I look at it like this:
If one of the 15 - 20 or so "first round talents" get within striking distance of a move up, Beane seems to do that. Since we don't have a third and are picking lower in the round, it seems like the value for a sizeable move won't be there this year. I think Beane values the draft picks even more now that the salary cap accounts for Josh, as opposed to prior when there was more money available for free agents; he has to get more value from the draft class. I think any one of the first three picks could be in play for a trade down, but I think picks 3-7 have a higher than normal chance of moving up. This year it will be expensive to move up in the mid rounds, but I think Beane will find some value in players to do it and we have the ammo.