OCinBuffalo

at the same time. All I've heard today was how badly the NFC East sucks this year. Now, since we play none other than the NFC East, the next 3 games in a row, it stands to reason that the media et al should be telling us that we will breeze through. Yet, no...our playoff chances are "fading away". These 2 things cannot be happening at the same time. No. Either the NFC East sucks, and thus the Bills have an easy schedule going forward, or, the Bills playoff chances are fading away...which indicates that one or more of the otherwise sucky/can't beat anybody/can't play defense, NFC East teams is going to beat us. Well, we could apply the same "unless it's Buffalo" conditional rules that the refs have been applying the last 3 weeks. (It's hilarious to watch Red Zone after the Bills game, and see the same calls that go against us, be called the other way "obviously"). In that case, I suppose one could say that, "The NFC East sucks...unless they are playing Buffalo". Anobody wanna bet that this silly rationale is used each of the next 3 weeks? Finally, let us have some fun, and see how many times Pete Prisco(Jet Fan, and Pats* ballwasher...because his Jets can't beat them) picks the Bills to win, straight up or ATS the next 3 weeks. I'm setting the O/U on that at 1.

Yes, 50 years later, the Great Society and its War on Poverty... ...stunning results. Again I ask: why are we defending the legacy and programs of a POTUS whose sole agenda in creating them was the exploitation of the poor, in return for their votes? EDIT: And let me disabuse anyone of the notion that the Great Society was anything else: Johnson copped to the exploitation in his own words. Once again: I do not see how a man who completely F'ed up Viet Nam, is given a complete pass as a social engineer, as though somehow his stupidity in one area, has 0 chance of being re-applied in another. EDIT2: Obama has F'ed up on ISIS just as much as he has F'ed up on Obamacare. It's all bad, all the time. This is empirical. Why then can't we apply the same standard to LBJ? What makes his empirical policy failures so special? Do we think another 10 years of Medicaid paying $15 a visit, or $billion Medicare fraud will sort itself out? How about more disability and welfare? Any of this going to get better, or will it remain a giant schit stain on the bed, that we just ignore, and keep sleeping in...because LBJ was such a great guy?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/11/30/what_should_we_do_about_climate_change_128876.html Ok, so the guy is a consultant. However, this is exactly the kind of work that needs to be done on this topic. Often in our business(as I am sure DC_Tom can now attest), we are confronted with myths, agenda-driven narratives, and selfish distortions of the business process("how things work" at the client). Our job is to get to the real truth. It's like being an investigator of sorts. After all, we cannot solve the problems we've been asked to solve, if we act on falsehood/distortion. Hence, Rule #4 for new consultants: The Client is NEVER right(completely). This requires extreme objectivity, and as a human being, that is tall order, and it costs. Nevertheless, it is what is required. While selfish agendas and the myths they create are difficult to track and kill, self-deception and sheer stupidity are much harder. Sometimes self-preservation, or merely: wanting to do a good job, and having pride in the work, is the only agenda, but, stupidity drives that the wrong way. People think propogating a myth is helping them, when the opposite is true. Self-deception/stupidity are the hardest nuts to crack, because there is no motive to track through the process/data, they simply do not know any better, or go along, or do things that support the myth because it is "helping" them. With self-deception, data is auto-filtered, yes, but more likely, sources that might provide contrary data are instictively avoided. Stupidity rejects the normal data processing approach entirely. In any event, this guy claims to be an evidence-based management consultant. I submit that for any real consultant, these modifiers ahead of the word consultant are redundant. However, his work is exactly the kind of thing I have been trying to expose the self-deceived here to for quite some time. If you check the links, you can see how the myths were conceived, how they are propogated, and how they are now defended today. If you have an agenda, we know how you will react: argue against at all costs. If you are self-deceived/stupid: you will merely avoid this contrary data. If you're an honest broker: this article and its links are of use.

Here's an example of why I write long sometimes. I knew he was going to say this. But, I cut out what would have addressed this last time...so that some of you could learn the lesson: depending on topic, I'm going to write the same number of words no matter what: it's just a matter of whether they go into 1 post or 10, and, I have nothing to do with that decision. B-large is the reason I now have to write what is below. So blame him. A price to compare...is based on cost. The bottom line is: you can't walk into a heart surgeon and say "how much for quadruple bypass...but I don't want the full package, just give me the bypass and only 1 unit of blood". You can't actually attach a price tag to an entire health care procedure, from admit to discharge. It's difficult to have that price expectation be met one time, never mind every time. Thus, even if we did what you are proposing, and make the price/procedure clear as a bell? Based on our data? 95% of the time that price will be inaccurate. Surprisingly, ~65% of the time, our data suggests a lower price(cost) than would be set, but, they'd charge it anyway, in an effort the defray the over-priced ~45%. This is the eternal evil of packaging together a set of unique tasks, calling them: a procedure, and slapping a flat price on top of them. If you've costed 1 patient getting an MRI? You've costed 1 patient, and that's it. You CANNOT apply that cost to all patients in broad scale. Certainly you can't do it in an effort to get a "straight price". What's the variable cost for a 24 year-old vs. an 80 year-old? Gotcha! What if that 80 year-old has full mobility, but the 24 year-old is a parapalegic? See? NOBODY knows the cost ahead of time. What if the 80 year-old is mobile as hell, but ***** the MRI? What if the 24 year old does? No. No. No. Fing No. Top-down financial allocation is doing it wrong. Nobdy drinks 2.3 cartons of milk. And what exactly is the price for that? Can we give the .7 to somebody else? What we can do, and what we are doing, is looking at cost properly in health care. We look at every attribute of each individual task. Soon providers won't be talking about how they've kept their price/procedure low...because that is pointless: the price for a routine surgery...can suddenly balloon if they find something else, or, if they have unforeseen complications == unplanned work == unplanned cost == unplanned price. Rather, they will be able to demonstrate how they've kept their costs low, and managed them properly. They will be able to show responsiveness to cost spinning out of control in acute situations, as well as a constant cutting of cost over time. They can do this by showing consistent improvement not only in effectiveness but also in cost of each task. It's legos. We use task legos, with inderminate cost/time/measurement/materials and build them into procedures for the final cost. This...and only this...is how we accomplish the goal, and I know this, because I'm doing it.

#OftenConfused is going to live on the internet like Caturday.

The massive positive that is happening here should be obvious: the far-left ideology of far too many professors, and their willingness to enforce, not teach, that ideology, at our college campuses has been exposed on a grand scale. For years people have bitched about this, but now, when it's been mainstreamed? There's only 1 possible outcome: backlash. (Once again if you want something done, put the far left in charge of doing the opposite). It's impossible to ignore this story because of its pervasiveness. When you have sports radio guys offering opinions on this, and most of them stumbling and bumbling their way to the Constitutionally Correct answer: Free Speech is a right? There's going to be backlash. That's is because even when the biggest idiots in the country get their chance to look down on those who are otherwise always looking down on them, they take it. This is not over, for the simple reason that it so easily translates into: college debt, college effectiveness, etc. All of these translate to a comprehensive review of college as a concept. In the end, I believe the far left will be responsible for destroying yet another of its "safe zones". In the end, the college professors responsible for what happened at Missou...aren't going to get what they intended.

I've been doing analytics, for a job, since before it was called analytics, or business intelligence, for that matter. But, please, educate me. Yeah, I've never advised a client that while our data warehouse, and the tools we've delployed/constructed/integrated on top/next to are great resources, they are no substitute for experience. And that informed experience, is literally the definition of business intelligence. Funny. Long before Nate Silver was doing anything....I was doing Moneyball for GM. Hell, I could have written my own blog...but that is both beneath an enterprise consultant, and an NDA violation. Perhaps you should google Cognos, and Business Objects(I managed 15+ deployments of each), and ask yourself why, given that they won the BI wars, they aren't household names today. They were analytics, in every sense of the word. Perhaps I should save you the trouble, because this is like an open book test that you're going to fail anyway. Business intelligence, requires: innate intelligence. The reason these firms once dominated, and then got sold to IBM, etc., is because ultimately, the premise of analytics, as sold today, which is == to your premise above...is false. Even if you provide the smartest architecture in history, it won't matter...if 60+% of the organization is too dumb to do anything with the information that architecture provides. It's entirely relative, and often comes down to what each invididual manager finds useful, or is able to understand. See? Experience. I've learned that lesson, the hard way, multiple times, especially at GM. So, no, it's not "either/or" for an organization, as you described. Not even close. Moveover, with an acute decision like kicking a FG/going for it? That can ONLY be determined by how a head coach FEELS about his team, IN REAL TIME. Providing real time analytics, such that real time decisions can be made on it, is no simple task. To be truly useful, Analytics...requires a workflow and business rule engine, aloing with sound OLTP systems. This does not consist of some tool taking raw data and running it against his spreadsheet(never mind the bottle neck in decision flow that creates), or his copy of SAS, or worse, having that turd's work used as holy writ by sports opinionists. And, ALL of the above is subject to 100% accurate and approved raw data collection, properly validated and processed, or none of it is worth a damn. But, please, as I said, tell me about analytics some more.

Life Lesson from PPP? Even the people you vehemently diagree with are capable of making your day with the perfect reggae song at the perfect time. "I gotta tell ya Ton' man, earlier in the day, I was feeling really ****ty man. Really down in the dumps. Lost a little money... Hey you know what? Forget about it huh, forget about it. Yeah, !@#$ it man! I can't be worried about that ****. Life goes on man!" This is cool, but, the really cool part will come when we get back to knowing that, "come on, it's the (this year, the Jets/Steelers/Raiders) and they will blow it because they are who they are, meanwhile, we'll win because, come on, it's the Bills". Leading up to the "no punt" game against the 49ers and Steve Young? Everybody in the divison still had a chance. But the fact is, even with my memory, I don't remember who/what/how. Because? It did not matter. I knew we'd win, and while I can remember every single word to every single Led Zeppelin song, and every song, and album, in order, I only do so because that is important. I don't memorize anything. It just comes to me. I can read my 8th grade history book right now. It still matters. When we get back to "It's a toss up betwen raking the leaves, taking a nap, and watching the games today(Sunday) I know don't matter. The Bills are better, and are playing Monday, and none of this is worth remembering, because these other teams are merely toys, that we'll let fight themselves, and crush when they finally get to us. Hell, losing Monday doesn't even matter."? Then that will be something to remember, because we will finally be back to our normal mindset.

Yeah dammit! I have been micro-aggressed, if not macro-aggressed! I need a safe space to watch Bills games without the fear of my disability being used to diminish my role in society, thus disenfranchising my citizenship. All of you should be ashamed of yourselves. Feel your oppression, oppressors! I am offended, and I demand an immediate apology. Or I will have my considerbale airport resources meet you wherever you fly, even DuBuque, Iowa, and reign hell down upon you(I think I can get this one chick to hold a sign and yell stuff...but I'd probably have to have sex with her...so...).

I like Carton. He's is friggin hilarious. However, here he hides behind the mic, and let's Boomer make a bunch of excuses? Weak sauce. Speaking of weak, for those how haven't heard: Excuses are like a-holes, everyone's got one and they all stink. Here's some facts to counter the excuses: Darby and Gilmore, and the D backs in general blanketed the Jets WRs. Fitz HAD to throw into double coverage all night. 1 time he got a TD for it, because our S was late, and the other, late in the game, he dropped a pass right in the bucket against Cover 2. OK...but go back and watch the rest of the throws. As any Bills fan knows, when Fitz is in the red zone, and you need a laser pass delivered to a TE/big WR? Nope. You get a floater, because that's all you're gonna get. Defense/WRs running into each other? Horsecrap. I said it at the time and I'm saying it now: Fitz had 0 chance in the red zone agains our DBs. Mark my words: if we play Denver/Manning in a WC game, we will win for the same reason. Arm strength is required, otherwise the DBs know to look for the fade to the corner, etc., and not the quick out, because the QB can't make that throw. Both Boomer and Carton should know this, having watched the Bills play the Jets for 20 games now in their jobs.

That's why this board...is this board. Some posters are here to say the things that need to be said, some are here to say the things the rest of us don't know. And, clearly, some umitigated morons are here to say idiotic things/parrot ESPN...which is actually a positive...it readies us for the next time Rich Gannon does one of our games. But, some posters are here to find the detail. We all have a role to play in this universe.

And idiots wonder why I kill WGR. We don't even get paid for this schit, and we have infinitely better bits than they do.

Killer meme. Got the Jets background and everything. Made you look.

No. For 4 reasons: 1. I already know what you're going to say. 2. I already know why 3. It's bunk 4. You can't spell hear.

If we beat the Pats on MNF at their place? There will be gallons of crow to eat. I mean, we'll have to import crow from Europe, and that's going to cost a lot, given recent events. They have so much crow to eat over there after yesterday, that the price of crow is already going to skyrocket. The Germans will have a tough time doubling the production of beer necessary to wash down all the crow they now have to eat, given that speech from 8 years ago. If we beat the Pats*, the UN may have to step in, and start rationing crow. Well, that is...if we still valued honor, and actually held everybody to the amount of crow that is due. However, after we win, I'm sure that many will find a solution in merely wishing away their share of crow, thus never being accountable for it. So, in the end, we might find that prices in the crow market don't exceed expectation, and those who are tradiitionally accountable for what they do and say, merely consume their normal ration.

Deadspin realeases photo those of us with a disability can actually see. I will be filing my civil rights violation, as well as my disability, lawsuits, and claims, very shortly. I mean if 10 million Americans can suddenly go on disability, so can I! I wasn't allowed to enjoy the game like everybody else! That is a clear violation of my civil rights. AND, Nike has already adimitted to its negligence. I need a safe space in which to watch Bills games without having anit-color blind macro agression unleashed upon me! Colorblind Eyes Matter!

Interesting. I guess it's fair to say that you decided to dig up your own old thread, and disclaim it, before anybody else did? Nice work. Except...please...did you really think you'd be able to play this off? If so, perhaps you don't realize one of my main funcitons here: I tell the truth, and tough schit if you don't like it. You're in more trouble now...than if you had just sweated it out and hoped everybody forgot your ridiculous OP. And the fun part, for me, is that you don't know where this is going next. I mean, well, you could have just deleted this thread. Anybody who reads this, before it gets deleted, gets a gold star.

How do you know she's a snapper? Personal experience? If so...this board needs to create dev/null day, as a yearly holiday and celebrate your greatness.

Yep. And, dammit, I can't see the difference in that video either. I thought there might be some backasswards way that F'ing it up for the rest of you might make it work for me. Nope.

It was awful for me. As I said in the shoutbox, and in my thread that got deleted during the game, the first INT was nothing short of pure chaos in my brain. I thought 2 Jets WRs were going for the same ball, and that a Jets WR got the tip. Imagine my surprise when the guy with the ball started running what I thought was the wrong way. It was like this for me: I didn't know whether to laugh, cry....so I just sat there...stupified. I imagine this thread will get deleted too... Before it does...IN...and...there are different degrees of colorblindness. Some people simply can't see the number in the dots. Some people have to spend the whole game reminding themselves that FItz plays for the Jets now. The green turf was the real problem. If Nike wants to do another "color rush" then lets do it on blue turf. It's not like they don't have the $.

Exactly. Colorblindness made me constantly wonder which team I was watching. 2 times I mistook the Bills for the Jets...because the Jets looked like Gailey Bills. The same movement, plays, routs.. Fitz looking like Fitz, teasing you with a good play, then a terrible one. This was easily the most surreal game I've ever seen, taking 1st place away from the San Diego Power-Failure, Piss-Fest.

My mom's fantasy team: Tyrod Shady Karlos Woods Bills D ....and she misssed Sammy by 1 pick. It's Damn the Torpedoes for her. She starts Shady and Karlos every game. The worst? She beat me, and ended my undefeated season last week....with those guys.

Yep. See, the thing about being colorblind in this game? You had to look extra hard to figure out what was happening. It's like my football sense got a boost. I could only see movement(felt like being a F'ing deer). I recognized a whole lot of past Gailey "OMG, WTF, etc" moments in this game. 2 plays come to mind: throwing for 2 yards to Decker? when they needed 4, and having Preston Brown wipe him out immediately coming from the inside out = 4th down. And, the insane play you mentioned, throwing the ball behind the line of scrimmage on 4th and 2. Darby made a great play in the open field, but, notice, McKelvin was there immediately. Even if he got away, McKelvin still woild have stopped him short of the marker. I really don't know how from there, with 3 TOs and and easy kick, you don't take the points, trust your very good(on paper) D, and put yourself in position to make a stop get the ball back, and kick the winning FG. I know all about "going for it" analytics, but, there's a time for analytics, and a time for sound judgement.

Horsecrap. Honestly. We got 2 wins in 5 days. We don't play again until a week from Monday, which is essentially half a bye week before we play NE. Plenty of time to heal up and prepare. Screw that, we get to enjoy this through Sunday. We can be done celebrating Monday morning, like always.

Were you there?