Pyrite Gal

I have no problems whatsoever not getting any nightgames as I think having all our games scheduled at 1pm helps build stability and helps us win. Its great having our home games scheduled at middday on Sunday because we draw fans regionally and given a two hour car trip for many fans night games are impossible for them to do. Its nice to be popular. but i would much rather win. Even if we win, I think that having a small TV market will always make us a second choice for a primetime game.

If Hawk fell to us at #8, I think the best bet for improving the Bills in terms of football would be to trade the pick to another team salivating to get him in exchange for a later first round choice and for additional first day choices to fill the holes we gave at DT, OL and SS. I think Hawk is a great player who should making a starting line-up at LB on Day One. However, if we did this, then it means that the Bills will have many millions of dollars sitting on our bench as we already TKO. Fletch and likely Crowell as LB starters. Even with this line-up it assumes we either cut Posey or are comfortable with him as a back-up. I do not see the Bills being able to afford or choosing to voluntarily have millions of dollars in salary not contribute to the team. Add into this problem that taking Hawk forces us to leave a gap that a 1st round choice can fill at DT, or SS, or OL and despite the sense I aggree with that Hawk is a great player his selection likely sets back our TEAM's development as the choice simply seeks out a great player. Perhaps you know something about TKO's recovery we do not know. Perhaps you are so future oriented that you are already looking for a replacement for Fletcher. Neither approach seems to be a good one for producing a winning football team and winning ethic. The best way for Hawk to help build this team into a TEAM that gets more Ws is to get traded for more resources.

My guess (and this is simply a guess) is that what interests me a great deal was how little support Moulds got from his fellow teammates which led up to his suspension. There certainly was enough conflict (a player vs. a coach, a player vs. an HC who suspended him) that one would think that the other players or at least some of them would have come to his defense (I mean for goshsakes, Trotter and some of the other Iggles even came to TO's defense). However, even with the the player head of the NFLPA Troy Vincent on his team there was nary a word of support for Moulds from his teammates. The theory was that the dispute between Moulds and the Bills was about the money (a good theory actually as when folks claim publicly in disputes that it is a matter of principle and not about the money it turns out often that it is about the money actually. However, in this case EM settled for a very affordable amount from the Texans that the Bills easily coulda, shoulda, or woulda settled for in order to have EM/Evans run the EM/PP game as our #1 and #2 (or should I say #2 and #1) WRs. My sense is that Moulds's teammates did not react well or the manner that served Moulds after he through his hissy fit on the sidelines when he was used as a decoy attracting Miami attention and allowing Evans/Losman to scored TDs all over the Fins in the 1st quarter. I suspect it did not help Moulds' case with his teammates that he through his fit complaiing about lack of use, when actually he was used quite well by the Bills to free up Evans and what Moulds was really cheesed about was not being used to score TDsd personally even though he was used quite well for the team to score TDS. I would not be shocked if almost all his teammates judged his whining to be personal what about me ism rather than legit complaints for the TEAMS benefit. It also did not help EM's case at all that the direct receiver of his rage was Tyke Tolbert, who in addition to also being an African-American (out went any ability for EM to play the race card or for teammates to even legitimately wonder if that was an issue here) is still with the team under Marv and seems to get along fine with the other WRs. Marv was on record a number of times singing Moulds' praises and while this may have been said so as not to undercut his trade value, if the stories of the Texans getting him for both chump change and a second day draft choice are tru, it may be that the issue here is that both EM and his teammates are done with each other.

I think your lead quot gets to a key point and one of the posts below responds to this key point that I think folks who are worried about this tend to ignore. Working in our financial system debt is not necessarily a bad thing. Many of us were brought up in a general framework that viewed life from the context of the general saying, "Neither a borrower, nor a lender be." There is some utility to this advice particularly if you have a large enough resource base to work from and there is a lot of utility to this advice that one of the quickest and most efficient ways to end a friendship is to borrow or loan someone cash that turns the friendship into a fiscal relationship. However, debt is simply a tool which can be used to perform certain acivities you wish to perform but do not have the accumulated cash on hand to make the initial purchase to perform these activities. Yet, in our free-market (well sorta) based society, there are tons of large captial holders who are quite willing to loan a person large amounts of capital to make an initial purchase as long as they can get assurances they are comfortable with that they will be paid back a consistent cashflow which pays off the loan. In essence they put their accumulated capital to work for them. They are quite happy to split the resulting stream of profits with you in exchange for you doing all the work. being compensated for that work reasonably with a chunk of the income, and that still leaving enough for you to pay off the loan. As far as it goes, this is why the NFL works. Under the CBA, a reality has been created where the NFL provides a quality product of great attractiveness and interest to you, me, and a good chunk of the general public. In exchange for the relative guarantee that the NFL composed of team owners and players are going to provide this compelling product that chunks of the buying public will watch on TV, in person, and have some affinity for, the TV networks are a large capital holder willing to pay massive amounts of $ to the NFL for the rights to show this product and sell commercials around it (these commercial sales in the large economic engine call America are where the capital ultimately comes from). The CBA which Ralph is whining about makes a lot of this even possible. It provides a labor peace between the developing partnship between the players and the team owners. Ultimately it is the players play that you and I are willing to pay our nickels to come see (perhaps you would pay your nickels to watch Dan Snyder and Ralph face off against each other every Sunday, but i would not, individual workers are replaceable certainly, but as a whole I am interested in paying to see the workers work and have no interest in paying to see th owners own). The CBA really turns an NFL team into a virtual printing press for money. The lionshare of the income is contractually guaranteed in TV contracts. In addition, a significant source of income is contractually and politically guaranteed in the massive subsidy which county government pays the Bills through owning, providing. bearing the costs for, but providing virtually total ownership and control over the venue for presenting the product. When the Bills originally cut the deal for what was ten Rich Stadium, there was no CBA and really no history of ongoing labor peace. Ralph got a great deal because he in essence got government to bear the costs and risks of venue ownership, while he got virtual total use of the presentation facility and he got a state of the art (at the time) venue out of the deal. However, the situation has changed, what was formerly a cost center (the stadium) and a risk (what if there was a work stoppage and thus no income to pay debt service) has actually become a profit center and an area of low risk under the CBA (worker costs are huge as the NFLPA has demanded a majority of the receipts as people are willing to pay to see them but an axe fight between Al Davis and Wellington mara while it would have been amusing for a brief moment has no real sustainable selling power). What Ralph is angling for with his current alarm bells seems mostly to be an effort to get the taxpayers to bear as much of the costs as possible to build a new presentation venue for the product while affording him as much income from this profit center as he can produce. Government can actually get what is in essence a far better rate on a loan than an independent business can. Whiile government cannot operate as efficiently as a good business can, businesses (even good ones) go away all the time, but as long as society exists government will not go away. (Governments also have an advantage over private businessess in terms of providing the same service more cheaply in that it does not need to make the profits private business must make. This economic advantage of being able to borrow money more cheaply than private business (usually in the form of municipal bonds) and not having the profit mark-up gets eaten up by the greater inefficiencies of government. A good private business is more efficient than government because the bad private businesses uisually go out of business (statistically roughly 50% of businesses incoporated do an elfoldo in the first 5 years). However, I do not want my library, my garbage collection, or my kids school to have a 50/50 chance of going out of business every 5 years thus, I am happy to accept inefficient operations in exchange for long tem consistency. I just need to do a little work on the government run things I care about to lobby them into better performance without the threat of closure but this is another broader discussion. At any rate, NFL teams have as much of a gurantee of cost controls which can be made in our society and because of staulity there is also as much of a gurantee of a large income stream. This is a perfect recipe for having numerous large capital holders be quite happy to loan you large amounts of initial cash to build a venue to sell your product. The debt load on any new owner (even if he had the cash it makes more sense to borrow someone else's money actually) is one which can be well managed as long as the income streams are maintained. The almost 20 years of labor peace under the CBA, and this last showdown amongst the team owners shows that it is a pretty good bet that the income stream can also be continued as long as the workers and the team owners can aggree to a reasonable split of the income stream. As folks clearly would pay to see the workers and would not pay to see the owners, but the workers are individuals and this is alot about management of a collective a 59.5%-40.5% split seems more than fair. If this is to weird for a normal person to relate to, think about this in terms of why it make fiscal sense to borrow the money and go into heavy debt service. The vast majority of American families now own their home. Would it make more sense for you to do the reasonable not a borrower be and instead of getting a mortgage to borrow money, instead you pay for it as you go based on your ability to do work and gain assets. I had enough money to buy a kitchen so I can eat and I had enough to afford a small bedroom so I canm sleep, but I have hopes to buy a bigger bedroom and maybe I will even by a toilet so I do not have to hold it for years. Instead, it makes more sense to go into debt and buy an entire house which you work to payoff the debt service. A new Bills owner has such a large vurtually guaranteed income stream from the TV contracts and other historically doable income streams like ticket sales and Zubazz pants and in addition has very defined and controllable costs primarily in the form of payments to workers whose salaries are defined by the cap that debt service is easily a manageable issue. What Ralph is doing as best as I can tell is bellying up to the taxpayer bar to get government which can borrow money at a better rate than a private business and be a partner that does not have to make a profit provide as many benwfits to him as possible. As the total amount of costs here (a $40 million annual operating cost for the Bills out of over a billion dollars in annual county expenditures) are relatively small, I fully support Ralph sticking up the taxpayers here as I follow (at relartively low charge to me personally) the team and I suspect that if the political deal will be to get the new stadium built in Buffalo, I will and my town will benefit from soaling NYS taxpayers.

I see no economic reason why Ralph and the Bills should not be able to compete with the richer teams if ge chooses to do what's necessary to equalize things. The Bills and he are certainly at a disadvantage in terms of cash to the richer teams (if this is a surprise to him then welcome to the real world where us normal folk are always at a significiant disadvantage to riich for items where money is helpful to have). However, the fact remains that the NFL operates with an almost classicly communistic more level playing field of the salary cap which essentially provides most teams with the same budget. Its true that the owner generated salary cap has a variety of rules which provides an advantage to the richer teams which has come to be known as the amount of cash over the cap which richer teams spend annually. However: 1. The cash over cap aspect is available equally to all teams it is merely the richer teams which choose to take advantage of it consistently. 2. The salary cap essentially does provide a level playing field and the amount of cash over cap spending provides merely a marginal (I haven't calculated the exact number but in the worst case (the Skins) I would be shocked if their cash over cap spending exceeds more than 10% of the cap total in their worst years. Yeams routinely dod not max out their cap expenditures each year magnifying this difference. 3. The NFL has provided some fiscal handouts to the Bills and small market team which goes toward balancing this cash over cap issue. The Bills can either pocket this handout or actually can spend it or improve their cashflow if they feel less competitive. 4. Even without the greater income which larger market teams can access to allow them to spend cash over cap its not like the Bills or Ralph are incapable of getting their hands on cash. The Bills might need to use their cash cow of a team to take out loans from banks to get immediate cash to allow their cash flow to spend cash over the cap today. While this sacrifice would cut log term proftis, they have an obvious ability to get the best economic rates for loans they want in order to generate immediate cash. 5. Even though such fiscal maneuvers would reduce the Bills profits from outlandish benefits to more normal income levels, it actually is doubtful they need to perform this "sacrifice" to be competitive. Judging by the record of the Deadskins over the past decade, it is unclear to what degree having the heightened revenues of this large market team makes in terms of winning on the field. In addition, the Bills record of failing to make the playoffs the last 5 years does not seem to be the fault of this team being too poor and unable to attract FAs such as TKO, NFLPA Pres Troy Vincent or even get Larry Triplett to visit and decide he need look no further. This whole small market vs. large market issue seems to be a total red herring in terms of the competitiveness of this team and it an RWS whinining about the new CBA which like the old CBA promises to bring the NFL a labor peace which is the basis of the NFL raking in unprecedented dollars sound mostly like an excise by the Bills to stick up MYS taxpayers for a stadium and other corporate welfare for the team. As a Bills fan and a WNY I totally support Ralph in extorting these bucks from NYS taxpayers as football fans and WNY should gain the benefits of the Bills stealing this money, I just wish he would stick 'em up and not whine so much about it.

You might want to go check your law books again. One would have to quite the fool as best as I can tell (layman's legal knowledge backed by dealing professionally with a bunch of nont-fot profit organizations who use estate planning as a major income development tool buttressed with a bit of osmotic trust and estates knowledge from having a father-in-law who is a major league trust and estates lawyer) to not be able to park a huge chunk of assets and protect them from Uncle Sam. The GOP certainly loves using what they call "the death tax" as a great political tool. However, the law has changed a lot over the last decade so that a smart lawyer can make great use of tools like irrevocab;e trusts, corporate ownership, off-setting gifts and losses to insulate a lot of financial holdings from taxes. Perhaps Ralph is so filthy rich that there is not way for him to avoid some substantial hit (though if he falls in the league of the Warren Buffets and other amazingly wealthy folks they tend to be in favor of heft estate taxes as they seem to feel that leaving such massive wealth to future generations with them having done nothing but be born to earn them really blunts personal inititative). However, even personal wealth is so large, it also creates an ability to hire smart lawyers who can move the assets around to shield the most vulnerable holdings from attack by the government. I Ralph really wanted to be cool, he could commit the Bills as a corporation to any number of fiscal commitments such as long-term leases of stadium leases wioth such substantial penalties for leaving that it would lock a team in court for years trying to escape town or give substantial, partnership, or majority control of moving decisions to local government and local interest that cannot or will not leave. Instead, as best I can tell, Ralph has the right as an American to do whatever he wants or chooses not to do with his assets and no one can tell him otherwise. Ralphie does seem to have a heartfelt desire to keep the Bills here while he is a live, but he also seems to have a standard American inidvidualistic sense of driving to maximize the financial worth of his assets (as is his right as an American) and as such he either will not tip his hand as having taken such actions which will diminish the book worth of this asset while he is still alive like announcing he has taken action which encumbers its movement.

What changed was that under both the first cap, its first major revision by the NFL/NFLPA which occured around 2001, and the current revision agreed by these two partners last month, the NFL/NFLPA take from the TV networks went way way up. By agreement beween the team owners and players as the take from the nets went up so to did the salary cap. Under the new CBA the designated gross from which the numbers you site are calculated was shifted from a designated set to total revenues. Ralph and the NFL merely have taken on the added burden of sharing the accumulated wealth more completely and fairly with their partners the players. Why did Tags argue for agreement to a deal which provided players with 59.5% of the total gross receipts and why did the vast vast vast majority of NFL owners agree to accept this deal? They agreed because Ralph and the other team owners would get to split 40.5% of more money than Ralph ever probably even dreamed he would get from his original 10K investment. My sense is that RWS was very strategic in voting against this deal which will continue to deliver him a huge return based on his original investment and annual return on his defined and controlled costs of doing businesss (the salary cap limitation defines how much will be paid as salaries which is the largest cost of doing business and county government owns the stadium which is the largest cost of presenting his product). By voting against the deal and complaining and whining that the CBA (which guarantees a continuation for him of huge profits for the length of the agreement) threatens the viability of the franchise, it allows him to make a strong case he will likely win to belly up to the taxpayer bar and shift any additional costs to the public and get them to fund a new venue for him to rake in profits.

The threat to move is certainly real, because if the threat was not real it would not be a credible threat. However, the line and description of economics in the NFL is so disingenious and ignores such important parts of reality that the entire piece smacks of a nice attempt to raise and use his leverage to get a load of corporate welfare from NYS, Erie County and Buffalo thst I am quite comfotable this is driven by Ralph actally asserting this leverage to get a great deal. In fact, the timing of when he is going to force NYS politicians like Eliot Spitzer, Weld and Faso who are running for governor in November into making a whole bunch of promises to deliver a stadium and corporate welfare to the Bills is so ham-handed it is positively Machiavellian. Don't get me wrong since this welfare will benefit my football team and potentially my City and region at a cost which will be distributed across all NYS taxpayers I am actually quite in favor of this corporate welfare. In addition, though my support is meaningless but quite selfish, even if it eqauls the $1.2 billion failed NYC stadium porposal this really is a piddling amount of money comapred to the even larger corporate welfare payouts to the pharmaceutical companies and other cash beneficiaries from the stupid manner we provide health care. However, I have few doubts that rather than senility about the CBA, Ralph fully recognizes that he can use this "crisis" as leverage top extort even huger amounts of income into his personal wallet and into the wallets of his new partners the NFLPA. You go Ralph! Suck some dollars out from taxpayers for out team!

Yes it definetely is sticking it to NTS taxpayers. Thise fools failed , and nuw Ralpg is going to try to do his version of the same thing and stick it to NYS taxpayers. Do you think that just because the NY Jets and their buddies were trying to stick up the taxpayers that it means Ralph is not trying to stick up the taxpayers? As one whose team will benefit if he pulls off this bid for corporate welfare, I hope he sicceeds.

Look, if someone says to you that the Bills are not financially viable, feel free to tell that person that they simply do not understand the economics here or that if they do then they are simply lying. The Bills are not now, nor have they ever been RELATIVELY as well to do as other NFL markets. This was the case when Ralph was forced to take the Buffalo franchise of the old AFL because a franchise in his hometwon of Detroit was not available. He settled for Buffalo over franchises in other markets as the better markets were already taken. The RELATIVELY less viability of the Biffalo franchise was the case then and is the case now. However, due to the cooperation fostered within the CBA, since its inception in the early 90s and more equitablle version recently agreed to, the Buffalo Bills and all NFL franchises are among the lowest risk most economically viable ownership opportunties in American business. All NFL franchises are guaranteed by contract with the TV networks and though some long-lived and well tryed operations amd emormous income stream. Further, contractual aggreement with the primary cost (player salaries) with the NFLPA, and in the Bills case through a contract with Erie County which owns the costs of stadium ownership the liability stream is defined and controlled. If you define economic viability in a relative fashion as whether the Bills can make more money elsewhere, the answer is yes. However, if one defines economic viability based on reality and whether the assets and income involved outpace liabilities, the Bills are clearly not simply a "going conern" but by any rational measure one of the most economically viable enterprises in the country.

It really is fascinating to watch RWS and the Bills financially wheel and deal with NYS and within the context of the CBA. As best as I can tell, Ralph is selling the impression that he and the poor little Bills are getting raped by the stupid new CBA deal which is so bad for smaller market franchises like the Bills it is simply a question as to whether we can be a viable economic concern here in WNY. This message seems pretty clearly reflected in quotes such as this one from the Bills own website: " The high cost of the new collective bargaining agreement between the NFL and its players represents a substantial burden to small market teams." This is cool as this is how negotiating is done in our US system under the pseudo-free market within which the team owners with their growing partnership with the players restrain trade (in a fairly un-American way) and have created the next best thing to a printing press for making money at a very low risk. I'd really feel almost sorry for Ralphie if I was not laughing so hard at the false economic impression he and the Bills seem to be selling and how much the media looks at this picture with zero real inquistiveness and how much elected officials seem to lap up this economic tripe. Make no mistake about it, there is a real and present RELATIVE economic risk that the Bills might fly the coop from Buffalo and instead head off to other economic markets where an even richer vein of nickels can be tapped. However, the false impression they are giving and allowing folks to buy into which is based in what I think is pretty much a flat out false impression or lie they are using to describe the Bills economic situation is that there is some ABSOLUTE or REAL economic viability threat to the Bills franchise. The actual situation regarding moving or not moving the franchise is that: On One Hand- The team would operate as a franchise with a contractually guranteed revenue stream which far exceeds a contractually almost completely guaranteed set of liabilities where the income pool far exceeds the liabiity pool. Or On the Other Hand- The team could move and the guaranteed income stream would be supplemented by additional contractual guarantees and easily accessible opportunities to rake in even more cash. The bottomline is that while day-to-day business is certainly tougher for a Ralph Wilson than it is for Dan Snyder, in the real world this means that it is an incredibly low-risk method of making tons and goo-gahs of money for Snyder while it is merely an incredibly low-risk method of making tons and a mere one goo (rather than multiple goo-gahs) of money on Ralph's part. Quite frankly I wouldn't mind at all that Ralph is sounding the alarm bells and extorting more corporate welfar from the state government instead of just my county government. WNY gets the benefit while the costs are spread across the entire state. However, it does get a bit tiring and silly to see him and the Bills doing this by leaving the impression of poverty because they "struggle" along in a small market and it is simply incorrect. wrong, and false for him to blame his poverty on being taken advantage of by an unfair CBA. Look you poor old fool. I think that you (Ralph) fully recognize that the new CBA merely replaces a small group of NFL team owners taking every nickel they could bet out of the NFL that they could for 40 years or so while paying the lowest wages you could to the players. When the NFL team owners over played their hand and so badly kicked the butts of the players in the mid-80s that the NFLPA was so weakened they actually threatened the owners with the nuclear option of closing down the NFLPA and thus force the owners to negotiate with individual players in a true free market. Rather than actually compete with each other, the team owners instead agreed to a CBA with the NFLPA where the two parties formed a partnership to restrain trade through activities like the NFL draft and activities such as the lawsuit against Maurice Clarett which restrained Americans below the age of 18 from entering the free market and instead forced them to go to college to be trained to play in the BNFL (a beat economic play actually because almost all other major sports must pay for a minor league system. Bt restraining trade amongst college age players, the NFL has shiftd this cost to the colleges and taxpayers. At any rate, what Ralph appears to be doing here is several things: 1. He is setting up NYS to pay the lionshare of the costs to build a new stadium for the Bills. These costs will be borne in a manner similar that which was propsoed for the failed effort to build a new stadium in Manhattan for the Jets. 2. He is setting this up for a bidding war to be waged during the nest governors race. Both Spitzer and whomever wins the GOP nominatuion will be required to make commitments to pay for a new Bills stadium if they want WNY votes for governor. As a Bills fan I am quite supportive of Ralph sticking NYS up for the cost of a stadium he will make outrageous profits from. However, I do find it a bit annoying with his poverty act when he is raking in money hand over fist (and his new bid is to also be supported in raking it in with his feet also) as a justiciation for this. Really the amounts of money which will paid out for the Bills as corporate welfare are really small cost to NYS taxpayers compared to real costs like the inefficient manner with which we do health care spending compared to the almgamation of costs and fairly broad health consumer satisfaction of single payer systems like the Canadian program. Even better, this region gets the benefit of this corporate welfare to the Bills with our team, and also intelligent folks like Byron Brown do seem to recognize the game being played here and likely will push to see this corporate welfare payment be used to benefit the City of Buffalo. However, the poor act being pulled off by Ralph seems pretty disingenious to anyone thinking this through economically. He is pretending to be a Alzheimer's fuddy duddy (if he is, then this pliable fool is being directed by some smart folks), but overall he seems to be setting things up nicely to stick up NYS taxpayers.

My understanding is that the June 1st rule is no where near as important as it was in the past because teams got better at managing the cap and also began to agree to new contract language which forced action well before the June 1st cut date which caused either new deals to be arranged between players and teams before that date. In the early days of cap management, June 1st marked the date when the cap was calculated for the upcoming season and moves made after that date were applied to the next year's cap. Thus a team would hold off to cut a player after the June 1st date, and rather than his remaining bonus accelerating into the current cap year, only one year would be allocated as per normal and the remaining bonus would be accelerated into the next year's cap when the player was cut. Probably June of 2001 was the last time we saw this be a massive date for movement and it proved to be a pivotal one in the NFL as roughly a third of the Pats final roster in the year of their first SB run were signed after the June 1st cuts. A new world was created as seen in the contract of Ruben Brown who when cut by the Bills in March of 2004 actually was chopped well before the June 1st date because his contract called for the team to make a couple of million $ roster payment to him. Even though cutting him this early resulted in a wash financially for the Bills as his accelerated bonus could not be distributed fully, they decided to go in another direction anywat with a player who had publicly berated the Bills coaches (and actually desersevedly so since it was Kwvin Killdrive he took on). Yet, thoug clearly June 1st ain't what it used to be, I think many legends in their own minds on this board are a little to quick to declare this just another date in terms of league activity. Many contracts are agreed to by teams and players with the first of the month being red letter dates for actions like the mandated payment of roster bonuses which force action. Paarticularly in this year when teams knew some type of brave new world would be occuring of either a new lease on life when the CBA was extended as it was or pitched battle between former partners team owners and players if they had failed to reach agreement, contracts were negotiated and set with these posibililities in mind. No one knew for sure and there were different schools of thought as how to play the timing game depending upon the uncertainties of reality. No one really knows for sure what we may find happening on June 1st as the language in those contracts kicks in within the actual new world created. As we saw with the Moulds contract, depending upon other factors like the relationship between a particular player and his team, the cap is still relevant in particular cases and I would not be shocked to see a few interesting players hit the market on June st though it will be nothing like the critical June 1st date at the turn of the century.

Not only are we getting little in exchange for Moulds in trade, but the negotiations seem to be going in the wrong direction (what started as a 4th for Moulds is now rumored to be a fifth). I know some folks are maintaining that his contract cost lessens his trade value, and though I thought they misread the market because it was obvious he would need to rework his contract with his new team, I will be mondo disappointed if all we get for him is a second day pick. Even if the was actually all the market allowed, Marv is foolish if he takes this offer at this point rather than holding out until closer to the draft to see what some other team might offer. All I can say is that the press reports had simply better be wron (it wouldn;t be the first time) and that the odd hold up is because there is some odd new dealneing checked out by the league and with other players which is why this deal ain;t been officially announced. My personal fantasy favorite is that the Texans are throwing in another WR which would explain why they are waiting as another player needs to be informed and some negotiating with the Bills is taking place (Corey Bradford anyone?) Or maybe there is some sort of additional contingency of a 2007 picj being added to the deal as a contingency should Moulds perform well for the Texans. At any rate the market should yield more than a 5th tis year, or if not Marv should be holding off and looking for other offers.

I hope you are raising your hand to indicate sarcasm. If not, people may wonder what you know wbout football, but if you made this statement seriously you have removed any doubt.

Thanks for the thoughts JDG. In terms reloading for the future, there is at least some case to be made for us having needs at every single position, however, all this future thinking runs squarely into the limitation that reality demands we do something right now. Reloading, rebuilding, and restocking for the future are clearly things which would be done in a perfect world and clearly justify BPA thinking, but in reality (that pesky thing): 1. As one TSW poster noted, he agrees the Bills will need a season or two before they can seriouly compete, but he is going to buy tickets this year and investments which take into account realities like Fletch hitting FA, getting older, and likely needing replacing as soon as the 07 season are simply not reasonable investments for this business and even this football team to make in the first round. 2. 5 years of not making the playoffs create a powerful demand on this business to really compete for the playoffs this year and RWS's age creates a powerful demand on Marv to compete for the playoff's this year even if doing so seriously would mean taking some really bad risks that probably will not work out. I wouldn't take my position by position anaiysis as much more than a guess. One reason I think that folks assume way too much if they claim Ngota does not fit the Bills scheme, is because until they play the Bills really have no scheme beyond a general commitment to a cover-2 rather than a zone blitz. While my thoughts are based on a general sense that certain moves simply make no sense given salary cap and other realities (for example, drafting of a 1st round QB gives him a slotted contract which forces the Bills to cut one of the 3 vet QBs under contract, and given that we already have 2 developmental QBs under contract, it is simply impossible contractually for us to draft. Young, Cutler or Leinart if they drop to us) it thweoretically is possible for the Bills to take a DE like Mario if he dropped to us. Of course while this is theoretically even remotely doable (unlike drafting a QB in the first which is not even remotely rational) it would result in 'ol single-wing Levy" coming back top have us run a cover 2 with the new innovation of a 5-2 D scheme which lines up Mario, Schobel, a re-inked Denney, Triplett, and Kelsay as our DL. Its because I see these implications as so unlikely that I pooh-pooh us taking Mario. Again my position analysis defined by football reality is: DE- Having resigned Schobel and Denney and this really being a make-or break year for Kelsay where he will achieve Schobel status or not the chances of us getting a DE on the first day of the draft are pretty small. Plan A- We're set at DE. Plan B- we're set at DE DT- A clear need for a starter at RDT as Tim Anderson is listed first on the depth chart and few view him as meriting this designation. Given Marv's consistent commitment to the import of running/stopping the run, this player yet to be acquired is almost certain to be a run stopper who will bear major responsibility for this task. Even if we judge Ngota as being able to do this, even this commitment would leave us at a huge risk here due to injury and no real run stopper back-up. Its hard for me to see us passing on him when even if w take him we are still in danger, not taking him essentially converts our risk of danger into a reality of danger. The second best option for meeting the Marv stop the run mandate would be taking Bunkley, but the risk is still there with merely a tremendous showing of belief in the skills in assessing Bunkley as why this would work. We'll see. Plan A- Ngota Plan B- Bunkley if Ngota is taken but likely would only occur if someone trades up above us for Ngota and that is unlikely. WLB- Signs point to no major issues so far for TKO rehab. Even if he does not recover fully, 75% of TKO is better than 100% of avilable alternatives Plan A- TKO, Plan B- Crowell second on depth chart but he likely starts at SLB, but Stamer is resigned so we are set here. MLB- Fletch has led NFL in credited tackles the last 5 years and led Bills in tackles last year. Certainly an aging player who plays a lot based on his motor, but lost steps due to age are somewhat compensated for with fewer steps needed due to experience. He will not last forever (no one does) but no recurring injury or imminent signs of a sudden downturn. Plan A- set with Fletch, Plan B- An issue as Ezekial is second on the depth chart and cannot be expected to step in. However, in 05 preseason Crowell filled in nicely at MLB and he was actually resigned more with a thought that Fletch will not last forever than with a demand he take over the SLB slot. SLB- Crowell demonstrated he is a starting LB talent last year when he shifted from back-up MLB where he was slated to fill in admirably for an injured TKO. He will be asked to make the shift to the Sam spot last year and given he made the shift to the Will spot from back-up MLB last year this may happen. Posey really disappointed last year, bu then almost all Bills D players disappointed last year. He got a lot of grief from fans for being a bad player in 03 and 04 also, but these assessments were almost certainly the usual whining and bleating of fans as these Ds ranked #5 and #2 in the league statistically with Posey playing lots of minutes and a lead role. Even though Bills watchers such as Simon had lots of grief to give Posey about fairly technical complaints about body angle, closure on tackles and coverage aggressiveness they could not supply real examples from 03 and 04 about how these poor approaches resulted in Posey being victimized for large gains, TDs or missed plays. Since Posey's play really sucked last year like much of the D he clearly is at risk of losing his SLB starter job and MAYBE even his spot on the team. However, his 1.75 mill salary is easily third among the LBs (and not even outrageously higher than that of the recently extended Crowell. If anything, it is the play of the also recently extended Haggan who backs him up which places him at risk of being cut if Crowell takes the Sam job. Plan A- Crowell/Posey Plan B- The one who gets beat out or Haggan. The bottomline for those attracted to Hawk who really looks like a great one is that this team has 4 recent proficient NFL starters under contract at very doable cap hits for 3 LB positions (Fletch, TKO, Crowell, Posey who folks legitimately can argue about his proficiency in 05 but he did play a loto of SLB for very good Bills D in 03 and 04). In addition, the have recently signed extensions for 2 back-ups (Haggan and Stamer. That is 6 players for 6 LB starter and back-up positions. Any case for drafting Hawk obviously starts with him being a likely potential very good to maybe great player. However, the cost of getting this potential benefit is the certainty that we continue large gaps at DT and OL, and that added to the slotted #8 costs for Hawk are that the Bills will sit millions on their bench this year and actually subsidize another team millions when we cut a recent NFL starter and producer at LB. We can certainly draft Hawk if he driops to us, but even if he played as well or even better than it looks he will play at LB, it likely would set back the progress of this team in getting more Ws by a good year or more as forwent using the first rounder on other more pressing needs and we had to absorb the costs of having spent cap money which can not contribute to the team while sitting on the bench. RCB- We tagged NC and he is backed up by King who played well enough to get some PT as a rookie. Thomas is a post injury development we do not count on but hope recovers well. Plan A- NC, Plan B- King, Plan C- Thomas but really Vincent in a pinch LCB- McGee is definite starter with Greer as baack-up and likely nickel (though King will compete). Plan A- McGee, Plan B- Greer, plan C- Vincent in a pinch. There really are no needs at CB as we plan to increase cap management by working a deal with NC and worse comes to worse he should even be taggable again for 07 if need be. SS- There is a definite gap here as the current starter is the unacceptable as starting SS Coy Wire. The needs we have at DT, SS, and multiple starting OL positions is why I think the description of us having starting positions for which there is no answer on the current roster is why I am more than comfortable with the phrase multiple needs. We also have needs for a starter at QB and at TE, but in these cases i think we do have reasonable potential answers on the current roster (Nall, KH, JP at QB and Everett and maybe Euhus at TE) so given our multiple needs with no credible answer at other positions it why i think we likely will not simply go BPA. When it comes to other positions such as LB where we in fact have a bunch of credible starting choices the idea of picking a BPA there would likely hurt building the best teram. Plan A- draftee Huff or waiver wire. Plan B- Bown though he more likely will contribute as a back-up and on ST. FS- The complaints about Vincent strike me as the height of fan bleating and whining. The idea that drafting Huff allows one to cut Vincent should nspire nothing short of laughter. On a team which got too few turnovers last year, the idea we ar going to cut the player who tied for the team lead in INTs and also fumble recoveries simply makes little sense. the fact that cutting him provides little cap room is what makes this concept laughable. Plan A- TV, Blan B- former starter Baker, Plan C- well regarded Leonhard. Well that's my sense of the O and my conference call that allowed me to lauch forth while listening is done so maybe I will survey the o situation as well.

I wouldn't shock me if I missed Jauron/Levy dismissing ngata as being inapropriate for the position in our cover 2 (though for them to be this specific about a player would seen odd and perhaps them protesting to much) and I would love the links or cites to these comments.

The news that Winston Justice is moving up the draft board and is now seen as a top 1o choice by some pundits at OT is great news for the Bills. D'Brick Fergy has had a monopoly pretty much on evaluation as a top ten OL pick and the feeling isthat it is quite unlikely he would drop to the Bills at #8. However, his emergence (seemingly based mostly on his performance in non-football play calisthenics like great vertical leap numbers at his pro day) easily propels to near 15 (or maybe 20 have ben mentioned) players who are noted to be a deadlock certainty to be picked by the time the Bills choice rolls around. If a run on QBs happens and folks like Leinart, Young and today;s flavor Cutler actually get chosen in the top 5 the Bills will almost certainly see a sirprising player like V. Davis, AJ Hawk, or even D'Brick himself be available at #8 (not all of them certainly and any one of them is likely to be gone, but if there are any surprising picks among the top 7 if other teams make an assessment that buys into the soap opera inspired hype for a player like Cutler or Vince Young, it could get very interesting to own the #8 pick. To me the key element (and most fan draftniks will hate to hear this) will be that a big key to the Bills making the right choice is going to be the personal interviews they do with players at the Combine and on pro days. Draftniks will hate this because us fans specialize in making our judgments based on stuff we can see (if we have the free time or money to visit the Combine or at least the free time to watch NFL Network) and things which can be measured like vertical leap, weight lifting reps. 40 times or shuttle run speeds. However, all these high school calisthenics while real indicators of athleticism are no where near determiners of good football skills (even though in this fantasy league drive world folks still for some reason one treat these numbers like deadlocak certain religious pronouncements. Its great to hear of prospects turning in impressive times, but really all they do is heighten the ultimate value of the interviews with the GM of individual players and Marv, Modrak and the upper level braintrust making their assessment of from looking in a players' eyes about how much of a football player (not an athlete, nor how good individually a man is), a potential player is going to be. Reading these tea leaves is a tough thing to do under any circumstances. Even when you read a player's character correctly, it is impossible to tell what the gods will introduce into a players life for the first time in his youth that may actually change his make-up signficantly (for example if a early 20ish player falls in love for the first time and a lot of his commitment that he honestly showed when interviewed was because football was the most important thing in his life and suddenly football is a distant #2 behind his love, or suddenly this kid can have a kid and look at the future for the first time and suddenly a flighty idiot becomes a serious about the game because this is the way to serve his kid, or like Mike Williams, the Grammy who raised him dies and a happy-go-lucky kid has a major meltdown). Prdiciting the future is impossible under the best circumstances, but even still it becomes all important in making a choice for the drafters to read whether the college play or Combine numbers will translate into being a Buffalo Bill. In is funny because the more deadlock certain folks predictions are in TSW, then the more humorous they strike me. Don't get me wrong, its great info and perspective and I am glad folks share it, However, no TSW poster really should exect anyone to take these predictions as any more than a guesstimate. Unless the posters have not just simply looked at the game or game films or simply poured through stats, it is impossible to take any predictions with much seriousness unless they also have talked to the potential draftee and looked him in the eye to assess the man. My sense is that any even semi-intelligent NFL team when given a choice between a Best Player Avaiable Apprpach OR a Need Approach who does not say they pursue BOTH is simply lying to you or is quite dumb in ignoring one of these key factors. Even beyond taking a general approach, the ultimate decision needs to be driven by looking the player in the eye and talking to him before they decide who to draft or they are doing little more than rolling the dice that their pick will not be some prima donna, coddled athlete and not a real adult or a real man. My own fact-free opinions as to the top likely draft picks as told by Kiper are: 1) . Reggie Bush Jr. RB USC Bush can score from anywhere on the field. Almost certainly will not drop and the cost of trading up to get him is prohibitive. 2. Matt Leinart Sr. QB USC Arm strength has improved since 2004. Also will not drop to # 8, the cost of trading up to get him is prohibitive and for us to picks a QB in the first round with three QBs under contract )meaning significant cost to even cut or trade them) means drafting any QB in the first would be dumb. 3. Mario Williams Jr. DE N.C. State Rushes the quarterback extremely well. Attractive player given cover 2 need for DL push but will not drop to #8 and signing od Denney with Kelsay and Schobel under contract makes DE a non-interest in the 1st for us. 4. D'Brickashaw Ferguson Sr. OT Virginia Best offensive line prospect in the senior class. Take hun uf he somehow drops but incredibly unlikely this will happen and our needs are to great and diverse to trade up. 5. Vince Young Jr. QB Texas Moved into top three after Rose Bowl performance. I hope that the soap opera love which attracts many fans to glitzy players allows him to be taken in the top 5, but non-prototypical player in an NFL within which many draft gurus are legends in their own minds makes it possible that this unconventional but wonderful talent could drop. If he does drop to #8 the Bills should try first to get some foolish team below them to trade us value to move up and if not then run and do not walk to pick up someone else. He may end up being a great player but does not appear to be orthodox enough for us to build around. 6. Michael Huff Sr. DB Texas Athletic, instinctive and has versatility for next level. Kiper has him highly ranked and SS is defintie need for us (some TSW posters advocate taking him). This is tempting as he looks like a very good player, but though Kiper values him highly as a palyer he also recognizes that not only will ne be there at #9 but probably even later in the draft as it is unusual for a Safety to go in the top 10. If the Bills want him, they likely can trade down a couple of spots and still get him while bringing need resources to the team. 7. A.J. Hawk Sr. LB Ohio St. Best senior prospect on defense. Another great player who if the Bills took him (and likely he would not have to drop far and if something happened like the Jets going for Cutler, Hawk probably drops to us. Yet, we have major salary cap outlays scheduled for 06 to TKO, Fletch and Crowell. This is not even counting the fact that now lontime starting Bill OLB Posey is under contract (and proably will be cut even under the current configuration. Drafting Hawk likely delays the Bills returning to competitive status bu a year as by definition major DL gaps would have to be filled by a less than 1st round talent AND we are going to be choosing to pay a massive cap hit to someone not contributing on the field. If folks think this is the way to do things fine, but they tend to only argue that which no one disagress with that Hawk is great, when the real answer to the problems caused by drafting him are what millionaire to they plan to pay for not contribuiting and how will out holes where we are missing a starter get filled? 8. Vernon Davis Jr. TE Maryland Wide receiver in a tight end's body. One of the more interesting possibilities. He has an easy case to make to be the BPA TE in this draft and if you worship workout numbers over actual production a case that he may well be one of the BPAs at TE ever. However, this important single position which nevertheless is used marginally in almost all NFL Os iactuallyed occupied quite well on the Bills as former HC MM wwas a TE and on his watch we spent 3rd rounders two years in a row on TEs who are still unproven actors on our roster due to injuries. Given our needs at several other positions one almost has to be devoted to BPA over need entirely to justifiy having any interest in Davis. There is a not unreasonable possibility that the Bills may get a shot at VD at # 8, but those of us who believe that BPA is important but rationality demands blending that with a balanced view that also takes into account need. If Davis is still available (which he may not be as I suspect some draft guru will be attracted by his stunning wrkout numbers, the best football move for the Bills looks like tradedown for someone who really relishes Davis and use the acquired picks to meet our wide needs, Just as Hawk may create an opportunity to rape some mid0round pick which wants him badly so to if Davis drops to us their may be an unprecedented opportunity to take someone foaming at the wallet over Davis to the cleaners for our football benefit. 9. DeAngelo Williams Sr. RB Memphis Third in the nation in rushing yards per game. At best we need a #2 EB and we can find one elsewhere and get a better player than Williams to fill a need we have. 10. Haloti Ngata Jr. DT Oregon Clogs the middle and penetrates backfield well. Some TSW folk seem to rag on him because as best as I can tell they really want us to pick some player they love at a different position. There is even the though wwidely spread on TSW that a big body like Ngota does not fit at all our Dick Jauron deecided cover 2 scheme. Yeah right? Jauron has relied on such fleet supple DL platyers as Big Ted Washington in Chicago and also Keith Traylor. DC Fewell comes from Jax which used some mobile DTs like Stroud and Henderson to man his scheme who seem to be mobile big men the same as the massive Ngota also has a rep as a penetrator even though he is huge. The Bills cleaerly have a commitment to a scheme in that we are going to run cover 2 rather than a zone blitz, BUT WE HAVE NOT RUN THE BILLS VERSION YET, an nobody but nobody know whether Haloti fits the way that Jauron and Fewell are going to run our system. All we know is that: A. We have a need for another starting DT next to Triplett. B. Traditionally to run cover 2 pressure on the QB is key so whoever we get needs to be a penetrator at times. C, Marv has often said the game starts with running and stopping the run. Who knows for sure, but if Ngota ia there at #8 a lot of factors point to the Bills taking him. 11. LenDale White Jr. RB USC Touchdown scoring machine. Read DeAngelo Williams, take two aspirin and call me in the morning. 12. Jimmy Williams Sr. CB Va. Tech Shutdown corner who cuts the field in half. We can do better at # 8 when we pick and there is little reason to go out of our way for a CB after franchising NC. Additional folks worth mentioning on the Kiper list- 15. Jay Cutler Sr. QB Vanderbilt Has all the tools NFL looks for in a QB. It will be great news for us if he gets picked by one of the first 7 as this would push a good player we need down to us. 17. Brodrick Bunkley Sr. DT Florida St. Defenisve standout at the combine. Theoretically stock is creeping up, but this in part may be a Bills inspired rumor as Ngota looks like such an obvious pick for. He is one reason though I do not mind us trading # 8 for a mid 1st pick if we get serious extra resources and can take Bunckley as well. I prefer a bigger body to team with the athletic fleet D players we are emphasizing but he seems to have the quality of play to be a run stopper extraordinaire even at an OK but not huge size. 22. Winston Justice Jr. OT USC Excellent blocker; can play either tackle position. Good work at USC pro day and calistenic performances like a near 40 inch vertical leap (virtually unheard of for an OT, but an example of how workout numbers may be meaningless because this jumping ability will really come in handy when he goes up for poorly thrown balls on tackles eligible passes). At any rate, its good news that he is getting some propsbecause if true then perhaps the Bills will be able to get some credible OL help if they can in fact increase their supply of draft choices by trading down. Well that is my fact free opinion and the only dead lock certainty is that after some research and study something different than I think is correct will happen. But then why should I be different than anyone else?

My sense is: 1. There will be no definite gamebreaker picks avaiable to the Bills at #8 (ie OL players at even possible Boselli levels or DL players at possible Bruce Smith level). The only even seemingly poassible best ever at his position he might (but proabably won't fall is Vernon Davis at TE. 2. Fortunately, though this draft is quite unlikely to gove is a gamebrealer at #8 it appears to be a deep draft where reasonable potential first year starters may even be available in the third round. Unless there is such a clear drop-off between the best player available at the time of our pick and the players available next time we pick, I think we can comfortably let need drive us a bit more than it usually does in a draft where choosing one or the other approach is simply a false dichotomy. Any NFL team which does not weigh both factors and take them into account appropriately is simply stupid/ In the case of this question, unless the BAP is so head and shoulders above the second choice or above other players, the draft is such a crap shoot that almost every time I think you take two potential bood players over 1 potentially very good playetr. D'Brick seems to be head and shoulders above the other LTs in this draft so the Bills would be happy to have him. but as one scout apparently said they think he is Levi Jones good rather than Tony Boseeli good. Particulary given our many needs I think you yake a Buncjley and Justice over getting a D;Brick alone. Even if D'Brick plays well you lose badly anyway and next year is a rebuilding year rather than building off the substantial progress we are more likely to make if both D and D holes are improved.

After hearubg Ralph's assessment of things in the CBA negotiation and watching and listening to him over the year's my sense of how he feels about this like yours is more based on my own feeling and conjectures rather than his since I do not know him intimately at all (I assume you suffer from missing this critical element for formulating a real opinion as I do, but if you do know him well my apologies). Yet, as fans of this business within which he has placed himself in the public sphere he has invited each of us to have our own fact-free ioinions about what he thinks and feels even if they are based on an incomplete view of all that went on and selected quotes from him chosen by the media. If he doesn't like your or my false conclusions he should get out of this public business. My sense from listening to an elderly Ralph recently and watching him over the years are: 1. He still seems to get real value out of being a Bills owner and trying hard. Despite any confusion and consternation with theCBA, we have seem this commitment most recently in his firing of TD, hiring of his buddy Marv, attempt to hang onto MM, but letting him go when he wanted to go. His actions in these cases seemed to be an admission of errors in management of the Bills on his part. However, if he was so pissed that he was angry or fed up these actions did not reflect this. If he was so fed up with being an owner and his ownership his actions of hiring his buddy Marv and promising more personal involvement (a bad sign actually in terms of outcomes as I hope he leaves it to the professionals) are not those of someone so fed up he is checking out. In addition, we have seen Ralph angry at an HC who he felt stiffed him when he took Wade to arbitration over payment of his final year even though he was almost certain to lose (and he did). Instead of being vindictive with MM, he let him walk and get a new job with Miami when simply by throwing a little fit he could have delayed MM's job search past the time folks like Miami wanted to hire. H has demonstrated zero signs of anger or disengaging quite recently. 2. He seems to indicate in his comments that he clearly recognizes which parts of the NFL are about business and which parts are about sports. Its hard for me to see where you are getting some sense of RWS being personally disheartened by his loss of the 30-2 owner vote on the CBA. He definitely seemed to be a bit pissed in such a complex document involving huge bucks being decided so quickly. However, I have certainly gotten the sense for RWS and his comments over the years that he recognizes the difference between the part he enjiys the most (the sport) and the other necessary part of enjoying the sport which is the business. RWS lost on the business vote bigtime, but I see no comments from him that indicate it has soured 40 years of positive experiences for the most part with the sport. In fact if RWS was so fragile that he got so freaked out about every business set-back and loss he would have probably checked out of life a long time ago. 3. As far as the business side goes, it seems pretty clear that RWS has to recognize with the new CBA that while he is at a fiscal disadvantage to some owners, it all is in the context of he us among the very rich at a disadvantahe to the extremely rich. It would be the height of whining for Ralph to get too peeved about this. Yes he iis at a fiscal disadvantage to hyper rich like Dan Snyder with larger immediate cash flow or those with large stadium assets they easily and willingly go into debty fpr ommediate cash over the cap total and RWS is not able or willing to put himself in this position. However, being an BFL owner is the closest thing to owning a money-making machine for both rich and richer owners. Ralph would have had to toatally lose any sense of fiscal reality here to feel that even though he got a worse deal than he wanted that he in any way shape or form got a bad deal. I simply cannot imagine Ralph being such a little person that he feels he got a horrendous deal here and if he has any sense of balance he cannot be upset though he can quite reasonably be bummed the negotiations were not done in a manner the thinks business should be conducted/

If the unlikely were to actually happen (a kid can dream can't he) and AJ Hawk actually were to drop to the 8th pick it would bee great for the Bills! However, the greatest football benefit for us would not be found in selecting him, but in providing us with some great trade bait so we could move pick 8 to another team for additional resources which can help this team become a winner way sooner than it would even if Hawk played lights out LB. I see three possible scenarios if we in fact draft Hawk: A. He is a dud- I really doubt this happens from what I have seen iof him in college play. on the highlight reels, and at the Combine (unless he gets hurt which can happen to anyone and unless there is something about a player like previous injuries and no one can predict that, however, a team can minimize risks here by turning one pick into multiple choices by trading down). However, the draft is such a crap shoot (agin TD's assertion that 50% of 1st round choices disappoint remains unchallenged from what I've seen by a broad fact-based analysis) that even highly regarded players like Gallery end up struggling along with the more obvious over-reaches like Mamula. B. He is a solid pro eventually even making the Pro Bowl- This is the least I would expect of him from what iI have seen, but still even with this solid development and work this is a problematic pick by the Bills will judged to be a failure by many of the fans and all the media who love to insult and pile on. This would be the case, because unless Hawk is immediately a lights out player he will do a good chunk of his development on the bench. The Bills are already paying multi-millions to Fletch, TKO, and Crowell at LB. It would be fiscally the easiest thing in the world and probably intelligent from an individual player development perspective to let Hawk learn to be a vet by competing and working hard off the bench though breaking in at ST would be probably be more likely for him than LB )again this is assuming he is very good but not Lawrence Taylor lights out in quality). The media and more important the customer (who in our system of business is always right) will have a field day whining about the Bills not getting a player who could start immediately with pick #8. C. He is the second coming of LT and immediately plays lights out. This is great as Hawk is a likely leader of the Bills for years to come (barring injury to him). However, do not make the mistake of thinking there are no negatives which we will have to deal with if he is taken and becomes a great player. By taking this route we guarantee that several million dollars in salary will sit on the bench for the Bills in 06. Perhaps TKO never recovers )no sign whatsoever of this yet fortunately) but is Hawk so good we sit his salary if Hawk is the better WLB of the two? Fletch has put up great numbers for us being credited with more taqckles the last 5 years than any other NFL player. He easily once again led the Bills last year in tackles, perhaps a lights out Hawk is better than Fletch at MLB and we sit Fletch. We just signed Crowekk kong-term when we did not have to, but perhaps Hawk is so great that it makes no sense to move Crowell into Posey's spot and we sit him (in addition to cutting Posey. Whether Hawk turns out to be good, bad, or unclear, his highest footbsll value if he drops to #8 is for the Bills to trade down and still get a mid-rouder they can still use on a player likely Bunckley and a couple of other first day picks which will give us over 10 for the draft. I too hope AJ Hawk falls to 8 and then we quickly trade him to get help to reduce our reloading time rather than have him play and even if he is great it takes us even more time to rebuild given the large gaps left by going LB and to absorb the wasted salary sitting on the bench due to crowd at LB.

If you are drafting QB Gradkowski (and I assume keeping rather cutting him otherwise why draft him) this means you must cut one of our vet QBs (thus adding the cap hit of his accelerated bonus to the cost of keeping Gradko). As long as the premise of this post lauches off into the fantasy world of not only the draft but the uber fantasy world of draft trades, then if you pick a QB you want to cut, you can throw him into your trade resources and maybe propose getting even more picks in exchanges for this QB. I love the fantasy world.

It's easy when the article has little to say beyond none of the players involved being worthy of a top ten pick.

I aggree with you that we pass on Whitehurst. Right now their is a logjam of unproven players at QB. Right now it is unlikely that Nall, Holcomb and JP will all fail this year. However, if we simply declare on these players a failure by replacing him with Whitehurst, we not only add a significant (to huge) financial cost to drafting Whitehurst, It also heighten the possibility that we may even be forced to play Whitehurst if one of the two surviving QBs fails and the other is hurt. The only way the Bills draft Whitehurst if they choose to do something which makes little football sense. In addition, the selection of Huff probably means nothing in terms of Vincent's status. TV is first on our depth chart at FS, Huff if drafted better step in immediately if he can at starting SS where we chopped Milloy. If anybidy's job is in danger from us drafting Huff it would be Coy Wire who has already failed at the starting SS job and has shown little sign of developing into a quality starter as a pro at a safety position he has never played at any level of organized ball. If anything, the drafting of Huff enhances the value of Vincent to this team as there are few other players in the NFL between his DB Pro Bowl appearances, 10+ years, his position as the player voted leader of the NFLPA, and his leadership in working toward an MBA at an Ivy League school in the off-season (apparently TKO has joined him in these endeavors). It seems you have totally the wrong read on the impact of Huff coming to th Bills on TV.

IMHO a good summary of the take expressed in this article from the Bills perspective is definitely trade down if possible.

Fans are not required to deal with football in any kind of objective fashion, and alot of this is seen in folks reactions to the play of Adams, He gives tons of legit reasons for indicting his play (for example he clearly seems more interested in doing things his way rather than the team way dictated by the coaches). However, injury does not appear to be one of them based on his record of being able to show-up and play (even his final injury related DNPs seemed to be more related to a failed attitude rather than a failed body). One of the real surprises for me in Adams play was that he seemed to grow up a bit as a person at the end of his time and the Bills got far more focused play from him than in his earlier career when he was so talented he did not need to be focused in his play or diligent in his workouts to be good. He was a fine cut by us, because it made little sense to pay big bucks to an older player who refused to subordinate himself on what is likely to be a young building team. However, simply becaise he was a correct cut by the Bills does not mean he is a bad playeer who can do nothing. Becuse of our lack of depth at DT and his skills lending themselves to the role we need a DT to play cutting him was a very close call but the correct one.