Pyrite Gal

The question is why on earth folkd seem to hsve come to a conclusion that Ngata does not fit into our scheme. I think this draws way too many assumptions and even at that the assumption that he does not fit cover 2 requirements may well be an incorrect assumption in and of itself. I know that the "talk" out of OBD is of wanting fast athletic DL players, but actually this strikes me as a good description already of Schobel, Kelsay, Denney and Triplett and in no way disqualifies us from picking a monster run stopper to stay at home and team with these fast DL players. There are also some theories around the concepts of a 1gap DT versus a 2 gap DT and Ngata not being the type of 1 gapper we need. This assumption seems to take as a given knowledge of how Jauron with Fewell DC ing this cover are actually going to implement it given the Bills personnel/ I can easily see the Bills running a cover 2 utilizing someone of Ngata's skills and talents to make this work/ I rhink the concep that he does not fit the Bills scheme may in fact prove to be true, but for now is little more than a assumption made by posters who are in no position to make the assumptions this entails.

Keyrect. the Vince Young fantasies are worth noting in terms of rumors. I like what I have seen of AJ Hawk during the NFL Network Combine coverage, but in terms of footbsll logic, the idea of the Bills either having their #8 pick sit on the bench behind TKO, Fletch, and the newly signed and extended Crowell (or the team sitting one of these multi-millionaires while he earns his bucks if Hawk starts) makes the option of drafting Hawk only slightly less of a fantasy than us drafting Vince Young.

The problem for us is the same one we had when folks accurately assessed Adams when he was first signed by the Bills that in essence he was a fat tub of goo. Where many of these whining fans (we are fans so we are entitled to whine all we want to, the team just wants to be sure that the media which helps us whine so they call sell commercials just spells the names right) failed to look beyond a fairly accurate assessment of Adams play (he clearly was aging and on the backside of his career and had a proven rep for going on vacation for as many as half the plays in a game. was also recognizing , Adams had one of the fastest first steps in the game, an immense body, and great anticipation so OCs had to assign two blockers to him for a play headed his way and opposing players also needed to prepare for each play as though this would not be one where he took time off, because if he was actually playing they would get embarassed. There were two keys to acquisition of Adams way back when: 1. He was a reasonably classified as a fat tub of goo, but even a fat tub of goo was a clear upgrade over the overmatched Edwards, an agin sub-Moran, or whatever else we had manning the DT post beside Phat Pat. He was a fat tub of goo but a clear upgrade in talent for us over what we had at his DT spot. 2. TD looked him in the eye and made a correct assessment that Sam Adams had finally grown up a bit and realized that he could no longer simply rely on his amazing first step as he did in the past, Adams proved not only to be an upgrade, but a great player for us who proved worthy of his Pro Bowl designation as numerous commentat noted that while the max you could expect from Sam was half a game before, we were getting 2/3 to 3/4 of a game out of him. Even better, TD got him to sign with us for less than what other teams were offering him. The reason the Bills cut him was that they too made the decision that they could do better than "an old, fat,slow and often injured and over paid iprima donna wth an attitude" to build our DL running a cover 2 around. However, do not make the mistake that simply because he is "an old, fat,slow and often injured and over paid iprima donna wth an attitude" that he would not be an upgrade over the folks like Edwards, Bannan, and Anderson who are on our roster. The difficulty in cutting Adams who is a prototype player in terms of his real world production and size and capabilities, is that this left us with two holes to fill at DT with no reasonable prospects on roster to do this. I think we cut him because his age and his unwillingness to think Bills first rather than me first as a player made him a good cut at a salary which had escalated with his good production (lousy in 05 like the rest of the D, but excellent as a Bill prior to last year's meltdown by the whole D). I rise to agree with you in your assessment of Adams, but also to say that simply to leave the assessment at that point really makes for an inaccurate read on the Bills and what they are doing. Adams actually played two positive roles for the Bills which would have made him a great player for us to have at DT in the cover 2. He is a penetrator and he is massive. Having cut him we really are setting up getting two players to fill these roles (Triplett is the penetrator and Ngata will be the massive stay at home run stopper who fortunately has the talent and speed to also penetrate from time to time). You are right that Adams is an old, fat,slow and often injured and over paid iprima donna wth an attitude. but we mostly need to be happy that Tripplett could be acquired and probably Ngata can be picked allowing us to replace Adams talents which even though well into decline were better than what we had when the season ended.

Part of the fun with the draft is that it is some uncertain. The real answer is who knows in terms of who are first choice at pick #8 is until we go on the clock (and in some cases the clock does not even bring this certainty as I think it was MN that completely flubbed in making their pick by 15 minutes a few years back). The main thing which is amusing though is that there are pieces of "intelligence" that drift across the local media or to folks on TSW which though seemingly taken as gospel by folks here (if it fits their preconceived notions) are just as likely pieces of disinformation being planted by the Bills braintrust in order to create a perceived lack of interest in folks they want, or to create a false sense of interest in players they have no interest in. Normally, I think the rule is really believe only half of what you see and even less of what you read (the studies which show the errors on the part of "eyewitnesses" to crimes are quite incredible). When it is draft time, I tghink the dictum switches to disbelieve most of what you read as teams are working hard to fool folks about their interests. The following are some of my favorite items which having been printed as a baseless supposition in some article, and then "confirmed" by KFFL aggregating and linking to the same article, these rumors suddenly become dead certain truths (usually because they correspond to the pre-existing hopes of some constnat or long (like myself) TSW poster. Below are my favortie rumors and comments on them and I am curious about how folks assess other ravings. Bunckley moving up to deserve pick #8- Today's rumor of choice which I suspect was started by the Bills themselves because the idea of them taking Ngata at #8 was beginning to look like such an obvious choice that they were running a serious risk that a team below them with a DT interest might trade into a slot above them and steal him away from the Bills. The Bunckley moving up to a legitimate Bills interest at #8 serves many purposes: A. It heightens Bunckley's value making it less likely that a team with a mid teens pick would trade up to get Ngata. Opponents can feel more secure that Bunckley is a good pick so let the Bills take Ngata who might even slip way down the board if the Bills do not take him. B. If we trade down and gt extra picks and Bunckley our fan base will fill even better about us passing on taking Ngata. Ngata a clearcut choice at #8- I think this one is actually closest to truth actually. I do not know where the talk is coming from that Ngata does not fit our scheme because outside of the general ramblings of Jauron that we are going cover 2 rather than zone bliz we really have no scheme yet. As far as it goes, there is some likelihood that quick mobile DL players will be our interest rather than Big Ted like run stopping mounds. However, the word is on Ngata that he actually has shown at the combine great quickness for a DL plaer and outstanding quickness for a player so massive, The kwy for the DL in the cover 2 is to create pressure on the QB and between the 4 sacks rung up by Triplett at DT last year, if Ngata has a good first step then inside pressure from either DT position becomes a possibility. Even better, as Marv has always said the game is about running and stopping the run first, While Bunkley is attractive becaise he is a strong guy who provides great pressure, you cannot teach size. Ngata has weight and takes up space and since he is mobile besides that he seems to be a logical Bills choice. Bills looking to trade JP,- Could be, but this rumor makes a lot more sense as misdirection by the Bills than an operating framwork. TD made a fatal flaw by giving the QB job to JP before he took the job on the field (even JP said this before last season). While JP showed little on the field to command the job, it would seem to be the same mistake for Marv to give up on him simply based on poor performance last year, The Bills seem set cap wise and talent wise to have a great competition between JP, KH, and Nall for the starting QB joband are virtually guranteed to have a quality #2. Add to this mix the developing Ochs and Woodbury (who if they perform as well as they can would seem to justify msking one of them a cheap disaster QB0 and the only rationale for making a move to get rid of JP would be someone making us a foolish trade offer (unlikely) or actually limitations on Marv's part being unable to deal withuncertainty at QB. I think this is a flat out rumor in hopes of creating a run on QB among the first few picks in the hopes that a D'Brick will drop down. Bills interested in AJ Hawk- This would seem to be utter silliness as this rookie #8 likely would be the 5th LB on the current depth chart and we would need to bith jettison Posey (likely though nit a done deal) and give up on TKO's recovery to have our #8 play from day one as we expect. Given this team's many needs picking Hawk who looks like a great LB makes little football sense. Bills interested in Cutler- He was certainly yesterday's surprise pick but given the depth at QB in this draft (and for us in particular our depth on our roster) this move would make little football sense for the Bills. Bills looking to trade up- Again, given our many needs on this team, reducing the number of picks we have seems to make little football sense. Particularly when we would likely have to trade up into the top 3 to get one of the breakout players we need and thus even getting GB's #5 would be a foolish trade-up. Bills looking to trade down- Again, this makes a lot of sense in this deep draft. At any rate, I am curious what other wild rumors attracted folks attention.

Given our many needs, it strikes me as a disaster for us to trade resources away to simply move up to #5 where the possible groundbreaking players at our need positions would probably be gone anyway. Trading up in this draft to move up 3 slots simply looks like a very bad move.

Money does always play a role in this sport that used to happen to be a business and now is a business which happens to be a sport. However, though Moulds is not worth the $10 million cap hit at his level of play, the costs are such that the Bills if necessary can in fact pay and hang onto Moulds. 1. Cash flow seems to be what this is all about from a business perspective and the Moulds base salary would diminish the Bills take in '06 but would come no where near to whipping it out. This payment would be an example of the cash over cap issue which is all the rage in discusiion. The cap hit for a huge Moulds base salary payment is already accounted for in the salary cap and even with we ae still several million below the cap and in the middle of the pack in terms of available cap space. While the Bills are under obvious pressure to reduce the Moulds hit, they are under no mandate to do this anytime soon. 2. Apparently there is a roster bonus of a mill due Moulds on June 1st (folks like BADOL maintain June 1st makes no difference anymore, but it is the use of this date for the payment of roster bonuses which does make a difference in terms of player movements even if there is less worry about allocating cap hits over future seasons as cap management has improved in NFL teams. The Bills MIGHT want to release Moulds by June 1st in order to avoid this roster bonus payment and MIGHT actually want to cut him prior to June 1st in order for the entire accelerated cap hit to occur in 2006 and not have it on the books in 2007 when we have a more serious shot at a run. 3. If the Bills wait until June 1st to cut Moulds (which they can do as they are not even mandated by the cash to cut him at all) it greatly disadvantages Moulds. Teams who want WRs may in fact take one from the paltry WR takings in this draft and Moulds will lose negotiating levereage (I think this is why they are in such an all fire hurray to move the process along). In order to provide the best market for him to cut a deal he needs to makes a deal now. It interests me that there have been some pretty strident comments about Moulds being gone that have come from his camp, but they all have come from his agent from what I have seen rather than him. While his agent speaks for him, there may be a little space for back-pedaling if they choose to do this. This is unlikely and we are a ways away fon this, but it is interesting Marv has left him room to do this with his consistent prononcements that they value Moulds as a Bill. Overall, no one (certainly including me) knows for sure and it will be interesting to see what develops, the major break that things are actually going our way would be if Moulds himself actually made some conciliatory statements or even changed agent personnel. One game we have seen played is that an agency (ala Jerry Maguire) has multiple people working for it. If Greg Johnson is playing the bad cop cop being strident uo front to flush potential game in the market and then if Moulds is not satisified with the offers he then "hires" a new agent (though the new agent works for the same firm as Greg Johnson), he can take a stance that he has been displeased with the tone his agent (Johnson) took and now he has hired a new guy or will enter the negotiations himself to form the best deal possible for all sides with his good friend Marv Levy. In a perfect likely fantasy world for the Bills, Marv has actually told Moulds they want to pay him as long planned a lower base salary than $7 million. Moulds says fine since massaging his cap hit is good for his team and teammates, but also says he will not take less than the market offers. The Bills have given him permission to survey the market and get the best deal he can. He will come back to the Bills within the 48 hours Johnson predicted and state what the Texans or some other team will give him. marv can confirm that amount or take Moulds at his word and offer to match the market if he chooses to keep Moulds a Bill. IMHO this would be the best outcome for us, but we will see.

All this sounds like Moulds's folks are working very hard on this and the Bills ain't saying nothing nor is there even any chatter among the meida folk plugged into OBD that something is afoot. Who knows exactly what this means but I suspect: 1. The Moulds folks are working hard to create a market for him but ultimately he is under contract to the Bills who are in no pressure to move him until at ealiest a million buck roster bonus (rumor of it reported by Clumpy whom is the best public source available on these things, though he is good and smart enough to flat out say that one can be the best public source and still be far from perfect knowing the exact deadlines and amounts of these roster bonuses). 2. The hard work evident by Greg Johnson and the Moulds folks means they want a trade, but ultimately they are not going to be the ones who pull the trigger so just because they say it is going to be done in 48 hours does not mean in any way that it will be. In fact it is an indicator that it will not be. 3. This is a three way negotiation for all with the new team and Moulds needing to settle on a new contract for him and the Bills and the new team needing to settle on a trade for him. In a perfect world, Moulds will present a number of teams to the Bills with whom he has worked out a deal for a contract, then the Buills will work out a trade with one of these potential partners. The contract part may in fact be worked out in 48 hours but the trade part will take more time. In other words if you plan to hold your breath until you turn blue or this is done, look forward to being a dark shade of purple just before you pass out.

I suspect he means that we would trade EM for a player or players who would contribute right away. I think many vets who have played the game before are of greater worth than a draft pick. TD estimated (even before MW flamed out) that its 50/50 success for even a 1st round pick. Judging from the fabulous effects of episodes such as Ryan Leaf, Mike Wiiliams and Joey Harrington, I can see why this theory from the hated one remains uncontroverted by any detailed case or proof beyond statement of the usual fact-free opinions. The draft is not a bad or worthless thing (to answer the question someone asked me above about where I stand on the draft). Good players have to come from somewhere and most of the good players get drafted. However, IMHO given the time it takes even many of the good ones to develop (EM had two goshawful years to start) and HOF players like Steve Young and Brett Favre (a future HOF player ) bad enough initially to be traded. Add in the increased speed of turnover in this league and the huge contracts slotted to players and the draft ranks a distance behind making quality FA pick-ups and geting great UDFAs in my judgment as critical to building a great team. The draft is important but is an important but subordinate method for team building. In fact, as far as the draft goes our fantasy league inspired psychosis gets us to focus on the first day when there is a good case to be made that first day picks are for show but it is the second day where a Tom Brady is found where the dough is really earned.

I'll begin to try to look at alternative selection ideas (though this post is little more than commentary on your offerings and does not include a better idea which it legitimately should if I am going to find fault with your choices) but: I see us with somewhat of a logjam issue at LB assuming TKO even half recovers. Having us switch to a 3-4 made sense as we already needed to be in the DT market anyway and this switch reduces our DT needs down. However, the acquisition of a penetrator like Triplett rather than a run stuffer in the Big Ted mode means we are committed to the 4-3. With TKO back at WLB, Fletcher at MLB and Crowell signed long term so that I do not see us sitting him on the bench after he filled in admirably for TKO, I see him moving to SLB and Posey either going bye-bye or sitting doiwn. I like Hawk as a player but do not see us using our #8 pick as a sub so picking Hawk is not in the cards for us IMHO. 2. I agree that there is a crying need for an SS after our release of Milloy, but Bing sounds like a great player whose strengths neither fit our D scheme or needs. We ar going to run a cover-2 as our base D scheme according to Jauron. The job of the safeties (both free and strong who will divide the field in half in a cover- 2) will be to play centerfielders and diagnose run/pass plays. We will need heavy consistent pressure from our DL and also flexibility and good diagnosis by our LBs who will be the primary hitters and run stuffers (unlike the zone blitz we ran under Gray/LeBeau where DEs Schobel and Denney were often called upon to pass cover and S Milloy pinched the line and hit like a run stuffer. Your write up sites Bing as a good replacement for Milloy given zone blitz responsibilities but specifically sites him as not being a natural cover guy and not having outstanding speed when the primary job of our safeties will be to cover alot of field (thus, Fewell as DC might use the experience he picked up in Jax to actually have us do more of a cover 3 rather than a cover 3 so our safeties will not have as much ground to cover. Huff would be a great safety for us because he has demonstrated he has the skills to both be a major hitter and a cover guy, but even if he drops to 8 I think we are more likely to take Ngota there because stopping the run is such a big need if he is available. 3. I like Scott as an OT despite the lack of success we have had with UT OL players. It is interesting that the same rap on him in your write up (an underachiever who did not always play up to his talent level) was essentially the undoing of fellow UT tacklr Mike Williams. He is a fellow whom the HC and scouts need to look in the eye to see if he has the right stuff and us outsiders will not know for sure until its too late. 4. Cofield is an interesting player and particularly after losing out on Ngata in your draft and waiting until round 3 to address this need you were attracted to him. However, particularly since we have gotten Triplett I think our other DT starter needs to be a run stopper rather than someone termed a tweener in your own write-up provided. At least that's my humble opinion and why I feel this way.

All I'm saying is that there is NO hard and fast rule which applies to every case when trying to judge Moulds value. Look at the Travis Henry example (again not to compare some fantasy value for TH as a player vs, some fantasy value for Moulds particularly since any assignment of a flat value to any one player is a fiction) in the last trade. TD did a great job by holding out on a trade until after the draft. He got a 2006 3rd for Henry instead of whatever was offered after 3 RBs went in the first round because the market for RBs was satisfied by the draft. Did he get hosed because he did not trade Travis for a second day choice we picked last year. Not in my view (and I suspect not in most folks view right now as the Bills team sucked so bad last year a 2nd day pick would have not made much of a difference and we are pleased to have 4 first picks this year). We're at least a year awau from seriously competing to go deep in the playoffs, and if my choice is for Moulds is between a 4th rounder this year or a 2nd or 1st rounder next year, I take next year's pick in a New York minute. I think one of the side effects of the interest in fantasy league play is that most fans over-value the draft anyway. I have seen no credible analysis that demonstrates TD was wrong when he estimated that even first round choices were 50/50 chances at best. I hope we move Moulds but actually I would love to see us get another player (difficult to do under salary cap constraints) because a vet who played before is easier to plan with than a draft choice. However, I do not think that the market folds up with this draft. In fact it becomes much clearer who wants and needs a player and it becomes much easier for teams to part with some pretty high picks because future choices cannot help a team this year at all. This calculus makes it impossible for a team that feels it can win it all this year to trade in return for a future pick, but it makes it actually much easier for a team like ours which is at least a year away to secure a high pick next year.

First, take all the Bills home games out of the mix for night games, as our franchise is a small market which has really profitted from a regional strategy where we actively work to draw fans and luxurt box business purchases from Rochester, Syracuse and even Albany. This tougher sell can be made for purchases targeted for folks to come 2-3 hours on Sunday morning, see the game, grab dinner and be home at a reasonable bedtime, but fuguddabouit if they are going to have to drive back after midnite on some evening. Of the remaining 8 games, the night game needs to fit into the schedule of team travel and other issues, the Bills are a concern only to the extent that this primetime game is one which draws Desperate Housewives like ratings to the extent that the game is attractive generally and even if it is not the bad team is from a large market where their fans watch the game anyway. It is virtually impossible that it makes any business sense to put the Bills on in the evening, probably even if they are playing well. This fan actually is quite happy to see our boys mostly playing at 1pm EST (and occaisionally at 4pm). Teams are disadvantaged when they are thrown off their rhythym even a little bit by a road trip. Add to that the addional disadvantage of a 4 hour (if they are lucky) air trip to the left coast sometimes. When you add to that them playing in the evening this likely road game will likely be a L and W/Ls are what it is all about to this fan. Rather than getting jobbed, I'm pretty happy than once again we escaped without a night game. Now if we can just get rid of the left coast life will be good.

I hate tp start yet another EM thread, but I keep seeing the same untruths on this particular issue pop up again and again so I want to try to focus on this particular issue. It strikes me that the flat out fact which folks seem to want to disagree with is that: Eric Moulds is worth different things to different teams. If you are a team you judge to a player away from an SB and that player is a WR who even though he is on the backside of his career his prescence will allow your other receiver to avoid double coverage or Moulds will now be able to play against single coverage he is worth you trading a very early pick for him. Alternately, if your team already has two good receivers, OR has limited cap room, or is several years away from winning, then Moulds is not even worth a 7th rounder to you. Another wrinkle to put in this is that the NFL used to be a sport that happened to be a business and now its a business that happens to be a sport. A team may have little chance to win, but if you can get a WR who has some great highlight reel catches in his career and you can market his prescence to put butts in the seats even though it is unlikely your team will go far, he may be worth trading for. Is Eric Moulds worth a first day draft choice to a team? My guess is probably yes. I have long had my eye on the Broncos. They have Pro Bowler Rod Smith as their go-to guy but Aashlie Leilie who has great speed does not scare me at #2. If this team were able to line-up Moulds with Smith with Lelie in 2 WR sets, this O would be very tough to deal with. Further, the Broncs have two #1s in April's draft so there is future value here to move for a player who helps my team now. In addition, if I am the Broncs, I am wondering whether I can simply get Moulds for no trade cost when he hits FA. However, he will go through waivers first with weaker teams having first dibs. At the $7 million base salary, this is a chunk for them, but with the cap # raised significantly do i want to pass this opportunity by? Maybe, maybe not, but this is why I express interest and talk to Moulds and see what he will agree to and I talk to the Bills and try to give as little to them as possioble. Moulds folks actually report there are as many as 8 teams interested in him and some like Philly who are looking to excite their fans and reinvigorate their team by filling the TO hole at WR may have a reason to get Moulds if they can negotiate the right price for him. If I am the Broncs or Philly (or maybe one of the other parties who allegedly have expressed interest, I am I willing to part with a 1st day pick for Moulds? Yeah quite easily I would give up a 3rd rounder for him as long as I can make a deal with him to lower his cap hit. If I am Detroit and I have two recent first rounders on my roster at WR then I would not trade any pick whatsoever for Moulds. He is not worth anything to me. Even if I am in the hunt for a WR I might see better ways to build my team than to give up a 1st for him (particularly if I am Philly) so i would not give up a 1st rounder for him. However, if folks believe that a pig will fly before they see a team trade any first day pick for him. I'm actually gluing wings on old Porky and putting him in a launcher as we speak. We may not get a first day pick but if we do not a big reason will be that Marv did not hang tough. I Moulds is due a million buck roster bonus when camp opens this summer, but until then the only reason to move him is whining fans and I hope Marv ignores us.

I hope like heck that Marv does not care one iota whether he looks like a push-over or not. Any business needs to have and cater to a general sense of what the customers want. However, we really will be doomed if he thinks that winning some popularity contest among the loudest fans over whether he has cajones or not is serving the customers. We need to win most of all. Winning will be done by making good deals that build the team and not by taking stands to merely avoid being considered a pushover.

The space left at WR by a Moulds departure is really the only reason that I think that Marv may actually hope that Moulds comes to his senses and makes a new deal to remain a Bill. This thought seems quite unlikely to me given the line in the sand drawn by Moulds' agent that he is done as a Bill. However, even though the Bills can probably replace Moulds well with a less than top dollar very good possession receiver (a Jurevicious type for example) even these backside of their career/big rep or second tier but adequate WRs are gone as UFAs. It too bad, as a Bills O with Evans as #1 and Moulds as #2, with Parrish in for 3 WR sets and competition between Reed, Aiken, Davis and Smith for the remaining slots would be a potent crew. However, it looks like now that at best we get the booby prize of a draft day choice for Moulds (I think we fans really over-value the draft as a team-building tool- good players have to come from somewhere so many ofthem are drafted, but the draft seems IMHO to be just another tool in the mix of team-building with FAs (like TKO and Fletcher), UDFAs (like Peters) and trades also being a big part of th mix). I think we may be looking at Evans as #1 and then a competition between Reed to recover his rookie form (unlikely) or Davis to step up (unlikely) or Parrish to develop quickly (unlikely also) as our #2 this year. As unlikely as it is for Moulds to come back, I think it may be our best option.

Another point which influenced the PP market was that AT owner had stupidly shot off his mouth an publicly promised to go out and get a top flight WR that Michael Vick deserved. Sincee PP was by far the most desirable WR in FA, wanted to go to AT near his childhood home and no other top flight WRs were even on the market in essence Blank would have been viewed by fans (and even worse potentially by Vick) of not living up to his word as an owner to spend what was necessary to bring a winner to AT. This may fly if you are a felon like John Rigas to make such pledges, but in essence Blank set the market on this one and TD skewered him by tagging PP.

I say this not because I believe Moulds will produce more on the field than the value of a 4th rounder (though I thnik he easily will depite being well into the backside of his career). I say this not because I do not realize that the potential he will be available for nothin's as an FA does not really hurt his trade value (it does though I think that any team besides Texas who banks on this does so at their own risk as my understanding a waived Moulds first goes through teams having a shot at picking up his current contract in reverse order of Ws. He is not worth a base salary payment on $7 million, but any team who picks him up for this does not owe him anu prorated bonus which raises his 06 Bills cap hit over 10 mill and since the cap has expanded letting him hit the market this way is a dangerous game if you want him. I say this because the likelihood of any negotiation is a compromise. It would seem to me the Bills should have a general requirement of a first day pick and then if you have to "settle" for a 4th do so, but if our ask is for a 4th we may be headed toward a compromise of a 5th or even a 6th. I hope this press report of an "NFL source" is simply incorrect.

The quote makes sense as part of the story, but the real answer is balance. Success comes not from some addiction to always paying a bunch for the players to get the best (ala Snyder) or from throwing nickels around like their manhole covers (Bill Bidwill). Success comes from being careful about your buys in general but making the right choices at the right time to go get and cultivate some key players. While it is easy to say nothing suceeds like success, it just happens to be true. One ofthe reasons TD was such a pain in the butt was that a significant number of times he seemed to do just the right thing in terms of getting players at very conservative costs who easily exceeded what we paid for them in output (TKO, Sam Adams and Fletcher for examples). He also did not fear paying a big buck for a takeout bid to avoid a bidding war for a definiite Bill needs such as Lawyer Milloy even though it meant overpaying him. He, Modrak and the team also get some props for reading the market exceedingly well and taking some unconventional steps that worked out around the whole WM/Peerless activity. However, despite a fairly provable record of a number of good economic and player assessment calls such as those listed above. He also did some fairly senseless things like extending Bledsoe and hiring HCs he felt he could control so they would never Bill Cowher him again that really killed this team.

I also would be quite pleased if this was our first day draft, but I there pick of Smith seems like a reach the Bills would not make. The switch to the cover 2 puts a bit more of a premium on a safety who can cover the field and receivers rather than a big hitter. Your first choice of Huff fills that need because he can do both, but if Smith and Harper are the safeties available for our 3rd pick. I think either party still leaves us with a big Milloy shaped hole. I like the pick pf Maxey with our second third rounder. it sounds like experience is one of his big needs and actually our CB depth after tagging Clements and with McGee on the other side with Greer and King backing them up should givr us the time to bring Maxey along with him learning some CB tricks from vet Troy Vincent. I think selection of Maxey would line us up for a few years at CB and prepare us for any FA losses at the spot.

The quote would have been more compelling if it had come from a GM with a history of going deep in the playoffs often and winning an SB occaisionally. While, I think this qupte is generally true. I don't think I would buy a book entitled the AZ Cardinals Secrets For Playing Winning Football. I think that Peterson actually weighs down this truth.

Actually, I guess I was not clear in writing about my ruminations. I do not think that the Bills roster is that good at this incomplete point the original poster asked us to assess. I do not think my assessment is all that positive. Yet, my assessment does try to take into account that this team ain't done yet in terms of major player moves (1. This a strong draft and we have four first day picks and the potential to get another. 2. June 1st was absolutely a critical date as recently as the Pats 1st SB run {perhaps a mere 4 seasons ago is ancient history for you youth of today, but even if this date has clearly diminished in import since then and may diminish in import more now with the salary cap rising, it is all still unclear because no beyond the signatories to the contracts know what bonuses are triggered on that date which was a significant one when current contracts were done as no one could predict whether there would be a new CBA or not. 3. The Bills prospects will be likely determined quite a bit by a decision which will likely occur post-draft and pre pre-season {a big reason I picked the June 1st date though I easily can be wrong +/- a month} about what happens with Moulds. I doubt he stays but if he does I think that alone will make this O a serious issue for opponents to deal with. Any prediction before the #2 WR situation gets settled is simply jaw {or photon} flapping as far as I can see. 4. I aggree with Marv that a lot of this game is about running and stopping the run. The OL sucks right now and it is hard for me (or you I would say) to figure out how to improve this. However, I did not see how NYG under JMac was going to get anything out of his OL that was critical to their SB run which was led by Porky Parker at the critical LT position and Dusty at the critical C position. Do you really know so much that you are dead lock certain to declare our OL situation dead? The DL situation is also very probelmatic as I noted. However, we need at least two good enough DTs and Triplett MAY in fact prove to be good enough and I am hopeful we will spend our 1st draft choice to get one {Ngota if those who looked him in the eye which you and I have not judge him good enough or my favorite trade down for an extra first day pick if they judge Bunkley good enough from looking him in the eye). To me the key point here is that all these predictions of the future strike me as little more than guesses. They are good guesses if you take the way too much time that I take on my posts or they are good guess if as much time is taken on a quite ornate analysis I remember you presenting a few years back. However, even my good as it gets for a fan guesses as some of my work and your work in past years were simply wrong, wrong, wrong. The L in NFL stands for the National Football Lotto from what I can see. The outcomes are simply too influenced by how the oddly shaped ball bounces and outstaniding acts like Phil Luckett blowing the call on a coin flip in overtime. I think anyone who pretends to judge their predictions as to their value whether they are right or wrong is simply fooling themselves. Analysis and intellect can tell one things about football, but the unpredictable occurence of injury and other random occurencences reduce the game to a Lotto like activity in terms of choosing an SB winner. It is just this uncertainty which makes the game interesting to watch from my perspective. If this was all so straight-forward to figure out as you sometimes suggest, i certainly would not be interested in anything so boring. It is actually its randomness around a framework which we can credily allege to understand which makes this interesting to me. So my apologies for appearing to take a stand here because (as anyone who has read my generally on the one hand but on the other hand posts over the years can tell you) it was not my intent at all to assert this is a good team on paper on 3/24. What I do assert is that it is still too early to draw a any real CONCLUSIONS about this team until training camp starts. Its not too early to be bummed over the occurences under Marv or to be psyched, but there are simply too many major episodes which will occur before a prediction should be called that instead of a guess. I think most simpletons can figure right now that it does not look good for our team. Thus I am fairly unimpressed by predictions of DOOM, and I think most folks are unimpressed. Right now, i think that the most appropriate expression of our doubts is pretty well summarized in if you don't play you can't win. The good news is that in order to root for the Bills right now, it is even cheaper than a Lotto ticket to do this. Guesses of doom are quite reasonable right now, but predictions of DOOM are little more than laughable.

I'd lose the analogy to hockey in the original post and the later analogy to baseball as the sports are so different that any analogy is tortured enough that it proves no point about who will the football game or build a credible team. However, one other good reason to lose the tortured analogy is that i think the argument and the points it makes about this team not being extraordinarily different from a team one reasonably thought would compete for the playoffs last year is true in an of itself. Particularly because the original post does choose to exist in some fantasy world where it claims its thesis is a dead lock certainty to happen (in fact no thesis, including my own or including some well researched pieces on TSW are anywhere near deadlock certainties. The outcomes of the season can easily rest on how the oddly shaped ball bounces or on whether the refs blow the call of the coin flip so no prediction is certain the NFL. This is why they play the game on Sunday and the outcomes of the game are not determined on paper) the thesis that the Bills may be closer to an appearance in the playoffs that is generally expected is a legitimate idea or thesis. It probably won't happen for us this year, but it conceivably happen if we make a bunch of good moves, if the ball bounces the right way from time to time and most of all if dumb luck smiles upon us a bit. worse to first is possible quickly in this league like never before. Few (virtually no one) predicted that a Jake Delhomme team would almost beat the Niners in the SB the year before last and few folks outside of the left coast had the Seahawks even making the playoff much less the SB last year. While i think it is unlikely the Bills will make the playoffs this year, I am pretty comfortable that we have made changes, laid a base and have major opportunities for improvement yet to go in the draft in April, with June 1st cuts and whether this team becomes a TEAM that it is still too early from my perspective to completely write off this group as a legitimate playoff contender (yet).

Probably not as here some word that in addition to being a malcontent similar to Moulds he is damaged goods. My first thought for such a player for player deal is to make it conditional in terms of how these players perform next year. If Moulds produces a specific amount of TDs or yardage then the Pack give the Bills more (I suspect Moulds will have a good year wherever he goes particularly with Favre gunslinging to him in his final year and I suspect even if healthy that Walker probably will produce a good but not great year for us as our #2 WR behind Evans who would still be the go-to guy. If its conditional upon performance. the cap #s work out and we hold out not give up additional picks and make this deal straight up it will be good to talk about. The key thing for Marv is to hang tough as a negotiator and not panic into making a deal right now as many fans would want.

Teams rarely get fair value for trades because teams much more rarely make trades in todays world than in the past. Whi;e there are examples of teams getting hosed in a fire sale, there are also examples like the one mentioned above of TH for a third and Peerless for a 1st where the team got far more value for the player than he ultimately turned out to be worth. The difference is that trade value is determined for the most part by supply and demand rather than a simplistic calculation of how much a player contributes on the field. In this particular case (which is a far better way of analysing a particular case than attempting to shoe horn it into some general rule for which there are huge exceptions to the "rule" you state) the thing to do is look at the particulars. The situation with Travis Henry bears much in common with the Eric Moulds case. In both cases you have: 1. A player who announced clearly he will not play again for the Bills (though the EM case is slightly less strident because his agent spoke for him allowing a little wriggle room) while Henry spoke for himself that he was pissed. 2. Both players seemed headed for a cut but were still under contract and Bills property. 3. The Bills have publicly consistently stated they want and value the player, but in both cases authorized them to seek a trade (a great move as the player does the GMs work and the Bills do not come hat in hand trying to attract trade interest. There are some real differences the biggest negatuve for us is the extraordinary cap hit Moulds 2006 contract has for us if we were to honot it. However, the interest for Moulds seems to be far higher than the interest in Henry as Moulds is a more worthwhile player and the best WR of the alternatives available. The Bills and Marv will have to hang tough on this one and be willing to take this beyond the draft and near Jumne if necessary, but this particular situation is set up for the Bills to trade EM for some very good value (perhaps a 2007 1st) if they hang tough.

KFBD I think you are judging Nall a bit too harshly because you are setting an incorrect standard for the Packers motivation in picking Rodgers. Did they choose him because they felt Nall was a bust? Not necessarily. Did they opick him because they were not secure in trusting him to replace Favre? Yep, i think so. These two conclusions are not the same thing. Just because you draft a highly touted QB as a replacement for Favre does not mean you feel your current #2 is a bust. It simply means they are not secure in the belief that a 5th round draft pick who never started an NFL game is going to be able to replace a future HOF QB. Would you be?

If one measures progress by the measure of big names or dead lock cinch starter replacements there clearly is little progress. However, though these finds/gets would be great, in reality they are not the ONLY measure of progress. Increased competition between credible candidates to get better and become starters is another form of progress and the Bills clearly have improved in this area. This of course depends not only upon the talent of the athletes (are the braintrust good assessment guys) but also upon the coaches being good teachers. My sense is that our scouting staff has been pretty good and though the top guys are gone much of the scouting department remains intact. Further, though Marv has no experience as a GM, he had a history of being a great delegator who allows people below him to use their skills and given the prescence of Modrak and Marv remaining plugged into the NFL as an observer for TV sports since we canned him, the assessment side looks credible at least/ Further, the new coaches have reps generally as working well with players and also experience like the retained JMac and OC and DC Fairchild and Fewell. No guatrantee here but no panic either. As far as positions looking at the roster and remembering who we had last year (though I do want to forget last year) my sense of the level of competion at this pre-draft/pre June 1st cuts point is: There is good news on the D in terms of competition, much work to be done on the O (though competition at the QB slot has me looking forward to pre-season, and a look at the ST personnel and performance (#1 in the league by most statistical rankings the last two years) makes me wonder how we were so bad when it came to W/L. (Actually the answer is clear to me as we neither stopped the run much at all and did not run consistently as the season wore on). Defense: LCB- Terrence McGee holds down this position firmly. He is more notable for his KR contributions but still marching toward being a lockdown corner, but if I am a QB given equal WR talent on boh sides of the filed I would rather challege Clements than McGee. No pressure to start at LCB from back-up Greer, butr Greer is a legit starter at Nickel so life is good at LCB. RCB- The tagging of Clements and a drop in the franchise $ for CBs underthe cap this year (as a couple of large base salaries caused it to leap up for one year) makes it virtually certain he will be a Bill one way or the other in 06. Either is fine with me as a fan since if he resigns we have a cap approrpoiate deal which gives us the room needed this year, If not, he has to perform in 06 for us as next year he hits FA again where we can tag him if he is good enough. King looks solid at back-up and Thomas used to be until his injury and we will see how he comes back. We are four solid at CB. FS- I think it is essentially the usual fan whining which has led to negative Vincent assessments, but leading the Bills in INTs and tying for the team lead with a couple of FR recoveries is quite fine from my perspective on a team where turnovers and INTs produced has been a recurring failing for years. It amazes me how folks seem to easily forget the past performance was worst merely because they want the future to be better. Having 4 solid at CB is good, but actually the fact that former Pro Bowl CB TV can cover if necessary provides great security. Even better our switch to a cover 2plays to his strength of play diagnosis based on experience as he plays a centerfielder role. He almost certainly has lost a step from his younger days, but he was so good before he can lose a lot and still be more than adequate at FS. Baker is a former starter at FS I feel secure about and Leonhard makes this spot competitive. SS- A D spot well in need of an upgrade. Argue if you wish about whether Wire should remain a Bill or not, but even if his rooters are right in advocating him staying it is not as starting SS where he has never been more than a liability. His back-up Bowen seems to have more to offer on ST than at SS and we need an acquisition here. WLB- IF TKO recovers life is great. If TKO comes back even a chunk of the way life is good. If TKO does not come back and we go with Crowell we will be sad but life will be good at this position. Even third stringer Stamer has something to offer MLB- London Fletcher has been a stud for us throughout his time as a Bill. He has been credited with more tackles than any other NFL player in the last 5 seasons combined. He has shown great football smarts as our D captain and a great motor. He has been quite willing to play ST and play a positive role there. I think that folks complaining about him getting credit for tackles made 5 yards downfield were simply dumb as a complaint about him because this happened because A: our DTs eali m LFs time here would get blocked and allow a runner to get 5 yards down the field and B: in the year LF surpassed Spielman for single season tackles our DL was so weak they could be handled by a single blocker and oftern Fletcher had to wade through a pulling guard to get that hit. I think the fact he never made the Pro Bowl shows that though this is a nice acknowledgement of the fact a player who gets it is probably good, the fact you don't get it does not mean you are bad or may not recognize you are one of the best at your position. However, we need some subs here on the depth chart. Ezekial is probably an ST contributor maxif LF goes down as he is getting older we will probably see Crowell at MLB. SLB- Most Bills fans have Posey as a goner. Still I think that he was a lot better than folks gave him credit for when he played a critical role on Ds that finished ranked high statistically in 03 and 04. Posey's flexibility as a run stopper or coverage guy was a key to the run blitz suceeding those two years. Yet, his play and a meltdown of the entire D last year leaves no reasonable defense for Posey's 05 play. For awhile it looked like we might switch back to a 3-4 where Posey excelled in his previous gid in TX but that was not the case and Posey is reasonably a goner if there is a plan to get a better player here (Hawk?) or if those inside feel he can step up his game and they are correct. In addition, if TKO comesback then a resigned Crowell plays somewhere and perhaps this is the spot. Haggan is a solid back-up and Hunter is probably a goner if Posey stays. Let the competition begin. RDE- Schobel is a very talented player IMHO. He logged a great number of sacks last year which is particularly impressive in that his zone blitz duties called for him to devote serious time and attention to coverage which his athleticism allowed him to do well. In a cover 2 there will be extra call for him to pressure the QB (which he tended to do with a great motor but we will see if he develops even better moves for immediate closure) and more call for him to be stout against the run. We will see and there is no back-up here really so additional RDE help for a rotation would be great. RDT- Anderson MAY develop and if he steps it up another notch we could be fine here, but i really doubt this and us with little more than good guys for the rotation here and no credible starter were the O would gameplan to avoid his skills rather than to exploit his weakenesses. LDT- Triplett is by far th biggest upgrade made by the Bills so far. I am fighting myself not to get too excited because while he obviously is good, he was not the central DL character on the Indy team. He will need to step up his play to be the player we want and actually require due to our DT problems. However, with his consistent play at DT and racking up 4 sacks last year and his immediate attraction to becoming a Bill, high hopes for him seem warranted. I actually love the fact that of his back-ups Lauvale Sape by far as the more standard name. LDE- The resigning of Denney is a good and interesting thing as he and Chris Kelsay are more or less co-starters at LDE. Neither has taken this position and grabbed it by the throat, but Kelsay has not finished developing yet and this year will have to be his breakout if he has one. Denney is probably not the pressure pass rusher the cover 2 needs (I actually think the zone blitz is a better D for him and could make use of his "Ted Hendricks" The Stork like qualities of massive wingspan and some athleticism. Denney was credible in run support playing inside so perhaps we see him as a DT we need for the rotation even if his highest and best use is in pass coverage. How we play this position and how much Kelsay steps up will be interesting. Offense: 1. QB- Clearly an upgrade in competition as while Nall has little NFL experience as a starter, he certainly is more than a credible threat to win the number two slot for the Bills after backing up the resilient Favre in DB til the Rodgers contract made him the disaster QB. Still the Pack move reflected a reasonable uncertainty but not a decision that Nall was not the Packer starter of the future. Sings point to them being sad hey lost him and him being a slight possibility to even creibly compete as our #1 as well as his having a good shot at being our number 2. 2. RB- Need more work here as not only has there been no upgrade in competition, but we actually need a credible #2 here as Shaud Williams is more credible as a #3. The good news is that this is a position that can be drafted and the player contribute quite quickly. In addition Gates did get some playing time last year and will push Williams though this says more about SW failings that Gates being a credible #2. 3. FB- Another position where unfortunately competition has not increased and starter Shelton disappointed and we need to upgrade. However, this is not a high profle position and good FBs like a Centers and a Gash were available as FAs in the past. 4. WR- The situation needs some careful work but actually I am not worried about it a lot. It will be a difficult drive but the Bills are in the driver's seat and have a number of advantages which if they play them correctly should result in a beneficial outcome for the team. Evans is the starter and his first two years of production and raw speed merit this nod. He needs to demonstrate an athleticism and ability to make circus catches and compete with a closely covering corner to win the ball, but all signs of sure hands and good route running with Moulds attracting attention indicates he may well be ready now or at most a year's experience away from being one of the best in the NFL. Parrish shows good potential to be a potent #3 giving us more speed in 3 WR sets and room to grow so we will see whether the return ability he has translates into solid RAC that may merit the #2 WR slot if he progresses over a good pose injury recovery rookie year. #2 WR is the issue. Moulds agent clearly says he does not want to return, and though we actually could afford to keep him at the enormous base salary he is entitled to under his current deal he is not worth that money at #2 WR. The Henry situation I think parallels many aspects of the current Moulds contract set-to. 1. Public posiioning has them never playing for the Bills again. 2. However, both were under contract and the Bills are not under contractual pressure to move him yet. 3. He had trade value, but his new team will have to reach a deal with him before any trade. 4. The Bills GM continues to say positive things about this player leaving the door open a crack for reconciliation and more important leveraging a deal for team which really wants him rather than risk him getting pick off by another team as an FA. However, what interests me is that while the negative comments came from Henry himself and he had cleaned out his locker and moved all of his gear out of town, all the strident very negative comments have come from Moulds agent and beyond the end of the year typical locker clean out I missed if Moulds has alreagy physically burned his bridges as TH did so there was no chance at reapproachment. In no way would I bank on this, but it interests me. Reed proved to be a potent ST guy and will get a chance to show he can recover his rookie form, but at best I see him as #4 on our roster with Moulds and #3 at best with him. Aiken actually has nailed down the final field slot and is a leader on ST making him good to sign. Now add Andre Davis who has at least pretenses at being #2 which I doubt he can do but suddenly there is competion for the #3 and $ slot which was not there before. Fast Freddy proved to be a good guy to hang onto but even without Moulds resigning he could be gone. We will need to fiddle with this but there will be a lot of tough competion for field time at #3 and #4 WE. The question is what do we do at #2. but we have options. TE- Perhaps the best case to bem made for addition by subtraction as starter Campbell coming off injury was easily worth the lowly 7th round pick traded to get him, but little else really. This also is one of the better cases too for how increased competition almopst certainly makes this team better and actually might offer some answers to the long term quandaries IF a player or players step up. There are at least two and actually three issues worth noting: 1. The pick-up of Royal at TE is interesting. Given that Gibbs wanted him back and he is a demonstrably solid blocking TE, if Fairchild and Jauron run the right system for this not to be confused wih Tony Gonzales TE the Bill upgraded the TE position on the cheap. Complaints about cheaness are legit, but probably justified as we have more important needs to spend on. 2. Everett was intriguing an well regarded but IR'ed last year. Maybe he will recover and prove to b e a mutant we want/need but maybe not. He is notable but no one a team should count on and we are not. 3. The depth at TE may be a noneissue for the Bills because we are pretty full at OK but not great players at TE, but the depth at TE in this draft is extraordinary and even if we do not go to this well, it means that other players at other positions we need may well be there. Things round out with well regarded but coming off injury Euhus and 2 others of limited talent yet who did make the roster so competition will be harsh at TE though the odd man out will be at #3 TE among #3 TE talents at best. RT- Oddly the best TE on this team may be Peters who seems to have locked down the RT slot as well. McFarland was a draftee which is good, who ended up being cut which is not good and no one else picked him up which is not good either for a young tackle, but he is off working on his trade in NFLE which is good but we will see how he does. We clearly need a solid back-up at tack;e and McFarland has not proven yet he is the man. RG- Questions here as well as starter Villarial is solid but may be starting to show some wear and tear of age. Back-up Geisinger is in the dictionary in the I section for inactive. Thord stringer Thomas is in the J section for journeyman. Like RT a position clearly in need of back-up upgrade. C- Suddenly there is competition here as Preston impressed enough as a rookie that folks credibly hoped he might step up to be a legit starter at C, but instead Melvin Fowler was signed as an FA and he has had several teams in his short career (a concenr) but played well when injuries to more highly regarded players like Jeff Faine forced him into a starting role where he acquitted himself fairly well. The Bills probably got him because his play merited a shot at starting (and thus starter money for this FA) but other teams which had the C role filled were not willing/able to give starter money to him. LG- While C is probably the least troubled OL position, LG is almost certainly the most troubled. The best thing one can say about this position is that some were impressed by how Anderson finally improved in his final 5 games to arguably be the best OL player on this team (though that would take some arguin IMHO). Among the (many) worst things which can be said though: 1. Any way you cut it the well-paid Anderson was a big disappointment last year. 2. There is zero competition for this slot with a questionable at best starter there. 3. Even if he is the best OL player now on the Bills this is not saying much at all. JMac has declared himself not be a miracle worker, however, this unit needs miracles at this point so the Bills better do some good acquisitions with what remains of the FA talent (adequate at best but adequate would be an upgrade for us at many OL positions). stumb;e across something on June 1st, or draft D'Brickashaw because there are few instant starters in the draft OL crew. Special Teams- P- Moorman- Legit Pro Bowler K- Lindell- Lost amidst a horrendous overall Bills season was that Lindell recovered from many fans wanting him cut after a shank against Pitts is that he probably deserved the nickname money last year as when he came on the field 3 points was virtually money in the bank. Now what are you gonna do for us in 2006? LOS- Schneck slid into the Pro Bowl with Moorman and probably actually deserved it. KR- McGee- probably the best second day pick that TD made and a defintie weapon on KR. PR- Talk about competition. Clements, Parrish, and fast freddy are all threats for big returns or to go all the way. In general, no competion needed at all the skill positions as the starters are legitimately among the best in the NFL. the one exception may be PR but here the competition is stiff so now wonder one should feel great about April. Coverage and returns- The major "problem" here is that ST stalwarts like Crowell have demonstrated they can actually step up to be position starters when called upon. IMHO, the notable ST talents are Haggan, Aiken, Stamer, Leonhard and probably Joe Burns. When one adds to this crew of consistent players some flashes from folks like Ezekial and King, it really is a credit to the scouts that such depth has been acquired. All of this even comes before in a pinch starter like London Fletcher have shown a willingness in the past to step into the breach and contribute. This crew is way too strong to make even worthwhile arguing about ST captain Wire's role. That's my semse of the Bills to date!