JM57

Or trying to bait the Giants into taking their QB at 6 instead of 17? I could see either being the case.

If the primary targets (Oliver, Hockenson, Williams) all somehow go in the top 8 and the Skins come calling to move to #9 that would be the best scenario to come out of it. Get down into the 15 area and now it's more palatable to take Metcalf, Wilkins, Fant or someone like that

If you know that Allen succeeded throwing deep and outside the numbers, guess who else does? Every single defensive coordinator in the league. And guess what the first thing they will scheme to take away is? The throws that he was good at.

He was a first round prospect with medical red flags. How does one outperform a first round stock?

I would suspect that means that Iowa, a noted NFL TE factory, had NFL talent at that position and not at WR...

Gronk was a first round talent with medical red flags that dragged his stock down. Everyone thought he would outperform his draft position *if* he was able to return to health from the back surgery he had at Arizona.

 Your schtick is bad and you should feel bad.

Your schtick is bad and you should feel bad.

No I'd absolutely agree with that on Allen. And then you add in another high variance prospect on offense too? Not the best strategy IMO. Allen showed last year that his floor isn't as low as we maybe thought it was, but there's still tons of work to do to hit that very high ceiling. Now some fans want to bring in another low floor, high ceiling WR too? Like really, how likely is it that BOTH of them would be able to hit that ceiling, let alone one of them? Then add on the track record of Ole Miss WR in the league lately. Give me a safer pick.

It's actually a good example. The physical traits are all there but the production isn't. What are the odds lightning strikes twice for the Bills?

My biggest thing is that they have to finish the offense before making luxury picks like back to back MLB in round 1. The first window to win with a "franchise" QB is when he's on his rookie deal and you can pay him peanuts and throw money around elsewhere. If that's where they think they are with Allen, they better make sure he's got every piece around him to start winning games. They only have a limited window before version one of the team has to be broken up and retooled to afford Allen's first raise.

Yeah I had to do some googling myself to remember the timeline but I never saw that tweet. Thought it was kept more quiet. Thanks!

Yes, you absolutely should care. Especially with your first pick. We know that abilities decline with age, with the rare exception. If you draft a 24 year old, you might get his peak years right off the bat, but maybe you're getting his athletic decline on the second contract. Whereas an Edmunds or Allen, you're getting development on deal one, prime years on deal two, and maybe if they sign a third deal, you get the twilight of their career. Why you would only want 5-6 years out of a first round pick when there's many other prospects at the same position who could provide you with nearly twice as many years?

I think the official visit to OBD was known but the private visit was very hush hush. If we knew about it, it wasn't until right about now. I remember the smoke really picked up on Tuesday or Wednesday last year I read the whole thing last night. He mentions official top 30 visits at OBD, senior bowl meetings, combine meetings, private workouts, shrine game...

The Bills brass flew to Wyoming for Allen's private workout last year. We didn't know it happened until after they picked him, but they definitely went to him. I don't dislike Wilkins as a player. I do dislike that he'll be 24 before this season ends. That means he's signing his second deal at 28. Some guys are signing their second deal at the age he's being drafted at.

Let's put it this way in regards to Hockenson....what are the odds that the Bills had a private workout for Noah Fant and the WR from Iowa, Nick Easley, and didn't work out Hockenson while they were in town?

Just my opinion, White's going to be a very good player, but that's a luxury pick and not smart to double up on LB in two consecutive years. As mentioned elsewhere, it's obvious Beane and McDermott think Josh Allen is The Guy, right? Otherwise why draft him. So operating from that, it's always best to maximize that first competitive window where your young QB is cheap and you can spend premium money elsewhere. To maximize that window, your offense has to be as good as possible to allow the young QB to succeed. They haven't finished the offense. If they keep building the defense first, they're going to waste that first window.

Much appreciated. You're much more modest on your evaluation of him than many of the big time analysts, but I think that's a good thing. If the big time analysts are writing their reports and hyping his ceiling, I think you've done a good job with seeing his floor.

Would you trust the LB to cover a slot WR or back lined up out of the backfield over a DB?

This keeps coming up on the board and the question that never gets answered is "who comes off the field when they go to nickel?" I can't find the percentage anywhere but I bet the Bills were in nickel/dime looks close to half of their defensive snaps. Which one of the 3 is missing half the snaps then?

That's from last year, I'm just saying I don't think he's really dialed in on anything with the Bills especially since it turns out, one year later, that Gettleman was never moving out of #2

Cam Newton stole/was kicked out of Florida but that didn't stop the Panthers from taking him and although Beane wasn't the GM then, he was there... Others have talked to sources that still think he doesn't make it out of the top 20.

I think that was Kevin Massare, can't find a tweet from either though to confirm it. Todd McShay is 'hearing a lot of buzz' that Buffalo Bills could trade up to No. 2 Posted Apr 4, 2018

I like your philosophy. I'm kind of on the other side of the fence. Hockenson's high floor sells me. IF Josh Allen is The Guy, then the Bills need to get good before he costs a ton of money. That's their best window. Surround him with the best weapons you can, starting with this season, and let's get there. A plug and play guy like Hock with a high floor and still a high ceiling just makes sense to me like that

Yeah definitely more athletic. It's funny some of the write-ups I've read on Hockenson have a hard time finding real negatives for him on the film, maybe some small stuff to clean up, but they're just like "his athletic numbers aren't great." Now I won't call myself an expert but if you're breaking down film of a guy and all you can find to be down on is that he doesn't test off the charts at the combine then you've got my attention. Give me a player whose film is so good you can't even complain about it LOL