This is the real drawback with football analytics: How reliable are numbers upon which you are basing your decisions? And as many have pointed out, every situation is different. If your defense has been unable to stop a Pat Mahomes, then you’re probably going to be more inclined to go for it on 4th down to keep the ball away from him late in the game.
In my view, the best thing about analytics is that it has caused coaches to think about every decision in a fresh light, instead of automatically doing what every other coach has done since time immemorial.
Here’s one I’d love to see more often: You score a touchdown and on the scoring play or the extra point, the other side gets a 15-yard personal foul that is enforced on the kickoff. Why don’t you go for a surprise onside kick? You’re kicking from midfield so the worst that happens is the other team gets it on their own 35…and the chances of recovering a surprise onside kick are very good. But no one ever does it.
Funny how these coaches’ futures are tied to the QBs they find themselves with. The Dolphins’ decision to draft an injured midget instead of Justin Herbert is going to haunt that franchise for a long time.