Dibs

Because Harvin was never on a 3 year contract. It was always a 1 year deal that was structured as a 3 year deal to save a few cap dollars this season. The 2nd and 3rd years have already been voided. http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/percy-harvin/ It is possible that we re-sign him next season, but would be competing with other teams as he will be a FA.

You been on the wine early today?

Yes, but saying... ...is something completely different.

I am pretty sure that McCoy would have only been here for the 3 seasons left on his contract had we stubbournly refused the small extension we gave him. That might have been fine if he gets injured or hits the wall....but since there is a good chance that he remains productive for a few more years, it is not a smart way to build a solid team....nor does it send a good message to the rest of the players. We would have also had to handle his hefty $9M cap hit this season(which is now $5.5M). The guaranteed monies are not as they used to be. His SB of $13.125 is the only real guaranteed money. His 2015 money is guaranteed...but that would virtually always be paid anyway. And his 2016 money is guaranteed as of the first league day in 2016...which means if we we want to cut him at the end of this year we can, for no additional money. If we don't cut him after 1 year, just like the first year, his money most very likely would be paid regardless(very few big FA signings like this don't see 2 years of their contracts). As to your last comment....my odds, as you put it, were directly taken from previous players history. They are what they are. Unless one can come up with a reasonable explanation as to why McCoy should be an outlier I see no reason not to accept them. They weren't even that good IMO. The odds showed a 50% chance that giving the 2 year extension becomes a total waste of money.

It's actually better than that. If he declines at 30, that will be during the 4th year...therefore we cut him for the 5th costing $2.6M. He would need to decline in his 3rd year(when he is 29) in order for us to cut him when he is 30. If he declines at the age of 31, at the end of that year his contract will be finished(no need to cut him).

Though Brady is a cheat, a primadonna, a whiney whinger and a ginormous girly-man, he is still a superstar QB who just won the SB. How anybody can think(or even lazily speculate) that Garoppolo getting first team reps is anything to do with something other than Brady's 4 game suspension is beyond me.

Which ever QB ends up starting I think will have a very good season.

Surely you aren't saying that only teams in "win now" mode covet star RBs? And I was hoping to leave the aquisition of McCoy alone(covered in many other threads) and focus on the contract that we gave him. Agreed. Also natural variants in runners' durability (some people can naturally take more punishment than others) is impossible to factor as well.

Though the McCoy trade has been talked to death on the board, I have noticed that an aspect to those talks has not really been focused on for discussion....and that is the reworking of McCoy's contract. Two main questions seem to stick out in the trade conversations. A) Is the contract that the Bills gave McCoy reasonable? and B) Will he maintain production throughout the entire contract? As I have a bit of spare time I thought that I would do some research regarding these questions. This undoubtedly will be a long post full of clumsily shuffled together numbers. If that isn't your thing, I recommend you stop reading now. You have been warned. Notes: The age of player that I will use throughout will be the player's age as of December 31st for the correlating season. The contract dollars/year is determined upon cap value, not salary. Is the McCoy contract reasonable? Firstly I thought to compare McCoy to equivalent level talent/production. As a vague benchmark I compiled all RBs currently on rosters who have achieved four 1,000+ yard seasons in their first six years in the league. 4x1,000+ yd season in first 6 yrs: McCoy, Lynch, Forte, Foster, Gore, Charles, Peterson At this point I will take Peterson out of any comparisons. He is clearly a level above all other RBs which is reflected in all stats that I compiled. For interest sake, his numbers are: Age: 30, 6 pro-bowls, 3 All-pro, Contract ends age 32, $15.8/yr...23.5% guaranteed, 1st 6 season workload of 1754 carries, 3x300+ carry seasons(1 being 350+). I determined that Gore should also be removed from comparison as even though he has maintained production(1106 yds last season), his age(32) puts his contract after the standard age that we are looking at. His $4M/yr reflects this. Noticeably missing from this list is Murray(4 seasons, 2x1,000+ years). As he not only got a new contract at the same time as McCoy but is also of the same age(27) and of a theoretically equivalent talent I felt he should be added. Comparative RBs(Age now, Age in last year of contract): McCoy(27, 31), Lynch(29, 31), Forte(30, 30), Murray(27, 31), Foster(29, 30), Charles(29, 31) We can see that the standard final year age for this level of RB contract is 31(Forte and Foster being at 30). Comparative RBs(Pro-bowls/All-pro): McCoy(3/2), Lynch(5/1), Forte(2/0), Murray(2/1), Foster(4/1), Charles(4/2) McCoy and Charles lead this group(Charles after 6 seasons was same as McCoy with 3/2). Comparative RBs(Contracts): Name(year contract was started): Dollars/year(years left on contract)...the guaranteed percent of entire contract when signed. Lynch(15): $10.8M(3)...50% Forte(12): $9.2M(1)...45.4% Foster(12): $9.2M(2)...47.7% Murray(15): $8M(5)...45% McCoy(15): $8M(5)...39.3% Charles(14): $7M(3)...14.2% We can see that 2012 contracts are somewhat higher than the 2015 contracts(sans Lynch), and that the McCoy contract has the lowest guaranteed monies upon contract signing(sans Charles, see below). Notes: It should be noted that Jonathan Stewart is actually comparable in regards to contracts(signed in 2014 for high value) but has only achieved one 1,000+ season with no pro-bowls to this point. His stats for above would be: Jonathan Stewart(14): $8.7M(3)...31.5% (Does anybody know how he obtained such a high contract? I'm baffled.) It should also be noted that Charles has suffered regularly from injuries which undoubtedly kept his dollars(and guaranteed dollars) down. Comparative RBs(workload in first 6 seasons): Name: Number of carries, 300+ carry seasons(350+ carry seasons) Forte: 1551, 1(0) McCoy: 1461, 2(0) Lynch: 1452, 1(0) Foster: 1391, 2(1) Charles: 1043, 0(0) Murray: 934, 1(1) In terms of comparable workload all but Charles seems somewhat comparable(Charles injury history reduces his numbers). Foster and Murray(only 4 years playing) have somewhat less carries but is possibly counteracted by their workhorse 350+ carry seasons. Dibs' conclusion: From all of the data, it seems obvious that the McCoy contract was not out of the ordinary. There are very few RBs who produce at a consistent high rate(regular 1,000+ yard seasons) and these RBs get paid roughly the same amount of money for a contract period that culminates when they reach the age of 31(or 30). McCoy's lower guaranteed monies combined with his greater accomplishments suggest that the contract is perhaps better for the Bills than the standard. Will McCoy maintain productivity through to the end of the contract? Here I thought to look at comparable RBs to McCoy through history. Again using the "4x1,000+ season in first 6 years" as a benchmark I compiled a list of RBs from over the past 20 years. I then determined when said RBs "hit the wall". I determined this by when a RB no longer achieved the 1,000+ yards benchmark. I also pinpointed(to the best of my ability) those RBs who's production stopped due to injuries. I know this is all rather simplistic but it does give a rough age where one can expect a RBs production to reduce. Hitting the Wall: Age of RB when he last achieved 1,000+ yards in a season. Aged 28(1): Chris Johnson Aged 29(5): Ahman Green, Steve Jackson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James Aged 30(2): Eddie George, Thurman Thomas Aged 31(2): Fred Taylor, Curtis Martin Aged 32(2): Ricky Williams, Emmitt Smith Injury Players: Age of RB when he last achieved 1,000+ yards in a season. Aged 26(1): Terrell Davis Aged 27(2): Clinton Portis, Marshall Faulk Aged 28(3): Deuce McAllister, Shaun Alexander, Terry Allen Aged 29(1): Jerome Bettis Aged 30(2): Corey Dillon, Priest Holmes Aged 31(1): Ricky Watters Additional Players(still playing or retired early): Age of RB when he last achieved 1,000+ yards in a season. Aged 30(1): Barry Sanders Aged 31(2): Frank Gore, Tiki Barber(was a back up for first 3 years but fits this category I think). Totals(25 players): 13 RBs(52%) did not produce(1,000+ yards) after the age of 29. 7 RBs(28%) produced 1,000+ yards at age of 31(or older)(age of McCoy in final year of contract). Dibs' Conclusion: From looking at comparable RBs through recent(ish) history, we can guestimate that.... McCoy has roughly a 1 in 2 chance of not being productive in the last 2 seasons of his contract(aged 30 & 31) He has roughly a 1 in 4 chance to remain productive throughout the entire contract. There is roughly a 1 in 4 chance of him not being productive in the last 3 seasons of his contract(aged 29, 30 & 31). There is roughly a 1 in 2 chance of him remaining productive for at least 4 of the 5 contract years.

I don't think you've ever explained why you hate EJ so much. I mean, here is this young athlete who is a part of your team....he tries as hard as he can to become the player that everybody wants for the team...and you sit back patiently for the day he is cut so you can celebrate his failure. What's up with that? Did he run over your dog or something?

She could buy you the bar where you bought her the drink.

But is that developing a QB, or merely molding them for a specific system? And if Foles was "developed" as a QB then why did he regress to the point where Kelly didn't want him anymore? No, I have to disagree. I don't feel that Kelly is good at developing QBs at all.

I'm hoping that there actually was a Marrone induced pressure whispering in his ear "Don't make a mistake. Don't turn the ball over.", and with that gone EJ's lateness might be somewhat reduced.

You forgot the "imo" at the bottom of your post. Edit: Oh, sorry. I thought you were Leroi.

Neither actually. I was responding to Captain Hindsight's second line... "Usually makes the right read but he's late every single time. Gotta speed it up".

I get the impression that the coaches think the same thing. Rex's praise of EJ the other day describing the balls coming out faster "pop, pop, pop" highlighted this I think. (Unless I'm remembering it wrong. I'm sure someone will correct me if so.)

I thought this thread was going to be about some of the old farts on the board.

Though I agree that this news is mainly irrelevant, on rare occasions your starter gets injured by a piece of floor covering followed by your #2 and #3 getting injured....which leads to your scrub playing and even becoming an NFL starter.

That's pretty much what I got from it too. That and Pears should have been benched before week 4.

Probably should have its own thread with all 4 linked. Bound to generate a lot of opinions.

I think that is a very good way of putting it. Nicely done.

Gannon wasn't Gannon till he was 34 years old. Prior to that he was a journeyman with a worse showing than Cassel has to this point. Note: I am in no way suggesting that I believe Cassel will magically improve(as Gannon did).

The general narative at the time was really baffling. Apparently it was a good move for Miami to tag Clay, and he was worth the $7.07M fully guaranteed tag deal.....but a bad deal for the Bills to steal him away and sign him to a long term deal, overpaying him to the tune of $7.6M/year. I guess that extra half a million makes all the difference to the talking heads.

Clay's $13.5M cap hit in 2016 will undoubtedly be reduced. The $10M bonus payment will be reworked as an amortized payment lowering his cap hit by at least $7.5M. I could never understand the angst surrounding his deal. His guaranteed monies are a bit higher than the standard, but his actual average/year is reasonable. There are 3 TEs on $9M+/year....then there are 8 TEs who earn between $7M and $7.6M (Clay being $7.6M). As Clay was the most recent signing on that list, it makes sense that he is on the slightly higher side of the tier two group. I think the problem stems from people thinking that he is not of 2nd tier calibre(which he is). In the larger scale of things, even when one might overpay a TE, the money differences are much lower than overpaying at many other positions.....and who knows? Maybe his top 100 player selection last year was warranted and we find that we got him for a bargain price.

The child abuse issue aside, there is obviously more to this than just money. For the next 3 seasons AP is due $13M, $15M and $17M which is incredibly high for a RB in today's NFL. Very little is guaranteed from this point in his contract, but that is the standard for NFL contracts(with the guaranteed monies usually coming in the first 3 years). To me this really does smell of sour grapes towards his team for how he perceives their treatment of him.....with perhaps a big dose of the grass is greener in Dallas thrown in.