Dibs

There is virtually nobody who is stating that JP will develop into a good starting QB. There are heaps who are saying he won't make it. There are many that are saying...."let's give him enough time & see" My point is.....since none of us 'know'......and there have been many, many QBs to look as bad yet still develop into top QBs......and since we know the chance of finding a top QB in the draft are very slim.....and we know we'd probably have to give the new guy 3 years(at least) before we give up on him.....to prematurely give up on JP(even though he doesn't look any good) at this point has faaaar more chance of seeing us miss the playoffs for years to come than actually being patient & seeing how he 'will' turn out for another season....hell, even the rest of this one without calling for his replacement.

WOW....I'm constantly amazed at the level of brilliant player analysis on this board. So many of you seem to know exactly how a player will develop. That being said.....you say "I don't see".....do you aknowledge that many, many times before, the perception of players, particularly QBs, has beed similar yet many players have defied the predictions to have great NFL careers? If so, refer to post #33......if not, & you are absolutely certain of JPs demise(odds are in your favour).....I'll remember to believe everything you type in future on your talent assessments of players. I mean, if you are so certain, & I am not, you must be correct.

So cantank......are you saying that upon everything you have seen of him in the situations he's been in.....& comparing him to all the QBs you have seen develop(such as Favre & Brees etc)....you are saying that you see no chance that JP can develop....that he can cut down on his errors & bad decisions....no chance that with perhaps better play calling, OL play, WR play, cohesiveness in the team or natural maturity progression on his part that he could become a good NFL starter? It's not realistic to compare him to Manning(for either end of the argument) but to say your mind is made up(I'm not saying yours is) on his future suckiness.....he must really, really, really stink up the field because many great QBs stunk up the field in their first 15 starts yet progressed into top QBs.

You sound like a reasonable sort of guy....but....you'll give him a few more game & that's it? Giving you the benefit of the doubt, you don't need it spelled out how much playing time he has had. What I recommend you do(& everyone of similar thoughts), go to NFL.com & look up the player stats of every starting QB in the league. You'll find that 15-18 starts rarely gets good results for a young QB. I also recommend trying to recollect what was said about other QBs in their formative years. Favre for instance had the entire stadium cheering when he finally threw one away instead of forcing an INT.....Brees 'regressed' so bad after his second (pretty much)full season as starter that SD drafted Rivers. There are actually many things worse than JPL not panning out with us. One would be that we get rid of him & he pans out for another team. Another would be that we spend our non-TOP 5 pick on a QB in hopes to replace him.....we wait 3 years.....& he's a bust too. There is much more chance of this happening than not(only 15% chance of success)....even with picks 2-5 there is only a 38% chance they pan out. QB success link Surely it is logical to spend next FA period & draft fixing the team to not only give enough time to fully assess JP but....if he hasn't got 'it', the replacement QB will have a better chance of succeeding with the better team around him. ....or you could just give JP a few more games & then put Nall in.

Those FAs could change us.....the problem is there are 31 other teams that will be vying for their services. It wouldn't surprise me at all if we land a FA OLB. Thomas, Briggs & June are all tops with Briggs & June already playing in an equivalent system to us. The dream FA at this point would have to be OG Steinbach. Even if we over-payed for him I would be as happy as something that is happy in something that it likes to be in. With luck, CB Samuel will be available at a reasonable price & we can let Clemments be over-payed elsewhere. The good thing is we will have a gazillion dollars under the cap to throw at some of these FAs.

Only....and I emphasise only if you have a top 5 pick. As the numbers show, only 3 hits out of 20 (15%) for picks 6-32 in 17 years. Perhaps there is a higher failure rate amongst non top 5 1st rounders than 2nd & 3rd rounders due to the added pressure & rushing them to start but the numbers clearly show that you may as well wait till the 3rd round to grab your QB....unless you are picking in the top 5. At 38% success, I don't know whether I'd like to risk my #2-5 pick on a QB either. A small trade down from there will grab you at least a high 2nd rounder to take your QB(20% success) & leave you with a higher percent success chance impact draft pick of another position. Honestly, if you list off the non-1st rounder picks in the league, it make you wonder why anyone would risk such a high pick with such a small chance of success when the later rounds produce just as many great QBs at a much lower cost & only slightly lower percentage success chance. Favre(2nd), Brady(6th), Brees(2nd), Hasselbeck(6th), Bulger(6th), Brunnell(5th), Griese(3rd), Huard(3rd), Plummer(2nd)

The way I read Bluefires post it backs up Bush. He did not say that Bush has not produced.....simply that the media hype placed an unreasonable expectation on him. IMO Bush has been great as a rookie but I'm sure that many(basing their expectations on what the media say) feel he is a bit disappointing. Heck, there was such a big deal with the wait before his first TD.....he's a rookie....there should not have been such a focus on him to produce in every area of the game so quickly.

But the point Bluefire was making is that the media were hyping him as the second coming.

That doesn't sound crazy at all. What does sound crazy is somebody slamming every aspect of a team(& player) because they are not performing.....even stating that players/management etc will NEVER be any good & arguing vehemently about the opinions.....& then when they defy said opinion, turn around & cheer them on. If you know that it is a possibility that you could be wrong(therefore able to change based on the actual results).....don't argue so strongly that future improvements are impossible.

How is this thing still going?

Ug.....I kinda feel sorry for Bollinger....thrown to the wolves. Sack, sack, sack, punt

Hey daq.....I thought you didn't want to argue this. IMO it's very much like comparing Marino to Montana. It comes back to personal preference on the importance of each factor involved.....and perhaps a large amount of gut reaction. It's not the sort of thing which one can have a right & wrong opinion is it?

We really have not done any worse on average than the league at drafting QBs. Since 95 we have drafted... 2nd Collins 1st JPL We have added in FA.... Hobert-3rd pick Johnson-1st & 4th Bledsoe(Probowl)-1st Flutie(probowl)-free Holcombe-free Nall-free The average success in drafting QBs is very low....only 20% in the first 3 rounds if you do not draft #1(overall). QB drafting success percentages IMO it is not that we have drafted poorly....we hardly draft QBs period.....It is also not that we waste too many draft picks on FAs....we have had two probowlers that way.....the problem is that we have waisted our picks on old QBs when the team is rebuilding &......we do not spend nearly enough picks on the lower rounds in selecting QBs. Drafting QBs is really just lucky dip.....we simply do not dip into the barrel enough times.

No.....but I wouldn't mind if I did. Adding onto the stats thing...... If we remove the certain successes(56%) of the #1s from the first round we end up with...... 6 hits out of 28....21% success rate. Therefore once you go past the #1 overall pick in the draft, you have pretty much the same chance to draft a successful QB in the 3rd round as you do in the 1st. Even more disturbing is if we look at the first round without the TOP 5 you end up with..... 3 hits out of 20....15% success rate. Basically if you are not choosing your QB in the TOP 5 of the draft you have actually more chance of finding your QB in the 2nd or 3rd rounds(according to the 17 years of history studied).....hell, at those percentages, I'd take a QB on the second day of the draft each year & spend my first day picks on the lines.

Well....it is a bye week.....& I've got the day off work.

Some people around here are certain that JP will be a failure. This determination is leading to speculation about next years draft....in particular the QBs in it. I have spent some time analysing the drafts from 1987-2003 in regards to the QBs selected & the relative success of the selections. You will quickly see that even if we draft very high in the draft there is more chance of whoever we draft failing outright & even if they succeed, it will be several years before we see a result. Successes are in BOLD The number in brackets is the number of years it took for the QB to reach the probowl. THE #1s 5 hits out of 9....56% success rate. Vinny Testaverde Troy Aikman(3) Jeff George Drew Bledsoe(2) Peyton Manning(2) Tim Couch Michael Vick(2) David Carr Carson Palmer(2) TOP 5 8 hits out of 17….47% success rate. (picks 2-5=3 out of 8....38%) #2 Rick Mirer #3 Heath Shuler #3 Steve McNair(9) #5 Kerry Collins(2) #2 Ryan Leaf #2 Donovan McNabb(2) #3 Akili Smith #3 Joey Harrington TOP 10 8 hits out of 22….36% success rate. (picks 6-10=0 out of 5....00%) #6 Kelly Stouffer #7 Andre Ware #6 David Klingler #6 Trent Dilfer #7 Byron Leftwich(???) TOP 20 10 hits out of 28….36% success rate. (picks 11-20=2 out of 6....33%) #13 Chris Miller #16 Dan McGuire #11 Daunte Culpepper(2) #12 Cade McNown #18 Chad Pennington(-) #19 Kyle Boller 1st ROUND TOTAL 11 hits out of 37….30% success rate. (picks 21- =1 out of 9....11%) #26 Jim Harbaugh #? Steve Walsh #? Timm Rosenbach #24 Todd Marinovich #25 Tommy Maddox #? Dave Brown #26 Jim Druckenmiller #32 Patrick Ramsey #22 Rex Grossman(-) 2nd ROUND TOTAL 3 hits out of 15….20% success rate. 3rd ROUND TOTAL 4 hits out of 20….20% success rate. 4th ROUND TOTAL 3 hits out of 33….9% success rate. 5th ROUND TOTAL 1 hits out of 13….8% success rate. 6th ROUND TOTAL 4 hits out of 30….13% success rate. I didn't bother with 7th onwards but....Brad Johnson(superbowl ring), Elvis Grbac, Trent Green & Kurt Warner(superbowl ring) spring to mind. Anyone who thinks drafting a QB high in the first is a guarantee of us vastly improving....or improving in the short term is not looking at the history of drafting QBs clearly.

You were just last in the line relating to the topic at the time.....nothing personal.

I'd go with best 'pure QB'...no worries.

Thanks. Now I know.

I do. Honestly. He is my favourite non-Bill in the league. I loved his attitude from when he decided to stay on for his senior year at college & how he conducted himself in the combine interviews with the clubs. I don't think he is the best player in the NFL....not even the best QB....but he is my favourite player.

Wow....1st time for everything I suppose.

I'm confused.....who recovered the ball? Fezmid says..."but the refs had blown the whistle saying the QB was already down"....implying the ball remained DEN. ILove...says "I like the rule if only because it was a fumble and Indy deserved the ball"....implying IND got possession. It's not me here is it? One of the two is either wrong.....or written wrong. Maybe it is me?

This question comes back to the 'team' aspect of the game. As fans I think we tend to focus too much on the individual abilities of each player and not focus on how the perceptions of those abilities can radically change dependant on how the 'team' is playing. PIT is a great example. If we were not aware that they won the SB last year, you'd look at their players....their QB....their D....their OL & generally grade them for the most past fairly lowly. Those same players with pretty much the same support(minus only a few), when rated after the SB were all generally rated fairly highly. The opposite is also true. NE of 2001 was a dog of a team in regards to talent pre-Brady......once they started winning, all of a sudden they were credited with decent players(again). The Skins constantly get 'good' players yet play as an 'average'(at best) team. The Bills. The Steelers. As teams they are pretty much playing at the same level....both 2-5 with loses against bad teams. Talent-wise? Conventional wisdom puts the Steelers ahead there.....but then again if we start playing as a cohesive team, the talent we have will start to shine......just like so many others have in the past.

Why can't Big Bens reduction in performance be a possible combination of both. Why does one side always have to counter & contradict the other???? IMO Big Bens drop in performance is a combination of his pre-season injuries.....he had nearly no practice with the team at all....& the fact that his support cast has changed since last year.....Bettis provided him with a smash-mouth style run attack(which is not Parkers strong suit) which certainly helped him in the passing game last season. Perhaps add in a Superbowl hangover for some of the team & you have a generally terrible performance by him this year.