Reed83HOF

He's going to be better than a lot of people expect. His injury, if truly a thing, sucks since there is a chance he won't play (much) this year

Don't forget, that if you spend a first round pick on the player; that guy is playing regardless of talent at times (depending on GM/owner dynamics). You see it time and time again in the league.

Kelce seems to be the anomaly - crap I forgot to paste his #s in. How much of that falls to Andy Reid and such? Great example though and the only one who really stands out quickly. The issue is it seems looking across to broad spectrum of TEs that it takes somewhere between 2-4 years if they become that player everyone wants for a TE. The names everyone wants rarely are the first rounders when they were drafted. These teams appears to be following the premise of positional valuation and knowing that you can take a shot at someone who has 90% of the first round guys potential and allowing them time to grow over that 2-4 period, whereas the RD1 guys are generally expected to contribute right away. There is a difference between drafting in the top half of RD1 and the bottom half. The teams on the bottom half should at least have better talent and had a better season, you can assume that they have more skill players and well-wounded out rosters and they need for the first RD1 guy to contribute at a high level right away is not there. The teams on the top half of the draft have less elite talent and that is where the TE becomes a luxury pick that the team can't afford.

"Their facilities are amazing" "Top notch". Says he might have to watch some film on the now-retired Kyle Williams to see how he lasted in the league so long. They scheme great, it fits me , they need a 3 technique. Also says they have a unique opportunity where a guy retired and they need someone to come in and play right away, it would be a blessing

The smoke is in full force now, I would be shocked if QBs shot up the board, they didn't last year and the class was better IMO. That being said I sure hope they do. Yes I want a top tier pass rusher, but an OT will be very nice consolation prize. I will be pissed if Dan Jeremiah is correct and we trade back and end up with a CB in RD1

I'm not sure you get the point on value Travis Kelce 2018 150 targets - Drafted 3rd rd 2013 Zach Ertz 2018 156 targets - Drafted 2nd rd 2013 George Kittle 2018 136 targets - Drafted 5th rd 2017 Rob Grokowski 2017 105 targets - Drafted 2nd rd 2010 So why do I need a TE drafted in RD1, let alone at pick #9? As stated above, OJ Howard had similar comments about him as Hock and other highly rated TEs the last 10 years. A TE does not become reliable within his first couple years, look at the stats for all of them! Their production is amazingly similar to Zay Jones's first 2 years. Very few in NFL history have over 500 receptions and 50 TDs out of the 948 drafted and only 8 are in the HOF. Look at who is listed as top TEs and they are not RD1 players (with a rare exception). Look at the RD1 TEs and look when they became productive, their production does not equal the value of a first round selection. And QBs shouldn't be drafted in the first round, neither should DE, nor DL, nor CBs, now WRs, nor OT, nor OG, nor LB, nor P, nor K etc. Going off of your premise: All round valuations based on positions are "non-starter as there is absolutely no correlation between the history of drafting tight ends any position (in any round) and where Hockenson any player should be selected or how successful he will be. All the rest is pure speculation, such as your assertion he " he probably won't light the league up next year." People are welcome to their opinions; however, trying to wrap them up in some sort of scientific/statistical confirmation is, IMO, ridiculous." Now that is a ridiculous statement.

This is correct. Nowhere has it ever been said that you don't need a TE or the Bills should never have one and I believe everyone is in agreement with that...

Or the redskins/cowboys

https://twitter.com/ProFootballTalk/status/1121117502908583942

Well...

Pisses me off because I really want Oliver, I don't want to be stupid with a trade either. This is our best chance at an elite pass rusher IMO

I entirely could see us going Greedy and Rock Ya or even a Safety after Greedy. I would turn my TV off, shake my head and go onto something else - par for the course at that point.

Meh - I'm not looking at him to be a leader on this team. What I would like to hear is that he is getting together with Allen and company to work on developing some chemistry.

Williams, Bosa, Oliver, or Allen - we need a pass rush and we need a stud

I'm impressed

No I don't believe he did, however he is not being paid the Bell contract and he isn't the #1 WR on the team

Shaw said: "the Bills just need to have receivers who know how to run routes and hold on to the ball" Being able to hold on to the ball is a prerequisite for a WR. Look at the top dynamic WRs in the NFL - how many SBs do those teams have with them on it? Look at what NE does year in year out "Receivers get open based on scheme, and a well-run offense with a QB who knows what he's looking at always gets a receiver open somewhere."

The Tyler Kroft signing buys you time to develop a TE, who can excel in all 3 areas Beane looks at; developmental prospects simply are not to be taken in RD1 unless your team is built well enough and has had enough success you can afford that luxury; the Bills are not that team.

I'm in 100% agreement. I get the arguments on the pro-TE guys side of the fence; they can certainly be game changers, they create mismatches and can open up the field up. I am all for having one or 2 and I want them on my team. The TE we signed in FA will give us a couple years to groom someone we presumably draft this year, waiting a couple years for the first rounder to be an everyday player and impact the win column is not what I want out of a first rounder. What Beane has said about TE's this offseason: 1.) “To me, you draft the best player available,” Beane said. “If the so-called premium positions are gone, or if you don’t have a guy that is up there at a premium position, you shouldn’t take him.” 2.) Beane said he breaks down tight ends in three categories: pass catcher, run blocker, and pass blocker. “So as we’re going through these tight ends those are the three areas we focus on,” Beane said. “We did privates with certain guys and we went to pro days with guys from a lot of positions and that position as well.” 3.) "There's some guys that are some really good blockers but maybe they're not as good as receivers. There's some guys that you really don't want to block in a six tech but they're great in the passing game. So similar to receivers, there's different flavors at tight end and we've done our homework there. Free agency will be first, but the draft, there's some depth at tight end. From my point of view, and same as free agency, there's some guys that are really good athletes that maybe we need to improve their blocking. Or maybe they weren't asked to block, so we’ve got to do some more research and maybe they can once they’re taught, but there will be a growth opportunity for them if given the opportunity, whatever team they're on.” 4.) “If there’s truly depth at any position,” he said, “then that allows you push that need down the draft.” I think we can all agree on what the premium positions are (QB, PR, CB, OT, and to a degree WR) I'm not trying to convince anyone to change their viewpoint and agree with me. I am hoping that some of our fellow posters are able to see and understand the flip side of the coin and have a healthy discussion. It makes us all better!

It's not about redoing a draft. What did those players contribute in their first 2-4 years in the league? Who are the numerous TEs who had a huge impact early on and what was the roster like on those teams? The production out of a first rounder is just not quite there... Gronk Ertz Shockey

Who are the 15 and what are their stats there first 2-4 years in the league? What other impact players who would contribute to wins or losses were bypassed to pick these players? I'm not doing the homework on your claim, show me the data...