Reed83HOF

I figured and it makes sense - just wanted a little visibility LMAO. I also couldn't update Promo's title

Sorry @PromoTheRobot http://jerrysullivanshow.com/

Yeah - are we doing 3 rounds? - I lost track as well

Poyer was trash in that game, let up the Watson td and was responsible for the 3rd and forever play in ot

I really didn't think it needed so much explanation. I feel good cause I followed Beane in his own words, but we do need to focus on this being a draft thread.

Did read that devonta could be a cap casualty

So I was impatiently waiting for the season to hurry up and end since last year, so we could get here. This is the first year in a long ass time, I am psyched to see how everything comes together. Obviously FAs will need to want to play here (thankfully we are viewed as a team on the rise and have a great training facility and have been getting good reviews around the league) and we obviously have to be smart and know when to walk away if bidding is getting out of control. There are plenty of plan's A's, B's and C's. Also they have every extension figured in with basic parameters for those players we want to re-sign (Tre, Josh, Edmunds, Milano, Oliver). I would go as far to assume they know what positions are the premium ones the want to pay. The draft is tough to predict not only at this time of the year before we know tags and UFAs. Once that first wave or 2 get done it will be easy to zero in. Trying to figure out what to do @ pick#22 is really tough since there will be many scenarios that play out in the 21 picks in front of us. I just have a hard time seeing us stay there this year, but we need a few more puzzle pieces to be filled in.

Ha! Like Mike Brown will want to pay 3, read it 3, first round picks and then spend more money on Lawrence if they defer until next year? I have a bridge to sell you

"...we on the personnel side will look at it with our own eyes. Sean and his coaches are in the meeting room and might like (a certain player) more because they’ve become buddies and see the game the same way and communicate well. “I stand back and look at it from a distance. Maybe he doesn’t want to teach a new guy, who has just a little more ability, the ins and outs of his system. It’s my job to press him on that if I think there are players who make us better in the draft or free agency.”

We can add more than 1 top contract and there is no need to dump Hughes or Star yet, we don't have to dump anyone and can still sign 2-3 top guys and resign our own, which we don't even have to do until next year. Beane purposely created this window in year 3 of Josh's rookie contract to target very specific upgrades. We have a filled out roster and still $90M to burn with very few but specific holes. Going forward we have the luxury of determining which players after this year, who we want to keep and who we are willing to let walk based on their skill, the positional value etc. It is a masterful job for salary cap and roster management. This year was set up to take a big swing if things progressed as they had hoped.

ATL gave up #26, #58 & a 4th to go to #6; granted that was a million years ago. KC gave up basically #27, a 2nd & a 3rd to go from #27 to #10. Which is a lot. Beane said last year that he would prefer to trade up and use assets for that current year only, which is why I added the 2nd instead of the following year #1. Realistically I think 2 of those 3 will be there at #12,13 & 14. The Raiders can easily prioritize any position at 12 depending on who is there, it is going to be a very fluid situation. The deep draft at the WR position is going to push them down the board and make a trade up more palatable. I was able to find this today from a Joe B interview last April: Beane said on Monday that he tiers the board in the first round by three ways: top players, middle players, and bottom players. If he could assure himself a top player by worsening his position in one of the later rounds, that's a calculated risk I think Beane would be willing to make. The notion of 'BPA' is sometimes used as a crutch by decision makers in and around the draft because it's a very general term that usually wards off counter questions from the media because the 'BPA' strategy has an air of finality to it. However, all things can be true here. Most notably, the needs of a roster and the theory of a team in the importance of position can weigh players on their draft board -- or at least I've come to believe as much with the Bills after listening to Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott over the past two years. Beane is doing his best to play poker, but nothing is more telling than the decisions that they've made in the past. And with their two first-round picks in 2018, we saw the Bills attack a need at a premium position both times, and if I had to guess, I believe that trend will continue along on day one of the 2019 NFL Draft. (Me - We took Oliver - pass rusher/disruptor big position of need) from the 2018 draft: An incredible combination of patience and luck meant Beane had given up fewer assets in that move than anticipated. Retaining the 22nd pick and hoping for an impact player, Edmunds inexplicably slid down the board. When he was still there at pick 14, Beane knew he had to make a move. Edmunds was the right combination of impact and need that spurred the Bills to take action again. “He was sticking out on our board, and it’s a need,” explained Beane. “If a guy is sticking out on our board, and it’s really not a need, you might not do it. But with the hole we had there, and where he was on our board, it was a no-brainer. Even if we could have got to 14, we would have done it.” The thing is Beane will have an idea what to accomplish in the draft and he won't sacrifice that, but We have to score more points and we have to help Josh. Daboll needs WRs who can make reads and adjustments and run good rout trees. Also need good hands to catch Josh's rockets and to be able to adjust for the ball, we need YAC and a guy who can get separation quickly from the DBs so josh can get rid of the ball quickly when pressured. Not too many of those guys. To go from #22 and up we will need to give up more then CLE's #1 in RD3... Apologize for my lengthy posts lately...

I have posted this a ton this offseason, but we have so many expiring contracts over the next 2 years (2021 & 2022) we can remake the entire team and entirely reallocate our salary cap spent vs position groups. We only have like 25 players under contract for 2021 and like 13 in 2022 and only the top 51 players count towards the cap. We have a lot of players to either re-sign or let go. Once Josh gets paid that flexibility will get cut down quickly. For instance (and don't let love of players cloud your judgment through this exercise/example). When you look at cap $$ at a positional value we are average value of salary cap allocation league wide at the safety position and below average on DE. Let's focus on Safety right now and I am using some assumptions to walk through the example: Now you have Poyer coming up and let's say he is looking for $10M a season - that would increse the cap allocation at the Saftey position by $8 million/season - what position do you pull that $8 million from? 2 years after that Hyde is due an extension - do you also give him a $10M contract and tie $20M in 2 safeties? I doubt that since that is too much salary cap $ to devote to 2 positions in which we play Zone coverage and not Man - Zone DBs are much cheaper that Man to Man - these decisions will be made and you will see the cap allocation change accordingly back down to an average cost. They were both cheap when we got them in FA because the positional cost for Zone Safeties in our scheme is relatively cheap.This will most likely be a group that sees turnover first IMO. Now for Edge: We all know we need an Edge in the worst way, we have the cap space now to sign let's say Yannick for a $17M AAV year deal. The rest cost to our cap dollars will be (let's keep this simple) $17M/year. If we don't resign Lawson, cut Trent & with Lorax retiring this will cost us ~ $4M/year more out of our $90 in cap space. Once Tre & Josh are resigned their money will eat a large hole in the remaining cap - add in Dawkins and Milano that number shrinks, but that is OK - these are the positions you want to pay - as they don't hit FA often, are hard to find in the draft and there generally are not enough in the league for everyone. And then what will happen: Now when Poyer and even Hyde are due for extensions, what is more valuable to you? 2 Overpriced zone safeties who originally cost us $7M combined in cap dollars who will command $20M total, eating $13M more than they should based on positional valuation or an Edge who is infinitely more valuable from a positional standpoint. These are the decisions that will be made over the next 3-4 years as the roster churns. You have the ability this year to add those expensive pieces and rebuild your roster around your core guys and those premium positions, you will lose players, but it is much easier to replace a S than an Edge. They are all over the place and cheap as evidenced when we originally signed those 2 guys. We have plenty of room to add premium talent now with Josh's contract and as contracts expire and players a extended, we will be paying the high AAV to those preimum positions and letting the non-premium guys walk - it is how it works 2021 38 players signed as of 2021 2022

Talent other than WR will be pushed up the boards and WR will be pushed down due to the depth. The teams drafting in the top 10 for instance will be drafting Edge, QB, OL and likely a S, pushing those elite WRs down. Yes those teams have WR needs, but they are such bad teams they can afford to wait the 2-3 years for the next group of WRs to develop and push that need into the later rounds due to the depth of that position in the draft. The drop off from the Top Edge, OL, QB is so great, those talents will go much higher and leaving those 3 WRs to the 9-15 range (provided no one jumps in)

We are not cap strapped going forward, we have $186M in space next year and $355M the following year - plenty of cash to resign our guys and at some point, yes we will have to make some decisions on Poyer and players like that- it is inevitable once you pay your QB - we are not there yet. We can easily get those players and we still have a ton of room next year and beyond

What were the records of the teams we beat vs the teams we lost to? How did we fair against the playoff teams? The offense is very easy to defend. Don't cloud your judgment on a cake walk schedule

one of the top WRs

Jesus, this is the same thing as if we kicked an extra FG or scored the TD instead of an FG in the Juaron ball days Our offense is easy to defend, we have no players that require double teams or that will require game planning to draw extra coverage towards our average/below average talent. We need 1 great WR, an upgrade over Kroft/Simth at TE, another RB and we need to replace 2-3 other WRs (Foster, Duke, Easley, Ray Ray). We could use another RT as well. Edit: We have the cap space to add of these positions and make a splash in the draft for one of the best WRs

I'm worried about next year, we couldn't beat the good teams and the offense needs to get dramatically better for us to beat them.

Don't disagree and I would like those numbers in 3 years, when I have a luxury of making that pick in RD1 and need that kind of production now. Plus in his rookie year he had Favre; granted in went to Ponder after that, but he had Kyle Rudolph, Shiancoe, Steve Hutchinson, Bryant McKinnie and a very young and explosive AP. We have Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, Kroft/Knox/JasonP/Sweeney, Felciano, Ford/Nysche/Dawkins/Spain They also had a freaking amazing DL back then.

This is why I put the TG article inn here, the cover 1 article is nonsense

I went to TD because he was the last free thinking GM we had, who wasn't beholden to an HC. Problem with him was he started to outsmart himself and it really didn't seem like he cared about what the HC wanted either. As a GM, I always though Butler was a bit overrated and was propped up by Polian's FO...

what position/who do you want in RD2 and will they be better than any player on the roster right now? The difference with the WRs for instance in the second/third/4th tiers are fairly small and that is what makes this a "deep" class. All we truly need in this class is maybe 4 players max, An elite WR, developmental DB, developmental RB and Developmental WR. The longer developing WR will come in RD3/4 where the "deep" class can properly be utilized. Deep class does not mean a boatload of elite talent in every round - those guys only exist in the top 15ish in any given draft. We have $90 million in cap space to fill our any holes on this roster.

I think we are still in a place where we need more than that out of the WR position and I can find a gimmick type player in RD3 and lower. This is a direct sounding question and it will come of prick-ish; not meant that way. Love and respect your opinion. 1.) In this up coming season, where we need to take a step forward, and not a 2021/2022 projection; how much of an upgrade do you see Shenault being over Mackenzie? a.) based on what we know about Daboll wanting WRs to make reads and decisions b.) getting through a full route tree c.) have the D scheme against him specifically to open up the rest of the offense to our less elite players? d.) Does a Percy Harvin player help us score enough points consistently to win and "score more points" e.) Does he give us enough talent to help Josh not do it all on his own? f.) Will he be enough as a WR to help us really know what we have in Josh come contract time? and I just feel that we can do better at a WR who will help the entire offense and Josh more than this. We need a player who is a threat to take it to the house every time he gets his hands on the ball.