Reed83HOF

100% agree on our terrible wrs, that is why I'm more willing to go after a Hooper in fa, cheaper option to add a pass catcher and double te sets if knox can catch are a pain to defend. I would keep enough ammo to get another project wr in the draft and we have plenty to trade the 4, 5s and 6s to get back to rd3. Also we dont need a megatron...

I wouldn't even say it's a possible firing, the key is being more often right than wrong, which Beane thus FAs has been. You just have to be smart with the risks you take. We have a filled out roster and teams actually claim our cuts now lol. Obviously you can't do this every year, but if a window opens where it makes sense you have to look at it.

Where was Daboll and oc in college again? Any WRs coming from that school? Edit: also see Brady, Thomas this oastbyear and the frustrations with his WRs this year. I do believe the chargers run the EP system as well

Is that like Tre on Twitter arguing with Bills fans about trading Mahomes for him?

He is a great prospect if it was us 1 year ago and I love him for Denver in RD2. You also have to factor in, we need to really start to understand what we have in Josh, years 4 & 5 are right around the corner. Do you want to get stuck with an Andy Dalton/Goff or do you want to be sure he is the guy? I enjoy this part of the offseason, because of all of the various nuances. Once we can get through the first week or so of UFA we will have a good picture as to where we are going. You should check out the Shenault thread, there is some good stuff in there from Bandit & Badol

Cap space as of now and the next 3 years is not an issue, granted you have a lot less players under contract (obviously) $90M this year, $186M next and then like 13 players signed in 2022 and we have $355M in space. It comes down to how do you want to construct your roster and what positions are you willing to pay a premium on (I think we agree on those BTW)? For arguments sake OBJ cost CLE RD1, RD3 and Peppers and the cost of $90M for OBJ - would you do RD1, RD3 and Poyer and $90 for OBJ or do you do RD1 & RD2 and RD4 with a 5th yr option on CeeDee Lamb where you can spread out the cap hits over the next few years as you resign your players. We aren't paying 2 safeties $11M each or a 3rd LB more than $2M a year... I almost think in any scenario I chose option 2. I would even ride with Shaq at DE if we struck out on every other Edge in UFA and try to line up for one in the 2021 draft

Tee Higgins will not be a Bill. I almost think that is who Beane talked about when he said he saw an SEC WR who only plays outside. He either goes up for the WR or it is a non WR at #22 and he moves up in to the top of RD2 for the WR - the only issue I see there is the teams that draft in the top of RD1 are pushing the WR need to RD2, which is going to create issues for us and could force us into over-drafting a WR at #22 - a truly dreadful situation IMO. The way he talked about Josh needing more weapons he can trust really makes me feel like he is going to swing high for a guy, unless he grabs an AJ Green in FA who can buy time for a second rounder to develop, but I really don't want another Zay Jones project guy and I don't like Cooper...

The wash out rate in RD 1 is poor scouting, relying on projections without enough information to back it up and reaching to fill a need - See CJ Spiller & Aaron Maybin. Football IQ plays a lot into it as well See Ledois McKelvin, CJ Spiller. The washout rates you see are fgor the Marquise Lee's Kelvin Benjamin's and players who are outside of the tier 1 groups. People hate on Sammy but he sill still be a productive player in the league for awhile. I also question his football IQ. In RD1, especially the top of it, you draft high-floor high-ceiling players on athletic potential. It's not that Sammy was a bad pick, that is the guy you make a move for, sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't. That is how the draft works. There bust rate always seems higher in RD1 than the other rounds, but there are much fewer great WRs (who generally take more time to develop) in the latter rounds and the wash out rate round after round is awful as well.

So here is Beane on WRs for a few weeks back https://theathletic.com/1554270/2020/01/22/what-brandon-beane-is-looking-for-in-wide-receiver-prospects-at-the-senior-bowl/ Beane and Sean McDermott have both acknowledged the importance of surrounding Josh Allen with more playmakers he can trust, more weapons who can open up a passing offense that ranked 23rd in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Recognizing a need is one thing; finding the players to fill that need is another. So far under Beane, the Bills haven’t drafted a receiver before the sixth round. McDermott took Zay Jones in the second round in 2017. This is why I am expecting a big change this year for this position. It has simply not been invested in with elite athletic talent. Beane’s scouting philosophy is rooted in a few basic principles: 1.) Get an in-person look at players. Whether that’s a live game during the fall or an event like the Senior Bowl, Beane likes to see how he moves around up close, understand how he interacts with other players and takes to coaching, feel the way he handles his opponents. 2.) Likes to meet a player off the field. He routinely couches his opinion on prospects or position groups in a given draft class if he hasn’t yet sat down and met with any of the players in a private setting. 3.)looking for the right personality traits to make sure he’s drafting a player who is both an extreme competitor taking football seriously and also one who will assimilate well to the locker room culture the team has in place. 4.) Football IQ & the White board - we have heard all about this over the last 2 drafts for our RD1 & RD2 guys 5.) In college football, receivers rarely face press coverage or complex coverage schemes. Not many get the opportunity to run a diverse route tree. The nuances of route running aren’t of the utmost importance with so much open space in secondaries. Beane comments: “We were just talking about this because, for a lot of these guys, it’s the first time they’ve faced press coverage,” Beane said. “You want to see how they do and how they react. There’s so much free release in a spread offense, so how is a guy going to deal with the length and the strength of some of these corners that play in the league? Can he get off press or is this guy a slot only? There are some good guys here where you know he’s never going to win outside. There’s a certain value you put on a slot-only guy. They have value, but they’re less versatile. “There’s that, plus the coverages. NFL coverages are way more disguised, harder for these guys to read. And there are certain route concepts where a guy does need to know the coverage to know what he’s going to do. He may have options in his route based off of Cover 2 or Cover 3, man or zone.” “Some of these schools, we joke that the guy has three routes: a go, a stop and a curl,” Beane said. “There’s a lot more intricacies when they get to the NFL with the route running. So physically, can they do it? Do they have the skill set, or is this a straight line guy who can’t get do anything else? Also, you have to figure out the mental. Are they only lining him up on the left side. I’ve seen a guy one year in the SEC where they only lined this guy up on his sideline, so they could tell the guy what they were running or somebody would give a signal of what the defense was. You have to figure out whether it’s the system or are they trying to hide the player?” I think this is Tee Higgins, he mostly runs out the outside and isn't an over the middle type guy. Lots of outside stuff “It’s like quarterback,” Beane said. “Quarterbacks used to never make an impact before Year Three. The game has evolved. When you have guys as talented as some of these guys coming out and there’s seven-on-seven leagues growing up, the passing game is way more advanced than it was for guys coming into the league. Guys are more exposed to the passing game and different coverages.” My Rankings/Rambled Thoughts I actually can see Ruggs being the darling of the class in hindsight; he is one of the most explosive WRs I have ever seen - it's not like Goodwin who was a track star who couldn't catch. His speed is not that far off of Usain Bolt's and he is a real life functioning WR. His ability to stop and immediately start right back up and blow by someone is crazy. He isn't just a fast guy, he makes back shoulder catches, he catches with his hands, he is a great run blocker, he can take the top off a defense and actually catch the ball, he scores a ton of TDs. A 3-year player and a 2 year starter. He fits our RD1 draft profile high ceiling ridiculous athlete. Ruggs improved form last year to this year. Biggest issues are working on his overall release techniques, which hasn't required too much development thus far because of his explosiveness and his not as polished of a route tree like Jeudy & Lamb, but he has improved over his 2 years as a starter. CeeDee is a complete WR, reminds me of Hopkins, just doesn't have the explosion athletically that Ruggs has, but is a more polished player. This is exactly the high-floor high-ceiling player Beane loves. He is actually the ideal build and WR everyone even on this site would agree with and want. This is the best WR in the class and what I actually gave up in our mock might be what we really have to pay. RD1, RD2 and RD4 if we can get 2011 Atl pricing. Jeudy - the guy who I loved going into this season, outstanding route runner, which fits us ideally well, but he isn't great with contested catches and can have some drop issues at times. My ranking is Lamb, Ruggs Jeudy. Next crew is Higgins, who I just am not into. Not a good route tree, not as athletic as other WRs, some release issues, gets dinged up and not want we need in a #1 IMO. Justin Jefferson is a very solid #2 guy for me. I like Reagor, but he lacks some physicality when he plays, he isn't a blocker like Ruggs, lacks a diverse route tree, which means he won't be a day 1 difference maker and will take some time. Aiyuk I like but he has to work on his hands and not letting the ball get on top of him, which will be an issue with Josh.

FWIW I'm probably 1000000% wrong, but it makes a lot of sense to swing big this year. Josh is still on his rookie deal, we have $90M in cap space this year, $182M next and $355M in 2022. Go get him that guy to actually take a step forward this year, fill the roster and upgrade with the $90 million in FA and then start resigning your own next year and the year after.

As I spend more time looking and thinking about the WR topic -is this the year we make a big move up the board to add premium talent to the offense via a higher draft choice (which we have not done since Allen)? I see a top 3 who can come in very quickly and fit what we do and then I see others who will take time to grow (hopefully) in what we want? I get that not everything is created equally, but Falcons gave up a RD1, RD2 and RD4 to go from #26 to #6 for Julio = does Beane actually grow a set like that this year?

no

Where did the Oriel go? I understand they just suck also, but it is just about Baseball season

It's tough man. I'm thrilled the season went as well as it did; the issue with having a good season is this. Going into the year looking at all of the potential question marks on offense - will the Oline gel, how will the TEs work out, what will RB end up like, you knew that Beasley and Brown would help, but it was still an underwhelming WR group that lacked true star power and that played out during the season. Beane was as honest as anyone could be at the end of season presser - we didn't score enough points. What held us back on most of our losses this year, the inability to move the ball and score points? A lot of that was from the lack of pass catchers on this team and not having a threat other than Josh to game plan against. The "problem" you run into in having a good amount of wins is sliding down in the draft where you can get the right talent that you need to get that talent it will cost you and you have to weigh it all out. If we were right around pick#15 it would be ideal, now to make a move, that you really should make - it is going to cost you, but we have a very solid roster and not a ton of needs. so you can be a bit ballsier than you normally would be. We are not close to the the 2014 Bills roster, but closer to the 2011 Atlanta Falcons who gave up Pick#26 (RD1), pick#59(RD2) & pick#124(RD4) for pick#6 to take Julio. I'm stealing this from Bandit in another thread, but don't discount what is required of a WR in Daboll's offense - they have to read the D and know what route to run against it; we don't run the wildcat, or other gadget plays etc. Learning a route tree takes time, being able to make the correct reads takes time etc. How do you fix what the GM said is your biggest need to score points? What are the underlying causes of that - lack of a big time player to draw coverage away from your #2 & #3 WRs, your developing TE with iffy hands and one with a bad ankle. The Watkins issue was trying to force a WR on a crappy QB choice in the previous draft. I hate looking at these old drafts, our FO was so awful it makes me sick to my stomach. There were so many holes, but Mack was the correct choice. At that point WR was a premium position that we did not need. This year, it is the exact position we need and it is for the difference maker like a Julio and not someone who needs to marinate for a few years. I really think Beane is going to swing big, if, he fills the rest of the holes in FA. We have not spent a premium pick on offense except for Allen. I think you chose right for GB, their D still has quite away to go and limits what the offense can really do. You can't push talent up the board to fill a need.

Not beating you up sweetie!

Hopkins was the year before in 2013. Mayock's rankings: Top100 Nolan Nawrocki - guy is a legend Walter football Besides this board - who has Higgins and Shenault as a tier 1 WR?

It's not that I don't like the guy. What I am looking at is our immediate deficiency of scoring points, how a WR functions & basic skills needed in our offense and I can't see him contributing right away. The route running is an issue and most likely why Foster doesn't get on the field. Bandit has said it in other posts here, but in Daboll's system WRs have to make reads at the LOS and adjust their routes base don the read. I don't see him contributing much this year in that regard, as a jet sweep guy sure, WR screen guy sure; at this point and through his rookie year I am not sure he is much better than McKenzie impact wise.

My point is this looking at first or second or third etc. round grades is important, but looking at what separates elite talent from the non-elite talent, Higgins, Shenault, Aiyuk etc are not considered the elite talents. Some will bust, some won't; but they will have a longer period of time before they grow and contribute. A portion of this board, is #1 afraid to move around in the draft, most likely scarred by the Sammy trade in 2014, #2 overvalues the number of draft picks in relation to talent level on this team. The Sammy trade: That Sammy trade was bad because the top 3 tier 1 elite WRs were on the board and we moved up 5 spots for him. The fact is that at pick 9 we would likely have had the choice between Evans & OBJ, if TB did indeed take Sammy, or it would have been Sammy vs OBJ there most likely - still getting your elite WR. Revionist history says well Landry and Admas turned out good in RD2 - Landry ran a 4.77 at the combine and only had 12 starts in his college career. Adams had a ton of question marks as well and that is what you expect in the Tier 2 guys - they take longer. I'm not taking a player like that at pick#22 - those are the guys who bust see Aaron Maybin. Now to address the draft pick hoarding: Beane has already come out and said he won't use the late round picks as they won't make the team. The roster is filled out and missing elite talent on offense. Who is our elite talent on offense? Who do the DCs game plan around - not one person other than Allen's running ability, we are not scoring more points like this. Can anyone answer this question? We are not gaining separation at the WR position, we are not getting YAC; we were 29th in that category this year. Those are 2 of the most important categories since that opens up the rest of the field and players who are actually pretty good at having a cushion around them and rate highly in the league (5th & 9th IIRC). We didn't score enough points to win in Houston - what WRs can come in in the draft and immediately rectify these issues and start day 1? It's not Shenault The deep draft class argument: A deep draft class for one position says there is more talent overall available, but elite talent is still elite talent and those numbers are still limited. Would you rather have a WR who contributes immediately on day 1 or do you want to wait until 2021 to 2022 for them to develop, because that is what a deep draft is...More talent throughout, that will take longer to develop. It will also allow the teams picking in front of us to chase the other elite talent at positions that are more critical for their team, such as QB, OL, Edge, DB. this will push those 3 WRs down further since they will use the depth to take a WR who will likely take longer to develop and have other knocks against them in the tier 2 and lower groups. Reality at pick #22: BPA at Pick#22 is very likely a CB/S who will be a tier 1 talent and you will be reaching for the tier 2 WRs at that pick, who can be had in RD2. At this point, it would be better to trade up there in RD2 for that player. The issue is that tier 2 WR will not help you as much this year, but possibly in 2021/2022, vs a high ceiling elite athlete like the other 3 who are more refined and developed. I purposely selected the Bills to push this very point. In this scenario do you overdraft the WR vs top talent in another position (of need, lesser, but still a need) and not address the main reason you didn't win against Houston or any of the playoff teams in 2019 for that matter? You can substitute DE here for CB, but it is likely that those top tier guys won't be there either. Again, which one of them will help us score more points in 2020 immediately?

Sammy was tough, I thought Mack, but you have the top 3 guys there and could have taken any of them and kept that 1st year pick the following year, which we knew would be a premium pick. It was dumb, but Sammy was a great prospect. Actually on my board it is Lamb, Ruggs is not far behind and then Jeudy. I was high on Jeudy going into the season, but he has slid down a hair and I would move for any of them around pick#13. They are all top tier talents and better than the next grouping, a lot less question marks, higher ceilings, less development time. Remember true cost to move to #16 based on our trade in 2018 was #22 & #65 (3rd - very high third) = #16 plus their 5th RD Pick#154. The difference between pick 15 & 16 is 50 points, which is equal to a mid 4th and we have one that is worth 47 pts with pick #125

I'm comfortable with these, the caveat is that they go to the right situations and not rot with a crap team, which can easily happen. Also, crushing hopes and dreams is what I am here for. You draft for talent and make moves for talent if it makes sense, scoring points and creating opportunities to do such are that we don't have that on offense at all so you make a move to do that.a high-ceiling super athletic guy who can catch the ball and score at any time. FWIW. If I stayed put (or the top 3 were gone) it would have been between Kristian Fulton & Trevon Diggs as they are BPA at that point and somewhat of a need, but WR is our biggest hole in the roster. In RD2 it would have been a move up for Ayuik, who I like better than Shenault. I generally do well in RD1 of the draft; pissed about Mahomes and Oliver was who I coveted - along with Bosa. I was wrong Josh guy though :)

My goal has been 4 picks in the draft 1 in each round and using history in moving up in from #22 to 16 it only costs a 3rd and nets a 5th in return - Virgil made me overpay you're a 2014 WR class guy aren't you? not in 2018 for my trade Ruggs Jeudy and Lamb will be better than any other WR in this draft, bank it.

I feel like the Colts at 13 & TB at 14 are ideal candidates. ATL at 16 already indicated they will move (most likely back) and they need picks to replenish their team and have a poor cap situation as well. Tying into ATL I am thinking the DEs may be pushed up a bit and teams will jockey for them as well. Some of these teams drafting in the top 15ish in a deep WR class will push that need into RD2 depending on the positions still needed and prioritized on their rosters. Raiders, Philly and Den are prime teams to look in front of. The Raiders have a great shot with their first pick to grab a WR and if they pass will definitely grab one with their 2nd first rounder. Albright thinks he will be gone by 15 and correctly see's him as a Raider - Also thinks the Cards might nab Lamb if he is there He also says Den likes Josh Jones & Reagor, no one in front of Phins want Tua and Chargers want Herbert I really don't want a creative WR, I want a true WR who can get separation, generate YAC and can score as soon as the ball is in his hands = we have no one like that.

@Virgil are we still doing this 10% over thing? I really feel like that is too much for this round and honestly, can only see that in like the top 7ish picks of RD1. In 2017 KC gave us #27 #91 and 2018 #1 to go up to #10 In 2018 we gave Balt #22 & #154 for #16 and a 5th I think we should try to be a bit more realistic in the next round or next mock Let me look at my remaining picks and see what I want to do in regards to trading back in - most likely near the end of the RD

in 2018 to go from #22 to #16 was a 3rd and we got a 5th in return. I would say a move to 14-16 is a simple decision. On the Edmunds pick, Beane said he was trying yo get to #14 to grab him and with sliding talent at a position of need he will make a move, sliding talent at a position that is not a need, he would think twice and might not. If he has to go to 13, the price really changes, but we could still end up with a draft of 1 pick in each of the first 4 rounds if he is able to trade properly. (I did the exercise a few weeks back and don't want to look for it LOL) Edge has to be addressed in FA, that position makes the most sense - Lawson is a FA and needs to be replaced, great place/time/reason to look for the upgrade. WR cost way too much in FA and for the price you pay; TE is a better value if the correct pass catching ones are available. We were in on AB & OBJ last year. OBJ went for a 1st, 3rd & Peppers with a $90 million contract and attitude/diva mentality to go with it. We obviously chose not to pay that price, I'd rather spend the 1st & 3rd and a little more on a Lamb, Jeudy or Ruggs on rookie contract with a 5th yr option.