Lothar

Interesting hypothesis. I think this possibility holds more credence if we select Brian Leonard in the 2nd. Assuming we go LB in the 1st, we may have a shot at him in the 2nd - I can't think of a better fit as a 3rd down receiver and ultimate team guy after reading about how he nearly single-handedly brought Rutgers back to life - go watch his highlights on the yahoo nfl draft site - his balance and ability to hurdle tacklers is pretty jaw-dropping for a 230 pound fullback who has maybe the best hands of ANY player coming out. If we do go the Leonard route, then I can see us going after a Shaud Williams-like shifty, quick alternative with a 2nd day pick. Some of this may depend on whether we take Willis or not. If we don't get him, I can see us taking a couple LBs instead - including small school prospect Justin Durant. I do think that our tactic will be going after numbers if we don't get a premier pick at the RB or LB positions.

actually, did a quick search for early line and found us in the bottom 3rd as far as Super Bowl prospects - probably reasonable at this point in the offseason considering the hits we've taken: early line on SB odds Odds to win the 2008 Super Bowl XLII Odds All wagers have action. No Parlays. Max $600 Arizona Cardinals 35/1 Atlanta Falcons 50/1 Baltimore Ravens 15/1 Buffalo Bills 50/1 Carolina Panthers 20/1 Chicago Bears 10/1 Cincinnati Bengals 15/1 Cleveland Browns 100/1 Dallas Cowboys 15/1 Denver Broncos 15/1 Detroit Lions 100/1 Green Bay Packers 50/1 Houston Texans 100/1 Indianapolis Colts 8/1 Jacksonville Jaguars 30/1 Kansas City Chiefs 30/1 Miami Dolphins 40/1 Minnesota Vikings 70/1 New England Patriots 3/1 New Orleans Saints 19/1 New York Giants 20/1 New York Jets 30/1 Oakland Raiders 80/1 Philadelphia Eagles 18/1 Pittsburgh Steelers 18/1 San Diego Chargers 6/1 San Francisco 49ers 45/1 Seattle Seahawks 12/1 St.Louis Rams 55/1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 70/1 Tennessee Titans 38/1 Washington Redskins 50/1

I know I know, they don't know Marv like we know Marv and Willis sucks and all but I wonder how this board might react if we ended up 4-12 or 5-11 next year. Any gamblers out there know if this really is how wise guys see us right now?

I think this is a bad idea. Henry defines the classic workout warrior - he was basically an above-average track guy pretending to be a below-average RB at U of A. Perhaps more than most positions, grading a running back should be 75% productivity - true skills aren't hidden on the football field. Unless he had an awful offensive OL, I'd be very wary of straight line speed numbers: In 35 games at Arizona, Henry started six times. He rushed 269 times for 892 yards (3.3 avg.) and nine touchdowns. He snatched 26 passes for 205 yards (7.9 avg.) and a score. He also returned four kickoffs for 25 yards (6.2 avg.) and recorded one solo tackle. Compare those numbers to those of Kenneth Darby - who ran behind one one of the worst OLs in the country: In 47 games at Alabama, Darby started 31 contests. He ranks third in school history with 3,324 yards on 702 carries (4.7 avg) and 11 touchdowns. He also made 70 catches for 340 yards (4.9 avg) and a pair of scores, adding four solo tackles with two fumble recoveries. Compares To: DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers (Memphis) -- Darby is bigger than Williams, but both rely on their exceptional burst, outstanding field vision and instincts with the ball to be slippery outside runners. Darby has a great feel for the crease and cutback lanes, but relies more on his elusiveness; he doesn't have the ideal strength to be a power runner. I like this kid in the middle rounds if we don't get Lynch. He has good hands and unlike some of the big backs, he'd be a good complement to the A-train.

Actually, unlike a lot of tripe that spout opinions, I found that article pretty factual and interesting. This being a rather weak year for RB, I still think Marshawn Lynch is in the running as our pick - an all-purpose back with speed and hands (I just don't think Peterson's a good fit for Fairchild's offense.) Unfortunately, the loss of 2 LB this offseason makes this a tough sell for a 1st pick.

actually being 2 years removed from this injury is a big difference - see Julian Peterson

I'm just playin' ... don't take me too literally. There are no bad suggestions, just people who make too many of 'em.

Oh yeah, Lavar would be great! And by great I mean "gawd no!" I'd rather have a recovering Spikes than Arrington ... worlds of talent, unable to play within a scheme, and costing at least as much as all our prospective draft picks put together. Yah that should work.

And if you were the half the person I thought you were before your response, I'd be angry ... or at least pi$$ed ... possibly even perturbed. Jeez, look what you made me do for my 500th post - hope you're happy. I'll have you know I was planning a diatribe worthy of Pyrite Gal but noooooo, someone's got to be a total ^&%$ - sheesh.

Todd, I hate to say it but I agree with him as well. If you asked most NFL scouts who were the 10 most talented players we had on our team last year, I'd reckon most people would include Fletcher, Clements in that group. Spikes, if he has recovered to even 80% of his 2004 talent, would probably also be in that group. McGahee, even with his problems, would fit there as well. I don't blame Marv for doing what he's doing - but make no mistake, this is a rebuilding year and we should not expect to be any more than a .500 team. My primary beef with the Bills front office is what we paid Walker and what we paid Kelsay - this resembles the Peerless signing last year - not bad moves per se, just way more than market value for their skill level - and these signings limit what we can pay potential game changers like Evans and (possibly) Losman. What I'm surprised at is the overwhelming number of knowledgeable fans on this board who have a hard time admitting that we will probably be worse before we get better based on our moves this offseason. Who knows, maybe we'll strike lightning in a bottle and Lynch (or Peterson or whoever in this weak RB class) becomes a capable performer instantly - or better yet, Willis or Poz is an impact starter that vastly improves our run D - or Youboty or Hall becomes a solid corner in short order. Overall, I expect our offense to improve a bit if we get Lynch or Turner but I don't see our defense looking better no matter who we draft. I'm a diehard fan but it's hard to deny we've lost an awful lot of leadership and talent over the last couple months.

Fair enough. More importantly though, that doesn't explain your perpetually changing icon ... I know I check in to the Wall just to see the latest creative knockoff.

Hey lips - I think you're getting beaten up a little unfairly here. There's nothing wrong with expressing doubts about the moves we've made this offseason. Sometimes, the herd mentality around here - whether good or bad - just can't stop. Often times it's scarily deserved (like ICE's implosion) but sometimes people simply have trouble with negative opinions. I have my own issues with what's going on at 1 Bills Drive but let's look at the offseason as a whole (with apologies to Pyrite Gal for the length of this post): 1. McGahee - I know we all hate him and his anti-Buffalo stance but I just happened to re-watch several of our early games this season and Willis was a horse - remember he was leading the league in rushing a quarter way thru the season. He also made some spectacular blitz pickups (check out the Miami game when he stuffed 2 rushers - including Gandy's man) and allowed JP to pick up a key 1st down. All that said, he was clearly not the same back after the 1st month of the season - not sure if it was bad blocking, bad attitude or injuries but things weren't the same. Unfortunately, this move had to be made - and based on recent trades, we probably got all we could. I do think he can become a very good back in Baltimore - if he's happier and motivated. 2. Clements - I'm coming around to Marv's side on this one. I thought we should have tried to lock him up last offseason but he came off an awful year and I'm sure most of the front office had doubts. I also think that when Fewell made adjustments midseason to keep Nate on the best wideout, we suddenly became a decent defense - and that's no accident. However, the numbers he received from the Niners are preposterous, even by today's standards, and it sounds like a good cover 2 (which we don't yet have) shouldn't rely on lockdown corners. 3. Dockery - big signing (literally and financially) - I loved this move even if it seems the dollars are a bit high. Subsequent signings of Steinbach and Davis indicate it's the going rate for quality guards in the new market. Left guard has been a position of need for years and DD seems a good fit. 4. Walker - I'm scratching my head on this one. I assume McNally and Fairchild really think that ALL of his problems in Oakland came out of the blocking schemes Art Shell was implementing. Otherwise, 5 mil per year seems silly. In effect, is Pennington/Butler at RT that much worse than someone who absolutely WAS a turnstile last year in Oakland. Of all Marv's moves, this is the one I struggle with. Based on comments from pundits and scouts, people expected Walker to sign with someone for a fraction of what he did (I actually saw one scout comment that he expected LW to sign for not much more than the vet minimum.) 5. Whittle - good depth pickup, reasonable contract. 6. Spikes - salary dump, bad apple purge, injury question - I don't know about this one either. If folks are convinced that he is worse than anyone else left on the FA scrap pile, maybe it makes sense to trade him. However, Julian Peterson's return to Pro Bowl success 2 years removed from an achilles injury should be a testament to keep Takeo. Otherwise, even if we draft Willis or Poz, having Spikes' leadership is not something to easily ignore. 7. Kelsay - awful lot of money for "less than Denney" numbers but he's young and supposedly getting better. What were our weaknesses going into the offseason? 1. OG 2. Maybe DT, I know McCargo's hurt but we're still lacking a run stuffer (no surprise that Indy ended up trading for one in midseason) 3. CB - expecting to lose Clements 4. Red-zone wideout 5. MLB - thinking we could lose Fletcher Where are we now? 1. LB - 2/3 of our starters are gone - I like Ellison a lot but it's a big difference between fill-in and starter 2. RB - after watching tape of early season games, I think people underestimate how much Willis did behind a crappy line. But I do think RB by committee with a draft pick and an experienced Thomas as insurance will get us 80% of the way there. 3. DT - I liked the McCargo pick but he needs to show some massive improvement in year 2 plus it still doesn't give us a big body. I really would have liked to pick up a 2nd tier FA or even trade for someone - this is not something we'll quick fix in the draft like RB. 4. CB - I'm actually ok with Yobouty, assuming our run defense gets fixed. If it doesn't, Clements' departure will stick out like a sore thumb. 5. Red zone wideout - too bad we lost Nance to Minnesota. All in all, given what we lost and gained - and if we take emotion out of it - I think we're worse right now than we were going into the offseason. If Marv's plan is to remake the team with his own type of players, I guess I can't begrudge him another year till we get more playmakers. But if we get worse (or even don't improve) at stopping the run - and I know "the offense will be better at controlling the ball" argument MAY come into play, this whole board will be singing a different tune by mid-season.

While Turner is an interesting option, I'm of the belief that Fairchild wants a complete back. In that case, Lynch (maybe due to these back injury rumors - which sounds kinda fishy to me) or even Leonard may become viable options in the 2nd. The reason I invoke Leonard's name is that, though he's no Thurman, his versatility would be a good fit for this team - especially since next year's class will have better true HBs.

Some interesting comments prior to McGahee trade + his take on available backs ... nothing earth-shaking here except his high praise for Brian Leonard, also said that Lynch is way better than Arrington. packer chatter

I've heard he was a "dominant tackle" comments from Michigan alum as well though he didn't stand out in the two games I saw. I'm assuming our scouts will ferret out the whole story. The fact that he seems to have been out of shape at his pro day and comments like yours does give one pause. To be fair, though, even Bruce Smith took a year or 2 to get himself in shape - sometimes the motivation of having a job can do wonders.

This was dicussed a few days back - with the end result being that the whole wrestlemania slapfight is not really a good indicator of success. As you may remember, the guy who performed the best at this was our own Timmy Anderson ... it may test endurance but I don't think it factors key features like explosion and foot speed. Branch may not be in the best shape but if he has the other characteristics, he may yet be worth a shot at number 12.

One caveat in all this is - and correct me if I'm wrong here - I don't think the Bills even talked to Whitner at the combines or later - they knew what kind of talent he was. I believe that during the Donahoe era, we were much more likely to tip our hand with comments but I just don't think we can read all that much into our first round selection process from the meet and greets. However, some of the potential later picks are probably being looked at in this manner so it does bear watching.

now come on - are you really Tipster? You used to provide interesting insight on a variety of Bills issues. Some of the stuff you're spouting now reminds me of the way Ice used to throw up all over this board.

to me this is an indictment of management ... you know the cap is going to jump big in a year - why not sign your top players with guaranteed contracts (most of the money deferred to this year and later) and not have to deal with paying the Langston Walkers of the world outrageous money. Wouldn't a little foresight have come in handy? And I'm not talking just about the Bills ... though we left 20 million on the table by the end of the year. Arrgggh - I'm no financial whiz but isn't this just basic money management 101?

I'm with you. If we are so cash strapped, why spend such a chunk of money on a part-time DE who was 2nd best at his position on the Bills mediocre D. I'll give this admin the benefit of the doubt but jeez - this is kinda like the Price signing last year. I can think of about 40 DEs better than Kelsay and 2 play on our team. The most troubling thing to me is we knew the cap was going up by 25+ mil after the new TV contract - why the hell didn't we take advantage of that fact and sign our best young players to long term deals then - I'm glad we got Peters done but we left a stack of money on the table that should've been used to lock up Evans and others before all the inflated salaries kicked in starting this year

whaaa? Ellison would be the smallest middle linebacker in the pros + practically all Division 1A schools + some women's pro leagues and even a couple jacked-up mighty mite teams. I think rather that Spikes or Crowell would be moved into the middle if we didn't get an adequate replacement in free agency.

Most of the tiebreaker scenarios say we need KC to win

that's a Bears fan talking

Unlike last week when the talk was about how good we were after beating Miami, I like our chances this week. I wanted to post before the Jets game but I really thought we were getting set up for a letdown. I was worried about Pennington's short passing game, the ludicrous accolades the team got for beating an overrated Miami and the general over-optimism, not just from the fans but the players. And while I think Minny is a better team than the Jets, I just think the Bills will be better prepared for what's coming. To be honest, I was pleasantly surprised at how well the team played overall, but I didn't like our defense against the short passing game. I'm guessing Fewell will be more aggressive against a similar Minnesota offensive scheme. I can't see a scenario where the game won't be within 10 points either way and while Johnson has an edge in end-of-game heroics, JP may as well start this week in winning late. And I agree with several people on this board - that we'll know JP has "arrived" when he leads a 4th quarter drive to tie or win the game. Why not JP? Why not now?

if that title isn't the ultimate "LAMP" post ...