Dibs

I agree with most of that......it's true. Your lottery analogy is not good though. Firstly, there is no correct strategy on draft day. A trade up or down, standing pat, reaching for position of need, taking best available player.......non of these are the right nor wrong things to do. Secondly, you assume certain motivations while ignoring others. I viewed it that there were 2 prime factors in the Whitner pick. He was one of the most NFL ready players in the draft......and he was supposedly one of the closest 'won't bust' players in the draft. IMO the FO......looking at the lack of quality players on the roster.....and looking at the copious number of 1st round busts we'd had the past 8 years.....they wanted a pick that would not be waisted. To my mind it was less the 'being greedy' aspect as you put it and more the 'play it safe' aspect. In the end I find myself baffled at the concept that so many fans remain so unhappy with a draft pick that panned out very well & contributes greatly to the team. "But it could have been better!" "So what?"

I don't think there has been many(any?) people who have said that Evans is a better WR than Smith.

If you say so.....many experts/analysts/Good NFL teams disagree though. And as I've shown earlier in this thread.....I'm not one of them. Since we are(yet again) talking about the 2006 draft, the only viable pass rusher was #20 Tamba Hali. The main error IMO by our FO(as I've said) was to lock up our DEs to big money long term contracts. N'Gata was not an option. Apart from certain issues about him listed pre-draft which might well have kept us away from him, we had committed to the T2 D which N'Gata did not look like a good fit in. There are great arguments that going with the T2 was a big mistake but once the decision was made, it therefore becomes a non-mistake to ignore N'gata. Bunkley is a different issue. It took him a while to develop.....but he certainly would have fitted the system. In the end I'd rather Stroud over Bunkley at this point.

How do you figure that? I was arguing against the comment that the Whitner situation dumped us in the toilet. I pointed out that we got a good player......and there is no reason to expect a 2nd round pick would develop into a good player, in fact odds are on that they bust......therefore.....the DW drafting was not disastrous for the team at all. FO ability is a different argument......as is the argument that a well run(coached & coordinated) team can produce better players from training & situation. Bad strategy? Only in hindsight. If we had taken the trade & picked 2 busts......and every player we could have gotten in not doing a trade turned out a solid player then we'd be saying it was a bad move to do the trade. Hindsight is always 20/20.

I agree(to the first part). We desperately need a pass rush(no need for reasons as we both know them ). To the second part.....I think you are way of the mark. One draft selection which turned into a good player could never be that big a cause for 'flushing down the toilet'. Consider that the 2nd round pick most likely would have busted out(based upon odds). Add which player would we have drafted in said trade that would have garnered us a pass rush?(N'Gata was not an option due to defensive scheme implemented).....plus we would have needed a player to replace DW. Overall, the non-trading down issue would not have elevated us out of the toilet(most likely) & quite possibly seen us with fewer good players for the trade. Having McCargo totally bust out was by far the biggest factor to non-improvement than any other draft day move made in the last 3 years. IMO the biggest mistake(apart from coaches & coordinators) was to lock ourselves into our DEs for multi-year big dollar contracts. When they underperformed(after contract signing) due to either skill/injury, we could not realistically consider looking for replacement(via FA) due to the excessive dollars, which has left us in the hole on D that we are in.

Modern day drafting seems to disagree a bit here as safety is a regular 5-10 selection these days. Also, there has to be a lineman available who you like in order to draft one there.

I look at things similarly.....but worse. It's important to differentiate IMO how the QB performed for the drafting team. Dilfer for instance showed nothing at TB so therefore is considered a bust for the purposes of the team drafting him. Basically there is no benefit to draft a player who does not perform & is let go & then performs at a high level elsewhere later in his career(not that Dilfer performed at a high level ). Also.....players who only put things together for one or two seasons(ala Leftwich, Grossman) should also IMO not be considered to be draft day successes. Here is my look at QBs drafted in the 1st round from 1987-2003. There is only a 27% success rate. If you take away the #1 pick in the draft.....the success rate drops to 18% If you take away picks #1-#5.....the success rate drops to 10% Interestingly the success rate for rounds 2&3 is 20% #1s…..5 hits out of 9….56% #1 Vinny Testaverde #1 Troy Aikman #1 Jeff George #1 Drew Bledsoe #1 Peyton Manning #1 Tim Couch #1 Michael Vick #1 David Carr #1 Carson Palmer TOP 5…..8 hits out of 17….47% #2 Rick Mirer #3 Heath Shuler #3 Steve McNair #5 Kerry Collins #2 Ryan Leaf #2 Donovan McNabb #3 Akili Smith #3 Joey Harrington TOP 10…..8 hits out of 22….36% #6 Kelly Stouffer #7 Andre Ware #6 David Klingler #6 Trent Dilfer #7 Byron Leftwich TOP 20…..10 hits out of 28….36% #13 Chris Miller #16 Dan McGuire #11 Daunte Culpepper #12 Cade McNown #18 Chad Pennington #19 Kyle Boller FIRST ROUND…..10 hits out of 37….27% #26 Jim Harbaugh #? Steve Walsh #? Timm Rosenbach #24 Todd Marinovich #25 Tommy Maddox #? Dave Brown #26 Jim Druckenmiller #32 Patrick Ramsey #22 Rex Grossman

Sorry about my previous post Dawgg......I thought you were saying(as the thread implied) that DW should be cut(because he isn't a solid starter). You seem to expect too much from your draft selections. Sure, we would all like impact play-makers......but the reality is that half the players drafted never become decent starters....let alone good ones.....let alone play-makers. When you end up with one that is a very solid starter(with great intangibles), that result is ahead of the curve & is not a bad result.

Sorry Dawgg, I'm not going to take your word on how minimal DWs field contributions are. Opinion is definitely divided on the issue though. It seems that those that can't get past their annoyance at drafting him at #8 believe he is a rubbish player(and now actually want to see us cut him)......the rest of the universe believe he is minimally a good starter.

That's a cute response.........but you are implying that the D has done a bad job overall. They haven't. To ignore other factors such as injuries & Offensive production is not a good way of assessing the defensive unit.....but even if you were to do that they have shown themselves to be a decent unit. YPG 11th PPG 11th 3rd down % 9th Passing YPG 12th Passing YPA 14th QBR 19th Rushing YPG 19th Rushing YPA 17th Turnovers 19th It's only in sacks(25th) that we have produced at a very low level.......and when you consider that sacks directly effect the other areas of the game......and that our best pass rusher has been injured all season......the D has done a fine job. If we can get a pass rush(DE & LB) this D could be very good IMO.

Who cares......let's just get rid of them so we can become a better team.

No we aren't. We have lightweight players across the board......we run a T2 D(typical). The complaint with this D(& the T2 in general) has resoundingly been it is ill suited to stopping the run. FWIW, we are 9th in the league at 3rd down stops with 35.9% completed........that is pretty good.....considering there is minimal pass rush.

By understanding that a lack of pass rush leads to a lack of big plays. Considering the lack of pass rush, this D has done a very good job.

I don't really see the importance to all of this. The Bills(RW) make enough money to justify an extra 4mil a year on a HC as it is.

Maybe he is trying to strengthen his arm by pulling his groin.

What part of "Keep in mind that in no way am I saying that DJ has done a good job as a HC" did you not understand?

Some people forget that JPL had a fairly good statistical year in 2006......just as TE is having a fairly good statistical year this year. Your intimation that other factors(play calling, WRs, OL, coaching, running game, defense) effected the QBs is most certainly IMO important in trying to assess them. I personally can't judge their play as I have only had limited access to game footage. I tend to think that JPL may develop into an adequate NFL starter given the right system, experience & coaching. I'm doubtful at this stage due to his proclivity for sacks......but you never know. I did get to see TE play the other Monday night......that was a disgusting performance. I am veering however towards him becoming a good starter. This is partly based on being a fan holding onto hope......but also based upon the great reviews & comments he received through last year & early this year. He is a smart QB, I see no reason that he cannot overcome his....ahem....check down issues & develop as a QB.

All this from my response to.... All I was after was some perspective from the 'sky is falling' crowd. Let's say we do end up 6-10 or 7-9. Are the Bills a better team than the one that went 5-11? Hell Yes! Better at DT, MLB, OLB, SS, LCB, LT, LG, RG, RT, RB, WR1.....with still a hope at QB....and only worse at RCB(unless McKelvin shows himself a star). Anyone who realistically looks at the team from 2005 & the team from 2008 & thinks we have less talent is not looking at things clearly IMO. *Keep in mind that in no way am I saying that DJ has done a good job as a HC......I've simply been pointing out that a comment of "He's destroyed this team" is not correct.*

Well I guess I'd be calling you an idiot & giving you a good laugh. Over the first 11 games in both their 1st full seasons.....not counting ARI game for TE..... The ONLY area where JPL has shown he was better than TE was INTs. For you to try to argue that TE has shown that he is much worse than JPL is beyond hilarious.....it's ludicrous. Wins JPL 5 TE 6 QBR JPL 84.1 TE 84.9 YPA JPL 6.92 TE 7.35 Completion % JPL 63.8 TE 65.7 YPG JPL 182.5 TE 214.6 TDs JPL 10 TE 10 INTs JPL 8 TE 10 Fumbles lost JPL 5 TE 4 Sacks JPL 32 TE 20 Sack percentage JPL 9.9% TE 5.9% Rushing JPL 28-94-3.4ave 1TD TE 30-87-2.9ave 3TDs

Read through the progression of discussion & you'll understand the context of The Big Cats statement......or don't....I don't care. Keep chucking out the , they're always good for a laugh.

Yeah......but 5-11 in 2005. In 2004 we had Pat Williams, a healthy TKO, a productive Sam Adams & Eric Moulds, Bledsoe at QB(which was better than 2005 Holcombe/JPL).....etc, etc, etc. DJ inherited the 2005 Bills team not the 2004 Bills team.

Not IMO......but we'd have to suffer the whole "We could have traded down & still got him" brigade if we did take him at #11.

Unless my brain isn't working.......2005 we went 5-11. 2006 DJ became HC. Am I recalling incorrectly here?

I'm not defending DJ here but some perspective would be good. He inherited a 5-11 team which in 3 off-seasons has had 17 of the 22 starting players replaced. Like it or not, we have a better team than before he took over.

Good question.....out of the last 10 1st round picks for each team it works out that 4 teams(Raiders, Chargers, Giants & Redskins) have drafted more....with another 3 teams(Cowboys, Panthers & Titans) drafting the same number. 8 wins or more this season in bold 4 wins or less this season in red Looks to me that 1st round DB selection does not correlate to the win/loss of a team. Perhaps building a strong team has a lot more complexities than simple 1st round draft picks positions. 5DBs Raiders 4DBs Chargers Giants Redskins 3DBs Bills Cowboys Panthers Titans 2DBs Bengals Broncos Cardinals Dolphins Jaguars Packers Rams Seahawks 1DB 49ers Bucs Colts Eagles Falcons Jets Patriots Ravens Steelers Texans 0DBs Bears Browns Chiefs Lions Saints Vikings