Dibs

I mentioned Warner as undrafted(line 4).....and Romo doesn't come close to the talent level that we are talking about IMO(though his new contract does lol). Hasselback etc....I was responding to RuntheDamnBall about elite level QBs......and I personally couldn't give a toss about the stats our rookie QB will put up, I only care whether he is going to be great....or not great. Kaepernick went #36 .....but the experts nearly always recognize the potential for greatness at the QB position.....thus nearly all of the great QBs(last 25 years) were selected inside the top 36 picks. The NFL scouts actually do a fantastic job in regards to QB analysis. I totally agree with your final thoughts though. Effectively I was trying to point out that if we don't take a chance in the 1st round.....we might as well not bother taking a chance in the 2nd.

I still don't know.....and have been checking the contract sites every few hours. Still no details released.

I tend to think that the number of Brady-like situations is so small that they can be simply looked at as aberrations with no commonality amongst them. In the last 25 years.....after the 36th pick in the draft.....there is only one.....Tom Brady......unless one wants to count Wilson as well after only one year in the NFL. Schaub would be the next level down IMO.....but is alone in that skill level bracket as well. If you include all of the thousands of undrafted QBs as well.....only Warner can be added. Particularly with this QB draft class....the worst in a decade(as the OPs article claims).....if any given QB in this draft falls to our #41 pick......he most very likely hasn't got even a glimmer of a chance of "that something special".....and we should select a different position IMO.

No he wasn't.

If you have a closer look, you will find historically that that statement is true(red) from pick #37 onwards.

Fixed

I've done a fair bit of research into this sort of thing(though nowhere near as much as I'd like to do)......and the only real integral ingredient to winning a SB in the modern era is having an elite QB. It can be done without one, but it is much harder. You mention "...first-round, or elite...". These are quite different things. A great deal of the good NFL players have been selected in the 1st round. As I showed above, half of the starting RBs in the past 13 SBs were 1st round selections. All this really means is that you have a better chance to make(win) the SB with a solid RB.....most of which are selected in the 1st round. An elite RB.....I agree with you.....they are not integral to winning(or getting to) the SB. Mind you, there is no need to specifically highlight this fact IMO, as every elite player of every position(apart form QB) does not greatly increase ones chances of winning the SB. Furthering that concept.....there would be a potentially decent analytics argument to be made regarding the amount of money it costs to have an elite player on your team, compared to having 2-3 very good players. Perhaps the only position actually worth the money is the QB position.

You said this in another thread(which I responded to)......but since it is so very incorrect, I thought I'd re-post here.... 1st round RBs who played in Super Bowls since 2000: (Red = Main RB for winning SB team) (Red bold = Drafted by, and main RB for winning SB team) (Purple = Main RB for losing SB team) (Purple Bold = Drafted by, and main RB for losing SB team) 2010: Rashard Mendenhall (Steelers) 2009: Reggie Bush (Saints) 2009: Joeseph Addai (Colts) 2009: Donald Brown (Colts) 2008: Edgerrin James (Cardinals) 2007: Laurence Maroney (Patriots) 2006: Joeseph Addai (Colts) 2006: Thomas Jones (Bears) 2006: Cedric Benson (Bears) 2005: Jerome Bettis (Steelers) 2005: Shaun Alexander (Seashawks) 2003: Antowain Smith (Patriots) 2002: Tyrone Wheatley (Raiders) 2001: Antowain Smith (Patriots) 2001: Marshall Faulk (Rams) 2001: Trung Canidate (Rams) 2000: Jamal Lewis (Ravens) 2000: Ron Dayne (Giants)

Though I wouldn't ever consider the concept that having a 1st round running back is essential to making a Super Bowl.......I also wouldn't advocate the concept that making a Super Bowl is somehow counter intuitive to selecting a RB in the 1st round(as you have done above). Furthermore, your statement is quite incorrect...... 1st round RBs who played in Super Bowls since 2000: (Red = Main RB for winning SB team) (Red bold = Drafted by, and main RB for winning SB team) (Purple = Main RB for losing SB team) (Purple Bold = Drafted by, and main RB for losing SB team) 2010: Rashard Mendenhall (Steelers) 2009: Reggie Bush (Saints) 2009: Joeseph Addai (Colts) 2009: Donald Brown (Colts) 2008: Edgerrin James (Cardinals) 2007: Laurence Maroney (Patriots) 2006: Joeseph Addai (Colts) 2006: Thomas Jones (Bears) 2006: Cedric Benson (Bears) 2005: Jerome Bettis (Steelers) 2005: Shaun Alexander (Seashawks) 2003: Antowain Smith (Patriots) 2002: Tyrone Wheatley (Raiders) 2001: Antowain Smith (Patriots) 2001: Marshall Faulk (Rams) 2001: Trung Canidate (Rams) 2000: Jamal Lewis (Ravens) 2000: Ron Dayne (Giants)

Interestingly he had Dareus going at #13.

Serious or facetious? History has clearly shown that the NFL scouts as a whole have an incredibly good success rate at being able to determine which QBs have at least a glimmer of the chance for greatness in the NFL. The chances that a QB gets overlooked......gets selected past the 36th pick in the draft.....and then develops into a great QB are miniscule. Listing off Wilson as a reason to wait to select your QB in the draft is not only premature(he may regress or simply end up having a journeyman career)......but not logical as his case is a very rare occurrence(assuming he actually pans out to become a great QB).

This was obviously written before the new NFL year. The dead cap hit is still 4.65m......but is now spread over the 2013 & 2014 seasons(similar to us with Fitz's cutting). This means that the Falcons have a 3.1m dead cap hit next season(2014)......but more importantly for them, they free up 4.5m in cap space this season(2013). Considering how they only had about 1.7m above the cap.....and still had to sign their rookies.....they needed to do something drastic to clear up some cap money.

This page shows the actual cap hits for QBs......and can be filtered by year. http://www.spotrac.c...it/quarterback/ It looks like the Ravens structured Flacco very wisely with his cap hits remaining relatively low(under 15m) till 2016. Romo on the other hand looks like his new contract could destroy the cowboys next year(2014). The averages cap hits for the top 5 QBs are as follows..... 2013: 19.2m 2014: 20.0m 2015: 21.6m 2016: 21.8m Ryan & Cutler become FAs after 2013. Rodgers, Stafford, Dalton, Kaepernick, Newton & Smith after 2014. (Obviously some of these contracts will increase the figures). It looks to me as though the top end QB contracts have been held roughly static for the next few year(as one would expect considering the static cap situation). (Apart from Romo.....that contract seems to ignore the existence of the salary cap lol). On a side note, am I the only one who wonders how the Packers are still paying Rodgers only 10.5m/season?

Looks like the cap won't have a significant increase till 2015. http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2012/06/18/Leagues-and-Governing-Bodies/NFL-cap.aspx

Which they did in season 2 to very good effect IMO.......and I love the books(my favourite fantasy novels ever....and I've read quite a few). I have faith that the writers will be able to maintain the quality throughout......and it certainly helps having the author(Martin) having a hands on role with the scripts & production.

Actually, it looks like it fully explains it. Player contracts are typically structured with a progressive annual increase to the players base salary. This is due to assumed increases in the cap.....increases which have not occurred in the past 4 years. Furthermore, star players.....the players that teams are desperate to acquire.....have been seeing an increase in pay each year in FA which has been vastly disproportionate to the cap increases over the last 4 years. (Mario as example) With the 2014 cap being projected to be only a 1-2%(1m-2m) rise over the 2013 cap, the numbers are finally catching up with most(all) teams and they simply cannot afford to lock in expensive multi-year contracts. Here are the cap levels(and percentage increases from previous year) for the last 10 years. 2004: 80.6m (7.4%) 2005: 85.5m (6.1%) 2006: 102m (19.3%) 2007: 109m (6.9%) 2008: 116m (6.4%) 2009: 129m (11.2%) 2010: Uncapped 2011: 120m (-7.0%) - for the 2 years 2012: 120.6m (0.5%) 2013: 123m (2%) As you can see, the cap has decreased from the 2009 cap number(4 years ago). With player contracts increasing each year(particularly star players).....teams are having to cut good players just to balance the cap books.....and with the standard annual increases placed inside contracts(meaning cap hits for players on the roster will likely rise in 2014 well above the predicted cap rise), teams simply cannot afford to be signing players to long term contracts at the moment. Basically, according to the cap numbers, player salaries should be of a similar level to 6% higher than the 2008 player salaries. See the figures above. It actually went down in 2011......and the amounts it has been going up(and projected to go up next season) are much less than in previous times. From what I have read, the old 6-7% increases will start again in 2015.

There really isn't many at all.....which I believe is one of the reasons that the Bills have been very frugal with money this off-season. Brad Smith is the obvious choice. If we can't figure out how to get value out of him this year then I would say he gets cut. 3.5m saved......0.5m dead. Erik Pears: I would need somebody like yourself to assess his situation....but.... 2.9m saved......0.55m dead Other possibilities based upon 2014 performance might be..... Kyle Williams: 3.9m saved......1.9m dead. Mark Anderson: 2.9m saved......3m dead. Aaron Williams: 1.1m saved......0.6m dead. Very few players(if any) can be cut for cap space reasons in 2014.

I totally agree.....but that wasn't the point the poster was making. .....and if you were to ask me.....the absolute best percentage one could juggle based upon any reasonable research would be a 1 in 5 shot.....certainly not very good odds. Actually it was when you first made an assumption on me and then stated it was "obvious and idiotic" that kinda opened up the rudeness..... ....but who cares, yes? We'll start afresh.....no harm done but a few words(which can't break bones). Well.....yes it is. Between you and me(don't tell anybody else).....I was trying to generate a little enthusiasm to counter the overtly negative outlook of the OP. Mind you, my point on how we compare to the last decade of Bills teams still stands......as in we have some legitiamte(or close to legitimate) exciting stars and are likely in a better building position than previously. But I fully take your point in that even considering that.....the position we are in is not very exciting.

Uggg.....had a brain spasm. Book 6 isn't out yet. I misremembered 5 for 6. Book 6 will likely be a couple of years away(based upon Martin's recent release times). It was book 5 that was massive as it followed the other half of the characters......and then joined the two sets of characters back together for the last 400(?) pages.

What a delightfully rude and obnoxious person you are. Statistically stupid? I don't understand that comment. I've actually done a whole lot of research on the chances of landing an elite QB and apart from having a top 4 draft pick QB.....statistically speaking the best chance you have is by drafting one in the 5-36 bracket. You may think they are all going to be of Trent Edwards calibre(and you may be right) but I'm happy to allow the NFL scouts determine if a player is worthy of selecting in that range.......and let the progress of time tell me how they pan out as NFL pro's. I actually wanted to cut Fitz for cap reasons. I don't see much difference between having a bad, poor, average or decent QB as it is only the great QBs who will give you a decent chance of winning the SB(as you agree with)......and paying a lot of money to a QB who is not considered by the rest of the league to be of starter quality(as proven in FA after we cut him), is bad usage of cap money. .....and as for your comment of 6-7 wins Vs 2 wins..... You seem to have set your sights firmly into mediocrity there. I'd personally prefer the chance of winning more than 6-7 games in a season than going into the season feeling that that was the best we can achieve. If your rookie is crap and only wins 2 games......draft another one. It is defeatist to settle for mediocrity. I'm getting the feeling that this is some sort of Fitz defense. If so, please shut up and go away. My comments were made after he was cut & my thoughts on whether he should or shouldn't have been cut are irrelevant to the points I made. How am I deluding myself? My initial point......which relates to the premise of the actual thread(unlike your strange divergence).....was that we have several star players which is not only good for future team building(elite QB or not)......but are fun to watch. I want us to be a good team. You stated that we need an elite QB to achieve that......so what is delusional about wanting us to look for one? It seems to me that you are doing a fair amount of self-deluding by stating that even though you expect we could only win 6-7 games.......that you could somehow maintain interest in the season. Perhaps you were meaning that as long as the play isn't disgusting(2 wins), then you can enjoy watching the individual games(ignoring the season as a whole). If so......star players are fun to watch. We have 3......which was my initial point. Anyway......it was fun chatting. Please feel free to misread what I wrote, divert it to your own personal agendas, incorrectly assume hidden motives, make wrong assumptions about my thoughts or attack and insult me.

So you are saying that the best way(only way?) to win is by having a great QB(which I don't disagree with)........but you shouldn't hope to get one in the draft as that will only lead to disappointment? ......and furthermore that it makes no difference if you have some good players or don't(as if having a good team around a star QB isn't going to increase your chances)? Why do you even follow football?

:blink:

I don't understand your point.

I'm the opposite. I understand that years of ineptitude can get you down.....but I see us in quite a positive light at the moment. At the moment we have 3 players who are generally considered to be top 3 at their positions(Spiller, Mario, Byrd).....plus another top 3 guy on special teams(McKelvin). When was the last time we had even one player who was generally considered to be top 3 at their position on this team(not including STers)? I remember several years where the only player on our team that was considered to be amongst the best at his position was the friggin Punter. If we get lucky in the draft and land a top 5 level QB.......our team has the foundation in place. QB, DE & OT(Glenn having the best potential IMO of becoming a top rated player). It's far easier to find decent and good players to fill the holes than it is to find the handful of star players needed to become a great team. How can you not be enthused?

I find this thread ironic in that usually I refrain from posting on a topic due to the high traffic of irrational negative posts......whereas I have refrained from posting on the Kolb topic due to the high traffic of irrational positive posts........yet a special thread gets created for it. Heh, go figure.