Dibs

I don't know about a steal but he has certainly shown himself to be worthy of the #8 selection.... I figure the best way to see if this is the case is to look at his draft peers throughout a reasonable amount of time. I have selected a 10 year span of picks 6-10(the immediate 2 selections around the #8 pick). I chose years 1989-1998 as these players have pretty much had full(or close) careers......and it is as close to 2006 as allows. Bolded = Probowl achieved within first 3 seasons Red = Bust(only 4 productive seasons as starter or less.....for any team) Brackets = (Number of starts in first 2 seasons)(number of probowls).....BTW, DW had 29 starts in his first 2 seasons. RESULTS:- Of these 50 players drafted:- 18 were total busts….36% 7 made the probowl within their first 3 years in the league….14% (FWIW, 11 out of the 35 players(31%) from drafts 1999-2005 made the probowl within their first 3 years in the league. Total would be 18 of 85 players….21%) 22 overall had a probowl season in their career….44% 13 had multiple probowl seasons in their careers….26% 19 had 28 or more starts within their first 2 seasons….38% DW is certainly above the curve at this point in his career. Broderick Thomas(15) Tim Worley(22) Burt Grossman(31) Sammie Smith(28) Eric Hill(30) Mark Carrier(32)(3) Andre Ware(1) Chris Singleton(15) Richmond Webb(30)(7) Ray Agnew(19) Eric Swann(14)(2) Charles McRae(20) Antone Davis(30) Stanley Richard(28) Herman Moore(12)(4) David Klingler(17) Troy Vincent(27)(5) Bob Whitfield(16)(1) Tommy Vardell(22) Ray Roberts(32) Eric Curry(24) Curtis Conway(19) Willie Roaf(32)(11) Lincoln Kennedy(19)(3) Jerome Bettis(28)(6) Trent Dilfer(18)(1) Bryant Young(28)(4) Sam Adams(12)(3) Antonio Langham(32) Jamir Miller(9)(1) Kevin Carter(32)(2) Mike Mamula(29) Joey Galloway(32) Kyle Brady(27) J.J. Stokes(8) Lawrence Phillips(20) Terry Glenn(24)(1) Tim Biakabutuka(6) Rickey Dudley(31) Willie Anderson(26)(4) Walter Jones(28)(8) Ike Hilliard(18) James Farrior(17)(1) Tom Knight(19) Chris Naeole(16) Grant Wistrom(16) Kyle Turley(31)(1) Greg Ellis(29)(1) Fred Taylor(21)(1) Duane Starks(14)

I agree with the talent side of things.....can't see him becoming a Bill though, the guy has some serious baggage.

.....and having invisibility switched on they need 3 bright lights showing their location so that they don't bump into each other.....I get it

The rest of the league....players....coaches....analysts....all view him as a very good(though not elite) safety.....yet you persist in saying he is not. Why is it that you believe with such conviction that he is a below average safety? You can't be just basing things on stats(as we all know that they don't always reflect the true abilities of a player). You seem to want him to be sub-par for some reason......I don't understand it.

Traditionally is the key word here. Many fans have not caught up with the concept that Safety has become a very important and sought after position......therefore they are being drafted higher than they used to be......and are often drafted inside the top 10. Over the last 7 drafts, the top 10 picks breaks down like this..... QB 11 WR 10 OT 9 DE 9 DT 7 S 6 RB 6 CB 6 LB 4 TE 2

What's a 'business moron'? Is that some kind of inept businessman? .....and what's Steely Dan doing with one?

The exchange rate has recently improved massively for coming to Australia from the US......that would help a lot. I've studied abroad.....but I don't think that counts

That one is ridiculous too.....triangle ship???? Only if it was transparent/translucent.

How could they tell? .......and it must have either vanished.....or.....forget about it.

I understand that nature abhors that sort of thing.

Was it before my time?

On Bruschi or Brady?

Great post It's been a long time coming......and well worth you coming out of the lurker closet to make special note of.

Agreed......we seem to be on different pages in regards to the definition of 'great'. I am talking about(as was Bill from NYC)....and I don't know how to word this apart from.....'great' LTs.....HOF level LTs......those that consistently get to the probowl nearly every season they play.....dominate throughout their careers.....leaders of their positions. You pretty much do have to draft a LT in the top 8 to get a truly great one. Sure, you can get very good ones elsewhere.....but if you want a 'great' one.....and many believe they are well worth having....you have to look inside the top 8 of the draft. Your list of 8......plus my HOFer level LTs mentioned earlier. (draft position first in brackets)......(probowl appearances in brackets after)....bold are the greats(potential great) (1)Orlando Pace(7) - 7 probowls in 11 seasons (2)Tony Boselli(5) - 5 probowls in 7 seasons(with his last season being ended at week 3 with injury) (3)Joe Thomas(1) - 1 probowl in 1 season.....looks like another potential HOFer caliber LT selected in the top 8 (3)Chris Samuels(5) - 5 probowls in 8 seasons (4)Jonathan Ogden(11) - 11 PBs in 12 seasons (6)Walter Jones(8) - 8 PBs in 11 seasons (8)Willie Roaf(11) - 8 PBs in 13 seasons (11)Tra Thomas(3) - 3 PBs in 10 seasons.....good but not great. (13)Jammal Brown(1) - 1 PB in 3 seasons.....very good obviously.....great? (41)Michael Roos(0) - 3 seasons....certainly not great (44)Chad Clifton(1) - 1 PB in 8 seasons.....certainly not great. (50)Marcus McNeil(2) - 2 probowls in 2 seasons.....Only real potential to break the top 8 rule(apart from Peters but....homer glasses and all ). (160)David Diehl(0) - 5 seasons.....certainly not great (-)Jason Peters(1) - Might be a variant to the top 8 rule.....our opinion on this may well be tinted due to being fans. Marcus McNeil(and Peters if we're lucky) is the only player that looks like he might break the top 8 rule. The other guys are good/very good.

okeydokey then

It never stopped Aikman getting in.

I guess only scoring 2 TDs in 3 quarters means it was the right call then.

You(like many others) seem to irrationally expect too much from the #8 pick in the draft. If he isn't a game-changing-pro-bowler by his 3rd season then he must be a bust. DW is already well ahead of the curve in terms of others drafted in a similar area and is generally considered to be a top 15 safety(out of all safeties). I understand rose coloured glasses Bills fans rating him above what he has produced....that seems like a natural thing to do.....I don't understand Bills fans who not only rate him lower than he is universally considered to be but also erroneously imply that he is not living up to a #8 selection.

At which point did I imply/suggest/state this? I even said....."Yes it does need to be justified on its own terms......" ....and my point is(and often is).....that just because we ourselves might be convinced of a certain players ability, that does not mean it is correct.....it does not mean it was readily apparent at the time of the draft(hindsight).....and it does not mean that the numerous other factors involved in drafting players for a team/system are to be ignored. I mainly agree with this. I don't see how choosing a 'safe pick' in the situation the Bills were in can be considered a bad decision. It has merits(& flaws) just as any choice.....and as it turns out, the DW pick was successful. The only part of this that I vary from you is that position actually was important. The T2 D relies more on its Safeties.....less on its CBs. Also needs selective type of DTs(which I'll cover below) I disagree with this. Going into 2006 we did not have one starting caliber nor backup caliber DT. Tripplett was brought in to be one of the starters.....for the time, he was given quite a large contract. Obviously he did not pan out(mistake). The movements on draft day re: McCargo showed how....ahem....desperate they were to get the prototype T2 DT(McCargo was supposed to become this). They also drafted Williams. Obviously they could not 'build' the DT unit in one season. As Tripplett & McCargo were not panning out......they again tried to obtain the DTs needed, this time with Johnson & Stroud. I don't see how you can view it as a course correction....the first attempt to do the job failed......so they tried again(Johnson=Tripplett......Stroud=McCargo).

I get it that you become annoyed at the posters trying to portray DW as a legit superstar(which he clearly isn't at this point in his career). I don't get why in retaliation to the concept you feel the necessity to make out that he is not a very good player(which he clearly is at this point in his career).

N'Gata was also known to lack motivation & take plays off......that didn't pan to the NFL(as far as I'm aware). To my knowledge the T2 D requires a certain type of DT. You may be correct & N'Gata might indeed have the extraordinary ability of being such a big man....and being able to be quick enough off the snap & penetrate to the levels required by the T2.....but maybe not. In the position the Bills were in back in 2006(needing nearly an entire new team of starters).....do you think that it would have been in any way wise to select a player at the #8 spot who had not only the 'normal' chance of busting out.....but might not have ever been able to play effectively in the system? Re: the Whitner pick:- Yes it does need to be justified on its own terms......and any careful analysis of players picked around the #8 selection shows that it already has been justified. The Whitner pick is well above the curve as he not only didn't bust out(high percent do this)......but is generally considered at least a good starter. Add on his intangibles and there really is no question. Could the Bills have done better? Of course....but that can be said for virtually every draft selection ever made.

*Bills comment wasn't on the bust rate percentage.....it was on the concept that you don't see that high caliber LT develop in the NFL unless they have a top 8 pedigree(I change to top 8 since it fits better than top 10).* It has only been in very recent years that the bust rate for highly drafted OTs has increased.......here is the list..... Every OT drafted inside the Top 8...1993-2007(draft position first in brackets)......(probowl appearances in brackets after) (8)Willie Roaf(11) (2)Tony Boselli(5) (4)Jonathan Ogden(11) (1)Orlando Pace(7) (6)Walter Jones(8) (7)Kyle Turley(1) (3)Chris Samuels(5) (2)Leonard Davis(1) (4)Mike Williams (7)Bryant McKinnie (8)Jordan Gross (2)Robert Gallery (4)D'Brickashaw Ferguson (3)Joe Thomas(1) (5)Levi Brown I think perhaps you've misunderstood the benchmark that was being put forward.......that being GREAT LTs. In recent times there has been IMO only 5 great LTs(Jonathan Ogden, Orlando Pace, Tony Boselli, Walter Jones, Willie Roaf).....maybe 6 if you include Samuels as well. All 6 were drafted within the top 8. The point being that if you want a superstar LT you (pretty much) need to draft an LT inside the top 8. This does not correlate the same to any other position(that I can see.....and I've done a lot of looking). Why do you want a superstar LT? Because they help teams win games & go far in the playoffs. Ignoring Boselli(shortened career).....and Samuels(I'm not convinced that he is in the same class).... If you look at the 4 dominating LTs in recent times.... Jonathan Ogden Orlando Pace Walter Jones Willie Roaf .....2 have got SB rings.....1 helped get their team to a SB.....and 1 didn't get there. That's a very solid result.

There could be a truth to what you are saying though the same logic should apply to all other positions chosen in that area of the draft(20+) but the bust rate for them is just as high. Another thought.....OGs chosen in the 1st round might still be considered a 'luxury' pick, one that is only made(by most teams) when they have filled the rest of their roster(though I think this is changing....and rightly so). This still doesn't explain fully why the bust rate is sooooo low though. I tend to think that perhaps OGs talent can be better evaluated coming out of College than most(if not all) other positions.

I think they would have......but not traded up for McCargo(obviously). My bet is we may well have ended up with Bunkley, as apart from McCargo he was the only other highly rated penetrating DT in the draft. Who knows what would of happened? I know there would have been countless(literally) different scenarios that could have occurred. Maybe we should try and figure out each possible scenario of what could have happened......would that be fun?