Dibs

No, not drinking. I figured that as I really have no idea how we are going to play(nor the Bears), I may as well predict a score that I'd really like to see.

A team that feels they will be a playoff calibre team that has horrendous backups will pay $5 mil for the only decent backup available(who is also one of the best backups in the league). If the backup needs to come in at any point, it means that the playoff chances for the team are not thrown away. That is worth $5M. No QB who is looking to be the starter would settle for $5M/year. Even Kolb would have gotten $8M+ had he ended up becoming the starter. It seems to me that you suffer from confirmation bias on this. The Bills had no realistic backup QB. In any normal season this would be a problem, but with what appears to be a very good team about to take the field for the first time in a decade, they needed a good backup QB......so they got one(and had to overpay for one). Sure, there is a chance that EJ regresses to worse play than last season.....but do you honestly think that the Bill's FO is thinking that a likely scenario? Do you honestly think that they further thought that Orton would be good enough to be the starter needed to get them to the playoffs? If EJ falters long term this season(benched or injured), it will be devastating to not only our playoff hopes but also to Whaley & Marrone's job security.

47-3 Bills

I figured that's what you meant, but I didn't want to assume. I'll be right there with you(metaphorically speaking), hoping and cheering, and enjoying the play and hopeful development of EJ this year. Go Bills!

I'm not too sure what you actually mean by this. If you are meaning that you fully believe that he will develop into a Franchise QB, then I'm sorry Yolo, I hold that line of thought in similar disdain as I do those who fully believe that he will be a bust(likely more so as the odds are in the favour of the latter). If however you are saying that you believe EJ still has a chance to become a Franchise QB, and you are giving your emotional/mental support to him 100%......then I totally agree. I'm all-in with that!

I think you are arguing something that is subtly different to what The Dean is. You acknowledge that stats can be deceiving(which I am sure that The Dean agrees with).......but then seem to be generalizing in saying that stats do not matter(or interpreted: of no use). Continuing to provide examples of instances where stats can be deceiving is basically irrelevant as nobody disagrees with that. I personally think, considering the vastness of analytics(using stats), that trying to argue that stats are of no use is a predetermined losing battle. One could argue that a person who has no ability to analyze stats in a meaningful manner would find them of no use.....but I don't think that is where you are wanting to go with you argument......I could be wrong though.

I've been thinking the same thoughts about this recently. Though I can imagine some players on a losing team(or in a losing situation) not putting in a full(or close to full) effort, I find it difficult to imagine that a player who regularly plays at less than top effort would have the strength of mind to then be able to focus throughout an entire season(contract year) and put in that consistent high effort. .....but then again, I've never played sport at the top level so my imaginings could be way off the mark.

This amazing gift? http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/170235-dunning-kruger-effect/

Thanks for that. I sometimes feel like an awful lot of posters have me on ignore. Upon seeing my last post though, I thought the stats were a bit misrepresentative in that I showed KO's poor first 10 start stats....and his career start stats.....but neglected to show how good a QB he may have developed into.....i.e. his last 10 starts stats. KO last 10 starts: QBR: 72.9 Comp%: 58.8% YPA: 6.8 TD%: 3.3 INT%: 4.1% And repeated for the easy comparison... EJ last season(10 starts): QBR: 77.7 Comp%: 58.8 YPA: 6.4 TD%: 3.6% INT%: 2.9% I honestly thought the experienced Orton stats would show him pulling away a bit. Instead we see his stats regress from his career average. In essence, KO played considerably worse in his last 10 starts than the rookie EJ.

I am shocked. 4 pages into a KO v EJ thread and nobody has put up any meaningless stats. I'll just have to do it then.... EJ Career & first 10 starts: QBR: 77.7 Comp%: 58.8% YPA: 6.4 TD%: 3.6% INT%: 2.9% KO Career: QBR: 79.9 Comp%: 58.5% YPA: 6.6 TD%: 3.7% INT%: 2.6% KO first 10 starts: QBR: 62.5 Comp%: 54.9% YPA: 5.3 TD%: 3.0% INT%: 4.2% Looks to me like we can expect KO to play to a similar level to that of what EJ did last season.

This has likely been mentioned before, but with preseason hysteria at its apex, I have been constantly reminded of it lately on TSW. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect "The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias manifesting in unskilled individuals suffering from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than is accurate. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their ineptitude.[1] David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University conclude, "the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others".[2]" I am certain that I personally do not suffer from this.....but then again, how would I know? (.....and yes, I am aware of the irony in linking a wiki article for this topic).

Not calling you a liar or anything......but I have seen some of your posts on TSW and found them so thoughtful and erudite that I have a difficult time believing you could be kicked off of any message board. Keep up the good work.

The Poojer is correct. Raised and live in Australia......and yes, our minimum wage is of a level that one can live off it. Proper restaurants are actually the only place in Aus where tipping can occur.....though everyone is always very confused on whether to do so or not. My philosophy here is that I will not tip. Servers earn as much(or more) than retail employees, cleaners, supermarket workers etc, etc. Having spent time in the retail industry in the past.....where I always went above and beyond to give my customers good service(for no tips), the thought of giving a food server 10% (15%?) of my expensive food bill when they were doing a decent(expected) job.....while they were earning more money/hour than I was in my retail job.....I was really turned off the whole tipping concept. If/when I go to the US I will take a different stance though. Not being paid enough to live off in their wage puts a totally different spin on things. It will feel very odd for me.....like giving charity or paying beggars....but I see it as a necessity for you guys. I find that very interesting. I will be passing that bit of info on to my fellow Aussie friends the next time I am out at a restaurant.

Trolling? Drinking? Not one response you got was about your "idea"......they were all about the fact that there are OTHER Tebow threads.....and you knew that before starting this one.....and disguised it with your cryptic title.

So the 15 page Tebow thread wasn't good enough for you? You just had to start another thread.....but this one with a cryptic title so that all of us who didn't want to click on the actual Tebow thread because we didn't want to see anything more about that over hyped tosser unwittingly fall into your Tebow trap. Poo on you sir. Big sloppy runny poo on you.

Having been raised in a culture that doesn't tip, I find tipping quite alien. I don't understand why prices are not simply put up, the staff paid a reasonable wage, and fired if they do not perform well? No tips required.....system works without having extraneous social pressures adding to a basic commerce situation.

Huh?

You'll just have to wait a week like the rest of us.

How about..... Less than 2 weeks ago we only had one of our OL practicing at their current projected starting position(Wood). The OL is rusty, needs more reps and continuity....and as a result has been playing pretty horridly. Horrid OL play leads to poor running game.....and both of those lead to a young irratic QB playing worse than he might otherwise play. Inflate that bubble sir. Week by week that OL is going to improve and become the best in the league.....and as a byproduct, the #1 rushing offense will occur.....which will allow our young irratic QB to appear like a reasonable player. This will happen by week 6. No doubts.....bank it now! (These thoughts in no way represent the actual views of Dibs, are pure hopeful speculation, and are for encouragement purposes only. Any reproduction of said views both verbally or textually is strictly prohibited.)

Power running game? I know it is only preseason but at this point any running game would be an improvement.

Pick #32 though.

The thing I really like about the article is the unintended honesty. It basically says "There are a few teams who we are confident will be good/bad, but for the most of it we don't really have a clue how each team will play this season."

You don't think that there were perhaps a few reasons for that?

I'd have put a "please" in the title.

I don't think it is just continuity that could help the OL. Glenn likely helps shake off some rust....Pears gets more experience in adjusting to RG....any reps for Henderson are going to be useful.....and whomever we settle on at LG will obviously benefit. I'd think differently about it if we had more than one of the OL(Wood) practicing at their positions prior to two weeks ago.....but as it stands, it seems to me the OL needs as much game practice as EJ.