Dibs

Henchmen never kill the boss!

Yes, it will be 7m dead cap in 2014.....but that is a lot less than keeping him.....and absorbing the hit this year over having it there next year enables us to have more flexibility over the two years, and allows a greater ability to reduce the 2014 cap hit of future FAs. Keeping Fitz: 2013: 10.45m, 2014: 10.55m, cutting him after that would still leave a 4m dead cap hit......TOTAL HIT = 25m Cutting Fitz: 10m dead cap.....plus....depending on Kolb's contract(likely between 6.5m & 13m over 2 yrs depending if he starts).....MAX TOTAL = 23m....likely 16.5m The cap situation is a little more complex.... For the sake of the study, I am going to allocate a 3.5m 2013 & 2014 cap hit for Kolb. We theoretically have 15m to spend(Rookies & 3m Fitz hit already calculated) in 2013.......5m left under the cap plus 10m rollover. In 2014(according to my calculations)......we will have around 2.5m of cap space....plus 5m rollover from 2013 = 7.5m Total remaining cap(2013/14) = 17.5m(reduced by 5m as the same money cannot be spent twice). If we took the entire 10m hit for Fitz in 2013.....we would see.... 8m left in 2013(all rollover) Nothing left in rollover for 2014....plus 9.5m of cap space left = 9.5m Total remaining cap(2013/14) = 17.5m At this point, your concerns seem very valid......as the cap space in 2014(red) is reduced by spreading the Fitz hit. The overall cap money left(purple) however is the same in both cases......but it allows us to have more ability to re-sign(mid 2013 season) the players due to be FAs in 2014(Wood, Byrd, Carrington, Chandler).....front load their contracts.....and even make more room for the 2014 cap. Essentially, spreading the Fitz dead money over 2 years provides a greater flexibility for future cap management.

Agreed. I thought it would have been pretty cool(appropriately horrific) if she couldn't get either hand free before being chomped on......but I guess they wanted to have the "goodbye" scene.

Good post....but this line is a little irrelevant. Buddy has only had the say over 3 drafts......with 3 1st round picks. One cannot define a trend from such a small sample. Furthermore, his three picks could easily have been classed as "best player available" picks.....further removing the concept of any pattern. That said, I agree with you in that I think it very doubtful the Bills will go OT in the 1st.

The cap hit would have been a great deal more had they not released Fitz. They have actually given their rookie coach pretty much the best cap situation that they could have......and have also been mindful of the 2014 cap(which is predicted to be of minimal increase) so that they don't have to eject more players next year I can go through the numbers on this if you need to see the proof of the statement.

Likely not. After episode 1, we still have not seen the characters/story for Arya Stark, Jamie Lannister & Brienne, Theon Greyjoy, Lord Varys, or Bran Stark.....I think that's all of them at this point. The books get more and more complex in regards to characters as the series progresses........to the point where George R R Martin decided to write about half the characters in book 4 & the other half in book 5......with both books following the same time period. He did this to fully follow the characters and do justice to their individual stories.....and be able to stop with each at a satisfying point rather than have a massive "to be continued" at the end of book 5. Book 6 saw the characters again all following the same time period......and was a monster of a book. For those that don't know......book 3(the book that we are up to in the TV series) was very large and was released as two separate books(Book 3 part 1 & 2). Season 3 will roughly cover book 3 part 1......while season 4 will roughly cover book 3 part 2.

That's a good point IMO.

I apologize if I caused offense. It just that for me, a journeyman player is one that bounces round the league because they are not quite good enough to maintain their roster spot. When people call Warner a journeyman......in the same manner that one would call Fitzpatrick, Dilfer or Edwards a journeyman.....I feel that it is not a legitimate term to describe him without some sort of qualification attached. No. I was more interested in the reaction of people who actually remember the time well and/or saw him play, as the stats might not reflect his ability at the time, which was not uncommon for the era. This response from Sisyphean Bills pretty much states that his stats were certainly not reflective of his play at TB.

I totally agree.

When the monkey is naughty......well you can guess how Beiber disciplines it.

So the argument is that when a star player gets injured & takes several years to return to their full abilities.....moving teams in that period.....that he becomes a journeyman? I guess so.....though your quotes stated "one-time journeyman" "He was a journeyman then". Both statements imply that he was not a career journeyman. To describe Warner as a journeyman is definitely misleading. It implies that he was a journeyman similar to so many others in the league....that his talents were mediocre....good enough to get a job, but not good enough to remain on a team for an extended time. That he was a career journeyman. Probably better to describe him as a part time journeyman IMO.....but what do I care.....he was never a Bill.

Well yeah.....but Warner doesn't fit into the football definition. He didn't bounce around from team to team due to his lower ability(which is pretty much how I see the football definition as being). He only fits as a journeyman if you take the strict definition of the word......unless you have a different football definition that you use where he fits right in?

What date is it today?

Agreed....tiz a silly argument.....but....while we're doing it.... The definitions of journeyman that apply are: 1. a person who has served an apprenticeship at a trade or handicraft and is certified to work at it assisting or under another person. 2. any experienced, competent but routine worker or performer. Warner was neither of these......and the only argument that holds is that he served his apprenticeship outside of the NFL prior to working in the NFL.

I had already conceded that "technically" he could be called a journeyman......but his situation is rather unique. How many journeymen come into the league 4 years after college(having not been drafted) and get onto an NFL roster? My guess would be very, very, very few. How many journeymen have great success for their initial team(which in a way is contrary to the definition of journeyman)? My guess would be very, very, very few. For the sake of the NFL definition of journeyman, Warner did not follow the typical journeyman path. But if you feel the need to place him in the same category of journeyman as a Fitzpatrick, Dilfer or Edwards......be my guest.

To be fair to the collective minds of the NFL scouting departments, both Smith & Rodgers were recognized as having potential and were both selected inside the 1st round. The scouts were obviously not able to predict the exact end result......but were definitely on the money in recognizing that both players had potential. Kaepernick was selected at #36......only 4 places outside the 1st round. Wilson is unusually short for an NFL QB and that negative factor was obviously overplayed by the scouts. Brady? He was scrawny looking kid who nobody thought had the goods. The real reason is that even though the NFL scouts(as a whole) are exceptional at spotting potential greatness in young QBs.....mistakes occasionally happen. To show how good they are, have a look at their success rates(which I will do below). For the sake of the following numbers I will prematurely list Kaepernick, Wilson, Luck & RG3 as elite QBs(though I personally fully hesitate with three of those). My choices of elite QBs is obviously a somewhat subjective list....for instance, I don't class Schaub as elite.....nor do I class Bledsoe or McNair as elite etc. In the last 25 years of drafting.....1988-2012 QBs selected after pick 36 Total drafted = 218 Elite QBs = 2 (Brady, Wilson) Percent = 0.9% (1 in 109 picks) QBs selected between pick 1-36 Total drafted = 59 Elite QBs = 13 (Aikman, Favre, Manning, McNabb, Brees, Roethlisberger, Manning, Rodgers, Flacco, Ryan, Kaepernick, RG3, Luck) Percent = 22% (1 in 4.5 picks) It is clear that the collective minds of the NFL scouts virtually never miss on assessing whether a QB has the chance to become elite.....and it is a very rare situation for a QB to fall below the #36 pick and then become an elite talent. This is why I balk every time I see somebody post "We can pick up a good QB in the 2nd round(meaning our #41 pick)." Odds are that if a QB is allowed to fall to the 41st spot....there is little chance that he will become a great NFL QB.

According to the Trade Value Chart.....http://www.drafttek.com/tradechart1.asp?RequestTeam=BUF .....our #41 & #71 picks would be basically worth the same as the Texans #27 & #124. Lots of combinations could easily work without having to give up a 1st round pick next season.....or lose a pick this season.

My sherlockian powers of deduction were surely pushed to their limits with that one.

For me, if the contract shows that it is half incentives......then that means we have drafted him to be a backup.....which I am happy with. If the contract shows it to be a solid 6m/year type deal.....then that means we have tried to either get a cheap crappy starter....or we have a very pricey backup. Either way I won't be happy with that. Like I said, the contract will determine if this was a good thing or not.....at least for me that is.

Not sure. I'll change it to either a "yes" or "no" depending on the contract details.

A lot of assumptions indeed . Following just one assumption though.....and that is the assumption that Kolb will be the #2 QB behind a rookie starter.....neither his injury history nor his overall ability compared to Fitz will be relevant unless the rookie gets injured. I'm hoping that we not only get lucky and get a superstar QB in the draft......but that he also stays healthy for 15 years so we never get to see how good/bad our backups are.

Have you actually heard that the projected salary cap will significantly increase in 2014? I have a fair interest in the cap side of things and have generally heard that it will remain pretty much the same for the next few years. If this is the case, the Bills will be very tight next year in regards to the cap.....but not as much as many other teams. Link here to an article on cap projections. http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2012/06/18/Leagues-and-Governing-Bodies/NFL-cap.aspx

Perhaps shrewdness was the wrong word as it implies too high a level of intelligence.....but depending on Kolb's contract, it certainly could be a better cap situation for us......with a few assumptions. Assuming both Kolb & Fitz are of similar quality.....both being crappy starting NFL QBs.... .....and assuming the Bills intend for Kolb(Fitz) to be a backup to a rookie.... .....and assuming Kolb's contract is actually a 2 yr/6.5m deal with another 6.5m in incentives(for percent of snaps taken ala TJax's deal).... .....then the Bills will get what they want from their Kolb QB for less cap hit than had they retained Fitz.....even if Fitz had agreed to a 3m/year pay cut. (Assumed)Kolb is 6.5m + 10m Fitz dead cap hit = 16.5m over 2013/14 (Assumed)Fitz would have been 21m - 6m pay cut = 15m over 2013/14....plus another 4m dead if cut after 2014 totaling 19m. Which of course would have been 25m if Fitz refused to take a pay cut.

So which team are you thinking will be so horrible that they will end up with the #1 draft pick next year......and be willing to trade it away? In other words, the worst team in the league most likely won't have an elite QB on their roster. What makes you think that they will trade away a potential star QB at any price?

That's a little disappointing to hear.....and unfortunately very believable. Mind you, without such a big ego....such a great belief in oneself....he likely never would have achieved all that he did in the NFL, and simply given up after the first few knock backs.