OCinBuffalo

Yeah, so did I...since...I was the guy who started it, and, I was the guy who responded to the clowns that resurrected it, when the Bills were 5-5. Of course it was a call-out thread, and I will start 100 more if necessary, clowns. (The trouble is...for the simple...I had no idea who I was calling out, or why, because I had hardly read the board, never mind logged in, when I wrote it...in a F'ing hotel room of all places...for 6 months. Thus, I started this thread like any hunt. You know the prey is out there, it's just a matter of skill/patience to take it.) Once again, I've done TSW a service. Don't believe me? Ok then, re-read this thread. Remember who is now immortally be-clowned by it. Learn. Repeat. Then, next time, remember this thread, and remember this: "If I have to come down there, somebody's ass is gonna get whipped."

Blow it...out your...ass. How's my math now mfers?

Legion 1: Orlandus Legion 2: Tampanium Legion 3: Miamitus I just heard back from my brother. His entire response was: "Yes". He never sends one word texts. So, in context, that's like him saying "Nuts" and we are talking about Bastogne.

What an awesome thread. Individual creativity. I honesty don't know. I do know: my little brother is there, at the Bills Legion(my term from the last time I was there) tailgate. All the BB clubs, Tampa, Orlando, Miami, etc., all takeover a massive part of their parking lot. It looks like 3 Roman Legions have camped, hence my term. There were tens of Ks of Bills fans there the last time I was there, 44-7 Bills, and in the first quarter our fans dominated. Miami had to call a TO on O, at their own stadium. Now, sir, you've just given me a text to send to my bro...and we shall see what happens. Certainly, the lame ass security people there could never stop them, especially since: the Bills Legion got the Dolphins to pay the danegold. Bills fans get 40% off tickets if they all agree to sit in the same sections. EDIT: Because the year before Bills won fights all over the stadium. So, to those who say fighting never solves anything. You're wrong: it gets you 40% off Bills tickets at Dolphin home games. So, then, all those fans concentrated in lower bowl sections...with like 2 guys to stop them? Highly plausible, especially if their scoreboard shows BAL lost/is losing.

Why is anyone surprised? That terrible administration, which will go down as one of the worst in history, was full of scandal, corruption, bald-faced lying and graft. There were consequences. Look what that did to the D party: they went from total control to total irrelevancy. But there haven't been the consequences we expect: Lois Lerner going to jail, etc. The 2 reasons Obama won re-election are: Mitt Romney was a terrible candidate, a sizable amount of the career government people abused their power to keep him in office, because they HAD to protect themselves. Now, you have a sizable amount of career government people who have attempting to sabotage Trump for the same reason: they are guilty. It's either Trump, or them. They have tried to make it Trump, but they have failed. Now, they've only added to the list of charges against them.

I don't know about all this, since we've had this floating around for 3 years. That's right, we've got what amounts to a phaser from Star Trek already deployed on a US Navy ship. It can destroy every kind of target, air, sea and land. Does it work? Probably. In fact it's likely that many destroyers and frigates already have this thing either deployed or in final testing.l

We'll see. The new Federal Tax Reform is going to kill wealthy blue state people, who have been deducting state taxes, from Federal, thus voting for Ds, without personal consequence, and expecting the rest of the country to pick up their state tax tab, for decades. Democrats know that this is a HUGE political defeat for them. People might piss and moan about Congress/Trump...for a while. But, soon, they will start demanding tax cuts from the notoriously idiotic tax and spend states. Chris Christie got elected on one main promise: capping property tax in NJ, and he did it. Thus, Democrats fear, correctly, that they will ultimately have to spend more resources on keeping what they have in CA, NY, NJ. They will try, and fail, Mondale-style, to convince them that taxes are too low, and should be raised. No, this throws every Blue state into making hard choices. Which is operating as designed: despite their "enlightenment" liberals can't solve this problem, but, they will claim they can: leaving many doors open to Rs. NE already has 6-8 R governors. Ponder that.

Just like the old saying, when one is pledging, or in the Army: "Sunday comes awful quick". That's what the above is: a 36-48 hour pass, but, Sunday night formation/lineup, or in this case an early morning Wednesday Senate vote, kicks your ass back into reality...instantly. I can't wait for February. How much you wanna bet the Ds go finding the most broke-ass, sorry-assed, McDonald's part-timer...and "prove" that s/he only got an additional $20 in their paycheck? So, that's the story they will peddle: chasing down people that have to work part-time to keep their welfare. Meanwhile, the vast majority of Americans will see a pay bump plain as day. Christ, it's like you can already write the story for the Washington Post/New Your TImes. You can see the MSNBC reporters chasing down illegal immigrants in Brooklyn to ask them if they got a tax break. Ipso Facto

All must bow down to the God Emperor Trump. The biggest tax cut, and yeah, morons, reform, that surpasses even Reagan(in more than a few areas...I'd like to have see the interest loophole thing done, but, that is what 2018 is for). It's like I'm in elementary school with Carter all over again: Schitty economy, Schitty President who blames us for his schitty policies not working, tons of excuses, losing everywhere/losing respect/Russians and Iranians F'ing with us....so we skip the damn Olympics in response(/facepalm)...everybody pissing and moaning that it's somebody else's fault...then...BAM! Just when you think Chaos will finally rule supreme...along comes Reagan/Trump. The warp storm is over in what seems like an instant. Alexis de Tocqueville had it right: "The greatness of America lies not in being more enlightened than any other nation, but rather in her ability to repair her faults." Yes, given 2006-10, we've had a lot of faults to repair. Trump has repaired more of them, faster, than any other POTUS in the history of the US, given that he had to start his presidency at -5, rather than 0, thanks to Feckless Obama(I'm not kidding, Lincoln started at -5 too, but he didn't get as much done in one year). Every cuk has tried their best to stop Trump. But, being cuks, all they've been able to do is sit and watch...because that is what cuks do. And, before DC_Tom even tries to start: Lincoln didn't have to deal with cuks until McClellan's candidacy. They called them copperheads back then. But do some primary source reading of Union soldiers diaries: you'll see that their copperhead is synonymous with our cuk after about 5 minutes.

You just proved, in that single statement, that you don't get probability at all. Given the NFL format, it's probable that some(mathematical use here) teams are going to have long playoff droughts, as it is probable that some teams are going to have long playoff runs. While, it's just as probable that some teams will stay "in the hunt" meaning 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 for long periods of time. In fact, "in the hunt" is more probable than anything else, because of a widely accepted statistical tenet: regression towards the mean. Go do some research and find out how often the Bills have deviated from the 7-9 wins mode over the 17 years. Not often. So, the Bills are actually doing the MOST probable thing of any team. During the 17 years...the Seahawks made the playoffs with a 7-9 record. That's an anomaly, but it is true. Meanwhile, we've had an outlying but, no less dependent variable, in our division, the Patriots, who by definition have reduced our chances of making the playoffs, by making it themselves...for 16 of 17 years, with the miss year posting an 11-5 record. The Bills have produced teams that would have made the playoffs if they were in other AFC divisions, and certainly in the NFC, for the last 17 years. This is a matter of fact, not opinion. In fact the Bills not making the playoffs is a statistical outlier, just like them getting never getting 0 wins, and/or being 4-12, that cannot be defined solely by the Bills themselves. Outside variables are obviously in play, which, is to be expected, again, given the NFL model. The Pats being good, our dominance over Miami...these are the are the unusual variables that keep us "in the hunt" == never good, and never bad. Example: This year the Bills are IN the BEST AFC Division, East(.539 win %[all % rounded up]) playing the BEST NFC division, South(.577) playing the 2nd BEST AFC division, West(.477) It's highly improbable that the Bills have a winning record, but they do: fact. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are IN the 2nd WORST AFC Division, South(.457), playing the WORST AFC Division, North(.442) playing 2nd WORST NFC Division(.500), West. It's highly probable that they should be the #1 seed, but they aren't: fact. These facts confront you: what will you do with them? Turtle? Call me crazy again? Or will you realize that math...is math, and, even under pressure, regression towards the mean, in this case, dragging the Bills up from expectation, and Jags, down, is how math works? Do you understand that a 4-12 record is much less probable, than an 8-8 record, yet? Thus, do you understand that "knowing" the Bills are a 4-6 win team, before they've even played a single game...is silly, when we actually know that EVERY team is most likely to be a 7-9 win team when the season is done? EDIT: Best of all, you could go do research and realize that in a 3 way tie...strength of schedule favors us for the rest of the season.

Nah, just admitting you're wrong is fine. Anything else is surplus to requirements. Dude, I highly suggest you avoid bringing up history in any context in this discussion. You've already just proven you don't know the definition of revisionist history just now. I'd leave it at: you were wrong, and move on with your day. Also, I'd advise you to refrain from making any definitive statements in future. "We'll see" is the best way to go.

Blah blah. Respond to the substance of the post. The trouble is: you can't, can you? The material my assertions are based on should, and I use that word cautiously given today's education system, be available to review in any 11th grade math textbook. We're not doing differential equations here. This is basic probability. The very nature of the NFL means, with regards to schedule prediction/playoff odds, the material in that textbook is all that is required. So, are you forgetting your 11th grade math...or.... My point, as simply as I can state it is: that's not what far too many on this board were claiming in September. They in essence, in terms of predicting the season, were not only claiming to be direct decedents of Nostradamus, but to have also created the Philosopher's Stone, figured out Mona Lisa's smile, and to have solved all the Borgia Murders. They "knew" this was a 4-12 team. No, this is at worst a 7-9 team. Wrong is wrong, but definitively screaming from the church spires that you know 4-12...that's idiocy.

Yeah: I think the teaching here should begin with why somebody would make a definitive claim that "this is a 4-5-6( they keep moving the goal posts)" team....when...probability, odds, math, reason, basically anything didactic...suggested then, and now, that if they bet their house on that at the beginning of the season, when then made their claims, they'd be living in van, down by the river, right now. Now, the question that confronts you is: would you like to know why predicting 4-12, on any NFL team, in any NFL season, is a loser's bet? Or, do you want to keep living in your van, down by the river?

Heh, the above post is an object lesson in why letting people speak as much as possible is optimal. You admit that you thought it was a 4-6 win team...that now has 7 wins. I have corrected you. You're factually incorrect, now you can either own up to it and explain why, or, you can turtle, or...you can write the above. Perhaps you don't understand the term "lurk". I have read your posts, but not responded to them. Thus, I have "lurked". My lack of response doesn't mean I haven't identified a pattern with you, and, you just allocuted to your 4-6 mind-set. I called you a Bills-beater...because it's intrinsic to a wife-beater...but without the divorce, loss of custody, incarceration, fines and community service. So, it's a better choice than wife-beating, but, that doesn't make it a good choice.

Yes of course, Bills-beater. You'd rather not be confronted with reality. But, in your case, given your recent posts, that's precisely what you need. Sure, you'd rather that I feed into your delusion. Every delusional does. This would allow you to keep your "hey, I might suck, but the Bill suck worse" pathos. Sorry. I refuse. And, that's actually a helping hand for you, or not. We'll see. And yeah, you can tell me all about the draft...blah. Crapshoot. Position means nothing, # of chances to pick means everything. Or, do you think that RG3 taking up 3 high draft picks == Tom Brady/Peyton Manning/Jim Kelly who each only required: 1. Still laughing, mathematically, at the clowns who supported that idea. Ask anybody that's been here long enough: I do football when football needs to be done. I usually lurk because I fully admit that I leech info off the many excellent posters here. I just don't have the time anymore. However, don't get confused: When necessary I ALWAYS do my own, quality, work. Like right now. Also, I am objective: I NEVER watch college football, so, at draft time, I may serve as an objective voice for those having disputes over players. It's literally Missouri == "show me". I have yet to "gloat". I have forced people to make corrections, by holding them accountable. There is a HUGE difference. The mere fact that you would use the words "gloating about 8-8" says a lot more about you, than it does me. I am a reasonable person. Of course I wouldn't gloat about 8-8 and I never have. I would gloat about 9-7 and making the playoffs, which as of today we have a 22% chance of, with a MOE of 5 and change %. I will gloat about my ability to do that math in my head, as I'm writing this, because I can: and you can't. Yeah, how about some social commentary: I get paid a lot more than you, because I do know what I'm talking about. There's no patriarchy, or conspiracy, or systemic anything. It simply comes down to your post above: You don't even want to try to figure out....most likely because you think trying probably == failing. It's too bad. So, you don't try. Too bad. Hey, ask anybody here: I have a long history of helping EVERY Bills fan whose has ever PMed me about IRL stuff. Even some mods. So, a choice confronts you: I can help you try, and succeed. Or, you can try to use....whatever....to concede defeat and not bother trying. I am willing to make the effort. Actually it's sorta compelling. Part of my job is teaching, and teaching is addictive.

That's not what I asked. Do you think that your analysis points to a propensity of being correct beyond 50%. If so, what's your %? If you give me that, I decide whether to bet against you. That's what I'm taking about. If you say you've got a 50% chance of being right, I don't bet against you. Sure, I might have a 50% chance of you being wrong, but I still wouldn't bet on it. Why would I bet on a coin flip? That's idiocy. How about three flips in a row? Bigger idiocy. No, it's only when you say that you're 80% right(EDIT: or as many clowns here have posited, 100% right ) , given your fairly weak reasoning above, that I would chose to bet against you. Why? Because in order to get me to bet, you have to give me points. 80% means you're going to give me 4-6 points. That's when I move in and take the bet...and that's why I can, and will, bet you 10k, of the many k, of other people's $ I have taken. Lifetime I'm up over $100k, if you count everything: sports betting, poker, etc. And lifetime is the measurment: you're not a winner if you won today, but are a lifetime loser. The reason for this thread: educating the 4-12 predictors...that they should never gamble. Gambling is literally putting your $ where your mouth is. The difference on this board: nobody loses anything because of their mouth. Thus, a call-out thread is necessary, so that they learn, but also because they lose something: credibility.

Okay, but, would you agree that you only have at best, a 50% chance on being "right"? See, my problem isn't with your analysis. My problem is with supposed fans that make definitive claims based on 0, or at best tangential, evidence. Tangential: we ran the last playoff team coach of out this town...because he wouldn't wear a headset. All he's done since is be a SB winning D coordinator many times over. I'm tired of tangential. I'm tired of people using the Bills as a whipping boy for their own life failures. When the Bills win...that forces far too many Bills fans to have to face the reality that their series of life choices suck. See, they need the Bills to lose...because if the Bills lose, they take comfort in at least being "not as bad as the Bills". All inferences are welcome, if not encouraged. Oh sure, they'll come to the games: why wouldn't they want reinforcement? See: inferences.

What happens if it's 8?

Yeah, and your avatar would never have given that away. Or, is this your attempt at irony? Here's irony: I do my best to explain, today, in the nicest format I am capable of, why 4-12 predictors should brush up on their analytics. And the best you can do: ignore the content and play the process game. Buddy: take a look around you. This old trick died on PPP 10 years ago. It's dying a death by a 1000 cuts this season on this board, every time the Bills win. I say again: the Bills win...and all Jerry Sullivan can do is ask why Pumpernickel(== a right click spell check on Kaepernick? ) doesn't have a job? Whataboutism. It's the primary symptom of the cognitive dissonance disease reasonable Bills fans have had to endure from unreasonable fans since preseason. The second thing we've had to endure is a phony QB controversy, when, we've seen ALL of our QBs come in and do an acceptable, if not good job, regardless of circumstance. Only a clown blames Peterson for his starting performance, when he was hit 4 times while throwing, but throws darts when he isn't being hit. And....equally...only a clown blames Tyrod for being forced to play outside his game(if they are man to man, he should look for 1 receiver...then run. Zone, he sits and waits until the underneath guy finds the seam: easy.) Anything else, in the words of Rahm Emanuel, is F'ing Retarded. Enough Whataboutism. We have 3 QBs on this team that can make plays. Contrast that with Denver. The ? is who is going to let them do what they are best at vs why are they going to insist on system over QB core competency? /////Random Crap EDIT: Don't get me started on why we finally have the power running O line that BillinNYC has been demanding for 10 years...only to try and make it, on some plays, act like the undersized, zone blocking, get to a spot first, then cut, O line that Denver ran when then won the SBs. I am a championship winning coach. In fact, the teams I've coached have never not won the whole thing. In one case, my job forced me to miss the championship game, and that baseball team put up 14 runs, because they were pissed at my bosses, then called me in Cleveland to let me know. There is never an excuse, ever, to not take the players you have and create the plan around them: see Bill Belechick vs Dennisson. I ran Syracuse's 2-3 D with an 7-9th grade basketball team. Why? Because we had a lot of big, but slow guys. The other coaches went to my ex-JV lacrosse coach, then athletic director to beat it(and keep in mind, I flew back just for practice, never mind games, because I made a commitment to my players). He did. But, remember: JV. I adjusted our D during 1 timeout. And with that adjustment, and the fast break the head coach(my employee who roped me in) engineered off the turnovers the D created, we destroyed teams. Mr. ------- had to sit there and watch, so, Mr. --------, I still own you.

Just so I don't get accused of de facto.... I ask you now: where are the 4-12 predictors going to be, if the Bills DOUBLE their "predicted" win total? (See: 8 wins) As I've said since MAY 2016....the "predictors based on 'math'" people are in a lot of trouble. Look at the words above my avatar: ask yourself, where is their credibility, and why should we believe people who utterly failed at predictive political modeling, about sports propensity? See, clowns, this entire thread has been an effort to attract and confront those who are analytically ignorant. Anyone calling me arrogant? You are merely staring into the ignorant mirror: and it's confusing you. At this point the highest propensity the Bills have is 8-8....which...is the bell curve approach I referred to pages ago, when the Bills were 5-5. This is not arrogance: it's math. You don't get to call me arrogant for educating you on the tenets of statistics. And finally: This is a subset of what I do, but, it's one of my more important skill sets. If we were talking about plumbing, I wouldn't call a plumber speaking directly about why he chose to sweat pipe here/make a joint/place a valve, arrogant. I'd say he was doing his job, then explaining it. That's what I am doing...then explaining it. You were ignorant before you posted. All I have done is merely try to give you a sense of how one correctly goes about creating a predictive model. EDIT: Well, lets cut the crap. I've been a homer Bills fan who has delighted in crushing the "realists" this season. But, as we've seen the last 24 months, and are absolutely guaranteed to see over the next 12? The "realists' are actually delusional. Events have overtaken their claims, in life, in general. I would spend more time in Elmwood Village confronting the "realists", about all sorts of things, like the stock market, the GDP, the Bills record, etc., ...but...I can do more good ignoring them and continuing my daily activities in the real world...that the "realists" deny. Hey, that's why I don't post as much anymore.

Christ. The lamedickiest thing the Ds have done...in 2 weeks...is try to turn kicking Al Franken out into a political strategy for 2018. I will disabuse you D with 1 ?: When's the last time a Democrat running for office mentioned Anthony Weiner? What, are the Dems gonna trot out Al Franken as Paladin of the Moral High Ground in 2018? Rs could only be so lucky. No, more likely, the smart Ds see to it that Al Franken is never heard from again...exactly like Anthony Weiner...until his wife's name brought his up again. This is all a hilarious hubris. Kristen Useless Gillibrand...trying to make a name for herself, after being hand-picked to take Hillary's Senate seat, because before she was a Hillary shill, who ignored the entire reason MoveOn.org exists? Ask Gregg/Rhino: would anybody in Hollywood, besides the soap operas, buy this script? Please. It's a laughable tactic. It will fail. I can prove it: let's count the # of times ANY D says the words "Al Franken" from AUG-NOV-2018. Sure they will say Roy Moore. That's beside the point. How many times will they actually invoke Franken's name?

EDIT: I've been drinking, btw. I have this...nervousness that only seems to be tamed by 2 or 12 drinks. Regardless...I forgot to mention, nice "Dumb and Dumber" reference. No, I'm saying that I will try anything once...except another guy's penis within my Area of Operation. Nothing ruins your night like having some random guy offer up his wife for rough sex, while proceeding to grab your balls. (Looking right at you, Metropol, Pittsburgh). And insult to injury: I got kicked out of that bar, and all I did was break 1 of his fingers. EDIT: Also, let's not forget the infamous tea bagging story. When I was in Philly, right around the advent of the TEA party, some hipster with blue/green hair said she wanted to teabag me. Now, I was wearing a suit, at a punk bar, and had already called all of them, with the same tattoos, hairstyles, and the rest, infinitely more conformist than I. After all, who wears a bespoke suit to a punk bar? (There's a dividing line: you either know what bespoke means, and why, or you don't) So, I thought she wanted to kick me in the nuts because I was talking up libertarian/TEA party values. What the hell else does teabag mean...to a normal person? Hence: it would be wrong to assume that I hang out with anybody. I go looking, not for trouble, but for interesting. And yeah, once I understood green/blue hair girl, we hung out.

At what point does this turn into the "Trump Kept Promises Thread", with GG turning into a pumpkin? I'm curious. I'll check back in 3 months to see how many kept vs broken. So far, this thread strains credibility. Especially given that today Trump kept a promise to recognize Jerusalem as as the Capital of Israel, after the past 3 presidents broke their specifically stated campaign promises to do so, even when Congress overwhelmingly passed a resolution to do so in 1995.

I just have to say this, because it's true, and because it's relevant to what is happening today. I am an Alpha Male, and that has attracted all sorts over the years, women and men. When I was in Philly, I routinely spent all night listening to "feminist" tripe, from "woke" women, and the Beta Males that brought to them to the bar...but, 10 minutes later, when I finished with them all verbally? 3/5 times the girl came home with me, the Beta(s) went off to to the diner, and I hung her panties on my bedpost. (Don't ask...I just do that, I have no excuse.)

Hey, for all I know, he is a she. Or, he's just a he who wants to pee in the same bathroom as 13 year old girls. I dunno. Life on the road: everybody wants to get into your pants. It's !@#$ing lonely: airports, hotels, cabs, trains, flights: those that do that, or those of us that use that; we all live as polite acquaintances for a few minutes. One thing Fight Club got right "single serving friends". Gay, Straight, doesn't matter. Lesbians have wanted to get into my pants...for reasons...that sounded reasonable after 11 Sapphire and Tonics at the hotel bar. But most of all it's the Mexican/Asian cleaning ladies. They should know that most business travelers have at least a 5th grade understanding of Spanish and/or Cantonese. They think they can talk about you, right in front of you. A few have found, CONSENSUALLY, given today's current atmosphere...that they can't, the hard way.