2020 Our Year For Sure

Who cares what we thought at the time? At the time I thought it was a good idea to draft Mike Williams 3rd overall. When that became a failure I wanted people held accountable, not because I knew all along, but because it's their job to get it right regardless of what I think. It's a results-based business.

Must be a bunch of old fogies in here A lot of smart people my age text like that, it's not an indication of intelligence unless he writes his papers that way.

My best guess is Manuel. http://blogs.buffalobills.com/2013/04/12/bills-check-qb-e-j-manuels-footwork/

Paradox is the right word. It's easy to think of arm strength and nine routes as directly correlated because the ball travels further on the bomb than it does on any other route. But it takes another brand of mustard to put it on a line at 25 yards than it does to rainbow the ball over the top. In the end he does a lot of things well, but unless his arm strength improves I don't think he has a chance to be an elite quarterback. He could be a good starter, but with his arm as it is now he won't be the next Brady, Manning, Rodgers. And I think in the 1st round you want your guy to at least have a chance to be the best. He makes sense on day 2 for a team with the right system, but in round 1 there are options with more upside.

Throwing a good deep ball doesn't require a lot of arm strength. Barkley can throw the ball 55+ yards in the air and is accurate deep. He still has comparatively poor arm strength.

What comment?

The whole Barkley question is very interesting. This isn't a Fitz situation where his lack of arm strength effects his accuracy, Barkley is a guy who can throw it deep with pretty consistent accuracy. I'd bet money he can accurately throw an out to the outer hash like K-9 talks about, and make any other throw. But when you watch Barkley throw in the mid range it's clear there's a certain lack of velocity that every top QB in the league right now has. The big questions to me are 1) without that zip on the ball, how many of those accurate intermediate passes he fit into windows in college will be INTs and passes defensed against the more athletic NFL defenders, and 2) will his arm get stronger and by how much.

Kiper and Ron Jaworski were on First Take today talking about Barkley. Kiper compared Barkley to Rodgers again. Here's the end of Kiper's monologue: "Matt Barkley's arm, and it's been proven guys, Matt Barkley's arm could possibly get stronger. Jaws you buy into that, right?" And Jaws' response: "Mel we've had this discussion, and he brings up Aaron Rodgers, and I think that's the best real-life example I can think of. And I did have those concerns about Aaron Rodgers coming out, I thought where he was taken was about right. He was a bubble screen guy, we all thought he was a Jeff Tedford production. But here's the advantage he had: he played behind Brett Favre for 4 years. Every offseason he was in the weight room, he was working in what they call their college over there in Green Bay, their quarterback school with Mike McCarthy. He payed the price to get bigger, to get stronger, more accurate, and became a better quarterback. Didn't waste those 4 years and sulk. He worked at his trade and became a great quarterback. And I'm not saying that can't happen with Barkley, I think that would be a good situation. Go behind a veteran guy, learn the NFL game. Of course that'd be good for everybody. But Aaron Rodgers [is] truly a prime example of that." Keep in mind if Kiper were that good at this, he'd probably work for a team. And Jaws thought JP Losman would be the best QB in his draft class. And despite those words Jaws ranks Barkley as his 6th QB in this draft. They both want to see Barkley end up with a team that will let him sit on the bench a couple years, and that's probably not us. But on the other hand they both give Barkley a fighting chance to develop his arm strength.

I saw Kiper comparing Barkley to Aaron Rodgers. He said arm strength was the reason Rodgers fell in the draft. He of course sat on the bench for 4 years behind Favre before becoming the guy. How likely is it that Barkley will have a stronger arm when he reaches his physical prime, said to be around age 27, than he does now? I really have no idea.

I think you're right about that. I was referring to the 30 players we brought to Orchard Park for official visits. If memory serves, our last three 1st round picks and our last two 2nd round picks were brought in for visits before their drafts. It wouldn't be shocking if we took Woods but I wonder if it's an indication they're leaning a different way. Here are the WRs we had in this year. Russell Shepard- LSU Ryan Swope- Texas A&M Justin Hunter- Tennessee Zach Rogers- Tennessee Da'Rick Rogers- Tennessee Tech Cordarrelle Patterson- Tennessee http://blogs.buffalonews.com/press-coverage/2013/04/for-the-record-buffalo-bills-conclude-their-30-pre-draft-visits.html

A well thought out OP. I like a lot of what you say, but I wonder if the fact we didn't bring Woods in for a visit is an indication we're higher on Ryan Swope and Justin Hunter. I hope that you're misinformed about Moats playing ILB. We need to just let the guy do what does best, rushing the QB off the edge. ILB is something we should be looking to draft at some point. Just my opinion

Oh **** it's BACK. Go Bills

I've been counting the days. Can not wait!

Byrd has refused to sign his franchise tender. Most franchise players sign their tender and then continue negotiating. This is significant IMO no matter how people spin it. Clearly there's some trouble in paradise.

I like it. The J-Gun.

This is worth looking at, he has at least some skills catching the ball. With his athleticism maybe he can be like Reese in Oakland who creates all kinds of problems for defenses. We'll see.

Thank you. I was getting tired of typing out this very obvious point.

IF Kolb is the backup, the deal is a coup for us. His base salary is peanuts, even for a backup. My worry after watching our drafting the last few years is a scenario where we don't take a quarterback in the early rounds and we waste another season or two. Meanwhile Kolb starts, and gets overpaid at something like 6.5m. Kolb has performed a lot like Fitz so far in his career-- mostly mediocre play with a couple short spurts of strong play. When Fitz hit the open market, the league set his value around $3.5m. It's the thought of Kolb taking us nowhere and making 6.5m I'm not in love with. If we take a QB at #8 that isn't Nassib, I'll be ecstatic. Until that happens though I just don't know what to expect from this front office.

While I thank Dibs for posting those numbers, I don't see how it proves anything until we know the incentives. Maybe if he starts 16 games, he gets $8M year one. Until we know the incentives maybe we should keep the champagne on ice.

First round I want a quarterback. Hopefully Barkley or Manuel, but I'd accept Geno. We can't afford to waste anymore time, need to get a guy on the roster and start with the development process. These prospects are plenty good enough for a 1st round pick. Second round I want a WR or a TE. There's good depth at these positions so take your pick. Third round I want Nico Johnson ILB Alabama. Plays with attitude, can shed blocks, knows how to be in the right place. Need an ILB who can help us stop the run, I like what I read about him. Then somewhere in rounds 4-6, add a safety, an O-lineman, and maybe a corner. Bada bing

An effective way of stating what we already knew. If they view Kolb as a backup it's a very good signing, if they view him as a starter then we're about to waste yet another season, or two.

Really anything is possible-- it could've been all Gailey, it could've been all Nix, it could've been both of them. It's quite possible Nix was lamenting his own mistake on the phone call. We as outsiders will likely never know. To me, saying "I don't blame Nix for staying with Fitz, that was Gailey's call," is the equivalent of saying "I don't blame Gailey for under-using Spiller, Nix told him to do that." In both cases we're absolving someone of their own responsibility with no evidence for it.

Sorry to go off topic for a second but I see this written often and I'd like to understand it. The GM's responsibility is to acquire players and build a football team. The coach's responsibility is to win with that team on the field. On what basis are we absolving Nix of his responsibility? How do you know the trust in Fitz was a Gailey thing, and not a Nix thing? Unless I've missed something, all we know is that both men publically supported Fitzpatrick at every turn, and that acquiring a quarterback falls under Nix' domain.

While what you say is true, it was very different. I hadn't seen one of these since the first year he did it and then I watched last night, and it was night and day. We don't get to see these kids get asked the tough questions the way they are in team interviews, and for me that was what was so cool about it. Last night he didn't once ask Geno about anything he doesn't do well, just focused on his strengths the whole time. It was like a half hour commercial for Geno and the WV offense. You do still get to a see a bit more of their personalities than usual, which is interesting.

Right, and McKelvin and Williams have failed to live up to where they were drafted. If you can't evaluate players it doesn't matter what position you draft. The last time the Bills made the playoffs they had Thomas Smith and Antoine Winfield. The last time they had a winning season they had Nate Clements, Terrence McGee and Jabari Greer. Since that time, not only has the league become far more pass happy, the position has also become more difficult to play. And yet we should ignore that the CBs on those teams were significantly better than what we have now? Don't get me wrong, there are more important positions than CB. But there are also certainly less important positions, too. A team that already has a DL in place but has mediocre cover guys should consider Milliner, especially in a pressure scheme. Obviously QB comes first. If a franchise guy is there you don't pass on him for anything.