Dibs

No, one can't carry the rollover past the one season. As far as I could figure it...... At the moment we have spent 109m(top 51 player caps).....we will get back 4.5m for Fitz contract in a few months. We also have a dead cap number of 6m......and 4m for rookie contracts(I've adjusted this down from 5.5m as several of the rookie contracts will fall outside the top 51 cap hits)............bringing the total spend to.....114.5m. The base cap figure is 123m. The Bills' rollover amount is 10m. This means that we are 8.5m under the cap.......and 18.5m under the adjusted rollover cap. Ignoring any adjustment for Byrd(leaving his cap hit at 6.9m).....if we don't spend any more money on FAs, we will take a 8.5m rollover into the 2014 season. (More detail on 2014 cap situation here: http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/user/7345-dibs/)

Except for QB.....

I am the first to admit my lack of expertise in this area......but 2 possibly stupid questions immediately spring to mind..... Wouldn't having 5 DBs starting leave us even thinner in the secondary? Wouldn't it also leave us even weaker against the run?

Actually.....no it couldn't. It might happen....anything is possible.....but the odds that all of the NFL scouts miss that special potential in a QB and he falls to #41(& we select him) are extremely small(less than 1%).

Though that may be true(most likely), it does not detract from the importance of conducting analytical studies. Having a majority(or even a vast majority) believing in a particular opinion/theory does not add any weight to the validity of the opinion/theory......and in some cases it may be somewhat(or even entirely) incorrect. Having an analytical study which proves the "common wisdom", is not a waste of time. It not only reaffirms what is "known", but enables one to be able to logically counter the minority who might voice a contrary opinion.

I'm figuring that he was tweeting in response to all of the Buffalo fans who showed themselves as being mad at him because he had said that he didn't miss Buffalo. I deduce this from him saying "All the Buffalo fans are mad because I said that I don't miss buffalo.".

That's irrelevant to his point.......the point being that VABills was directly asked what he was like at that age in relation to being immature.

Taking the last two seasons.....the only 2 seasons where both players were the designated starter for their team.... Davis averages 4.37 rec/game, 59 yds/game, .16 td/game Chandler averages 2.79 rec/game, 33.1 yds/game, .41 td/game The major issues that I can see based upon the stats is that Davis only played 19 of 32 while Chandler played 29......and Chandler caught a much higher rate of TDs. In terms of catches and yards, Davis lead in those areas by a wide margin.

Though his contract escalates after 2 years, it can hardly be considered a two year deal. If he is cut after this season he will count as 11.4m dead cap in 2014.

As I'm not a twitter...er, am I reading this correctly? Was all the brouhaha caused by this?.... "All the Buffalo fans are mad because I said that I don't miss buffalo. Well, I told the truth. I DON'T! Best of luck though" If so, I see nothing wrong with that comment at all.

Why?

Not for the QB position.

All things being equal.....over the past 13 seasons(2000-2012).... The odds.... That an individual team makes at least one Super Bowl = 56.8% (1 in 1.76) That an individual team misses the playoffs every year = 0.2% (1 in 450) This would have to be one of the most depressing stats I have every figured.

As it was on Ralph's dime, they all had salad......except for Davis who had lobster.

For those interested..... Anderson only had a 3.5m cap hit last season.......and has a 4.5m cap hit this season.

Yes, Darius was under the new rookie scale......but that means he earns 5.1m/year rather than 12.7m/year as the #3 DT pick McCoy from the previous year got. It's not so much the guaranteed money, rather the cap hit he would garner in 2014 that would really hurt us. The guaranteed money is only really relevant if you are wanting to cut a player early in his contract. A low guaranteed amount makes that easier.....but if we signed Levitre, I'm doubting that we would be wanting to cut him in the first 3 years of the contract. The Titans structured their deal with Levitre to have a 4.6m cap hit in 2013....and an 8.6m hit in 2014-2017. Even if we had front loaded his cap hit for this season(2013), we would have minimally had to have a 4-5m hit in 2014. As I showed above, at this point we only have 6m free under a 125m 2014 cap. I totally agree with the concern of how to fill the hole created. We might get lucky.....and we have had recent success finding decent OLmen.....but I don't believe as others here do in that it is easy to find a replacement & that OGs are a dime a dozen. Like I said.....I totally understand how they could let Levitre walk......but as for his backup walking as well..... Unless they feel that they have Levitre's replacement already on the roster(or lined up Brandon Moore?).....this is a head scratcher for me. Being fair.....there were a lot of teams(all of them?) that seem to have been caught out by the totally unexpected reduction in the salary cap a few years back & then the minimal increases for the last few years. In my mind, it was the inability to assess the talent that seems to have led to the shaky ground we are on at the moment.

You've put me in a bit of a quandary there Bill. The general consensus(on TSW) is that Wood is the better OLman.....but is more injury prone. You however are the guy I place the most stock in their opinion on OLmen.....yet believe that Levitre is the better player. (I personally have no ability in being able to judge OLmen.) I think irrelevant to whom is the better player, the decision to not re-sign Levitre was a wise move purely based upon our cap situation. Signing him to 8m/year would have meant that we would likely hit 2014 being already over the cap. That being said, I personally think that a well run franchise wouldn't have put us in this position in the first place. I am of the opinion(based upon quotes by Bills FO & their 2011/2012 actions) that prior to the 2012 season, the powers that be at OBD felt that we were very close to making a run. They therefore spent up big to put together the final pieces of the puzzle(as they saw it). As we know, those assumptions by GM/HC were totally off the mark. Fitzpatrick was not the QB they hoped for......Wanny was a disaster.....and even if their big defensive signings were healthy, it was clear that a large portion of the roster was sub-par. Not re-signing Levitre is the cost of those mistakes IMO.......and in terms of "well run franchise".....I personally think Nix should have been fired for being so far off the mark in regards to where he thought we were(heading into 2012). An interesting side note......this season we will be spending over 32m of the 123m cap(26%) on our DL......and that is after the retirement of Kelsay.

I'm assuming that you have me confused with somebody else. Though I will gladly argue with people about differing views, I try my best(and usually succeed) on being polite and try to stay focused on the facts/issues. I tend to think I am one of the more considerate posters here when it comes to other peoples opinions. I am happy to rip apart the logic of someone's opinion......but I very, very rarely rip apart a poster for having their opinions......and on the odd occasion where I let myself down and am rude to somebody, I usually follow up with an apology for my actions. I recently offered advice to a new poster in this thread.... http://forums.twobil...r-qb-this-year/ ......in regards to their lack of spacing. If you read what I wrote you will see that I was being very polite and was trying to help the OP. Others followed my post with similar, yet ruder and blunter thoughts. I never did respond to his actual thoughts though. Again.....I'm thinking that you must have me confused with somebody else......either that or you don't like what I generally post and imagine that I am attacking people when in fact am simply refuting their arguments.

I'm glad you posted that last line as I was not going to read your post before seeing it. I'm not very knowledgeable in this area and typically find long explanations to be well above my ability to follow them. Not so with your post. Thanks for taking the time to explain things.

I really didn't expect an aggressive attack over this......nor see the need for one. You act as if I have personally attacked something that you have written....when in fact I don't disagree at all that the handling of players/salaries by the Bills FO has been very poor. Apart from a couple of reasonable assumptions(Byrd 2014 cap hit & the 2014 cap increase)......and my second last paragraph.....I made no reference nor inference to the abilities(or lack there of) of the Bills' FO in regards to their culpability in the current cap situation. My interest was to show people exactly where we stood in terms of the cap for the next 2 years......and they could freely draw their own conclusions as to how we can circumvent the problem as well as to how much blame should be placed upon the FO. Suspect information? You really have a nasty bee in your bonnet don't you? Information mainly gathered from: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap-hit/ http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap-hit/2014/ In regards to the Titans..... They have 6.8m left to spend......of which they need to sign their rookies. Their 2014 cap is currently sitting at 119.8m.....plus 4m for their 2013 rookies....plus 4m for their 2014 rookies = 127.8m If the cap only rises by the recently standard 2%, the Titans are already looking to be over the cap in 2014. They will also have 5 starters hit FA in 2014(OT Stewart, S Pollard, WR Britt, C Velasco, CB Verner).....plus another 14 players including 4 backup OLmen. If I were a Titans fan, I would be praying that they get a lot of good players in the next two drafts.

I already adjusted the 2014 cap to reflect the 7m Fitz hit.

Agreed.....though it is difficult to do if the following year is going to be tight regarding the cap as it means there won't be any rollover for the following year. The signing of Mario would have been a prime candidate for this sort of arrangement. Using this concept though.....and the thoughts of H2O above.....I could see us using this years rollover money to extend several players mid-season(2013) who are going to be FAs in 2014. This would provide the best use of the monies available as we could extend Wood, Carrington & whomever else shows themselves to be worth keeping.....front load their contracts to have a lesser hit in 2014......and still be left with the 6m of cap space(or more) projected for 2014.

Luckily we have Spiller under contract for the next 3 seasons. We likely won't have to redo his contract till mid-season 2015. It is also somewhat fortunate that his current contract pays him as the 14th highest RB in the league(ave/year). I think we are fine with him under contract through 2014. Totally agree with Mario.....something similar to the botched Broncos salary cut with Dumervil.....but hopefully without the botching.

I actually said 2 players for a total of 6m/year.....which I thought quite a reasonable guestimate for reasonable FA signings. I personally think we might spend up to 4m on multi-year contracts.....but anything more would be a huge stretch in 2014. Our 10 top cap hits for 2014(not including the 2013+2014 rookies of course) are..... Mario: 18.4m S Johnson: 8.5m Dareus: 6.49m Anderson: 6m (2m saving if cut....4m dead) K Williams: 5.8m Spiller: 4.16m McKelvin: 4.15m(1.15m saving if cut....3m dead) B. Smith: 4m(3.5m saving if cut....0.5m dead) F Jackson: 3.7m(2.7m saving if cut....1m dead) E Pears: 3.45m(2.9m saving if cut....0.55m dead) Cutting Smith, Jackson & Pears would save 9.1m.....though that would bring it to 22 players of our top 51 that would be FAs next year. But that only applies if we are going to be further spending over another 11.5m this off-season(under this cap). If we spend 11.5m or less then it makes absolutely no difference. I'm not saying you are wrong......just that I find it difficult to see how we could spend over 11.5m more now that most of the higher priced FAs are gone. ......and if we do spend over 11.5m more this season, our cap space for 2014 drops to 6m(with no rollover).....and that is assuming the 11.5m+ is only on 1 year contracts. 6m to pay for Wood & 18 other leaving FAs in 2014. Something has got to give .

Due to the rollover rule, the Fitz situation doesn't effect the amount of money that we would have to spend in 2014 at all. With a Fitz 3m hit now & 7m hit in 2014 we have.... 2013: 8.5m cap room.......18.5m with rollover. 2014: 6m cap room.......14.5m with rollover. With a Fitz 10m hit now & zero hit in 2014 we would have had..... 2013: 1.5m cap room......11.5m with rollover. 2014: 13m cap room.......14.5m with rollover.