mannc

It sounds like a lot, but as you pointed out, a mediocre Bears team trading two of their first round picks was giving up quite a bit more...

Some good analysis here...I don't think people recognize how de-valued the Bills' first round picks are. This year's pick is 30. In order to move up to 14 (middle of the round) in a normal draft, it would probably cost the Bills an additional future first round pick. Last year the Bills picked up barely any draft capital to move back from 28 into the second round. That means the Bills' first round pick this year is not much different from a second. And I'm pretty sure NFL GM aren't assuming the Bills' first round pick next year will be much better, especially if they get Myles Garrett. So in other words, 2025 and 2026 first round picks from the Bills are worth about the same as the Cowboys' first round pick this year (11 overall).

Like Rob Johnson, Milton’s perceived value shot up after an excellent performance in a totally meaningless end-of-season game…

Rob Johnson vibes...

Shocking. He seemed to be a solid guy...

And the o-line, where we’ve never used a first round pick, is top three in the league.

Everyone said Worthy could hold up physically in the NFL, but didn't miss a snap because of injury this year and he was largely injury-free at NUniv. of Texas, despite very heavy usage. He's going to be a problem for a long time...thanks, Beane.

Yeah, a real first ballot Hall of Fame loser…

It has not been confirmed that Garrett in fact has a no-trade clause in his contract. Some sources deny it.

Not sure if it was luck, but the Bills did not have a single lost fumble by any non-quarterback over the entire 20-game season...an absolutely incredible statistic.

With Garrett, they would be in playoff contention, which might be good enough in Garrett’s mind.

I agree with that, but I don’t always believe it when a guy like Garrett says “I want to compete for a championship.” I suspect he could convince himself that the Cowboys are competitive enough if he gets to play in a nice, warm dome, in his hometown, for the most glamorous franchise in football.

Importantly, the three years of dominant play we could expect from Garrett coincide with the remaining years of peak Josh Allen. (Of course Josh will continue to play well late into his 30s, but it won’t be like what we have now.). I think you gotta take the shot. The problem is that our first round picks are devalued…

Garrett is considerably older than Mack was when he was traded to Chicago...and he's probably going to sign a four-year contract with $100 million in guarantees. The Mack trade would seem to represent the absolute most Cleveland could get.

Dallas had a pretty bad year but they are hardly a bottom-feeder and I think Garrett is from Texas…it’s still a glamor franchise.