dropping to the Jags if they trade down). McShay seemed to think that if this scenario indeed plays out, there's a chance Jacksonville would forego the trade-down and just take Crabtree at #8, who he thought would be tremendous value at that spot. No way to know this, but if SF and GB (numbers 9 and 10) are locked into somebody up in that range and don't want to trade out, we'd have a hot ticket at 11 again.

You're absolutely right, of course. If a team really wants a guy, but he's projected to go about 15-20 picks later...what the hell are they supposed to do? Obviously the trade-down isn't always there. So you stick to your guns, and take your guy, pundits be damned.

Mike and Mike had John Clayton and Todd McShay on the show today (seperately), and both indicated that Mark Sanchez' stock is rising, and they don't expect him to get out of the top 10. They both said teams like the Skins, Jets, Vikings, etc. who are looking for a quarterback will look to get up to #8 to snag him, and McShay added that the Jags do seem hell-bent on moving back, from what he's heard. Unless somebody really gets the hots for Josh Freeman, which could happen considering the dropoff at the position after him, these teams probably won't be trade partners for us. Number 11 seems high for Freeman, but if 2 or 3 teams are interested, somebody might be willing to go as high as #11 to be sure they get their guy. I hope so...we obviously could use first-day picks at more than 2 different positions this year!

Yeah, he even went as far as to say that in 2-3 years, he thinks people will look back and call Ayers the best defensive player in the entire draft. I really like Mayock, so Ayers has become pretty intriguing.

I read a rumor awhile back that said Robert Ayers was Modrak's number one DE. Wonder if he ends up commenting on him.

If there was a Peppersish DE in this draft I'd think about it, but there isn't. I don't really think a linebacker is gonna help all that much when we can't get a pass rush...and there's really no place for a rush 'backer in this defense. Pass.

C'mon Mr. Bot, where you at dogg

What do you mean? NFL Network is a national broadcast.

I assume the game will be sold out. Its a primetime, nationally televised home game...we don't get too many of those.

Hell yeah!

Yes! Its back! GO BILLS!

Gonzo is a great player, but a 2nd seems too high at this stage in his career.

Well according to my DirecTV guide, ESPN2 has a "Sportscenter Schedule Release Special" running at 7:00pm ET tonight, so you should be able to see it. NFL Network just says Total Access. I assume both will cover it. EDIT- Actually, on a poll on NFL.com, it says, "The 2009 NFL schedule will be released exclusively on NFL Network and NFL.com Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET." So I don't know what ESPN is getting at putting that on their programming guide. Maybe NFLN will have a live show with league execs similar to the NBA Draft Lottery show, and on ESPN2 it'll be guys in a studio getting the news a few minutes later? Whatever the case, you're probably gonna get to see some form of coverage, though.

Yeah, why does everyone seem to think this is Brandon's ship? Is it so hard to understand the Bills take a group approach? Tim Graham told us as much...

That seems a safe assumption.

WHAT A THUG!

We can only hope not.

There's a joke in there somewhere...

Well, the conventional thinking would be that when teams are playing from behind, they have to pass more, and the defense knows it, so they can 'pin their ears back' and just think about getting to the QB. Again, the last time the three of them stayed healthy for just 4 goddamn games in a row they combined for 26.5 sacks, if I remember correctly. When the three of them aren't all healthy, it follows that Kelsay and Denney can't rotate on the left side (as either one of them is hurt, or Schobel is hurt and one of them has to play the right side), which could keep them fresher and more effective. We haven't seen them get that chance for an extended run since 2006, and it worked out okay at the time. I'd love to add a DE, I'm actually hopin' and prayin' for either Brown or Ayers, but there's reason to think the rush might improve without a rookie. As long as everyone's healthy, and the offense is good. We'll see.

I agree...more points from the offense will put the pass rushers in a better situation. Also, the Bills haven't had their 3 defensive ends all healthy for 4 straight games since 2006, a year when they posted a very respectable sack total. There is hope.