Dibs

What's the difference between an excuse and a reason? Any reasonable person who is asked whether there is a good chance that a rookie QB missing training camp would most likely be set back somewhat would answer in the positive.

I personally think that would be great. Nothing to do with Byrd or skills or anything like that.......I just like the concept of having a 4th Williams starting on the Defense. On a serious note, I'm assuming that his limited playing time this season would hinder legitimate assessments of him.....but does anybody have any legitimate thoughts about Duke Williams' ability/potential?

The Dean.

There has been a lot of discussion about Stevie Johnson this season. Many feel that his negative aspects(non-clutch, attitude, character etc) outweigh his positive aspects(separation ability, consistency, veteran etc) and that the Bills should rid themselves of him(by trade or cutting). Others feel the opposite and view him as an asset to the team. As SJ will be earning an average of $8.77m/year over the next 3 seasons(12th highest amongst WRs based upon 2013 figures), I came to wonder whether his influence on the field had a big enough positive effect on the offense to warrant his high dollar figure. Though I know the sample size is limited, I proceeded to compare the offensive production of the team(particularly passing) of the games where SJ started(12 games) to those of the games where he didn't play(4 games). In the 12 SJ games: QB stats: 229-408-2472-11-14 Completion %: 56.1 Passing YPA: 6.1 Passing Yards/game: 206.0 QBR: 68.8 Total yards: 322.7 3rd down %: 31.8 Score: 19.9 pts/game Record 4-8 In the 4 non-SJ games: QB stats: 70-114-901-5-1 Completion %: 61.4 Passing YPA: 7.9 Passing Yards/game: 225.3 QBR: 97.1 Total yards: 354.5 3rd down %: 39.7 Score: 25.0 pts/game Record 2-2 As the stats show, the Bills offense produced far better results without SJ in the game. Looking for other factors I realized that Tuel only played with SJ in the game.....and since Tuel's stats were far below EJ & Thad's I decided to remove his stats. In the SJ games(minus Tuel stats): QB stats: 203-349-2163-10-11 Completion %: 58.2 Passing YPA: 6.2 QBR: 72.8 Though this improved the SJ games, again I found myself looking at numbers that were far better without SJ in the game. As there was 3 of the 4 non-SJ games played by Thad, I thought I'd compare just Thad's 5 games(2 with SJ, 3 without). (There was no point doing this with EJ as he had only 1 game without SJ......which was his best game of the season). Thad with SJ: QB stats: 43-71-436-1-2 Completion %: 60.6 Passing YPA: 6.1 Passing Yards/game: 218.0 QBR: 71.1 Total yards: 283.5 3rd down %: 43.8 Score: 20 pts/game Thad without SJ: QB stats: 50-86-656-3-1 Completion %: 58.1 Passing YPA: 7.6 Passing Yards/game: 218.7 QBR: 89.1 Total yards: 368.3 3rd down %: 38.8 Score: 21.0 pts/game Though obviously the sample size is much smaller, this was closer to what I was expecting to see......but I'd say still an edge to the offence without SJ in the lineup. Finally, I thought I would look at home game performances since 3 of the 4 games played without SJ were at home(and again I removed the Tuel game at KC). In the 4 SJ home games(non Tuel): QB stats: 73-120-823-5-3 Completion %: 60.8 Passing YPA: 6.9 Passing Yards/game: 205.8 QBR: 84.8 Total yards: 369.3 3rd down %: 33.9 Score: 24.8 pts/game In the 3 non-SJ home games: QB stats: 54-85-654-4-1 Completion %: 63.5 Passing YPA: 7.7 Passing Yards/game: 218.0 QBR: 97.9 Total yards: 341.7 3rd down %: 41.8 Score: 26.7 pts/game This is I think the closest of all the comparrisons.....but again there is a slight edge to the non-SJ games. What do I conclude from all of this? As there is only a small sample size and there are a lot of factors that cannot be factored......I don't think any firm conclusion can be drawn. I think the numbers might strongly suggest however that the offence performed just as well(if not better) without it's #1 WR playing. Considering the negatives that SJ brings to the table......and the concept that his pressence on the field may not be worth anywhere near the level of money he will be getting(as the existing offense seem to perform as good or better without him in the game).......I would not be adverse to the concept of the Bills releasing SJ this off-season.

Fair enough. I was referring to the post directly before your one where he didn't......and I didn't realize the change. My apologies.

I can't recall how we have been in the last handful of games, but I'm fairly confident that our short yard run game was very good throughout the season(though it sucked at the goal line).

You forgot Lawson.

You can't go around trusting the Bills staff. You need to believe that they are so incompetent that your own meager knowledge and skills dwarf theirs.......until we make the playoffs of course.......but only if they don't lose a playoff game.

And the concept that KW has voiced his agreement to the concept doesn't have you thinking that it might be a legitimate issue?

If you are refering to Bill in NY, he didn't say that he thought Thad was the better QB.....he said he thought that Thad wasn't a worse QB right now.....which I would agree with. Neither are good, both have flaws.....and though I could imagine EJ having a better game against the Pats than what Thad did, I can also imagine him having a worse game.....most likely having a similar game though.

Yes, very interesting statement from him considering the Chris Brown statement a week ago(as papazoid linked above). This is going to be great fun speculating till something happens.....and then the inevitable arguments here are going to be awesome. I for one am looking forward to another interesting off-season.

Huh?

This next draft makes 3 years.

I agree that Thad is the better QB right now......but I base that on consistency. If we were to face an important game, I would start EJ as his better games are better than Thad's(his poorer games being worse of course). According to this: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/thaddeus-lewis/ ....Thad is under contract for next season(at a very cheap rate). This I think can only be seen as a good thing for the Bills. Thanks for your random thoughts throughout the season.......very much appreciated.

As OGs make more money than RTs, I think the same logic you applied to drafting an OG would apply to drafting an OT(considering we are set at LT).

.....and we won 5 games against teams with a better record. What's your point?

You realize that P.Manning is only #14 on that list. On the list of qualifying QBs, EJ is #30......no reason to think he needs to be lucky to crack the top 20 IMO.

AP has been injured. His benching is likely akin to that of EJs.

It's all to do with the amount of money being placed. Moving the spread further in the Bills favour means that they need more people to bet on the Bills.

:lol: Very well done.....though a little too British(I'm an Aussie). You got the Collywobbles out of context though......it is used to describe someone or a team that chokes at the final hurdle. Romo throwing a game losing INT could be describes as "He got the Collywobbles." Hehe.....I'm wondering how many people were completely baffled at what you wrote. Thanks for the laugh.

Hyperbole? In games that they have finished.... Thad 2-2 EJ 4-5

Where's your pride man(or woman)? Are you so shell shocked from following the dreary Bills all these years that you have given up hope before the games are actually played? "The Patriots are going to kill them" Are they? We just shut out the Dolphins without EJ and Stevie.....and missing A.Williams for much of the game. This is our chance to battle against the odds, prove that we are better than our record, and smash the Patriots and Brady into the past. .....or we can whimper and moan and give up before we even get the chance......because those nasty Patriots are going to kill us.

You and I must have a different dictionary. "There is still the possibility" does not mean that he believes that EJ will do what Foles did.

I don't understand why everything always has to be so polarized.....or why different concepts have to always be mutually exclusive. Kelly certainly did get lucky. That doesn't mean that he isn't a good coach or won't be a good coach. Marrone didn't get lucky and have a good 2nd year QB make things look better. That doesn't mean that he is a bad or good coach, orthat he will/won't be one.