Dibs

Settle down Chicken Little.....even the headline to that article says "....while staff evaluate roster." Would you be more worried or less worried if Marrone and his new staff gave the go ahead on contract talks with players that they have not fully assessed yet?

I agree with all you've said.....except you may be overstating the Culpepper effect. Culpepper only QB'd for Carter in 27 games in 2000-2001.

I agree.....Lofton's tenure in Buffalo was right in the middle of Reed's pro bowl years(90-92) & was virtually book ended by his best seasons(89 + 94). There is a better argument to say that Reed was the stud that an aging Lofton fed off. It is likely however that Moss only helped Carter pad out his stats a little bit in the last third of his career. In the 5 seasons prior to Moss, Carter amassed 5 pro bowl seasons of 86+ receptions & 1000+ yards.....515 receptions, 5930 yards & 56 TDs total over those 5 years. In Reed's 7 pro bowl seasons combined he had 518 receptions, 7408 yards & 50 TDs. IMO Reed deserves to be in the HOF but unfortunately he suffers due to statistical comparisons to his contemporaries(Rice, Irvin, Carter, Brown, Sharpe, Rison).

Ogden made 11 pro bowls in his 12 NFL seasons. He was an easy choice IMO.

Um....okay. Damned lies and statistics as the saying goes. In the better percentage based list there were 2 safeties that made this years pro bowl(Berry, Landry) and 2 past pro bowlers(Mikell, Harper....Harper having made 2). Even in the base numbers list there were 2 safeties that made this years pro bowl(Berry, Whitner) and 1 past pro bowler(Mikell). I tend to think that the accumulation of those stats cannot conclude a safeties relative abilities.....and perhaps there are many other factors which contribute to them which have little to do with the players relative abilities.

I'll just put up a sign "beware of dogs" then.

I have two Burmese, sometimes known as dog-cats due to them having many attributes normally associated with dogs. They "bond" with their owner. They come rushing to the door to greet you, being very happy to see you when you get home . They want to spend a lot of time with you and not just to be fed. They come when called, can be taught to fetch, and generally do a lot more than a standard cat that will simply sleep & eat. It's like having the best of both worlds.

:lol:

I personally think that you just had the "probably" and "by far" in the wrong places.... "Barkley is probably the most impressive quarterback in this draft by far. Highest upside." The conclusion you reached from talking to a select number of scouts was that "Barkley is by far the most impressive QB...". It is probably correct.....but you can't be definitive as it is possible that the 4 scouts you interviewed all had abnormal views on Barkley compared to the other scouts not interviewed(not likely)......hence the word "probably" is added. .....unless of course you are stating your own critical skills assessment of the QB talent and not basing it on the 4 scouts you interviewed.

I can't say for sure, but from looking at his contract it likely won't be that big a boon for them. His contract average is $6.36M and is surprisingly evenly spread. His 2013 cap number will be $6.05M if he plays. He had a $6.25M signing bonus....if he retires before next NFL year that will likely hit them with a $2.7M dead money cap hit.... That means....from my extremely rough and likely wrong calculations that they will save something in the area of $3.4M of cap space.

That's what I was under the impression of(above red)....however the ESPN article you linked states "Buffalo will save $4.45 million in cap space"....I am still confused as to where they get that number from($4.45M cap saving).

No....it's because everyone thought he preferred the company of men.

Prior to the September 11 attacks, football fans in Australia had it made. Australia Day is on the 26th of January and the public holiday for it is always on the following Monday(to give us all a long weekend). That Monday was always Super Bowl Day. 10.30am start. Magic timing. Since 9/11 where the SB has been pushed back a week, my friends & I have had to take the day off work to enjoy SB Day(which we all do every year).

Was small....but still $0.54M

Donna is Einhorn. Einhorn is a man. Einhorn is a MAN!!!

I wonder if ESPN made a mistake(is that likely?). It seems to me that if a player is on the roster on the first day of the football year then they would achieve their roster bonus & subsequently be paid their bonus on the second day of the year. If ESPN is correct however, we have a one day window to save $3M by having Fitz start his new year but cut him before his roster bonus gets paid on the second day. Seems odd to me. I am also unsure where the last million comes from.....$0.45M plus $3M is only $3.45M....not $4.45M as reported. I guess we'll find out soon enough.

It might be for number of starts.....or maybe career tackles or starts?

Hi all, This is the 3rd in a series of threads where I will be breaking down past drafts by individual position. QBs here: http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/155235-drafting-success-qb/ LBs here: http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/155307-drafting-success-lb/ I do this for my own curiosity….and hope you find it of interest as well. Every year, fans & media talk about the draft in relation to plugging holes of weakness on a team. The assumption tends to be that any player drafted in the 1st(particularly high picks), 2nd, 3rd and sometimes 4th round will solve the problems of that team at the given position. I will be endeavouring to ascertain the likelihood of teams actually achieving this for each position. I will be using strict unbiased criteria to avoid personal opinion affecting the results. The criteria I am setting for a player to be considered to “plug a hole” of need is: (Starter) Having played as a starter for the drafting team(12+ starts) for 5+ seasons. I am also determining Stars: 4+ Pro Bowls for the drafting team. And also for a bit of fun am denoting the number of players that achieve 1+ Pro Bowls for the drafting team. I will be breaking the draft up into rounds 1, 2, 3, 4/5, 6/7, as well as breaking the 1st round into 5 sections. #1, #2-#4, #5-#10, #11-#20 & #21-#32. Round 2 will consist of players from #33 to end of round 2. The data pool will be selected from 20 years of drafts from 1986 – 2005. This ensures all draftees have a full 8 years of NFL experience to achieve my benchmarks. (Rounded to the nearest percent) Wide Receivers Round 1 85 players selected 13 Stars 15% (1 in 6.5) 22 Starters 26% (1 in 3.9) 23 probowlers 27% (1 in 3.7) R1 Pick 1 1 player selected 0 Stars 0 Starters 1 probowlers 100% (1 in 1) R1 Picks 2-4 7 players selected 2 Stars 29% (1 in 3.5) 2 Starters 29% (1 in 3.5) 3 probowlers 43% (1 in 2.3) R1 Picks 5-10 18 players selected 4 Stars 22% (1 in 4.5) 5 Starters 28% (1 in 3.6) 7 probowlers 39% (1 in 2.6) R1 Picks 11-20 24 players selected 3 Stars 13% (1 in 8) 5 Starters 21% (1 in 4.8) 5 probowlers 21% (1 in 4.8) R1 Picks 21-32 35 players selected 4 Stars 11% (1 in 8.8) 10 Starters 29% (1 in 3.5) 7 probowlers 20% (1 in 5) Round 2(from pick #33) 71 players selected 2 Stars 3% (1 in 35.5) 9 Starters 13% (1 in 7.9) 9 probowlers 13% (1 in 7.9) Round 3 75 players selected 3 Stars 4% (1 in 25) 8 Starters 11% (1 in 9.4) 8 probowlers 11% (1 in 9.4) Rounds 4/5 152 players selected 0 Stars 2 Starters 1% (1 in 76) 5 probowlers 3% (1 in 30.4) Rounds 6/7 190 players selected 0 Stars 2 Starters 1% (1 in 95) 4 probowlers 2% (1 in 47.5) Notes & Observations: In the unique situation of the Andre Rison trade, I counted him as a Falcons’ draftee in relation to the criteria used. Similar to LBs, I was quite astonished to see that the success rate for the 1st round Starters is basically the same throughout the entire round(26%). Stars however are twice as frequent in the top 10(26%) compared to the 11-32 range(12%). It should be noted that a majority of the Probowl selections in rounds 4-7 were due to special teams performance. Interestingly round 3 is comparable in success to round 2, so much so that it would behoove any team who are after a starting calibre WR to trade down from/in the 2nd round in order to pick up extra 3rd round picks to spend on the WR position. Round 4 onwards was virtually devoid of Starting WR talent. Personally I think that if you are after a starter at WR then selecting one after round 3 is tantamount to throwing the pick away. (I hear people saying…”…but Stevie Johnson!!!” to which I reply “1 in 95 chance in round 7…1 in 76 in round 4”.

The 2 QBs in the SB this year may actually be top tier QBs. The argument is in full swing as to whether Flacco is of that calibre.....and if Kaepernick performs at a top level for the next 4 years he likely will be considered one as well. You didn't outright say it....but your implication was fairly clear.....and you are incorrect. If you want your team to win or even just get into the SB you pretty much need a top QB. That's not to say that if you don't you can't.....just that your chances are much, much less with a 2nd tier(or worse) QB. It also doesn't mean that if you have an Alex Smith type QB that your situation is garbage.....it just means that your winning upper limit is greatly hindered. And here are some stats to support what I am saying.... This is all relatively rough but provides a good overview.... In any given year there are.....and we'll be generous....10 top tier QBs in the league. That leaves....and for the sake of expansion teams we'll call it a 31 team league....21 2nd tier or less QB'd teams in the league. Over the past 20 Super Bowls(XXVII - XLVI), the below lists are the SB QBs....Winners(W), Losers(L) Top Tier(18W, 10L) E. Manning(2W) Brady(3W, 2L) Rodgers(W) Roethlisberger(2W, L) Brees(W) P. Manning(W, L) Warner(W, 2L) McNabb(L) Elway(2W) Favre(W, L) Aikman(3W) Young(W) Kelly(2L) Non Top Tier(2W, 10L) Grossman(L) Hasselbeck(L) Delhomme(L) Johnson(W) Gannon(L) Dilfer(W) Collins(L) McNair(L) Chandler(L) Bledsoe(L) O'Donnell(L) Humphries(L) A top tier QB wins 90% of the SBs(18 of 20). From the guestimations above....if you have a top tier QB you have a 10% chance(1 in 10) that when a top tier QB wins the SB it is your QB. This means that if you have a top tier QB your average chance each year to win the SB is 9%(90%x10%)......or 1 in 11 years on average. A non top tier QB wins 10% of the SBs(2 of 20) From the guestimations above....if you have a non top tier QB you have a 4.8% chance(1 in 21) that when a non top tier QB wins the SB it is your QB. This means that if you have a non top tier QB your average chance each year to win the SB is 0.5%(10%x4.8%)......or 1 in 210 years on average.

Brady's contract is $15.7M ave/year......a lot different from $20M/year. I think he will get Brady-esque money.

2013

Hmmm....I need to ruminate on it for a while. The one thing that really bothers me though.....How the hell did they manage to steal the term QBR away from all of the stat sites?

Alcohol makes 98% of interns look good.

Hijacking the thread a little here..... I have to say that I'm not convinced with the "Total QBR". It is purely an ESPN invention(meaning it will not be adopted by the mass media).....it has not been quantified publicly.....and has obvious flaws in it. On top of that it has stolen the term "QBR" which annoys me. Check the wiki page on "Total QBR". It clearly lists the areas where the system can perhaps be considered deficient. Also.....since only ESPN use TQBR.....it's perhaps not the best system to be quoting on a forum. As....and I'm gonna type it as it is what it has been called ever since I first looked at a football stat.....QBR is the standard QB rating across all media and the NFL.....perhaps that should be the one to quote when making general points.

What we have here is a problem in communication For years "passer rating" was generally referred to as QBR (quarterback rating). When did the terminology change? Hurrumph.....how frustrating.