Interesting point, and probably close to correct, although there seem to be teams with much higher hit rates at certain positions, like Pittsburgh with WRs. What sinks bad GMs is failing to land a franchise QB and misusing high draft picks on non-premium positions (those two flaws are often closely related). For example, the Giants and Jags, teams that are still looking for a franchise QB, recently used top 4 overall picks in RBs. Washington and the Jets have drafted a lot of good defensive players over the past five years, but it’s gotten them nowhere.