2020 Our Year For Sure

It's annoying and unfair that we've been screwed twice in a row, but it is what it is. I can see CodeMonkey's point, the NFL just has more important things to worry about when making the schedule. It doesn't bother them all that much that one team gets shafted in back to back years because they assume that in the long run, over a decade, things like that will come out in the wash. Flip a coin twice and you might get heads twice in a row. Flip that sucker enough times and the ratio will even out. Looking at it over a small sample size like two years, it seems unfair. At some point you gotta accept that that's just how stats/odds work, and win games anyway. Which I'm sure is Marrone and Brandon's attitude (I highly doubt this is something they told Frightened Lemur to write, much like his EJ Manuel mock draft in April). Hopefully the deck deals us better cards moving forward.

It'll be Manuel. A run\pass dual threat who excels when throwing outside of the pocket, like him, will make the read option far more dangerous. Play to his strengths, simplify things a bit if necessary and run the ball a lot, and unless Manuel is a total bust I can't see him failing to match the mediocrity of Kevin Kolb.

Buffalo Rumblings did a three part tape review on Pettine's D in 2012 awhile back and they mentioned this, that his actual blitz percentage isn't awfully high. The way I remember the Giants disrupting what Brady was trying to do wasn't with a ton of blitzes, the key was that they were able to generate pressure from their front four, so they could pressure and cover at the same time. If you can generate pressure without blitzing, to me that's inherently better than being forced to bring extra defenders consistently. The Giants did it with a host of athletic pass rushing DLmen that could win one on one matchups. Pettine seemingly was able to generate a sufficient pass rush without the benefit of that kind of personnel, and without resorting to blitzing constantly and taking people out of coverage. I don't think aggressiveness has to mean blitzing all the time, it can mean bringing people into the box so the defense doesn't know who's coming and who isn't. Pettine at times would line up with all 11 defenders within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage. I think if you show blitz just enough that they have to be worried about it, and show you're willing to blitz any player, bringing people up to the line can cause panic and confusion even if the actual blitz percentage isn't off the charts. The offense just doesn't know what to expect. Maybe I've got my homer glasses on but I think we're gonna be happy with this hire. We'll see.

I find it very encouraging that the pass rush is dominating the OL at this stage-- they should be. Something would seem wrong if they weren't getting pressure on an offense that was installed within the last month.

I'll tell you this, I would never, ever take Tom Brady off the field for Tim Tebow. Since Tebow will be working primarily as a quarterback, I think that eliminates a lot of the scenarios people throw around. Does he really have time to split his focus between improving as a quarterback, and learning how to block, catch and run routes? I wouldn't think so. That would eliminate any contribution as a TE, WR, h-back, fullback. The only position I can see him playing simultaneously with his work as a quarterback is a short yardage back, because it builds on his current skillset and doesn't require him to learn any brand new football skills. IMO if he makes the roster it'll most likely be as simply a backup or third QB.

For accuracy's sake, I didn't have my facts straight regarding the bolded. Brandon actually went to St. John Fisher, but he did some work at Syracuse in the sports department.

I can't think of a scenario where a coach was hired out of college by the President of an NFL team who worked with said coach at that college, which is also the President's alma mater. Clearly Brandon has a great deal of trust in his new hire. Brandon is the one deciding who has influence over the draft, and he may or may not care whether it's been done before by another NFL team. Something that doesn't sound like common sense to me: a forward-thinker like Brandon finally gets control over the organization, and he leaves Ralph's old Buddy and his losing record in charge of his (Brandon's) first war room. I don't buy it.

Dick LeBeau had plenty of tape on Tebow, and still allowed him to go for over 360 total yards in a playoff game. I tend to doubt that Tebow will stick because he can hardly !@#$ing throw, but to imply he has absolutely no chance is to ignore his history. Maybe 2011 was a complete fluke, but how can anyone presume to know for certain?

I think even in a cutthroat business it's worth remembering these are human beings. After Jackson's release, It's now clear the Bills did not want to have a legitimate three-way competition headed into preseason, and instead wanted to split most of the reps between Manuel and Kolb. This means that if we kept Jackson, he would've gotten few reps in practice, and would've stayed just as insurance against a Kolb injury. I think Jackson's release also makes it clear they only want to use two final roster spots on quarterbacks. All of this tells me the ONLY way Jackson would've made the team is by injury. He wouldn't get the practice reps necessary to earn the backup job, because they're too busy trying to decide if they want to start Manuel or Kolb. Considering the way Jackson's career has gone the past two years, I can understand the Bills doing the humane thing and giving him a chance to catch on somewhere else, knowing he was very unlikely to make the final roster here. Yes they could've kept him through preseason, and then let him go at final cut if Kolb is still healthy, but these are human beings. They wanted a two-man race for the starting job and T-Jax was the odd man out.

I wonder how many pass plays last year Mario found himself singled up on a TE. Bet you could count em on one hand. And confirmation the zone-read will be part of the offense.

Byrd would finally get to play in the box now and then under Pettine. Yes he's a good cover safety and a majority of the time I want him ballhawking; he's also a sure tackler with good instincts vs. the run. I have to think Pettine would love that versatility, and make good use of it in an effort to disguise and confuse the offense.

No doubt it's a collaboration. I see the Bills' draft structure as something like Seattle's, where they're all working together, everyone has input, but Coach makes the call.

Russ always technically has final say on everything. He's the President, and always the highest-ranking person in the room. That said, I agree with you that Marrone (with input from Pettine\Hackett) had the most influence over this year's picks. Brandon hired Marrone and then got out of his way. http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2013/4/24/4263542/2013-nfl-draft-rumors-doug-marrone-likes-ej-manuel

I can see what you mean with Flutie, it's all smoke and mirrors with both of them. Thanks for the correction. I see Tebow also ran for 50 and a score in the game.

I hope he fails because it's NE* but today I can't help but be happy for him. He would've been on a roster a long time ago if not for his ridiculous fans, and the media. I'm sure Belichick isn't the only coach in the league that would want to bring Tebow to camp as a bubble player, but he's one of the few coaches with the culture and stability at quarterback to keep the circus contained. For most teams the distraction is too big. If you tune out the media and the lunatics, I think he's a moderately interesting sports story. A quarterback who can hardly !@#$ing throw, who somehow saw his team turn their season around as soon as he replaced Orton, takes part in a bunch of wild comebacks and then walks into Pittsburgh and drops 300 yards in a playoff win. If he were any other person he would've been on a roster as a full-time quarterback the next season, even though he can hardly !@#$ing throw. It's a unique story. He's still not nearly as interesting as he's unfortunately been made out to be and it's caused a heavy backlash. After the ordeal with the Jets I'm glad he's not going out like that, but being it's the Pats* I gotta hope he doesn't make an impact. But it's a good fit for him.

What about tight end fits Tebow's skillset? Blocking, running routes, catching in traffic? I could see him as a short yardage back.

Agreed. "#1 WR" is a mathematical term. It's not subject to interpretation. Stevie may not be a "franchise WR" or a "prototypical #1 WR," and despite being technically a #1 WR you can argue he's still not good enough if you want. But if he's one of the top 32 at the position (he is) then he is a #1 WR.

Yeah let's let Spiller walk too, all that guy does is lose.

I agree that he appears overly sensitive for the position he's in. It manifests when things aren't going his way. At this point he does not seem to handle adversity well. It's something he needs to grow out of as he develops. It's possible the NY spotlight will thicken his skin as you say, it's also possible it will exacerbate the issue. I don't think anyone knows Geno well enough to say which way he'll go as he develops as a man. But I will say I think he's coming into this a bit naive and doesn't fully understand the sh*tstorm coming his way. I don't think he's prepared for it. I agree with eball, they should give Geno as much time as possible to get ready on the field and off before throwing him into the fire. The problem is Sanchez is bad, and he has no weapons to work with; the offense is likely going to be bad out of the gate, so Geno will continue to be the story even when he's not playing. This will lead to Geno getting on the field at some point this year, in a bad offense. How will he deal with making mistakes and losing games? Will his whole demeanor and his body language change, the way it did on the field in college, and on draft night? If it does, how will he be seen in an NFL locker room (the Jets have a culture where the players don't seem shy about calling each other out publically), and what will the media write about him? I'm not sure he's equipped right now to handle heaps of public criticism. And again it's possible going through these experiences will help him mature, and handle it better as his career goes on. But who can say for sure? He would not be the first NFL quarterback who just couldn't handle it emotionally. It's an incredibly high pressure job. The Jets seem like the wrong franchise at the wrong time for a kid like this. Geno would've been better off drafted by a team with an established vet quarterback he could quietly defer to for a season or two, and learn how an NFL quarterback goes about his business. As it worked out he'll have to learn everything the hard way.

Marcus Dowtin is also an OLB for us, after playing inside as the dime linebacker for the Jets, according to Pettine. I think Pettine likes this kid and moving him outside gives him a better chance at holding up vs. the run, and earning more snaps.

It also makes sense in terms of scheme. The bread and butter play of the run n shoot was two deep threats get outside release on either side, pulling away the safeties, allowing your best receiver free reign in the middle. New Orleans uses this concept with both Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston. They always make sure in the offseason they can surround these guys with deep threats, whether it's Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Lance Moore. Colston was a standout rookie and even better his second year, with Doug Marrone as OC. Nate Hackett has supposedly been schooled on the K-Gun, which was a modified run n shoot and used the same look with Andre in the slot. It's a good bet this concept will be in the iPad under these coaches.

There will be a better trade market after the season than there is now. The veteran player market at the minute is not generous. Even if the Bills don't want to pay Byrd they should wait out the season, then franchise and trade him afterward. Teams will have another year to evaluate and discard failed draft picks and to lose veterans to expired contracts, and will be looking to fill those spots. I've seen you project the Bills trading Byrd at a discounted value. Do you think this is logical or do you just expect the Bills to make a poor decision? Are we assuming Marrone and Whaley are clueless because past Bills coaches\GMs have been clueless? Just trying to get it straight where you stand.

I dispute none of this. I also think it will be a big adjustment for Mario Williams who may have signed partially because he liked the idea of lining up at LDE almost every play, and while he does seem on board now, there's a lot to pick up. That goes for everybody really, they'll all be moved around. And it certainly seems like we're putting a ton of responsibility on that 2nd round rookie (though I have it on good authority he told Coach Marrone, "I'm gonna set the Ralph on fire."). I just have this suspicion that even in the first few weeks, growing pains and all, it won't be one of the 3 worst defenses in the league the way it was last year. Things won't be running perfectly smoothly but the coach will at least understand how to defend a modern offense.

I think it's likely the D will be better than last year even before they're fully comfortable in the system. Just based on going from a terribly outdated scheme to a DC who understands how to play defense in 2013. They won't dominate from day 1, there will be some lapses, but it'll be clear after a few weeks we're better off than last year. Just a prediction from a fan who's been wrong many times.

Any of those backs could be a nice little pickup, we could use a short yardage back and someone to carry part of the load if Spiller or Jackson get injured. I'd look at Battle. Wouldn't mind adding a corner, other than that I say go with youth.