mannc

Why isn't control of the ball at the start of the game as valuable as control of the ball at the start of the second half? Why is not knowing when you'll get the ball in the second half worse than not knowing when you'll get the ball in the first half? Isn't knowing you'll get the ball to start the game a "known quantity" too? Why would it matter to your end of half strategy whether you were getting the ball to start the second half? Aren't you always going to try to score with as little time left on the clock as possible to prevent the other team from having a chance to score before halftime? I don't actually know how often teams defer vs. taking the ball to start the game, but it doesn't matter. NFL coaches are mostly followers who often do things a certain way for no very good reason. As far as I can tell, this preference to defer is all based on a 2019 article by Warren Sharp, in which he concluded--based on games played from 2016-2019--that there was a very slight advantage to be gained by deferring. That advantage is so minor that it can easily be offset by things like weather or the quality of a team's offense or defense. I've never seen Sharp's research updated so it wouldn't be surprising if an analysis of more recent NFL games came to a different conclusion. One thing that's clear is that there is no evidence to support gaining a clear advantage by deferring.

That’s simply not true

They also dropped a stinker on MNF…probably took a day or two for the lawyers to get the paperwork ready…

I’ve heard deferring gives you a very slight advantage from an analalytics standpoint, but it makes no sense and a lot of teams don’t do it. In a game like this, against a great QB, on the road, it gives the other team an opportunity to get a quick two-touchdown lead (like what happened to the Bills in Cinci last year) and your entire offensive game plan just went out the window. There might be some games where it makes sense, but not this one.

I know for sure that if the Bengals win the toss, they’re taking the ball, just like they did last year. They are confident and aggressive. We need to match that.

Nonsense. There is no evidence whatsoever to support that notion. We want to take the fight to these guys. We have the best QB in the world. Get the ball, go no-huddle all the way down the field and score on them. Then do it again, and again. That's the only way we're going to beat them.

One thing I don't want to see on Sunday night is us winning the coin flip, deferring, and watching Burrow take the Bengals down the field for a touchdown or even a FG. If we win the flip, we need to get the ball first and take it to these guys. Show some f**king balls and confidence, McDermott!

I can't remember ever disliking a player as much as I dislike Kelce...It was reported that Mahomes was also at the WS on Friday and then showed up sick for the game in Denver on Sunday.

Looks like Miami left Monday for Germany and KC is not leaving until Thursday night...will be interesting to see if that makes a difference in this case.

Mike’s son, I think

Let me know when the Bills actually beat Jacksonville. They were never really in the game.

Outside of Josh Allen the Bills just aren’t a very talented team…when they run up against a team with another great QB and a talented roster, they will not be able to compete unless Josh performs miracle work, which is not impossible. See Jacksonville game, although Lawrence of course is not yet at the same level as Burrow or Allen.

Neither was going to be re-signed so might as well build draft capital. Owner is a big analytics guy. Makes sense for Washington. I have no idea what the Bears are doing, though…GM and coach trying to save their jobs, I guess.

Bill Barnwell just wrote a long and very good article on espn.com about the McDaniel/Ziegler regime. Summary: If it weren’t for their bad decisions, they wouldn’t have made any at all…the team is in deep trouble and it will take years to dig out. May be forced to trade Maxx Crosby this offseason just to add draft capital in order to rebuild.

Jimmy G’s days as a starting QB in the NFL are over after this year. He’s been badly exposed and of course can’t stay healthy. I suspect he will hang on for a few more years as a backup because he seems to be a good guy and very popular in the locker room.

Come on now…were you really looking forward to watching Dane Jackson get absolutely torched by Tee Higgins and Jamar Chase this Sunday?

Howell is not a rookie

Sweat is good but not great and his rookie deal is over. Plus Washington has a ton of DL talent…

Bears needed this...that defense is embarrassing. Will they try to recover that second round pick (and more) by dealing Johnson?

Will be interesting to see when the teams fly into Germany...I'm guessing neither team will wait until Thursday night/Friday morning.

The Bills have played very poorly against the Jets the last two years. I can almost guaranty it will be a close game when they come to Buffalo in a few weeks.

Jets without Rodgers are still a problem. They are 4-3 and are a very tough out. They are also a bad matchup for the Bills.

Vegas has liked the Bills all year, yet we’re only 3-5 ATS

Bengals just look like a bad matchup for the Bills. I can’t imagine what Higgins and Chase might do to this defense if we aren’t able to get a lot pressure on Burrow …Bills best chance is to stick with the no-huddle and try to outscore them, which won’t be easy because the Bengals defense is no joke. This team owned us last year and I’m not sure I see any reason to think it will be different this year.

Then they should say so, instead of saying they are showing game day highlights.