Dibs

The instant I read the title of this thread I thought..... "That sounds like a very good urban myth."

Great stuff. I notice you used average/year. This is how I have always naturally looked at contracts.....but have come to realize that there are flaws with doing this. Often contracts have loaded back ends which boosts the average....and the standard for Franchise Tagging seems to be based upon each individual years numbers rather than the average. Do you(or others) know if there is a standard way of looking at contracts(by players/teams)......or is it a matter of having to break down and analyze each one?

If there is a legitimate 1st round graded QB then they will be a good prospect.....and we absolutely should be trying to draft them. It may turn out that there won't be any legitimate 1st round graded QBs.....which I guess we'll have a better idea on after the combine. IMO it all comes back to what your goal is as an organization. Do you merely want to be a solid team that can often make the playoffs but has little to no chance of winning a SB.....or do you want to be a great team that will regularly make the playoffs and have a legitimate shot at winning a Championship? There is no point having a strong team if you don't have a star QB.

....who was the only young & relatively healthy Star QB to ever hit the open market. The chain of events that led to his becoming a FA are not likely to happen again anytime soon. Totally agree with you on that....we seem to have placed very little emphasis on obtaining a Star QB through any method in recent years, regardless of the method's likelihood of long term success.

Why? Do you think they will give us the 37 year old Manning for his last 3 seasons in the league?

No....further in the thread it was rightly pointed out that there was a better number breakdown in regards to late 1st round/early 2nd round.....so I re-did the numbers. At that point I chose the #33 pick(due to Brett Favre).....and I now say "top 36" in order to avoid arguments on Dalton & Kaepernick....both of which I personally believe it is too early in their careers to fully judge. The numbers break down as follows: R1 Pick 1-4 19 players selected 4 Stars 21% (1 in 4.8) 9 Starters 47% (1 in 2.1) 9 probowlers 47% (1 in 2.1) R1 Picks 5-33 25 players selected 2 Stars 8% (1 in 12.5) 4 Starters 16% (1 in 6.3) 8 probowlers 32% (1 in 3.1) Picks 34-end round 3 40 players selected 0 Stars 0 Starters 4 probowlers 10% (1 in 10) In answer to your question....Hell Yes! I definitely want us to draft a QB in the first 36 picks. Though the odds are low, it is the only realistic chance of obtaining that much needed Star QB.....and the odds are massively higher than selecting later in the draft.

I'm doubtful that we will draft a CB this year. Ryan/Pettine nearly spent their entire first draft(2009) focusing on QB(Sanchez) Marrone is an Offensive minded HC.....so I'm thinking they'll go after the QB they want(if there is one). Don't get your hopes up from that though as Ryan/Pettine seem totally enamoured with CBs. Having already a Star CB in Revis, in 2010 they traded for Cromartie(2011 2nd round pick).....AND used their 1st round pick(29) on Wilson. I'm hoping Gilmore becomes very good.....and we re-sign McKelvin & he becomes very solid. If those things don't happen we could be seeing several more 1st round CBs in our 2014-2016 drafts......and likely see one regardless.

....but you'd agree that Metz was not in fact far more damning of the defense than Fitz?

Did you read the article? How could you possibly get that impression? On Fitz: "I don't want to throw Fitz under the bus, but you've got to get an answer at quarterback," Metzelaars told me. "That's got to be the No. 1 priority." "If you have a dominating defense, you can get by with an average to below-average quarterback," Metzelaars said. "If you don't have a dominating defense, you need a winning quarterback in the NFL." "Fitz is an average to below-average kind of guy, and unfortunately he made some bad decisions at the end of games and then didn't make plays at the ends of other games we had chances to win. So it's got to start there." "I thought we needed to dominate on defense to let the offense work because when you don't have a great signal caller, there's going to be times when you can't be explosive on offense, when you'll have to go three plays and punt....." "The offensive line is solid. Stevie Johnson is good. The running backs are really good. It's just got to start with the quarterback." "You want to be positive about it," Metzelaars said, "and think 'We're close. Give us another year.' If Fitz gets better or we get better at the quarterback position or get another wideout, then we really could get this thing going....." On the D: "I thought we would have a dominating defense," Metzelaars said. "Unfortunately, it didn't turn out that way. It was disappointing. The expectations of how much money was spent and who it was spent on, we thought things would be different going into the season." "...Too many games we had to score every time we had the ball because of how the defense was."

I hope that won't be the case.....according to the standard trade value chart our 3rd round pick should cover the trade up cost. It's a bit sad that I think that if we did trade, that your expectations may well be fulfilled though.

That was not my intent at all. I know just how hard it is to find a "great QB" inside the first 36 picks.....and the odds are not good. The odds outside of that however are extraordinarily bad. They are so bad that they should discount any thought of using them in one's plan to try to obtain said "great QB". If you are interested.....and I've linked this so many times that I am starting to feel like I am pimping my own thread....but....here is some research I did regarding the success rate of QBs drafted showing the percentage chance breakdowns over a 20 year period. http://forums.twobil...b/#entry2712778 (Reading through the thread will further highlight certain factors/concepts).

The reason is that you can quantify the number of QBs drafted. You can say there were 2 out of 324, for example.....and achieve a realistic look at the percentage chance of success when selecting a QB outside the #36 slot. How do you quantify all of the QBs that were undrafted in order to figure that the chance of success outside of the draft is even more ridiculously small compared to outside the top #36? The point of original comment was to show that it actually is a ridiculously small chance to find your "franchise QB" outside the #36 slot......and to reasonably suggest otherwise is misguided.

Nix has mentioned several times the concept of trading up. It wouldn't surprise me to see a little trade up to #6(Browns) if Barkley is still on the board.

NOOOOO!!!!! Why did you have to go and tempt fate by saying that. Throw some salt over your shoulder or walk under a ladder or something quickly please.

What makes you think you could trade into the top spots to get your dream franchise QB? Do you think Indy would have traded out and given up Luck?

Kurt Warner....undrafted. Undrafted means that they were not drafted. They don't count.

1979 Joe Montana Now we have 2 great QBs drafted outside of the top 36 spots in 34 years. Anybody like those odds?

Too tired....can't be bothered. Riddle me this. Aside from Tom Brady(and Russell Wilson who is too early to fully rate)......name one QB who was selected past the #36 draft spot who can be considered a great QB? Go back as many years as you want.

You are not wrong.... We'd have had Brees in 2001.....and if we somehow lost him we would have had Flacco in 2008.

lol.....I just imagined desperate stoners licking his sweaty forehead to get their daily high.

Am I the only person who thinks that 10.5 sacks from a guy who was hampered by injury most of the season & who played on a horrible D might be indicative of being well worth the massive contract if he can play unhampered by injury in a good D system?

I don't quite understand your point here.... You seem to be initially stating that the stats are misleading/wrong etc......yet you then progress to explain why the stats are actually a legitimate representation of the concept that good QBs never(rarely) see FA. You then finish again with a statement supporting your initial one. I'm confused.

As typically a stoner is a complete dumb-arse, the concept that from your observations smoking weed correlates to greater brain function is perhaps looking at the wrong cause/effect. Perhaps instead it is the greater brain function of certain people which causes them to gravitate towards smoking weed.

Though I agree with the premise that drafting a QB is generally the only way to obtain a top notch QB, I think that only looking at "winning QBs" is not the best way to view things. IMO having a QB like Cutler & Romo(maybe Schaub?) is overall detrimental to your team.....and long term, likely will be worse for the organization they play for than having a Fitz. QBs who are good but not great will regularly win games and get your team into the playoffs. They will make a few pro bowls and generally be good for the fans as their team is regularly having some success. They will not however have much chance at all of leading their team to a championship win(great QBs do that). They command a hefty cap number & usually keep their team from obtaining the top prospects in the draft. While they are on the roster and maintaining a decent level of play their team is unlikely to seek out(via draft) a better QB replacement.....thus the team is unlikely to win a SB in their playing lifetime. Historically there are virtually no great QBs who move teams. Obviously any team that has one is usually willing to break the bank to keep them. The only exceptions are due to age and injury.....with the unlikely possibility of a star in waiting backing up a star QB. Favre, Montana, P. Manning are examples of great QBs who moved from their original teams in the latter stages of their careers. Manning being unusual in that due to the Luck factor(Andrew that is), he moved teams perhaps a year or two before his age became a major issue. Warner, Palmer & Brees are examples of injury causing team change. Brees being subject to an astounding confluence of events which led to him being(IMO) the only true Star QB entering their prime & being relatively healthy to ever hit the open market. Schaub, Hasselbeck, Cassel & Brunell are examples of winning QBs who have left their teams due to being backups behind entrenched starters. Schaub is perhaps the only one in history that shows that he might be of elite level. In short, without an elite QB you have a miniscule chance to win a SB......and since there is a miniscule chance of finding one via FA or Trade.....the draft is the only way to do it. Furthering to that, if you are not taking one within the top 36 picks in the draft, you have virtually no chance of finding your star QB. (Some numbers here supporting this claim: http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/155235-drafting-success-qb/#entry2712778)