Dibs

No....all good! It gave me some actual numbers to crunch to get a rough comparative percentage. (...and between the OP & your post....and other responses in this thread.....I have learned a lot about North/South Football/non-football in this thread. )

I agree. Irrelevant to the concept of us going after one of the big names in FA......I think this is the perfect off-season to be patient with FA. (The following are assumptions based upon observation & memory.....please someone correct me if you can show them to be incorrect ) The cap hasn't risen much in 3 years.....yet FA contracts have increased each off-season at the roughly the usual increase rate. This means that there are the usual number of FAs hitting the market......but a lower amount of over-all cap dollars available to pay them. I believe the top FAs will still command premium contracts.....and likely at an increase from last years contracts. As the dust settles from the big name signings, there will be exponentially less money league wide to pay the rest of the FAs. I think it quite likely that there will be many mid-range FAs who find themselves in the position where teams simply will not be able to afford them at their asking price......and consequently a patient team....a team who waits.....will be able to sign mid-range talent at well under the going rate. It's a crazy concept......I'm likely wrong.....but if I was in the Bills position I would be using analytic studies to figure out if there is any possibility that this off-season could be a massively beneficial buyers market.

Mathematically.....based upon the numbers you have just given.....there would be a 20% chance that any given team would pick 3 1st rounders in a row from a Southern school. This is not bad at all......that would mean that on average there would be 6.4 teams that did it. The OP mentioned however that the Bills picked a Southern school player for each of the first 3 rounds in each of the 3 years. As I have no actual numbers, I am going to assume that the odds for picking a Southern school player are roughly the same throughout each round(somebody correct me if it is vastly different). The odds of then of picking a Southern school player in the first 3 rounds in three consecutive years would be......0.8%.....or 1 in 123. This again isn't too far out of the realms of pure chance as on average there is a 1 in 3.8 chance that this would occur for one team in the league(of 32 teams). When you factor in the 4th-7th round picks......14 of 18 selected from Southern schools.......the odds go off the charts. Mathematically it is extremely highly improbable that it would occur.

Thanks for the info. Statistically speaking it would be extremely unlikely for the drafting pattern you have shown to occur, without some sort of personal bias involved. I have not lived in America......is an overall North-South bias an unheard of phenomena? Or is it a known bias amongst a certain percent of the population? I know there is a natural bias amongst some people towards their home State.....and particularly their home College......but am unsure if this bias occurs in people over such a broad geographical area. If it is not unheard of for some people to favour anything North.....or anything South, over their geographical opposite equivalences, then perhaps this is a case of Nix drinking the Southern cool-aid. He sees two equivalent talents.....one from the North, one from the South. His natural emotional bias towards the South has him perceive the Southern player as a slightly better fit(even though both are rated to a similar level).....therefore he gives the nod to the Southern player. Rinse & repeat.

Does this mean the Jets become unlikely to take a rookie QB this year.....particularly in the 1st round? If it does, this would mean that Buffalo could far more comfortably trade down to grab their desired QB(if available) without the fear of the Jets snatching him at #9. Better yet, it could mean that we can be more comfortable using the #8 pick on a LB.....and trade up from the 2nd into the late 1st to grab our QB.

I totally agree with your central point. In fact, it seems odd to me that the people who strongly object to the high and constant drafting of DBs, also seem to strongly object to paying veteran players salaries commensurate to a solid/good starters going rate. It seems that some people simply don't want decent DBs on the roster at all.

Unless you do some sort of breakdown for where the DBs were selected, there is no real way of telling if a team is spending a lot of their high 1st round picks on DBs.....or aren't. As it turns out, the study I did showed a general similarity with all groups(SB, Average & Dumbasses) in the number of DBs selected in the 1st round......just as your list above showed. I wasn't however making any base or general points......I was merely addressing the specific point that JohnC made about the Patriots & Bills DB drafting where he implied that they both drafted similarly. It was disingenuous to state it as such, for as they both may have drafted DBs in similar quantity, the Bills allocated a far greater amount of their higher draft picks to the DB position than the Patriots did.

Did you see the earlier post? Of the Bills 7 highest valued picks......we picked DB 3 times.....43% Of the Patriots 7 highest valued picks......they picked DB 0 times.....0%

I wasn't missing the point at all. Everything you just stated I totally agree with and was well aware of it prior. I was responding to your statement of.... ".......It is ironic that you harshly criticize this goofy franchise for over drafting DBs while the most successful franchise in this generation, the Pats, is a franchise that freguently drafts DBs." It was a flippant statement that misrepresented the reality of the situation. As I showed, the Bills used far higher draft stock for DBs & at a much regular rate than the Patriots did.

It's for the older crowd....you know....those guys that go to bed at 7.30pm.

You've probably seen me write this before....but.....any QB who falls past the first few spots in the 2nd round, likely has an insignificant chance of becoming an Elite QB. The talent scouts invariably recognize the "chance for greatness" in a QB prospect......and any QB with that chance goes before pick 37. That said, I personally would be happy for the Bills to trade up, down, into or around to get one of those QBs who has a "chance for greatness". If we don't believe that one is worthy to be selected in the 1st round......then honestly I would rather not select one at all.

Is that a fact?

This certainly would be a surprise considering all of the wailing and gnashing of teeth that his non-tendering caused. It is also quite within the realms of possibility IMO.

Under the assumption that we will be drafting a QB in the 1st.....me too....100% agree.

Lindell would be an extremely surprising cut IMO as he was only recently re-signed. His cap situation.....though of a much lesser value.....is similar to that of Fitz. If we cut him before March 12 we save only 300K in cap having a 2.7m dead cap hit.....and if we cut him after March 12, we have a 900K dead cap hit plus a 1.8m dead cap hit next season. Even more so with Mark Anderson. Cutting him prior to March 12 will actually cost us 500K more on the cap, totaling 4.5m dead cap hit......and if we cut him after March 12, we have a 1.5m dead cap hit plus a 3m dead cap hit next season.

Though it doesn't specifically highlight the Steelers, have a look at this study I did on drafting trends: http://forums.twobil...t/#entry2743099 It covers the 6 years of drafting leading up to a SB appearance for all teams that made a SB since 2000......as well as the worst group of teams(of which the Bills are obviously one of)......as well as the rest of the teams...........and then compares the three groups against each other. The two major standout statistics that the study highlighted were: SB teams drafted DB inside the top 15(particularly top 10) at a much lower rate than the non SB teams. The Dumbass teams selected LB inside the top 15 at a much lower rate than the rest of the league. EDIT: In answer to your question.....The Steelers have only used 3 1st/2nd round draft picks on DBs since 2000. #16, #38 & #62

Are you sure? I'm certain I've seen whole lists of them on the different Football sites.....oh well, I'll take your word for it then.

Ignore the actual numbers if that makes it easier for you.....let's say that the numbers are comparable. The Bills had a lot of red to the left on the number list(their earlier picks) than the Patriots. How can you not see this? Both teams had a comparable number of picks inside the top 21. The Bills had 10.....the Patriots had 8. The Bills chose to use 4 of those picks on DBs.......the Patriots Zero. First round.....Bills had 15 picks.....Patriots 13 picks. Bills selected 4 DBs.....Patriots 2. Top 15.....Bills indeed had a lot more.....10 compared to the Patriots 3......but the Bills chose 4 DBs there......while the Patriots chose ZERO. EDIT: Looking at it another way..... Of both teams most valuable 7 picks......the Bills selected DB 3 times.....Patriots ZERO.

It is perhaps where the DBs are drafted that makes the bigger difference. Draft picks within the top 2 rounds since 2000....DBs in red. Bills: 3, 4, 8, 9, 10, 11, 11, 12, 13, 21, 22, 23, 26, 26, 28, 34, 34, 36, 41, 41, 41, 42, 46, 48, 51, 55, 58, 58, 61 Patriots: 6, 10, 13, 17, 21, 21, 21, 21, 24, 25, 27, 32, 32, 33, 34, 36, 36, 40, 41, 42, 45, 46, 48, 48, 53, 56, 58, 62, 62, 63, 65 Both teams drafted 7 DBs in the first 2 rounds over the 13 years. Inside top 10... Bills 3 of 9 (33%) Patriots 0 of 2 (0%) Inside top 15... Bills 4 of 10 (40%) Patriots 0 of 3 (0%) Inside top 21... Bills 4 of 10 (40%) Patriots 0 of 8 (0%) Comparing the two team's DB selections actually backs up Bill's views.

Everybody seems to have revisionist memory in regards to how RG3 was typically viewed prior to the draft. Luck was graded across the board as the best prospect. RG3 was generally graded as a top prospect.....but not an elite one.....and it was only due to him being a QB that he was selected in amongst the elite prospects. ProFootballWeekly.....though not the be-all and end-all of grading, had RG3 at a 6.7(6th best in draft). Luck was graded at 8.5(virtually off the charts). Though their 2013 grades are not released yet, I get the distinct impression.....based upon all the experts opinions....that on their scale, Warmack will be graded at least a 7.5.

Very good read. Thx.

I'd been wondering about this......thanks for the link. If the Bills are wanting to make things as easy as possible for a rookie QB coming in this year.....they will want as much cap money to strengthen the team for this season. I wouldn't be surprised at all(assuming that link is correct) that the Bills cut Fitz on day 1 of the new NFL year......thus avoiding the 10m cap hit this season by spreading it into 2014. By doing this, they would get a 7.45m instant cap saving.......easily enough to sign Levitre with......and have a 7m dead cap hit next year(2014)......all for no extra cash spent.

I don't think they misjudged his talent at all. If you recall, he was having off-field issues which not only effected his perceived long term value.....but it can be easily argued that perhaps his off-field issues affected his playing performance(which declined each year in Buffalo). The main factor in my mind was FJ. He progressively got better at a similar time to Lynch declining. With roughly split starts in 2009, FJ was 4.5 Y/A.....Lynch only 3.8 Y/A. It didn't mean that the Bills undervalued the talent of Lynch, they simply chose to go with FJ because he showed better potential.....and the decision was proved to be correct in terms of talent assessment as he developed into a legit league MVP contender(until his injury killed that dream in 2011). To me, it was just one of those things. I don't see their treatment or assessment of Lynch to be anything but logical for the factors involved at the time. The fact that Lynch turned things around after he left.....and the fact that FJ developed injury concerns....should not effect how one judges the decisions made at the time. Similarly.....the fact that Spiller became great....and FJ developed injury concerns.....should not effect how one judges the decision to draft Spiller at the time.

Though you are correct that the argument was never Spiller/Lynch......and people somehow have forgotten that when we drafted Spiller, Lynch had become a virtual non-factor for the Bills......I believe that the base point that many posters here are making still stands. In 2009, Jackson produced 1062 yards at 4.5 Y/A in 11 starts. We also had Lynch.....who though troubled and lacking in production provided great depth at the position. To go ahead and spend the #9 pick on a RB while in that situation was misguided, particularly when the team was weak in other areas. The only justification that I can see is that the Bills went Best Player Available in 2010......and had rated Spiller as one of the top 3-5 Elite players in that draft. As it turns out.....if that was the case.....it looks like that rating was correct.

Not that I rate my own opinion in these particular matters......but for what it's worth, based upon our list of needs, our cap situation, and value for money......Gibson is my #1 choice as a FA WR.