Dibs

With drafting players, it's not usually how good they can become.......it's the percentage chance that they become good. About 50% of all 1st round RBs do not pan out for the team that drafts them. I had a quick look at 2nd & 3rd round RBs & that number would be reduced to about 25% at best. The 2nd/3rd rounders that succeed....Portis, Gore, etc......produce at a similar level(usually) to the successes from the 1st round. It's just that the chance of any given 2nd or 3rd round RB succeeding is much less than 1st round RBs. This rule applies to virtually all positions. People tend to think...... "The higher the pick, the bigger the star!" For the most of it, that is not true. It should be...... "The higher the pick, the bigger the chance of getting a star." Note:- The only position that I've found it extaordianrily unlikely to get a star not drafted in the top 10 of the draft is OT. This is why Peters is such a find.

For all we know we are not in need of starters at as many positions as appears. At DT we have to assume that our 1st round pick from last year will be a starter. DJ may well feel that Crowell is an upgrade at MLB & that Ellison can start OLB. In the cover 2, they may feel that the amount of talent(potential) we have....along with a 2nd/3rd rounder will do nicely. RB.....1st round?.....if the OL performs as is hoped, ATrain may well be all that is required to get the job done. My point simply is that only the coaches & management know if they believe we are in need of starters(in all those positions). It seems fairly obvious that OBD considers they have at least 1 more starter than the average fan does.

I know at this point everything is speculative etc.......but........most analysis I read has Willis going well after we pick(around 20). There seems to be a common view here that he is a definite top 10 prospect.

No I wasn't. I was pointing out that the 'stud' picks were all gone. In your list, you not only list stud picks(Peterson, Hall) but you also list picks that would be the equivalent of Whitner(Willis, Ginn). Your list implies that when we selected Whitner there were some top 7 talent left and he was projected well below the mid tier(which, yes a few had him lower, but most, ESPNs big board included, had him around 20).....neither of which was the case. I don't know if you meant to imply this but the list you put forward certainly does. As I said, a more appropriate list to emulate the 'pulling a Whitner' might be selecting Willis(or maybe Timmons) with Branch, Lynch & Ginn still on the board.

Houston signed Green to a 4 year, $23mil contract. $6.5mil guaranteed. That's nearly $6mil a year. I would think it unlikely(not impossible) that they draft a RB at the #8 spot when they have committed so much money to the position & have so many other areas of need. I know we won't end up with Peterson.......but I'm still hoping.

That really isn't a good comparison of last years 'pulling a Donte Whitner'. Which top flight players were left on your draft board when we selected Whitner? N'Gata, Justice & Bunkley were the only players I recall people getting hot & bothered about. Considering that Justice dropped to the second, Bunkley dropped & didn't perform & N'Gata simply was not a fit for the defensive system, your comparison is implying a tonne of things that it shouldn't. What about Johnson, Thomas, Russell, Adams, Quinn, Landry, Anderson, Brown, Carriker, Bowe, Timmons, Houston, Moss, Jarrett, Olsen, Smith, Grubbs......etc, etc, etc. Actually, I don't understand what it was you were implying by 'pull a Donte Whitner' on us. Whitner filled a big need & there was no 'sure things' left on the board. Perhaps 'pulling a Whitner' this year will be to draft Willis at the #12 spot when Branch was still available. Willis looks like he will go mid 20s at this point & the questions regarding Branch are numerous(including scheme fitting).

Very punny. I get the impression that those that responded to you didn't watch the video.

Excuse my ignorance but.....what's an LSI?

Does It Better Sexually Just kidding......Dibs comes from.....ahem.....yes...OK, it does come from that book but it was more that I was studying it at the time & played a lot of video games. I needed initials to type in when I got(continually) high scores & since I don't have a middle name I adopted Dibs(Dib)......which has been my call-sign ever since.

On second thoughts(& a quick look) you're probably right.....not that we've drafted better than most(we certainly haven't) but most seem to be within the same range of hit/miss to us. It's only the teams that consistently hit that have been able to perform consistently above the average.....& the average is a LOT of teams. Obviously I am still looking pre 2004.....post 2004 we have been exceedingly above average(fingers crossed those young players....JPL, Evans, Whitner keep on improving). Another 'hit' in the 1st round this year & it bodes very well for the future of the Bills.......or am I just being a wide-eyed optimist?

I'd think he'd mean pre 2004 wouldn't you? McGahee, (Bledsoe), Williams, Clements, Flowers, Winfield, (RJ), Smith. I don't advocate using this as a reason to get Turner(silly idea if you ask me), but compare 1997-2003 to most teams & you'll see one of the true reasons why we have languished as a team for so long. Compare to Colts.....Clark, Freeney, Wayne, Morris, Edge, Manning, Glenn.

He's only been around 3 professional teams.......one of the best......hmmmm, what's he really saying? Just kidding, the 'high character' type football team was one of the things that attracted me to the Bills in the first place.....I'm pleased it is back so I can once again have extra pride in the team & players I support.

Why did the Texans cut him anyway?

I'd think you'd have to count Walker as a non ? at either RG or RT. At 5 mil a year he will be expected to hold down one of those possitions....even if we are unsure which it will be at this point. I'd put us at 7 ?s......counting Spikes as a ?, but not Walker.....nor the WR2 position since the Price/Reed combo is set until management say otherwise. (I figure if Shelton was a non ? at FB last year, the WR2 spot should be a non ?)

Yep.

Hey Yasin.....I'm a bit of a Math guy. Did you realize that 1 in 5(rounded) of your posts is a New Topic? That's amazing.

AAARRRGGHHHH How about probably, possibly, potentially, could well have, IMO would have......anything but definitely.

71% scored higher (more nerdy), 1% scored the same, and 28% scored lower (less nerdy). This is a load of bollocks. 71% are more nerdy than me????? I'm not Mr. Nerd.....but compared to your average Joe I'm living in Nerd City. I guess that since it will mainly be computer nerd types that come across & fill this out that there will be a high level of nerdiness to compete with.

For the most, it was soooooo far off who I am that I'm not impressed at all with this sophisticated scientific assessment.

You can't say that. Just because you are confident in a prediction does not mean that your prediction is a definitive fact. I've got high hopes for Youboty too.....as I'm sure does Marv & DJ.....but to not only assume he would have continued to shine & improve had he stayed in college....but will perform like a 1st rounder(which is 50% bust anyway).....is overstepping the bounds of reasonable assessment. I'd be extremely surprised if Marv. & Co. hang our CB future on an untested Youboty without having a plan B.

Is this a rhetorical question?

& this was the only point that I think people have been saying to you........that, yes he sure does look special in the highlight footage.....but there are negatives that are not shown in the highlight footage. There is really no need to take offense so easily. Your first post says "maybe I'm high" implying that you know he can't be as good as he seems......when people have said in this thread that perhaps he isn't.....you have gotten all huffy.

ThreeBillsDrive...I've looked through your past posts to see if your a troll & you obviously aren't. What's up with today then? All the Dean pointed out was that your choice of words....."hell".....was not really a correct assessment of the situation. If you can't handle somebody disagreeing with your assessments of things......don't post.

Thanks for the observations John......good food for thought.