Dibs

African or European?

Though tainted is a very subjective term.....a better term wold have been "influenced"......yes. I most certainly am influenced by the fact that EJ was a 1st round pick. I have no illusions that my abilities to analyze a players potential is minimal and am quite happy to defer to the experts. The only opinions that actually matter are those of the Bills experts. Not only are they the only ones who can make a decision on EJ, but they are in by far the best position to make the assessments.

If you don't understand the concept of upside(or potential), the draft must be a complete mystery to you.

How do you get that from hist post? He said "The point is we don't know what EJ Manuel will become.", not that he will develop just like Foles did.

The point would be to discuss EJ's relative merits and flaws.......rather than arguing the value of one's made up mind.

Actually, from looking at the other thread which asked for people's confidence level in EJ......a vast majority showed that they hadn't made their minds up......and only an insignificantly small amount had made their minds up that EJ will definitely be the answer at QB.

There'd be at least one guy who would think he was rubbish if he makes the next 3 probowls and wins us the SB. I just couldn't understand why at this point in time(when it is reasonable to have not given up on him) you would make that comment.

Are you suggesting that most(if not all) of the people who feel that they haven't seen enough of EJ at this point will feel the same way after 4 years and 11 knee surgeries?

There is no doubt that the 2nd half contained more inexperienced(and crappy QBs)......but Geno & Tannehill were in both halves......Smith is not a chump QB.....and they played against Big Ben and Ryan(both considered to be very good QBs). As several posters have mentioned, it shouldn't have been a surprise considering the early injuries and new system......but it doesn't take away from the fact that the passing D has performed exceptionally well over the last 7 games.

I'd say that they would indeed be trying.......trying very hard to not see the obvious differences.

I tend to think that if FJ had not gotten injured in 2011 that there would be very little opposition to the concept. As it is, he may still have several more years left being a Bill. If the Bills deem that his age isn't a factor & he plays another 3 seasons......again I can't see that there would be much opposition to his WOF inclusion. As it stands right now though.....if he retires after this season. I would think his WOF inclusion would be very line-ball. He has all the intangibles......but hasn't produced enough for this team over enough time to be considered famous.

I think the above is a very good way to word things. A team rarely gets the chance to draft a QB who they think will be elite. If one is available they should pull the trigger on him regardless of having another potential(but not proven) elite prospect. I personally haven't given up on EJ.......but the concept of having two EJs on the roster only increases the likelihood that one of them will become the guy.....regardless of the fact that progression time would likely be hindered for one or both of them. I am doubtful that there will be a QB available to them whom they think will be elite......but I certainly won't be upset(or feel that they have given up on EJ) if they select one in the 1st round.

Great deal indeed.....surprisingly great. I'm wondering how after we thought he was worth $3m for a test drive in 2013, we can then get him for $2.83m/year after he produced well. I'm very happy with this

Yeah, these are the sort of things that have had me unsure of the situation. The spotrac(a cap specialty site) link earlier saying: No. Rollover money from 2012 into 2013 is treated as "adjusted cap". Any unused "adjusted" money in 2013 cannot be rolled over again into 2014. ....in combination with the wording of the CBA.... The amount of Room carried over will be adjusted downward based on the final room available after the year-end reconciliation. ....has me still in two minds. As I said before, I hope you are right as the extra $10m will be very handy(and it also would clear all negativity from people in regards to the Fitz money). I'm happy not making up my mind one way or the other till the new caps are announced.

Though I think there is usually still an increase in cap hit as the years progress in a contract, I don't think the type of contract that you are describing is as common today as it was a few(5?) years back......and certainly not with the Bills contracts. Here is a look at the Bills recent major contracts: Mario: 9.8, 12.4, 18.4, 19, 19.5, 16.5 K.Williams: 5, 6, 6, 5.8, 5.6, 7 Stevie: 4.3, 5.7, 8.5, 8.9, 9 Wood: 5.3, 6, 6.1, 6.3 And some other random large contract from around the league....(literally random....not cherry picking) Romo: 11.8, 21.8, 25.3, 15.1, 19, 19.5, 20.5 Mike Wallace: 3.3, 17.3, 12.1, 13.7, 13.7 Levitre: 4.6, 8.6, 8.6, 8.6, 8.6, 8.6, 5.8 Tamba Hali: 4, 14.5, 15.5, 11.5, 12 N. Suh: 3.1, 11.9, 6.6, 10.5, 21.4, 13.2 (Note here that the dead cap hit for the big 21.4 year is 19.5) I don't know why the practice of doing the sort of contracts you mentioned slowed(or stopped). Maybe players realized that they were ending up with less money? I don't know, but it is quite apparent that those sort of contracts are no longer common.

Hughes is signed through 2014.....becomes a FA in 2015. If the pattern continues of re-signing desired players within their last contract year continues, I would imagine that we will rework his deal sometime during next season.

Several posters(myself included) arew not convinced of the ability to re-roll rollover money. The link from uncle flap a few posts earlier has the sportrac website thinking this way.....plus the wording of the CBA looks like it doesn't work this way. I really hope it does......but I'm doubtful. From the CBA: The amount of Room carried over will be adjusted downward based on the final room available after the year-end reconciliation.

Isn't it bald-faced?.....or bare-faced?

Espn's Total QBR has EJ with 42.3 and Lewis with 22.9. Both are stinky numbers though.

This isn't definitive(at least in my nor many others eyes). Unfortunately I cant find the sprortrac link that states that the rollover cap dollars do not work like cell phone credit. The last line of the appropriate area in the CBA also states: The amount of Room carried over will be adjusted downward based on the final room available after the year-end reconciliation. I hope you are correct though & we can move $17m into 2014 instead of $7m. (It also would give Badol nothing to complain about which would be an absolute treat). We'll find out soon enough now. So you understand that you made a mistake when you wrote.... "But perhaps if you understood the "cap floor" rule you could understand why the only financial reason to push Fitz' cap figure into 2014 was to assure that money became a cap credit in the next 4 year period." As you stated that it was the only financial reason I assumed that we were finished. Apparently not. Though you seem to word things placing a causal emphasis upon the Fitz money......I agree with what you said. The Bills didn't intend on spending the 2012 caryover......therefore they then placed the Fitz money into the 2014 year. At least give them credit for not being total morons. They wouldn't have blindly put the Fitz money into 2014 & then turn around a bit later saying "Damn....that now makes it impossible for us to spend into the rollover. What silly sausages we are. " I don't know how much clearer I can make the tightness of the 2014 cap look for you. I'll cut and post the response I gave to simpleman as it was after my response to you(you may not have read it). In it I spend the 2012 carryover....and front load Byrd as much as possible. You seem to always miss the concept that any contract extensions or new contracts in 2013 would have placed a chunk of new money onto the 2014 cap numbers......a cap that will only minimally rise....after a cap that only minimally rose.....after a cap that only minimally rose. We have $17m left(I've removed $1m for the assumed Branch Signing Bonus). Minus $7m for Fitz. Now we hit the rollover($10m) How do we spend it? Sign Levitre by matching the Titans contract? $4.6m cap hit ($5.4m left) Sign Byrd to $9m/year? Lets pay him $12m to try to lower the 2014 cap hit ($0.3m left) Now we hit 2014. The cap is likely only $126m next season. We have $98m committed....plus $5m dead = $103m Plus Branch $4m, plus Levitre $8.6m, plus Byrd $6m = $121.6m ($4.4m left) Now we can't rework Spiller or Hughes or Williams or Dareus....and have to do some cap work to sign a punter and our new rookies. If you are so sure that the Bills have been trying their best to not spend money.....instead of simply stating it in response to actual numbers.....why not open up your calculator and show us how we would have been able to spend into the 2012 rollover and still maintain a healthy amount of 2014 cap room to work with. (Using reasonable contract numbers). It seems you just want the Bills to spend money because they can. It made no sense to overspend on players this year as it would necessarily mean that they could not spend it on better players next year. The Bills management of the cap in my eyes(this year) shows a firm Commitment to Winning by setting us up to not only be able to retain our budding young stars but to be able to take advantage of a good buyers FA market if we so chose. If the unlikely happens and J.Graham becomes a FA......we will now be able to easily make him a Bill. We wouldn't be able to do that had we spent all of our available money this year. Edit: I think there is a way they could have done it while only effecting the 2014 by only $2-4m. We could have signed Byrd and frontloaded it to around a $16m 2013 cap hit.....and having it fall to minimal salary in 2014. The problem I think was that the Bills were not convinced that he was worth the money he was asking for. Perhaps if they were convince, this is the exact sort of contract that we would have seen. As we didn't give Byrd his huge contract though.....there wasn't any other reasonable way to do it as far as I can see. Only minimal extra cap room for the 2014 cap unfortunately.(25K).......but it would mean an extra $8.85m cap room in 2015 & $8.95m cap room in 2016.

To add to uncle flap, it also depends on the current player contracts and the cap situation for the following season. As it happened, we have/had very few players hitting FA next season that we would want to give significant contracts to(namely Byrd, Branch and Wood). As you likely know, we extended Wood & Branch....and we can't deal with Byrd till after the season. We are then looking at players who have 2 years left on their contract(viewed from the start of this season). The only time a team will rework a contract 2 seasons prior to its conclusion is if they are woefully underpaying a star, or they are endeavoring to free up cap space. Also, the new CBA precludes the reworking of contracts within the first 3 seasons which meant that the only players eligible to do this with was Spiller, Hughes and A.Williams. Neither Hughes or Williams would have been considered worthy of extension at the start of this season......and Spiller....I would think that neither party would have wanted to extend him at that point. Essentially all of the players that we have been able to rework(and it made sense to rework), we have reworked. The other aspect is the tight 2014 cap. Any contract extensions or new contracts would have placed a chunk of new money onto the 2014 cap numbers. Branch for instance has a new contract, therefore will be taking whatever that amount is($4?) off of the 2014 cap. A quick glance at the situation had we tried to spend the 2012 rollover....and placed the $7m Fitz money into the 2013 cap instead..... We have $17m left(I've removed $1m for the assumed Branch Signing Bonus). Minus $7m for Fitz. Now we hit the rollover($10m) How do we spend it? Sign Levitre by matching the Titans contract? $4.6m cap hit ($5.4m left) Sign Byrd to $9m/year? Lets pay him $12m to try to lower the 2014 cap hit ($0.3m left) Now we hit 2014. The cap is likely only $126m next season. We have $98m committed....plus $5m dead = $103m Plus Branch $4m, plus Levitre $8.6m, plus Byrd $6m = $121.6m ($4.4m left) Now we can't rework Spiller or Hughes or Williams or Dareus....and have to do some cap work to sign a punter and our new rookies. As it stands with how the Bills have managed things, we go into next season with around $19m(as far as I can figure it). If we sign Byrd to a similar structure that I just mentioned(the 2015 cap will be greatly increased, plus we will have $12m extra from the dead cap)......that means we will have $13m after signing Byrd to his #1 safety contract. This also means that we could bring in a top FA or 2(in a buyers market)......and rework our players throughout the year. I know which situation I would rather be in.

You beat me to it.....I was going to be doing a breakdown on this too. Great Job!

I've looked it up now(the 4 year cap floor).....thanks for the heads up on it(I'm on the same page with you in regards to that now). With the 4 year period being 2013-2016 though.....the Fitz money being put into 2014 rather than 2013 makes even less difference. The rule is: A team can be under the floor in one or more seasons in a cycle without violating the CBA, as long as its total spending during the four-year period reaches the required percentage of the cap. The $7m for Fitz is going to count towards the 2013-2016 cap floor period regardless of what year it is placed into(2013 or 2014), as either year will count towards the total spending during that four year period. You would have had a point had the cap floor period been from 2014-2017 as the Bills would have been moving money into that cap floor period that could have been left out.....but as 2013 and 2014 are both inside the cap floor 4 year period, I really don't understand what point you are making. Aside from the concept that you can't rework a contract within the first 3 year(effects Dareus & Williams)......at the start of this season we likely had no idea if we would want to rework Branch, A.Williams, Hughes and likely Dareus & Spiller too. It really seems like you are desperately straining to find a way to show how the Fitz money was bad. Is it ever possible for you to see information that you hadn't fully factored previously and change your mind on something? This is getting crazy. To suggest that we should rework player contracts 2 years before needed when we haven't fully assessed their worth is madness.

Because this thread is about debating Thad Lewis and the backup QB position......and I'll add that I personally was very pleased to read the OP and find no mention of EJ. Obviously many of us enjoy discussing more than just the one crusade topic, as is apparent in this thread. Go and post in one of the many other threads about your views on EJ and the starting QB position......not here.

I tend to think it is more of an away game thing rather than the defense figured him out thing. His home game performances have been far better than his away performances. I put this down to a confidence/comfortability issue. I was surprised after the Jags game that so many people seemed to lose faith in him at that point. Though in the 1st quarter of the Jags game he played as horribly as he did in the Bucs game, he shook it off and produced by far his best away performance of the season. I believe that when he can enter a game and be comfortable and confident(in both away and home games), his inaccuracy issues will become a good deal less. I am doubtful however that he will ever be considered an accurate passer......but if his other abilities can develop and shine I am hopeful that he can become an elite QB. It really is a shame that he has missed the number of games he has this season. I would have loved to see him in a couple more games to see if he was truly starting to settle down or not. Hopefully he plays this week so we can get one more look at him before the long off-season.