http://battlegroundw...-on-november-6/
Look, before you even start , this is a fact-based argument. That doesn't mean it's right. Do I think Romney gets MN? 30% chance at best. But, that beats the hell out of the chance I thought he had 30 days ago.
The main reason I posted this is the argument against the D+10 oversample. Obviously. This is far and away the best indictment of these turnout biases that we keep seeing. We can talk about whether MN will go red. But, this post shows, beyond all doubt, that a D+, anything other than 2, over-sample is as ridiculous as it is easily debunked.
Also...this guy crushes NBC/Marist for all time: http://battlegroundw...-obama-leading/
And uses Chuck Todd's(MSNBC's own political director) tweets to do it. Now, if your own guy is telling you that the oversample fix is in...then...what? Blame it on FOX News? Is Chuck Todd part of a "vast right wing conspiracy"?
Romney has declared victory in NC, and just pulled out his #1 guy there, and most of the NC resources, and sent them all to Ohio...and he is only up by 5. Again, behavior is more telling than polls.
If Obama was really up by 9...he'd be long gone form IA, and be spending all his $ and time in VA, NC, and FL. Instead, he's spending all his time in NH, WI, IA and OH...and perhaps even MN and PA. That's playing defense.
Boy, aren't those Intrade suckers...who keep citing polls like this...going to be in total shock?