Dibs

It's sort of typical luck for us isn't it? We go up against a team that simply cannot stop the run.....& we lose our star back.

No worries, I think you actually got me mixed up with some of the previous posters on the thread & just ran with it. Thanks for the apology....I appreciate it. Mind you, I find TSW is a bit like family where you can yell & get angry at each other....calling names etc, etc, but in the end it doesn't really matter. The next day all is forgotten & it's back to normal.....at least, it is that way for me.

I find this all very interesting. 1/2 his sacks you say? At least? If it's taken as a given that our OL has been very poor.....that means we should have more sacks than most. Also, there is no doubt that JP....being young & holding onto the ball to long, or locking onto WRs is going to cause a few more. Logically speaking though, that would mean that a good QB behind a garbage OL or a garbage OL behind an OK OL will produce less sacks....let alone a good QB behind a good OL. Hmmmm......lets look at JP compared to a bunch of QBs that most would say are better than JP....and/or OLs that are better than ours. JPL.....26 sacks in 8 games Culpepper.....21 sacks in 4(42 over 8) Kitna.....26 sacks in 8 Roethlisberger.....23 sacks in 7(26 over 8) Hasselbeck.....19 sacks in 6(25 over 8) Bulger.....24 sacks in 8 Palmer.....23 sacks in 8 Vick 23.....sacks in 8 Carr.....21 sack in 8 McNabb.....20 sacks in 8 Pennington.....19 sacks in 8 I'll stop there.... Short passing game problems? Well, we have every sort of problem on the offense but..... JPLs short passing game stats...from passes thrown 1-10 yards 73-100-649-4 TDs -2 INT...95 QBR I can't see how JP has trouble in the short yardage passing game all things considered.

Yes, but the year after he left we had the #3 D in the league(down from #1). He was clearly(though still very good) on the downside of his career. He went to the Bears & had a good year followed by a season where he missed 14 games due to injury. Then he went to NE(as a last minute pickup from memory) where he missed another 6 games to injury. Ty Warren was drafted that year but was not coming on quick enough so NE picked up Big Ted. The next year he went to OAK where he anchored down the 30th ranked D in the league followed the next year with the 27th ranked D. It's sad when players who have been good for us are let go.....but some times it ends up being the right decision....i.e. Eric Moulds.....Bruce Smith....etc, etc.

.....and my initial response was to.......wait for it......here it comes...... "Ive searched for a while now and I cant find one site that will say Dunn's weight in college was below 180." So please....pretty please with a cherry on top.....explain why my reasonable, rational, in-offensive, conversation driven rather than argument drive response to that statement deserve to get your attitude today? Are you drunk or something? Had a hard night? Re-read my 1st post(#12). Then read the following 'discargument' we've had..... and apologize for being a prat.

Ted Washington & Sam Adams are certainly not examples of players who have gone "to another team and rip it up".....and your guess on Brown....doing OK after 11 games lost due to injury in two years is not exactly "ripping it up" either. I'm not defending TD here in any way but....those players just do not fit the criteria stated.

I haven't made any judgemnet on Wolfe one way or the other what so ever. Are you telling me that it isn't simply "logical" that since virtually all players put on a some weight(apart from the fatties) within their first 2 years in the NFL that Dunn who is now listed at 180lbs would not have had a lighter playing weight in college?.....because that was basically all I said..........& I had some documented evidence to back it up. You should read what people say rather than assume what might(or might not) be implied.....and even if I did have an implication in what I said about Wolfe(which I didn't), it would not change the irrefutable logic about the playing weights of Dunn.

Oh come on..... it is PFW preview 98.....one of the 'good' mags of it's day(not so good now since Bauchbaum died). You know as well as I do that height discrepancies occur all the time in the NFL...as does weight. The 5/8th gets rounded up.....or down depending on who is reporting. I mentioned the height discrepancy because this implies he is probably on low side of 5'9" not the high side. To try & make an argument about a magazine 'reliability' based on that is simply ludicrous. I would bet that you also a certainly aware of the concept that players tend to put on a little bit extra muscle in the first few years of becoming an NFL pro......therefore....since Dunn is clearly listed at 180lbs now it is simple logic to assume he was not only lighter in his second NFL season but also even lighter in his college career.

Since the QBR is a figure based on the overall 'numbers' of a QB.....Brady 83.5 QBR Hasselbeck 82.8 QBR Pennington 82.3 QBR Rex Grossman 81.1 QBR Delhomme 80.3 QBR (18th)JPL 80.2 QBR Favre 78.8 QBR McNair 73.8 QBR Johnson 73.1 QBR Plummer 72.5 QBR BIG BEN 72.2 QBR and just because..... Leinart 66.9 QBR Gradkowski 73.7 QBR Smith 79.7 QBR His 'numbers' are actually OK.....considering everything, if you added just 3 40 yard TD passes(which should come with better experience/OL/etc) & JPs 'numbers' would be up there inside the top 10. I'm not saying the 'numbers' make him good(they are just numbers) but if you bring up a factor......make sure you are right or prepare to be proven wrong.

I like it!!!!

I've just looked in a mag from 1998(after 1 full NFL season) & it has him listed at 178lbs. Since all the sites list him at 180lbs now it would be safe to assume that his college weight was less than 178. Interestingly the mag has his height at 5'8" not the 5'9" he is listed at now.

Thanks for adding to the conversation.....what would we do without you?

I wasn't being sarcastic at all.....thanks for the info. If I now highlight the 'successes' on the list.....we find that out of the 12 BIG school QBs drafted in the top 5 in the years 1987-2003, 6 succeeded...or 50%. Out of the 5 non-BIG school QBs only 1 succeeded....or 20%. I think this information backs up your theory quite soundly that QBs drafted high from BIG schools have a better chance of succeeding in the NFL than non-BiG schools. If you can be bothered.....could you(or anyone) give me a list of the BIG schools.....since I'm now adopting your theory I'd like know more about it. Thanks. Vinny Testaverde Univ. of Miami B Troy Aikman UCLA B Jeff George Univ. Illinois B Drew Bledsoe Washington State B Peyton Manning Univ of Tenneessee B Tim Couch Univ of Kentucky Michael Vick Virginia Tech B David Carr Fresno State Carson Palmer USC B Rick Mirer Notre Dame B Heath Shuler Tennessee B Steve McNair Alcorn State Kerry Collins Penn State B Ryan Leaf Washington State B Donovan McNabb Syracuse B Akili Smith Oregon 1 year College Exp Joey Harrington Oregon

Ah....well there is my problem. Being from Australia I have no idea about which are the BIG schools etc. I guess I could have taken more interest in the college game but up until now could not see the point(clever me). Maybe you(or anyone) could help me here.....If I put a list of players names below could you(or someone) respond with whether they are from a BIG school(naming school) or not? Vinny Testaverde Troy Aikman Jeff George Drew Bledsoe Peyton Manning Tim Couch Michael Vick David Carr Carson Palmer Rick Mirer Heath Shuler Steve McNair Kerry Collins Ryan Leaf Donovan McNabb Akili Smith Joey Harrington I know it's a bit of effort.....but it will help you(assumingly) prove your point. That would be super.

Actually....now you mention it I do recall(& I'm probablygetting it all wrong...strictly from memory) back in the year before the Colts got Manning they were the worst team in the league & came up against the Packers(superbowl defending?....I can't be bothered to check)....the Colts got their only(?) win of the season. As I said, I bet I got all the details wrong apart from the crappy Colts beat a top team. Fingers crossed. GO BILLS!!!

What is(& was re: Miami) your reasoning.....or is it just gut?

Very true....& I plan....when I have time....to look at all possitions similarly(or a bit different depending on how I feel at the time). My guess would be(& I figure from all your past posts about the mental side being so important to QBs that you'll agree), that the success rates for most other possitions will be probably higher than that of QBs.

I'm sort of hoping that Vick gets injured for a 5-6 week stint so that we can see Schaub after defensive coordinators have gotten to see him. You people amaze me how you can see 1 good outing from a guy & are happy to lock the future into him. Doesn't anybody remember how good RJ looked at JAX in his 1 start?....good enough to trade a top 10 pick for. Scott Mitchell looked good for half a season with MIA & bombed out in DET.....but no, not with Schaub....we've seen him play one good game....he must be a top QB.

I totally agree, however I've changed my opinion over the last year on how you get your HOF style QB. If you look at the HOF style QBs in the league at the moments you have....& this is opinion based obviously....I'm ignoring the young guys like Brees & Palmer since they show potential but...... Brady, Favre, Manning, McNabb. Any others? Brady & Favre were 6th & 2nd rounders respectively while Manning & McNabb were both top 3. Just on a quick scan of names etc, it is apparent that virtually all the HOF style OTs were drafted in the first round whereas only half of the HOF style QBs were drafted there(give or take). Your dice analogy works fine since I have not looked at OL draftees long term to know any different....what I do know is that if 1st round QBs were a roll of your hypothetical dice, they hit sixes a lot less than most expect. I feel like I'm pimping this link since I've done it multiple times recently but.....well, I did the research & it is quite enlightening. Here is a link to the success rates of QBs over 17 years. LINK Basically #1 overall is a good(?) 56% chance of success. #2-5 are 38% the rest of the first round is 15% Honestly, I have gone right off drafting a QB in the first round unless he is going to be one of the 'can't miss' types that could go at #1.....and even then it becomes a flip of a coin for him to succeed.

You'd think so wouldn't you? Unfortunately the facts just don't bare out that opinion. Here is a link to the success percentages for QBs.....by your statement of talent expectation I think you will be surprised. LINK

Great post. Thankyou.

36...rest of the year....at least. And regardless, we should draft a QB in the later rounds anyway(every second year at least).....we just don't draft enough QBs. Do people realize that the Patriots have drafted 3 QBs since Brady won his 1st superbowl....2002 in the 4th, 2003 int he 6th & 2005 in the 7th. We have drafted 3 in the last 20 years....1992 in the 12th, 1995 in the 2nd & 2004 in the 1st. IMO that is the reason we have not had a QB since Kelly & the reason we need JP to succeed since we have realistically nobody of any potential waiting in the wings.

Way to knit-pick....my point was obviously that INDY is not exactly a good defensive team & the fact that they just killed Brady does not mean that that is how we should assume they will play....Carr & Brunell are not stars...Plummer has shiit stats & Eli...is performing better than I realized. .....but it still doesn't change the point being made. Actually I did know that their pass defence is ranked 3rd in the league but.....& I find this very telling about their D as a whole.... They have had 225 passing attempts made against them & 252 rushing attempts. Considering they have won all 8 games & I agree with your concept of 'once teams are behind they pass more'.....it shows perhaps just how deficient against the run they are. IMO, if we stick to a solid game plan of run, run, run, run, pass, run, run, run, run...and run....we can probably expect.....*sigh*....another come from behind victory for Manning. Just kidding. GO BILLS!!!

"Indy made Brady look like a rookie." Everything changes week to week.... Indy made Carr look like a star....26-22-219-3 TDs-0 INTs...146.2 QBR ....made Brunell look like a star....37-27-226-2 TDs-0 INTs...106.4 QBR ....and made Eli & Plummer look pretty good. It's definitely not the Colts D that is the thing to worry about.....in fact, the Colts D might be just what the doctor ordered for our anemic offence..... IND 32nd against the run in both YPG(165.4) & YPC(5.3). JP can try to impersonate Roethilberger from last year instead of imitating the Roethlisberger of this year.

You remind me(yet again) that I want to study past drafts relating OL to SB wins but..... There is no way I'd use 2005 picks as examples here(waaaay too early)...probably wouldn't be using 2004 either. I'd definitely go back at least another 5 years....& not that it makes any difference, I'd use top 5 since that seems to be a standard. QBs 1996: none 1997: none 1998: Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf 1999: Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith 2000: none 2001: Michael Vick 2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington 2003: Carson Palmer OL 1996: Jonathan Ogden 1997: Orlando Pace 1998: none 1999: none 2000: Chris Samuels 2001: Leonard Davis 2002: Mike Williams 2003: none Looks a little tighter when you compare over a decent period of time. 4 in 9 QBs(44%)....3 in 5 OL(60%).....not that I disagree that there is waaay too many misses for the supposed 'sure thing' of a top 5 pick. Interestingly.....There are two superbowl winners amongst the OL picks.....and 1 superbowl loser amongst the QB picks....& the QBs picked outnumber the OLs picked 9 to 5. Hmmmm....I really want to study those stats.