Dibs

There has been a fair bit of speculation on the subject of his money received.....and his guaranteed money. I have been trying to figure this......and it has been difficult for multiple reasons.....but I think I have determined the facts of the situation. When you look at the numbers from both of these sites.... http://www.spotrac.c...an-fitzpatrick/ http://www.overtheca...n=QB&Team=Bills ....Fitz's guaranteed money is now being stated as 15m......not the 24m originally stated. I believe this is due to the fact that his new contract was actually an extension of his old contract......and subsequently the 2011 numbers have been removed from the contract information as they fell under the 2009 contract. The originally stated 24m guaranteed would have included his original signing bonus(and guarantees) from his 2009 contract. As I read it.....looking at both breakdowns of his contract(2012-2017).....he has been paid 13m of that guaranteed 15m. (2012 salary of 3m + 10m signing bonus).......a 2m shortfall. Unfortunately I cannot find record of his 2009 deal. From the looks of the numbers however, it certainly looks like it was a 4 year deal(09-12) which contained an 8m signing bonus......which equates to 2m cap hit(or guaranteed money pre-given)/year. The overall numbers for the 2012-2017 seasons add up to 57m......while the contract overall number is stated as 59m. The 2m from the 2009 contract's signing bonus makes up the last 2m shortfall. The end result is that he has received all of his guaranteed monies. Whew!

It actually won't make cutting him in the future easier on the cap. A pay cut will only effect the new monies that he will receive......the 10m lump bonus type monies are the ones that effect the dead money if cut.....which will not change. Either way......pay cut or not......if cut after this season we will have a 7m dead cap hit.....or a 4m dead cap hit if cut after next season.

One's heart melts as two long lost lovers improbably find each other against all odds on TSW.

With the text & emails showing that he was aware of the drugs......I just assumed that a smart man like him could have easily invented the "imposter online girlfriend" as an excuse. I actually believe that the stupidity/gullibility of people is virtually limitless.....usually based upon emotions overriding the ability to think rationally....love/hate/greed etc. With the Te'o case....I was more unbelieving that somebody could go to so much effort to dupe another person with apparently nothing to gain from the deception.....than I was that a person(Te'o) could be duped in such a manner.

Actually it was "how gullible is he?".....to which I figure the answer is not very gullible at all. How gullible can you be? Hmmm.....Mante Teo seemed to show that being gullible is pretty easy. BTW......I have a bridge that I'm interested in selling.....anybody interested?

He's a great solid possession guy.....some sure hands to help a rookie QB grow his confidence with over his first couple of years in the league. SJ will still be young enough to see him through mid term. The problem with getting a young receiver is that you must also rely upon them becoming first rate NFL WRs.....if they don't manage to do that(most don't)....then the whole "grow with the QB" becomes counter productive.

Not exactly a crusade......but surely this sort of spam posting needs policing?

There really should be a minimum age requirement for joining this forum.

I agree totally with the other things you said.....but the above....hard to see how we could have topped the Skins offer..... Pick #6 & #39....plus 2013 & 2014 1st round picks.....for pick #2. We had pick #10 & #41.....we would have had to also give up a 3rd & 4th round pick just to equal the value of the Redskins offer.

You probably should have used the term "of all time" in your title & OP.....it's actually a little confusing without that.

The Bills have been running a rhythm method offense for over a decade. That's where we pull out just before we score.

Geez Joe.....every time I even slightly disagree with you over something.....and never done in an insulting manner.....you attack & attempt to belittle me. Yet when metzelaars_lives disagrees, attacks and outright insults you("This thread is insulting to the intelligence of anyone who considers themself a football fan....or c) (most likely) you don't know anything about football. Seeing as though you have Manti Te'o as your avatar, I'm leaning c.").....you maintain a well polished civility. Quite frankly I am disappointed......I was hoping to see some fireworks.

Well.....he was found guilty.....and I'd say his text and email messages went a long way to confirming that verdict. "Was worried only about sniffer dogs but more." "SIRU” — the Hotel Siru, where they were planning to meet in Brussels — “IS AMBUSH.” 10:14 a.m.: “Your naivety is bad for me, us. This is millions. NO SIRU, OK?" "This stuff is worth nothing in Bolivia, but $Ms in Europe. You meet me at the airport and we do not go near the hotel the ‘agent’ suggested. Stay at another hotel." "WHY ARE YOU IGNORING ME? AT THIS LAST MOMENT. WE DID NOT DECIDE HOW TO MEET TOMORROW IN BRUSSELS AND KEEP COCA & LIVES. AT SIRU WE MAY LOSE BOTH!!” At 1:06: “We may do cool 1,000,000."

So we don't use a 1st round pick to try to find an Elite QB because the odds are against it happening? Where do we find our Elite QB from then? BTW.....the odds are against finding a starter for very long, for any position picked in the 1st round. That is simply not true. In recent times(last 13 years) teams win(& lose) the SB with average play in many areas of the team.....as well as poor play in certain areas. The only true commonality in SB winning teams is having an Elite QB......and the only place to have a realistic chance of getting an Elite QB is in the 1st round of the draft.

Good enough for what though?

The link is a little ambiguous as it includes all of his possible escalators in the total & average value of the contract. Even so.....his average salary(from another site) is 5.5m/year......which still makes McKelvin's contract look good in comparison.

32 games.....2 full seasons exactly. Though I think it a bit disingenuous to imply that because a player(particularly a DB) doesn't start, that he doesn't get playing time. McKelvin has had 64 games of playing time. Like most things, it's likely somewhere in between.

It's not as bad as 50%.....but it's pretty awful. Ignoring "first pick" concept.....and just looking at 1st round(top 32 selections)..... Starting at 1984(because it makes it look worse ).....the Bills..... ....have selected 32 times inside the top 32 picks. 11 DBs, 6 RBs.....we have drafted 53% DB/RB over the past 29 years. League wide over that time.... 928 selections....146 DBs....109 RBs. Subtracting the Bills numbers from the League numbers gives us the average of other teams.... 896 selections....135 DBs(15.1%)....103 RBs(11.5%)...........238 DB/RB(26.5%) Compared with the Bills..... 32 selections....11 DBs(34.4%)....6 RBs(18.8%)............17 DB/RB(53.1%). IMO, a bigger factor than simply having HCs/GMs with a natural proclivity towards drafting DB/RB has been the unwillingness/inability to retain the good draft picks.....often creating a hole at the position......which leads to further drafting of the position. Relating this to today's events......I much prefer the concept that our #2 CB is perhaps a bit below where you would want him to be, rather than spend yet another high draft pick(yet again) in replacing him.

I think that the analytics used in the Baseball "moneyball" concept is only marginally useful when applied to Football. I'll preface my comments by saying that I have very little knowledge of Baseball, so the terminology I use will be non-standard/incorrect.....and it is possible that the basis for my view is wrong(if so, somebody can correct me).......but I have seen the movie so I have a base understanding(I think) of how "moneyball" works. Baseball players can be individually rated based upon base hitting statistics. Their individual performance is not affected by the rest of the team they are playing with. It is a relatively simple process then to divide those individual statistics by the amount of money they command, to see if they are of good or bad value. Football players cannot however be rated in such a manner. Every statistic that a Football player has(apart from Punter/Kicker) is intrinsically linked to their fellow teammates and the system and style of the Football that their team is employing, as well as overall coaching(particularly what plays are called & when). (I will go into examples of what I mean here if anybody wants.....I am figuring however that it is obvious, so I won't at this point waste paragraphs explaining the concept.) IMO, the ability of scouts/coaches etc in Football to evaluate the individual talent of players is paramount. Only after a successful individual "by eye" evaluation has been made can one then attempt to factor in whether a player is worth "X" dollars. Further complicating the issue is that there is no(or very vague at best) direct statistical correlation to enable one to ascertain what skill level or player position is worth what percent of the limited cap dollars to a team. For me, analytics could be an extremely useful tool in the NFL.....but in many various areas....not so much in the manner that it is used for in Baseball.

I totally agree.....and I think overall we have pretty much the same thoughts on the issue. My main point is in regards to drafting QBs after the 1st round.....and the common view that we can "pick one up in the 2nd". Drafting inside the 1st round for QB has a very low success rate(as you{& I} have shown).....but drafting after the 1st round(or very high 2nd, top 36) has shown to have such a massively low success rate for finding solid starters, let alone a desired Elite QB, that it should not be considered in any plans for attempting to find ones QB of the future. It is clear that the NFL scouts do a very good job......and any QB who has a glimmer of a chance to become an Elite QB is recognized.....and is virtually never selected past pick 36(I used to say pick 33 but I changed to avoid a Kaepernick discussion). Essentially, if your QB drops to the #41 pick, there is virtually no chance that he will become an Elite QB. It is a total misconception that "there will be plenty of good QBs available in the 2nd round".

I'd be wanting tongs to move that man-sized Panda off the bed if I got that room.

Moore being a FA was the only bit which I knew you got correct.....you might have got them all correct.

That's a good point. (I'll have to readjust my flippant theory ) I don't understand why you refer to Marrone/Hackett in a derogatory manner though(Marroon/Hackem).

Correct.

I am hoping that the scouts that matter(the NFL team scouts) don't rate Nassib above a mid 3rd round talent......and that he quickly fails in the NFL. This is nothing personal I have against him. It's just that if it is apparent that he is not a good QB prospect(or good QB), then it shines favourably upon Marrone/Hackett as they managed to have relative success with a lesser talent. Conversely, if Nassib is a high 2nd rounder or better prospect/talent....and he quickly becomes a good QB in the NFL......this will imply that there was an element that Marrone/Hackett rode on the coattails of their talented QB. Fingers crossed that Nassib is rated quite low and then fails dismally.