jri111

Thanks to everyone who complemented on the post. As I said, It started out pretty mundane, like every other post, but I just kept adding to it and it became what it became! A few notes and replies: In response to Bradley, here are the negative again that I have found about him: Speed (lacks sideline-to-sideline range) Lateral movements Pass Coverage Skills Inefficient: over pursues Durability (knee) I think you can make the case that the top three on the list are some of the most important traits a cover-2 linebacker should have. Everything I have read about him is that he's an inside the box type of tackler. He doesn't seem to have great range in zone coverage and he's not a sideline-to-sideline 'backer. I think his traits are perfect for the strong side linebacker in the 3-4, but not in the 4-3 where you're asking your linebackers to cover a lot of ground. I like him, I just don't think he'd be a good fit for the Bills and the scheme they run. Just my opinion. As for the starting linebackers being Durant, Crowell and Ellison, I don't see that happening. I really cant see how the Bills come out of this draft without getting either Willis, Poz, Beason, Timmons, or Harris. These are the guys that can come in and start right away. I like guys like Durant and Black, but I think you're taking a big risk asking one of them to be a day one starter. That said, IF it does play out like that Ellison would obviously be the weakside backer with Durant on the strong side and Crowell in the middle (only because Durant would have enough of a hill to climb, and it would be too much to ask him to be the "quarterback" of the defense on opening day). If you're just looking at pure ability or who fits best at what position, then i would switch the two, have durant start in the middle and keep crowell on the strong side, but i just don't see that happening. Who do i think would be available at the 43rd? Well the only ones that would be gone for sure are Willis, Poz, and Timmons. Beason would most likely be gone as well and I wouldn't be surprised to see Harris go early in round 2. That said, I can see Harris still there. If we do pass up on a LB in round 1, then I think it's imperative to try to get either Beason or Harris with our second pick, even if that means moving up. At 76, i can see the above 5 guys gone (Willis, Poz, Timmons, Beason, Harris) and maybe Durant and Bradley as well. Everyone else I think has a good chance of being there. Finally, is willis worth the 12th pick? I'll go one further and say that Poz is also worth the 12th pick (maybe even Beason). The fact is the Bills NEED a starting linebacker out of this draft. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. Runningback is the other major need, and although "elite" backs are far and few between, I think you could make the case of adding many later round guys who would be good fits with A-Train (Pittman, Irons, Booker, Jackson, Henry, etc..). Ther are also a few free agents still out there too if worst come to worst (Brown, Dillon, Davis). For linebacker the draft is pretty much your last and only chance to get a linebacker. So although the "experts" might say that taking a guy like Poz or Beason at 12 would be a reach, when it's your number 1 priority then I argue that it isn't. If they guy you want is there and you have even the slightest indication that he wouldn't be there if you trade down, then I think you're foolish just to ignore your needs because he'd be taken a few spots higher then expected. That said, if they Bills like multiple 'backers equally and think they can get a starter in round two (either at 43 or trading back up) then i'm all for taking the best player available. To answer your question though, no, I don't see taking willis as a reach.

**Disclaimer: I started this analysis a few weeks ago with the idea of writing a detailed analysis of the top four to five linebackers in the upcoming NFL Draft. However, day after day, I added more player and more analysis until it morphed into this final project: A comprehensive 14 page (as a word document at least) analysis of all the linebacker projected to go in the first 4 rounds of the NFL Draft. I apologize for the length, but if you're able to wade through it I think you will find it pretty informative! here's a link to where i originally posted this: http://www.buffalorumblings.com/story/2007/4/19/185328/484 The 2007 NFL Draft is just over a week away and Bills fans everywhere are anxiously awaiting to see who the newest members of the Buffalo Bills will be. The Bills are a young team on the rise, but to stay competitive need to fill many holes on draft day. Perhaps no hole is larger then at linebacker. With the loss of London Fletcher-Baker to free agency and the trade of Takeo Spikes to Philadelphia, Buffalo will probably be looking to add at least two linebackers to their roster during the NFL Draft (most likely in the first 4 rounds). What follows below is a comprehensive analysis all of the linebackers graded in the first 4 rounds in the upcoming draft. Note: Group 1 consists of potential first round linebackers while Group 2 contains linebackers projected to go between rounds 2 and 4. Group 1 (Potential Round 1 Linebackers): Patrick Willis (Mississippi) - MLB (OLB) Paul Posluszny (Penn State) - OLB (MLB) Lawrence Timmons (Florida State) – OLB Jon Beason (Miami) – OLB (MLB) Group 2: (Later Round Linebackers): Brandon Siler (Florida) - MLB (OLB) - (projected: 2) David Harris (Michigan) – MLB - (projected: 2-3) Stewart Bradley (Nebraska) – OLB – (projected: 2-3) Justin Durant (Hampton) – MLB (OLB) - (projected: 2-3) Tim Shaw (Penn State) – OLB – (projected: 3) Buster Davis (Florida State) – MLB – (projected: 3) Quincy Black (New Mexico) – OLB – (projected: 3) Stephen Nicholas (South Florida) – OLB – (projected: 3-4) Rufus Alexander (Oklahoma) – OLB – (projected: 3-4) Michael Okwo (Stanford) – OLB – (projected: 3-4) Zak DeOssie (Brown) – MLB - (projected: 4) Earl Everett (Florida) – OLB (ILB) – (projected: 4) Let’s start by looking at the player’s strengths and weaknesses: Group 1: Patrick Willis - Mississippi – MLB (OLB) (6'1 ", 242) – ESPN Grade: 95 Strengths: Aggressiveness Speed (sideline-to-sideline pursuit linebacker) Tackling technique Very instinctive Areas of Improvement: Lateral movement Pass coverage skills May need to add some weight Plays too high at times Durability – Lots of lingering injuries Intangibles: Leadership Intensity High character Versatile – can play more than one position Best suited for MLB in the cover-2 Gets a deep drop in zone and displays above average range Paul Posluszny: Penn State – OLB (MLB) - (6'1 ", 238) – ESPN Grade: 92 Strengths: Aggressiveness Discipline Very Instinctive (good angles) Areas of Improvement: Pass coverage skills Durability (Knee) Could add weight to his frame Intangibles: Intensity Smart Leadership High character Versatile – can play more than one position Best suited for WLB in cover-2 (size is adequate, but not elite for SLB) Great range in zone coverage Lawrence Timmons: Florida State – OLB - (6'0 ", 234) – EPSN Grade: 93 Strengths: Aggressiveness Athleticism (sideline-to-sideline verses run) Change of direction (fluid hips) Good in coverage Areas of Improvements: Discipline Instincts – does not diagnose plays quick enough/lack ideal awareness in coverage Raw – one year of starting experience Intangibles: Quick and Explosive Good pass rusher Best suited for WLB in cover-2 Very good range in coverage when he diagnoses the play quickly enough Jon Beason: Miami – OLB – (6'0 ", 237) – ESPN Grade: 89 Strengths: Athleticism Foot Quickness Change of Direction Instinctive and aggressive Good open field tackler Areas of Improvement: Shedding ability Lacks elite height Lacks elite range in coverage Durability (shoulder and knee injuries) Stiffness in hips Intangibles: Great special-teamer Leadership High motor Versatile – has played all three positions in college, but because of size probable suited for WLB in cover-2 defense He displays adequate awareness and range in zone coverage Group 2: Brandon Siler: Florida – ILB - (6'1 ", 241) - ESPN Grade: 77 – Projected: 2 Rd. Strengths: Aggressiveness Change of Direction Strength Areas of Improvement: Pass coverage skills Instincts – poor angles Intangibles: Intensity High motor Plays with mean streak Versatile – can fit in a number of defensive system Lacks ideal range in zone coverage David Harris: Michigan – ILB - (6'2 ", 243) - ESPN Grade: 82 – Projected: 2/3 Rd. Strengths: Aggressiveness Athleticism Instincts Good run defender Areas for Improvement: Pass Coverage Skills Shedding Ability Durability Intangibles: High motor Best suited for ILB in 3-4 defense Best suited for MLB in cover-2 Struggles in man coverage, but better in zone Steward Bradley: Nebraska – OLB - (6'3 ", 254) –ESPN Grade: 83 – projected: 2/3 Strengths: Size Strength Toughness Instincts (good angles/always in position) Areas of Improvement: Speed (lacks sideline-to-sideline range) Lateral movements Pass Coverage Skills Inefficient: over pursues Durability (knee) Intangibles: High-motor Best suited For ILB in 3-4 Defense Best suited for SLB in the cover-2 Gets good depth and reads the quarterback's eyes when asked to drop into zone coverage Justin Durant: Hampton – OLB – (6'0 ", 230) – ESPN Grade: 79 – Projected: 2/3 Rd. Strengths: Discipline Instincts Lateral movements Speed Areas of Improvement: Shedding ability Plays too high Size Intensity Developmental – may not be a first year starter Intangibles: Special team potential High motor Leadership Versatile Tim Shaw: Penn State – OLB – (6'1 ", 236) – ESPN Grade: 75 – projected – 3 Rd. Strengths: Aggressiveness Athleticism Instincts – reads and reacts well and good angles Areas of Improvement: Pass coverage ability Shedding ability Size A bit Stiff in hips Intangibles: Versatile – has played OLB, ILB, and DE Good motor Smart Leadership High character He reads quarterbacks' eyes well in zone coverage and gets good depth in his drop Buster Davis: Florida State – ILB - (5'9 ", 239) – ESPN Grade: 72 – Projected: 3 Rd. Strengths: Aggressiveness Foot Quickness Areas for Improvement: Size Strength Playmaking ability in coverage Intangibles: Could be good special teamer Intensity Quicker then fast Best suited for MLB in cover-2 Compared to London Fletcher-Baker A LOT Quincy Black: New Mexico – OLB – (6'1 ", 240) – ESPN Grade: 72 – Projected: 3 Strengths: Athleticism Change of Direction Speed Good Instincts (reads keys/rarely out of position) Great Coverage skills Areas of Improvement: Shedding ability Size – problems anchoring against run Instincts Intangibles: Physically gifted High motor Versatile – Will probable be best suited for WLB, maybe even SS Developmental player Best suited for WLB in cover-2 Adequate depth and shows good range when dropping into zone coverage Stephen Nicholas: South Florida – OLB - (6'1 ", 232) – ESPN Grade: 76 – Project: 3/4 Strengths: Change of Direction Instincts Lateral Movements Areas for Improvement: Shedding Ability Speed Size Intangibles: Three year starter High motor Best suited for WLB in cover-2 (but lacks idea speed so potential is capped) Shows adequate range when asked to drop in zone coverage Plays with mean streak Rufus Alexander: Oklahoma – OLB – (6'0 ", 228) – ESPN Grade: 66 – Projected: 3/4 Strengths: Agility Athleticism Change of Direction Instincts – Ball hawk Good tackler Areas for Improvement: Size Strength Speed Takes plays off sometimes Intangibles: Best suited for WLB in cover-2 Played at high level at big school, but lacks ideal size, speed, and strength for NFL At his best in space Sideline to sideline run defender Michael Okwo: Stanford – OLB - (5'11 ", 232) – ESPN Grade – 67 – Projected -3/4 Strengths: Change of Direction Lateral Movement Speed Instincts – good angles Areas of Improvement: Shedding Ability Size Run support Durability Intangibles: Football intelligence Developmental player Best suited for WLB in cover 2 High motor Plays with mean streak Good special teamer Gets adequate depth when asked to drop into zone coverage Zak DeOssie: Brown – OLB/MLB - (6'4 ", 250) – ESPN Grade – 63 – Projected: 4 Strengths: Good Size Good speed for size Excellent in Coverage Areas for improvement: Durability (Knee, shoulder) Shedding blocks Awareness and Instincts Plays too high Intangibles: High motor Plays with mean streak Stand out special teamer Versatile – can play both inside and outside Workout warrior Best suited for ILB in cover 2 Gets good depth and can cover a lot of ground when asked to drop into zone coverage Earl Everett: Florida – OLB – (6'2 ", 238) – ESPN Grade: 58 – Projected: 4 Strengths: Athleticism Change of direction Size Areas of Improvement: Aggressiveness Toughness Intensity Instincts Intangibles: Great size and speed Best suited for WLB in cover-2 Leadership Now lets look at combine times: [40 Yard Dash: The 40 yard dash is a test of speed and explosion. The player starts from a three-point stance and runs 40 yards as fast as possible. The player is timed in 10, 20 and 40 yard increments, to gauge the player’s explosion of the line and time to top speed. Note: All times are from the NFL combine. Since all players ran on the same turf in the same conditions, its the fairest and most neutral way to rank them (times in parentheses are pro-day times) Group 1: Patrick Willis: 5.51 (4.37) Lawrence Timmons: 4.66 (4.63) Paul Posluszny: 4.70 (4.58) Jon Beason: 4.72 (4.62) Group 2: Quincy Black: 4.42 Tim Shaw: 4.51 (4.46) Justin Durant: 4.51 (none) Zak DeOssie: 4.58 (none) David Harris: 4.59 (none) Brandon Siler: 4.62 (none) Buster Davis: 4.64 (4.74) Stephen Nicholas” 4.64 * pro day number, did not run at combine Michael Okwo: 4.70 Stewart Bradley: 4.72 Rufus Alexander: 4.79 Earl Everett: 4.88 (*pulled hamstring on 1st run) In my opinion these numbers do not tell you much. Linebackers rarely have to run 40-yards in a straight line to make a tackle. So what would be a better indication of linebacker speed? How about 10-yard and 20-yard times? Since the first 10 or 20 yards are what a linebacker is going to traditionally need to cover, these times might be a better indication ‘explosiveness’ and ‘attacking’ ability. First we’ll look at 20 yard times and then the 10 yard times: 20 Yards: Group 1: Patrick Willis: 2.62 (2.52) Jon Beason: 2.64 (none) Lawrence Timmons: 2.68 (2.69) Paul Posluszny: 2.73 (2.61) Group 2: Quincy Black: 2.48 (none) David Harris: 2.59 (none) Justin Durant: 2.60 (none) Tim Shaw: 2.62 (2.54) Brandon Siler: 2.66 (none) Zak DeOssie: 2.66 (none) Stephen Nicholas: 2.68* pro day numbers, did not run at combine Stewart Bradley: 2.71 (none) Michael Okwo: 2.71 (none) Buster Davis: 2.74 (2.72) Rufus Alexander: 2.75 (none) Earl Everett: 2.81 (*Pulled hamstring on 1st run – ran in mid 4.7’s at pro day not at 100%) 10 Yards: Group 1: Lawrence Timmons: 1.50 (1.56) Patrick Willis: 1.53 (1.52) Paul Posluszny: 1.56 (1.53) Jon Beason: 1.60 (none) Group 2: Quincy Black: 1.53 (none) David Harris: 1.53 (none) Justin Durant: 1.55 (none) Brandon Siler: 1.56 (none) Zak DeOssie: 1.56 (none) Stewart Bradley: 1.56 (none) Michael Okwo: 1.58 (none) Stephen Nicholas: 1.58 *pro day number, did not run at combine Tim Shaw: 1.59 (1.49) Earl Everett: 1.62 (*pulled hamstring on first run) Rufus Alexander: 1.64 (none) Buster Davis: 1.65 (1.62) A couple of things stick out to me here: 1. Willis is consistently fast. He doesn’t tail off like most of the other guys do and carries a good frame for how fast he is. 2. Poz, Timmons, and Beason were all much more comparable to Willis in the first 20 yards then in the final 40 time. This tells me that all their playing speeds are relatively similar and good instincts may be the separating factor. 3. Buster Davis seems to be the only player who doesn’t improve much when looking at his 10-yard and 20-yard times. His 4.64 in his combine 40 was not bad, but then he ran a 4.74 at his pro-day and has the slowest 10-yard and 20 yard times. His small frame also scares me off as a cover-2 middle linebacker. He reminds me of London Fletcher, he may be a great Middle linebacker but is not suited for the cover-2 defense. 4. Davis, Alexander, and Everett seem slow no matter which time you look at. 20-yard shuttle: (maybe the most important drill for linebackers) The 20 yard shuttle test lateral speed and coordination. The player starts in a three point stance, straddling a yard line facing the sideline. When the whistle blows, the player runs 5 yards to one side, touching the yard line. He then sprints 10 yards in the other direction and again touches the yard line, at which point he sprints back to the yard line he started from. Group 1: Paul Posluszny: 4.20 Lawrence Timmons: 4.32 (4.34) Jon Beason: 4.33* - taken from personal day (4/5) – did not run at combine or pro day due to a strain pectoral muscle suffered at combine Patrick Willis: 4.46 (4.37) Group 2: Justin Durant: 4.09 Tim Shaw: 4.12 (4.28) Stewart Bradley: 4.17 Zak DeOssie: 4.22 David Harris: 4.29 Rufus Alexander: 4.30 Quincy Black: 4.34 Brandon Siler: 4.39* pro day time – did not run at combine Buster Davis: 4.37 Michael Okwo: 4.43 Stephen Nicholas: 4.45 Earl Everett: None What stands out here: VERY impressive times from Justin Durant, Tim Shaw and Paul Posluszny, also surprisingly on the slower side for Willis. Good times also for DeOssie, and Harris. Perhaps most impressive however is Bradley though. At nearly 6-4, 250 pounds being able to get the 3rd best time among Linebackers is pretty amazing. He seems like a great athlete, I don’t think he would be the best fit the cover-2, however (see his areas for improvement above). I was going to mention Shaw and Durant in the 40-yard section, but I figured I would hold off and see how they compared in the rest of the categories, so far, pretty impressive. Since this drill tests lateral speed and coordination, two very important traits for a successful NFL linebacker to have, it may be the most important drill at the Combine for linebackers. So for guys like Poz, Durant, Shaw and Harris, good times could mean big things for them come draft day. Side note on Beason: Since he ran on his personal day at his former high school weighing 8 pounds lighter than his ideal weight, his numbers are hard analyze. Not having the added weight may have allowed him to move quicker and record better times. That said, his times are still impressive though. *Also it’s important to note that Black had the best 60 yard shuttle time (11.23). Other notables: Poz had the third best time amongst linebackers (11.42), Durant fourth (11.44), Deossie fifth (11.50), Harris sixth (11.67), and Timmons ninth (11.78). 3 Cone Drill Tests speed, agility and cutting ability. Three cones are set up in a triangle or L shape, with each cone 5 yards apart. The player starts in a 3-point stance at the first cone. The whistle blows and the player sprints 5 yards ahead to the first cone, reaches down and touches a white line and then sprints back to the starting cone. At the starting cone, he reaches down and touches a white line, then heads back to the second cone. This time, he runs around the outside of the second cone, and cuts right to the third cone. He runs a circle around the third cone from the inside to the outside, then runs around the second cone before returning to the first cone. Group 1: Jon Beason: 6.89** taken from personal day (4/5) – did not run at combine or pro day due to a strain pectoral muscle suffered at combine Lawrence Timmons: 6.92 Paul Posluszny: 6.94 Patrick Willis: 7.23 (7.1) Group 2: Justin Durant: 6.77 Quincy Black: 6.86 Zak DeOssie: 6.89 Tim Shaw: 7.01 (6.9) Rufus Alexander: 7.06 Michael Okwo: 7.12 David Harris: 7.25 Buster Davis: 7.28 Stewart Bradley: 7.29 Stephen Nicholas: 7.29 Brandon Siler: 7.34 (7.7) Earl Everett: 7.39 * Pro day after pulling hamstring at combine, still not 100% What sticks out here: •Durant AGAIN with an impressive and fast 6.77 for a linebacker, I’m starting to see a trend here (highest among all linebackers, actually). •Timmons and Poz were nearly identical also putting up good numbers (5 and 6 among linebackers overall) •Here we find Willis in the middle of the pack, again somewhat surprising for his athleticism. Lets end with two other drills that may not be as important for linebackers as some of the others: The broad and vertical jumps: Broad Jump The broad jump is also done from a standing position, but this drill measures how far a player can jump. This drill is most important to positions that use lower body strength to gain an advantage (i.e. offensive and defensive linemen and running backs). The length of the jump is measured from the starting point to the back of the heel closest to the starting point upon landing. Group 1: Lawrence Timmons: 10’3” Patrick Willis: 9’11” Paul Posluszny: 9’8’’ Jon Beason: 9’3’’ (10’) Group 2: Quincy Black 10’4’” Zak DeOssie: 10’2” Justin Durant: 10’1” Michael Okwo: 10’1” Rufus Alexander: 9’9” Tim Shaw: 9’8’’ (10’6”) Earl Everett: 9’55” Stewart Bradley: 9’4” Stephen Nicholas: 9’2” Brandon Siler: 9’1” (9’8”) David Harris: 8’11” (9’2”) Buster Davis: 8’8’’ Vertical Jump Most important to wide receivers and defensive backs. To measure vertical jump, a player stands flat-footed in front of pole with a multitude of plastic flags sticking out. The bottom of the pole is adjusted to the height of the player’s fingertips when raised straight above his head. The player then jumps from a standing position, and tries to swat as many of the plastic flags as he can. The flags, staged every half inch on the pole, rotate and give the event judge a reading of the height the player jumped. Group 1: Patrick Willis: 39 Paul Posluszny: 37 Lawrence Timmons: 35 Jon Beason: 32.5 Group 2: Quincy Black 41.5 Tim Shaw: 36.5 Justin Durant: 36 Stewart Bradley: 35.5 Michael Okwo: 35.5 Rufus Alexander: 35 Zak DeOssie: 34.5 Stephen Nicholas: 33.5 David Harris: 33 Earl Everett: 32 Buster Davis: 31 Brandon Siler: 30.5 FINAL ANALYSIS: When you combine scouting reports with NFL Combine stats many trends are noticeable: 1. This draft seems to significantly favor OLBs to MLBs. According to ESPN rankings there are only 4 MLBs with overall grades over 70, as opposed to 8 OLBs over the grade of 70 (This could indicate that Buffalo might want to grab their MLB early (Willis) and choose from one of the many similarly rated OLBs later). 2. Among all Linebackers, but more specifically OLBs, size seems to be a concern for almost everyone. Only a few OLBs possess elite size and many of the negatives are a direct result from this. 3. In direct correlation to the size concerns, most OLBs project better on the weak side where speed is more important then the strong side where size is preferred. As a result SLB is very poorly represented in this draft. Some players who possess good versatility (Poz, Shaw, Black) may be able to play on the strong side effectively in the NFL. 4. Among the four players in Group 1, I don’t think the Bills can go wrong with any of them. I think Willis is clearly the best bet but both Poz and Beason would fit well in our defense as well. Out of the four, Timmons concerns me the most because he is raw and lacks ideal speed and coverage ability. He is also the only one of the four to not possess good “instincts,” a trait which is important for “attacking” linebackers in the cover-2. 5. Beason really impresses me, but not with the 12th pick. Prior to a few weeks ago he was projected to go high in the second round. Now he’s projected as a mid-late 1st rounder. If he does slip into the beginning of the second round, it may be wise for Buffalo to try to make a move to get him, regardless of what they do with the 12th pick. If Buffalo were really lucky he would still be available with the 43rd pick. 6. Among the 4 MLBs, aside from Willis who is by far-and-away the best of the group, both Harris and DeOssie impress me the most. Harris would be a good pick up in round 2 and a GREAT pick up in round 3 if he lasts that far. DeOssie would have good value in round 4. He has great size (nearly 6-5, 250 pounds) and is considered “excellent” in coverage. He would be a great fit if the Bills decided to go with one of the OLBs (Poz/Beason) earlier in the draft. Among the rest of the OLBs Durant, Shaw, and Black impress me the most (in that order). They all possess good speed and would be great pick ups in the third round. None of the three would have to start right away as they could provide depth/competition on the weak side. Those who I don’t think would be good fits in the cover-2 are Bradley, Davis and Siler. Davis is an undersized middle linebacker (alla Fletcher), while Bradley, although possessing good size, may be too big to be an effective outside backer in the cover-2. Siler is one of the top rated middle linebackers in the draft and is projected to go in round 2, but his two negatives scare me off (pass coverage ability and instincts) because they are two very important traits for a cover-2 MLB to possess. Prediction: 1. Regardless of if the Bills add a MLB (Willis) or an OLB (Poz/Beason) in round 1, I look for them to address OLB with one of the next three picks. Good possibilities would be; Beason (if he somehow fell to the second), Durant, Shaw, or Black. If they went OLB in round one then Harris and DeOssie are also good possibilities. 2. If the Bills decide to skip on LB in round 1 (Which I think is unlikely) I think the best option would be to take a guy like Harris in round two and either Durant, Shaw, or Black with one of the third rounders. 3. In the end, I definitely see Buffalo grabbing two linebackers in the first 4 rounds. Grabbing a guy that can play either MLB or SLB to supplement Crowell is priority one and then adding another guy to back-up/compete with Ellison on the weak side as priority two (among linebackers).

This part actually concerns me the most, becuase it indicates potential problems with contract talks between the Bills and Turner. A Trade and compensation can be worked out anytime and the most likely senario is on draft day. However, if there is no long term contract in place a draft day trade is dead in the water.

I don't necessarily think so. I just think he's not backing himself into a corner by putting a cap on it. If he comes out and says that absolutely no way they will give up a first rounder, then A.J. has less incentive to try to make a deal happen with Marv and the two sides come to a stand still. If Marv doesn't say it, then on draft day AJ will at least think Marv's willing to consider giving up a 1st (even if he's not) and will be more inclined to negotiate with Buffalo (as opposed to other teams). Obviously, it comes to a point (ideally during the draft) where marv says, no way we give up our first, here's our offer, take it or leave it. But right now, there's no reason to back yourself into a corner.

Levy: Trade For Turner Would Be A Surprise by Chris Brown, Lead Journalist Last Updated: 4/18/2007 1:05 PM ET http://www.buffalobills.com/news/news.jsp?NEWS_ID=4710 The Bills have made little secret about their interest in San Diego restricted free agent running back Michael Turner, but seeing a trade consummated by the two clubs prior to the draft appears unlikely according to Buffalo GM Marv Levy. "There's nothing new to report right now," said Levy Wednesday. "There are so many complexities to the deal that if it's done I've got to tell you it'd be a surprise." Levy is no doubt referring to the fact that not only would the Bills and Chargers have to agree on compensation to orchestrate the trade of Turner, but Buffalo would also presumably need to have a long term contract agreement in place with Turner's agent for a trade to be completed. When asked if the Bills would be willing to surrender their first round pick in this year's draft for Turner, Levy chose not to comment. "We wouldn't disclose what our strategy would be or what would happen with it," said Levy. "It's more complex than what we would offer right now. There are so many factors in it that I'd prefer not to talk about all of them. Let me put it that way."

I don't think the staff would have a problem with Crowell at SLB and if they drafted Willis that would be an indication that they didn't so we really wouldn't have another hole to fill. You're right about the starter thing, but the way I look at it (and i'm not speaking for anybody else) and what I think I have inferred from others' posts is that they are aware we only need one starting LB but want someone that can compete with Ellison for the starting weak side job. That's why I see us taking two linebacker in the first 4 picks. My guess is the first on either Willis or Poz and then one of the thirds on a guy like Rufus Alexander, Tim Shaw, Quincy Black, ect...

I agree that Poz wouldn't be ideal for the MLB in the cover-2. I don't question his LB speed (i.e. lateral or attacking ability), but do worry about him covering the "deep middle 1/3" as a MLB in the cover-2. That said, if we pick up Poz he most likley wouldn't play middle anyways, he'd probably be on the strong side which he is much more suited for. He's best suited for the weakside but since Ellison is only suited for that position, unless we pick up two starting caliber LB's (one that can play middle/strong side and Poz) then i don't see him playing there. He'd be a good strong side LB though, so your concerns about him having to cover the deep 1/3 in the middle are legitimate, but becuase he probably wouldn't play there, it become moot. * here's s shot out of left field to consider: say we get Poz. Perhaps down the road (mid summer?) maybe Briggs entrenches' his heals in and his asking price comes down and the Bills make a play for him. long shot, but it would allow Poz to play weakside, crowell to hold down the middle, while Briggs takes over the strong side.

Hey Kelly, I think that's exactly right. Here's a write up I just did for another site check it out, it says nearly the same things: http://www.buffalorumblings.com/story/2007/4/16/23169/5297 I went to Penn State, graduated last spring and have been to every PSU home game of Poz's career. I was also fortunate enough to sit in the front row at the 2005 Orange Bowl! Anyways I've been following Poz pretty closely and think he will be a great addittion to the Bills at 12. And just to prove i'm not bias, I actaully really like both Poz and Willis. I think Willis' skills fit better at the MLB in a cover-2 defense while Poz's skills are best suited for the WLB. That said, and since it would appear that Poz would most liklely play SLB for us (with crowell in the middle and ellison on the weak side), Willis may just be the better fit for us right now merely because of personnell. I'd be happy with either one of them though! I really can't see the Bills not taking one of the two at 12 unless AP was there.

Artcile in the Tennesseean today: http://www.tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ar.../704170375/1027 "As of right now, it looks like Michael is going to be in San Diego,'' Cook said. "Things could change, and it could happen on draft day, too.'' "I don't think that is going to happen either,'' Cook said of Buffalo. "I don't know what is going to happen. Nothing is happening right now, though.''

I don't know if this was posted a while back when the article was written back in February, but since both players are apparently on our radar, I thought it would be good to post again. Also for those who haven't seen it yet: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ap-n...p&type=lgns Although I think i'm in the minority I'd be happy with either one of them. I do rank Willis ahead of Poz, but not by much. In my opinion it goes: Peterson, Willis, Poz (with Okoye in there somewhere... i can't decide becuase I LOVE him, but since we have two glaring nees at LB and RB now, taking him is a little more of a luxury right now. Not completely, because we can def. use an upgrade at DT even though we brought in Walker and still have an unknown in McCargo, but it's def a need behind LB and RB) In the end I'd be happy with any of the four. If I had to put money on it though I think Peterson, Okoye and Willis will be gone and Poz will be the pick.

I agree completely assuming Peterson, Willis and Okoye are gone, Poz would be a great pick. Trading this year's second and a conditioanl pick next year for Turner would soldify RB and then we have two more thirds to work with. Preferrably I would take another LB (i.e. Alexander or Shaw) and CB (I would love it if Hughes fell to early round 3).

I come to the conclusion that you know absolutely NOTHING about football

What do you think the trips to Buffalo and Tennessee were about? He may have "potential deals" already in place with either teams, or both. All that would remain is the compensation to SD. Then again they couldn't, but the point is, you can work out the details of a potential contract with a player pre-draft and then enter the draft knowing that a deal is more or less in place and all that would remain is making the trade with SD work out. This could be true for any team, not just Buffalo. In the end a draft day trade makes the most sense. If a team like Buffalo or Tennesse pull the trigger now, they'll give up much more then they have to. If SD waits until after the draft then they might as well not trade him at all because they wouldn't be able to get "picks" to help them THIS year. If a trade happens I expect it to happen between the 12th (Buffalo's first) and the 50th (Tennessee's second) picks. Anything after and you're getting too far into "post draft" mode and it's worth more just to keep Turner. If I had to predict I would say that buffalo is waiting to see what transpires in the first 12 picks before they play the Turner card. If Peterson some how falls to them, then overpaying for Turner NOW would not make sense. If Peterson is gone and they get the LB they want (Willis, Poz, Timmons?) in round 1 then they'll probably be more inclined to press harder for Turner, maybe offering Baltimore's third this year along with the second to get the deal done. I hope it gets done less then that, for example, instead of Baltimore's third from this year, perhaps a conditional pick next year that could range between rounds 2-4 depending on performance. But the difference in the two are a matter of a few degrees and the winner will be determined by who has more "draft day nerves" to hold out longer for what they want. The point is though, a draft day trade makes the most sense. It's where the market will be the most lively and it's the perfect medium between SD having the upper hand (pre-draft) and Buffalo having it (post-draft). Well maybe not buffalo having the upperhand as much as SD losing thier leverage to get something in return for Turner before he leaves next year for nothing.

Here is the link and the "story": http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/features/rumors Michael Turner Chargers Titans Bills? Jets? Cowboys? Turner staying put <Apr. 14> The trade possibilities involving Turner may have played themselves out, ESPN.com's John Clayton reports. The restricted free-agent met with the Bills and Titans, two teams definitely interested in him for this year. The problem is the price tag. The Chargers might be willing to take less than the first and the third, but they definitely want a first-round pick, either this year or next year. The Bills and Titans seemed to be reluctant meet that asking price. The option remains open for another week, but don?t hold your breath. Turner is too valuable to give up for less than a first-rounder. He will leave the team after 2007 in free agency, but the Chargers should get at least a fourh-round compensatory pick in return. _________ What's funny is John Clayton has practically been the ONLY one reporting right from the beginning that AJ and the Chargers were unwilling to budge for less then a first rounder. At first I dismissed this claim. I though there was NO WAY AJ could expect to get that much in return for back-up running back and that he was merely playing hard-ball (which he still may just be doing). But with this report and earilier this week Chris Mortenson saying on his weekly chat that the Bills have already offered a 2nd and SD refused, maybe neddle-d*ck has been right all along?! Maybe AJ really asking for "so much" in return that it wouldn't be feasible for any team to get him. I personally find this amazing. He would rather give up a second round pick (and most likely even a second and ANOTHER pick too) and have a "great" back-up running back this year then lose Turner for nothing after next year?! It doesn't make sense to me, but my confidence in logic is starting to waver. In the end I still think a draft day trade gets done with either the Titans or the Bills. And in the end I aslo expect it to be a muli-pick deal including some combination of this year's second and either a later round pick in this year's draft (Baltimore's third?) or a conditional pick next year. To me that makes sense for both teams and I think AJ will have ot come down off his stoop eventually and realize the logic and smarts in it. If not, then he'll have Turner for another year, becuase neither the Bills nor the Titans are going to offer their first picks as compensation for Turner.

Yes i think Poz would be a good pick at 12 if AP and Willis are gone, but it goes beyond that. My personal opinions aside, I think that it would be a pretty safe bet that Marv takes Poz at 12 if both AP and Willis are gone. For the reasons I stated above they are not going to try to trade down and "hope that he will still be there." Secondly, All i'm saying is that people better start getting it in their heads that he's a real possibility at 12 (and IMO a good one). If not they're setting themselves up for dissappointment. Just to back up what i'm saying this is From ESPN Insider's "rumor central" from 4/14: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/features/rumors Buffalo No. 12 pick ? Bills eyeing Posluszny <Apr. 14> One interesting name to watch for the Bills with the 12th pick is Penn State linebacker Paul Posluszny, ESPN.com's John Clayton reports. The Bills could easily fill a need and take Marshawn Lynch to replace Willis McGahee, but linebacker is also a critical need, following the Takeo Spikes trade.