mannc

Obviously, the Phins scouted Wilson last year and liked some things about him. The Titans have generally drafted very well and they liked him as a late first rounder, so he has to have some talent...

I don’t think Fields is a top 15 pick. Maybe not even first round, depending on how things shake out.

Like which ones?

As documented upthread, Simms has a very good track record when it comes to analyzing college QBs for the draft; I don't know that anyone has said he's a genius, though. And if you listen to the podcast, he actually says his goal is to become a GM someday, and therefore he doesn't make these evaluations for clickbait purposes.

I listened to the entire podcast this morning. Simms says he’s got Wilson ranked ahead of where he had Burrow and Herbert last year, and he’s got Lawrence ranked behind both of them. He also says no way in hell Jacksonville takes anyone other than Trevor Lawrence. It will be very interesting to see what the Jets do.

True, Wilson's not going to Jacksonville unless he and Urban have some sort of relationship. And I forgot about the interdivisional aspect of the trade. You might also be right about Meyer wanting to coach Lawrence, but I'd take Watson over Lawrence 10 times out of 10.

Why would you say that? I mean, it's probably not going to happen, but it's an interesting idea and it seems no less likely than Watson going to Miami or the Jets. If I'm Houston, I want something more than the first overall pick, but I can definitely see how this is an intriguing idea for both sides. That's a good point. I forgot they are in the same division. I think the same conference stuff is overrated, but same division is a whole different ball game.

Simms explained himself fully on his podcast. He convinced me, even though I haven’t seen much of Wilson. By the way, he also loves Mack Jones, and ranks him just a shade behind Lawrence and Wilson.

Think about it...how often does the first QB taken actually turn out to be the best in his draft class? It’s rare.

Excellent point. If the Jets and other teams view Wilson and Lawrence as 1 and 1a, or vice versa, then Jets would be much less likely to enter the D Watson sweepstakes.

I think he’s far from a risk-free pick.

Hey, Burrow and Herbert exceeded expectations. And it was reasonable to think Jones was going to get better after having a pretty good rookie season.

That was his initial ranking. He moved JA to QB1 before the draft.

I don’t remember Simms’s analysis of Lock, but that was a pretty terrible QB draft.

You mean before the season started and before Herbert had played a snap in the NFL? Before the draft last year, Simms had Herbert as QB2, just a shade behind Joe Burrow. He also had Tua as QB4, behind Jordan Love. Simms has been better than "decent" at evaluating college QBs for the draft lately. He had Mahomes as QB1, Josh Allen as QB 1, and last year he had Burrow and Herbert at 1A and 1B, with Tua at 4.

That's a bit of an exaggeration. The ACC ain't the SEC and Lawrence has had some not-so-great games against the best teams he's faced. More importantly, much like Tua at Alabama, Lawrence has been playing with a stacked deck his entire career. Since day one, he's been surrounded by a team comprised almost entirely of future NFL players, especially at the skill positions. I think that makes Lawrence a little tougher to evaluate.

That is the last thing Chris Simms is trying to do. He's got a great record when it comes to evaluating college QBs.

Pathetic. The Bills lost the game. End of story.

Those lists are pretty unreliable from year to year. I doubt the Bills would have been on many peoples’ list last year.

Please...

They were certainly one of the better non-playoff teams last year (they beat at least one team that finished 13-3) and they have a young QB who’s extremely promising. It’s not like he signed with the Lions...

I wouldn’t write off the Cardinals as a contender. Murray will be in his third year as a starter and their defense was already pretty good, even without Watt. I mean, they did beat the Bills, didn’t they?

Brown can make a good case. Newton? NFW.

Obviously, it's not easy to find a top 5 QB; that's why the price for a guy like Watson is so steep. But if the Texans recoup four first round picks, a mid-rounder or two, and Darnold, there is a good chance they'll end up with a better than average QB one way or the other, as well as some really good young, cheap players in the bargain. Again, they are close to rock bottom right now--winning four games with Watson--with no premium draft picks to fall back on. I think it's a chance they have to take, especially since Watson seems very determined not to play there...You use the Browns as an example, but the fact that they squandered their picks doesn't mean Casserio will. I would also point out that, as good as Watson has been, there is no guaranty he'll play at the same level for 15 or 20 more years. (See Russell Wilson) And Watson's got a slender frame and seems to absorb a lot of big hits. I've always been concerned about his longevity.

I get that. But my point is, they are in bad shape right now, even with Watson. Adding 4 first round picks, plus Darnold, could get them healthy in a hurry, especially since that would include the second overall pick this year, which they could turn into even more picks. They could turn things around pretty quickly and they will have plenty of shots at a QB...