Reed83HOF

Average Yards/reception hasn't changed. Josh btw was not really showing much until after he came back from his injury. This isn't about Zay Jones either, it was more to illustrate that what the production is during first couple years of a TEs career is comparable to, a guy who many aren't sure if he makes the roster.

It has really made me re-think this position. Especially when I started to look into career stats, 500+ receptions, 50+ TDs etc = there are not many in NFL history ~11-14 of them with only 8 in the HOF. For a first rounder who catches passes I would want someone who will have more that 500 career catches and 50 TDs, especially in the top 10. I agree 100% with your conclusion. @BADOLBILZ has the best positions on what should be taken in round wise (QB, Pass Rusher, CB, LT, WR are Rd1 one guys - I'm close with this not exact LOL). There is a reason for this, they impact your chances of winning and losing each game the most and can contribute quickly. This matches up well with the free agency $$ you see when these guys hit the marketplace.

The purpose of this post was to spur discussion on this topic and positional value in RD1. As I have said I like Hock and have high on my list of prospects based on talent, but there are some issues. The general thought on RD1 players is that they should be immediate contributors in today's NFL, it isn't the pre-free agency and pre-salary cap era, where they can sit on the bench and ripen; they need to play now. TE production there first few years is generally very low, the need to go through the learning curve of playing OL and WR in the NFL - that is 2 positions they need to become proficient in. TE in the first round is a luxury pick and contribute very little during their rookie contract. If you can get 90% of the player in RD2 or lower, the contributions you rely on to win now are lessened, they have more time to develop and the cost of the contract is minimized so you can spend more on the premium positions that are able to contribute to winning now. Taking a player in RD1 to play in the long run is a waste of RD1 resources.

Comparisons are tough and are based on past draft reports. Comparisons do not carry a ton of weight for me, especially when they compare someone to a HOFer

Beane and the rest of the FO was not here in 2017, so Tre and that draft is not a valid example of how Beane moves in the draft. All we really have is last year's draft, to look at and try to see if he means what he says. I agree and I put more value into his actions over his words, right now all we have is words on how he views trade downs. I wasn't trying to refute what you were saying, just trying to add the only comments I can find that relate to trade downs.

BTW I really like Hock, loved Shockey, like Howard, Engram and Njuko. The issue is the production at that draft position, the cost and the other players at more impactful positions.The positional value just does not justify the investment when there are other players who will add more production and value over the life of their contract

BTW your concern is a real one and one that prevents him from being labeled as the top player in the draft.

Out of this list only Vernon Davis and Greg Olsen stand a chance at the HOF There are only 8 TEs in the HOF as on April 23, 2019 and you are willing to put 50% of your list in the HOF or call them a borderline HOF career? If you are drafting a player in the first round, or even the top half of the first round I would want more production than Zay Jones out of them. Zay's contract: OJ Howard David Njoku Evan Engram

For comparison sake: So is this enough production for your first rd TE for the first few years of their career?

You are ok with waiting 2-4 years for your TE to develop and contribute more than 40 catches and 500 yards? This is the level of production you can expect with your first rd pick:

A better question would be: What level of production did they provide while on their rookie contract? Another question could be: What other players at premium positions were passed over by the teams who drafted TEs in RD1?

Let's see the success rate of first round TEs? Who are the players that were OK (TOP 10 players for a 3-6 year period who flirted with the top 5 at times? Very few outright busts? The TE position is overvalued on this board and by some teams. So here is a little TE history First round TEs in NFL history 1.) Games Played...In the 1997 draft, Kansas City selected Tony Gonzalez with the 13th overall pick and to date, his 270 games played are the most for a first round tight end. 2.) Receptions... Gonzalez leads all first round tight ends and all at his position with 1,325 catches. The second-highest total by a first round tight end is Greg Olson's 666, followed by Ozzie Newsome at 662. 3.) Receiving Yards...The first round benchmark is Gonzalez, with 15,127 yards, with fellow first-rounders Ozzie Newsome (7,980) and Greg Olson (7,847) the only others to gain at least 7,500 yards. 4.) Touchdowns...Among first round tight ends, Gonzalez again is in sole possession for the title with 111 scores. Vernon Davis tops active first-rounders with 62, followed by Greg Olson with 57. Dallas Clark is the only other first round tight end with at least fifty touchdowns (53). Now a little more info: 1.) NFL teams have utilized 978 draft selections to select players at the tight end position, a) 740 out of the 978 appeared in an NFL game. b.) 83 in < 10 games 2.) 11 TEs (in NFL history) played in at least 200 games, a.) 3 are HOFers, Tony Gonzalez (270), Jackie Smith (210) and Shannon Sharpe (204) 3.) 500+ receptions (in NFL history) = 14 TEs, a.) 4 of the 14 are HOFers Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, Kellen Winslow and Ozzie Newsome. b.) Gonzalez receptions (1,352), Jason Witten (Dallas; 2003-17, 19) is the only other tight end with at least 1,000 (1,152). c.) Sharpe (815), Greg Olson (666), Newsome (662) and Jimmy Graham (611) are the only other tight ends to inch past the 600-catch level. 4.) 9 TEs in NFL history at least 7,000 yards receiving: a.) Gonzalez ( 15,127 ), Shannon Sharpe (10,060 yards), Ozzie Newsome (7,980) and Jackie Smith (7,918). The only other tight end with at least 10,000 yards (12,448) is Jason Witten. b.) Rob Gronkowski, (7,861 yards). The other three members are all currently active - Greg Olson has gained 7,847 yards, followed by Vernon Davis (7,439) and Jimmy Graham (7,436). 5.) 12 TEs (in NFL history) have at least 50TDs a.) Gonzalez (111 TDs). Gronkowski (79 TDs) and Jimmy Graham leads all active tight ends with 71. Shannon Sharpe (62 TDs). b.) Only others with 60+ TDs are: Witten (68), Vernon Davis (62) and former Redskin Jerry Smith (60). c.) Greg Olson (57) Wesley Walls (54) Dallas Clark (53) Ben Winter Coates (50) 6.) Except for Sharpe (seventh round), Jerry Smith (ninth) and Coates (fifth), all members of the 50-Touchdown Club went during the first three rounds of the draft. Edit: @Nihilarian @Mojo44@billsfan1959 Sorry I don't see the value in Round1 and history as a predictive indicator of RD1 success for a TE is pretty damn bleak

For the contract he signed, he's a leader and a leader would be there. It's disappointing, you would think he would want to start off on the right foot with his new teammates What does this have to do with his rap album?

Teams do take TEs in RD, but the relative positional value for the pick and the production received during their rookie contract is almost always not worth it. Like your post?

Do a comparison for those other position on the learning curve and getting value out of their contracts in RD1and let's compare. I would be willing to bet that it isn't anywhere near as compelling as this....Read the article

I entirely agree! He has to have good hands to handle the rickets coming at him from Allen - no body catchers need apply. Also I prefer good YAC, I don't want someone who will catch it and fall right over (i'm looking at you Scott Chandler)

I know - I wanted you to see that

There is a path for Oliver, N'Keal and Sternberger They were Sunday - I took Bosa

Chances sure seem to be greater outside of RD1 Edit: purpose of this isn't to troll or anything like that. I found it a very interesting article that made a lot of great points about this position. A rookie TEhas a lot on their plate and you rarely see the RD1 guys work out on their first contract. For every Shockey, you're stumbling across Jerramy Stevens, Marcedes Lewis (Breakout YR 5), Jermaine Gresham, Daniel Graham, Kyle Brady (Breakout YR 7) etc who disappointed on their rookie deals.

Outside of the quarterback position, tight ends have the steepest learning curve when transitioning to the NFL. The reason it can take years for a player to acclimate to an offense and develop into a starter is that the position demands a player to be a dependable piece in both the running and passing game. That means understanding the blocking scheme and how to read defenses from a blocking and passing game perspective. It's also a time for these 21-22-year olds, who are competing against the most athletic and skilled players they've ever faced, to continue to fill out their frame and learn technique because there is zero room for error in the trenches. Then there is always the time it takes to polish your route running, possibly expanding your route tree and gaining rapport with your quarterback. Until a player can develop an all-around game they'll be pigeonholed into a limited role. Drafting and developing a tight end is the ultimate patience play and it can understandably be uncomfortable and difficult to hold strong when you see other first-rounders become instant impact players. The Lions are a perfect example of this. They drafted Eric Ebron 10th overall in 2014 and low and behold the next seven picks would make a Pro Bowl while still on their rookie deal. Those players selected would include the likes of Aaron Donald and Odell Beckham. Last offseason, Detroit decided to move on from Ebron as they determined that he wasn't worth the price tag of his 5th-year option ($8.25M). Both the franchise and the player are in a tough spot. Eric Ebron arguably wasn't worth paying $8.25M but he also was progressing like the majority of successful tight ends do. And that's exactly the point! It is really worth investing your most important draft asset into a player who may take years to develop and you may not see the benefit until four years down the road or until their second contract? Is there a better use of your resources? Greg Olsen has a similar story to Ebron. He was taken 31st overall in the 2007 draft by the Chicago Bears. He put up respectable production his first four years and heading into his 5th season he was shipped off to Carolina where he continued to grow and later became a Pro Bowler and All-Pro on his 2nd and 3rd contracts. http://www.optimumscouting.com/news/replacing-gronkowski

“Let’s first talk about going down,” Beane said. “If you’re sitting at a position and you’ve got one guy sitting on the board when you’re getting close to being on the clock and you really like him and value how he fits where you are, first round, second round. If you trade down now you’re basically saying… you may as well trade down another round because if you trade four or five spots back the odds of that one guy being down there are not very good. “If you have five to seven guys and somebody wants you to move back five to six spots, although it’s close, you still have a shot to get one of those guys you like. It really goes back to following your board.” “Let’s just say you were at pick 25 and you have a guy in the top tier of your draft board. You think he’s top 10 (talent),” Beane said. “If you have a guy in the top tier by himself and you think he’s a rare impact player at his position, that might be the time to make a move up.” “You have to consider what the cost would be,” said Beane. “First, is there a team willing to do it? And then what is the cost? Is the cost too much where it jeopardizes the rest of your draft or potentially future drafts?”