Pyrite Gal

From what I see of the game, NFL QB ratings are in fact a non-representative stat of who in totality is a good or a bad QB. However, even though it is far from perfect (or anywhere near perfect in fact) it is a useful stat which provides some good insights into who is good and who is not. I think the NFL passer rating is subject to abuse by those who claim it is completely worthless (the rules are the same for players being compared in the same year, so even to the extent it is off it is off in the same way for everyone and the comparison of QBs in that same year is valid and discrepancies between the rating and reality can be seen) and also by those who go to the opposite extreme and treat as some involuble Holy Grail which cannot be assaulted. I think the worst though of the extreme view that lodges to much import in this stat is done by those who compare passer ratings garnered in one year versus passer ratings garnered in another year or try to compare one career to another career even though the passer ratings were produced in different years or different eras. Trying to compare the passer ratings of a Joe Namath who played in a 14 game season under one set of NFL rules (everything from how the refs called pass interference, to contact rules beyond 5 yards downfield, to the 2 point conversion to other factors make this a very different game). I'm not saying once cannot compare different players from different era. I'm just saying that one cannot use simple stats or claim any drop dead certain accuracy about the comparison due to stats because the numbers and the game were significanly different.

One of the issues which folks seem to be missing out on is that there is a difference between the questions "Does Bledsoe deserve to be in the HOF?" and "Will Bledsoe be in the HOF?" Personally, I do not think he deserves to be in the HOF because overall in his career, because as an opponent, for the most part it did not scare me to face him. It did initially because of his rep and some impressive performances. However, after a very few seasons, his weaknesses became somewhat obvious and struck me as easily defensed. He had and still has a rocket arm and now has a lot of game experience (but he never has shown the scary football brain that made me afraid to face him at crunch time). He can kill you if your players are not good (particularly your DBs) but he has struck me as an eminently beatable opponent. The irony is here, that though he would not make into the Pyrite HOF, I am pretty certain he will make it into the NFL HOF. 1. The HOF is about FAME and not simply great play. Bledsoe was incredibly well regarded when he commanded a 1st round choice to get him in the draft. He followed that up with leading a team to the SB under Parcells, and even deserving a ring by throwing the winning TD playing QB in the majority of a must win game in the Pats 2001 Tom Brady led SB run. In addition, through some top notch seasons before opponents caught on to his stremgths/weaknesses and his longevity he will have glitzy stats. 2. The HOF is determined by a vote of a panel rather than solely on some raw statistical measurement. In Bledsoe's case, the accumulated stats in conjunction with his personal rep and accomplishments should be more than enough to gain him consideration. The QB competition he faces in this vote will likely eventually get him elected and possibly even in the first year unless he retires the same year as Favre. 3. The questions of whether he belongs in the HOF and whether the Bills should have traded for him are also two different questions. I think there is little question we should have traded for him as I think he was a far better alternative for us at QB in 2002 than AVP. Chris Chandler or Jeff Blake and the real alternatives out there. I think he should have been cut after his horrible 2003 and it would have still been at worst a wash for us as we replaced the 1st round choice we traded for him with a choice which became WM (I doubt TD would have shown the cojones to seek a 1st for PP without the need to replace the one given up for DB). Still I think folks are frstrated with DB and somehow ignore his 2002 for us when he played on the field well enough for us to deserve his Pro Bowl reserve nod (if one disagress then simply name the other QBs who deserved the AFC reserve nod more that year). However, folks frustration are not only misplaced in judging him a wash or not as a Bill, but misplaced in no realizing that whether he passes my test or not (or your test or not) as an HOF member, the votes that count are those of the NFL HOF committee. They likely will vote DB as deserving HOF status based on his garnering the Fame to deserve it based on his glitzy numbers (both s few good years AND his longevity), his success (leading a team to the SB AND playing a key role in getting the 01 team a win), his being tossed on the reject pile and still making a comeback of accomplishment (making the Pro Bowl for the Bills after the NE cut and being a multi-year starter for Dallas (and potemtially even leading them to the playoffs in a weak NFC( after the Bills cut him. I think he probably for sure is in (and certainly in if the Boys make the playoffs with him as QB even if it is their D and weak competition that get him there) even if he would not make my own HOF. The NFL vote is the one that counts.

I think part of the backlash against the antiTV sentiment comes from the arguments not being well thought out or motivated by anti-union rather than pro-football sentiments. 1. A decision to cut him now means cutting the player who led the team in combined turnovers received last year as he tied for the team lead in both INTs and FRs. Posts which advocate cutting him seem based in rants about his age (even as a decrepit oldster he surpassed his teammates in turnover production and this fact should be acknowledged and vetted by those advocating cutting him) or his cap figure rather than the realities of his production vis-a-vis other Bills. 2. Even those committed to a youth movement seem to ignore: A. The value he can provide to this use as an on-field peer teacher (you want coaches, experience and peer instruction so why rely on only one when you can do all). B. The fact that they may be on a 2-3 year timeline, but likely Ralph who wants to put butts in the seats as a businessman and ain't gettin younger almost certainly wants to win as much as he can right now. 3. The anti-union stuff is peripheral for the most part to whether he should be on this football team which is best governed by performance (again even if he is getting old, he turnover production is best on the team). In fact. to the extent his union presidency is relevant at all it all argues toward keeping him: A. He is an acknowledged and respected leader by his peers on a young team which will want and need leadership. B. The NFLPA is a partner with the team owners (and arguably the majority partner given the way total revenues are divided in the new CBA). There will be neogtiations and ultimately agreement between these partners over issues of dispute, but retaliatory actions by team owners against the NFLPA is old thinking as the new thinking of cooperation has resulted in massive profits for all parties of the NFL. C. If there is any sense that the Bills and Ralph are in fact using the game to retaliate against the NFLPA, there is a significant risk that this will undercut our ability to sign the best FAs. 4. The switch to the Cover 2 from the zonr blitz plays to TV's strengths and not only makes it essential not to cut him this year but amazingly may even extend his career as a Bill a year after that. Cutting TV may make anti-union folk happy (the unions are so weak it is counter intuitve in the first place to identify them as a leading problem in society, the union movement has not led anything since the late 60s or early 70s) butit would likely be a bad idea in terms of football performance for this team.

I think a good link is to the article today where an explanation is given by Jauron/Fairchild about the status of their current QB decision making and the issue of QBs not getting reps because their are a bunch in camp. http://www.buffalonews.com/editorial/20060...?tbd2015941.asp Specifically, they seem to answer the notion presented in an earlier post by you (which I unfortunately attributed to Mark VI in an earlier response as I reacted to the insane notion that the braintrust had already decided Holcombwas done). Rather than it being prompted by some galactic pop psychology conspiracy theory that at decision has been made, the braintrust feels they can manage the competition between player. They go even further than I would go saying they would be comfortable with no answer emerging until after the 3rd pre-season game while I has targeted after the 2nd game as the Bills pursuing the Marv Levy method that a team which has two starting QBs has no starting QB. I think may fans are really getting their panties all up in a wad wanting to see a decision made by the braintrust right now rather than until after these men compete on the field. This strikes me as a key to why we repetitively have made poor QB decisions that the braintrust has let their hearts decide this notion based on pre-season assessment rather than let their heads decide this based on game competition.

I'm glad you have brought your assessment closer to reality from first saying Gletcher would definitiely not be in on obvious passing downs to now it is something you suspect. I'm not sure where you developed the impression of Fletcher being such a liability on pass cpverage. Perhaps it was because the entire Bills D were liabilities on everything last year. Perhaps it is because he is shorter than the norm. It does not appear to be from the games to me since actually Fletcher seemed to routinely do deeper coverage than the norm last year and beyond the failing grades the Bills D received overall, it never struck me that Fletcher was that nid of a pass coverage liability. Perhaos there are specific plays or speciific games you can point to, and I must admit that as last season wore on I did not look at our debacle efforts that closely so perhaps I missed something, Overall, i think Fletcher brings this to the cover 2 (or Tamps 2 where the Mike gets the third downfield coverage role): 1. Great motor- I gave few doubts that a player who has shown LF's motor can get downfield repeatedly to cover passes. LBs are great players because generally they are stout enough to play the line but fleet enough to pass cover. However, of the two it is the LBs ability to play the safety role rather than his ability to play the DE role which is more in doubt for most LBs. Fletcher's motor makes him a positive in pass coverage rather than a liability due to his height. 2. Great ball tracking skills- Fletcher has snown an outstanding abilityu to track a ball in flight which is a critical part of pass coverage and winning duels in jump ball situtaions. His ball tracking abilities are so good in fact that he routinely was given the forward receiving duty on kicks which went short and he routinely handled these balls well. he was not given this duty because he is a shifty runners but because he tracks and plays the ball well. 3. Great experience- Fletcher is going to have to use this skill from seeing a tone of plays in a ton of situation to accurately diagnose whether the opponent is going to pass on an obvious passing down, but they just might run the draw instead and if our MLB is sprintind downfield with is back turned he might be followed by an RB doing the delayed draw. The beauty of the Cover 2 if it works will be that it will bend but not break. Part of not breaking here will some good reads by Fletcher or the MLN about what the O is doing. Yhe inability of a rookie to make good reads is why I do not se Ellison as a viable choice for the Bills at MLB until well after mid-season.. It will be a real challenge for Fletcher to play downfield so deep, but given that while the LB cannot ride a receiver adter 5 yards he does have an equal right to the ball in a jump ball situation. If Fletcher uses his motor to get downfield in position and his good ball tracking skills to make a play, even though most receivers are taller (actually Chris Chambers is taller than all defenders, if Fletcher gets position he can work the body of a smaller WR as they go up for the ball. I feel good about him in pass coverage. My sense is that Watson was utilized initially in pass coverage less to see if he could replace Fletcher and more to see whether he was up to playing this unconventional role for an LB. You need to present a much stronger case than fact-free mentions of Fletcher's heght or age (based on himeasily leading the team in tackles again he does not seem to be slowing down much yet.

I'mjust saying that a decision to cut a QB to get down to the conventional number of 4 would in fact be making a decision based on the conventional Bills wisdom which has resuted in the designation of a starting QN based on of field assessments rather than an assessment of their on field play. From wjat I understand Marv and Jauron have emphsaized competition on the field and given that we do not come into this season with a for certain starter (a refreshing change from the previous regimes which designated Bledsoe worthy of an extension even though his onfield play in 3003 did not merit it, then designated JP as the starter though his on field play did not merit it) it is perfectly consistent with a commitment to competition that they come into camp with more than the conventional wisdom of 4 QBs. Even moreso, our having a bunch of WRs of similar skill levels of whom none have yet taken even the #2 WR job and made it there own, having more QBs to throw to the WRs (and I also hope they are going to give WM more pass catching duties), it simply strikes me as an equallt credible theort that we plan to come into camp wth nire QBs thab the conventional wisdom, It was this what else could it be besides a decision to go beyond Holcomb which i was responding to. The more competition theory actually strikes me as even more credible than the pop psychology theory of assessing who Jauron has already decided to ditch, It could be that you are right about this but I hope not as it would be a sign of the same old failed thinking in terms of front office determination of who is the QB on the field, so i just hope your rheory is wrong. I do not care who wins the QB battle, I just hope our braintrust has the cojones to put up with the battle for the beginning of camp and the first two pre-season games.

The reason is called competition. It would be simply stupid to make a decicion to let one of them go for several reasons: 1. Injuries- JP and TV demonstrated in pre-season camp that even wearinf the no-git training camp tutu that a QB can go down. The Bills looked far abd wide and gard at the waiver wire before signing Matthews. To make a decision to cut one of these two before camp begins would simply be a bad move which might make life simplistic for the coaches but would create a dumb risk. 2. Real play- No one has yet figured out an absolute formula for making an O work. It would simply be dumb for the Bills to not even give the threepro QBs on their roster a real sgit at seeing how well they run the O rather than make decisions based mostly on 7-on-7 drills and stat sheet demographics. 3. Past real occurences- The Bills have suffered again and again in a futile effort to find the next Jim Kelly instead of attempting to win with what they have (the best ST in the league, a top-ranked statistical D and a troubled O at best). Are you really suggsting that after a decade of failure caused in large part by ramming our heads into the wall making QB decisions based on off-filed assessments rather than primaruily on field play, that we once again go down this path and bash our heads into the wall. Given our uncertainty at QB and the need to throw a bunch of passes to the 10 WRs competing for as few as 4 jobs, that we get a bunch of camp fodder QBs, lwet them compete and cut the worse ones and keep the good ones based on performance and not on somebody's assessment without seeing them play for semi-real once camp begins and in the beginninning of the pre-season.

Beyond signing there players being consistent with a stated desire to make it as competitive as possible at each position, I see no evidence that supports the dime store psychology theories being thrown around as a reading such and such a move means that the braintrust has decided to throw out a particular player. If anythinh there seems to be a pretty clear recognition that a big part of the Bills QB problems have been that a starter was chosen based on how he practiced and responded to tests rather than making this calculation based on performance on the field. It will be bad news if the brantrust has given up on any of the three leading QB candidates based on some guesstimation (even by learned football men and much less by us fans) of which QB is going to perform well in real games based on a players arm strength, height or some other locker room measureable. To the extent this team stays the course and does not make a final choice until after we see all 3 plus whomever perform in the first two pre-season games, this decision will be premature and probably work out as well as when the job was handed to TC before they attempted to train the happy feet out of him, when they handed the job to Hobert for no seeming reason except for panic, when they handed the job to RJ based on his short episodes with Jax, or when they handed an extension to Bledsoe after a horrid season, or when they handed the job to JP when he was not reay. I'm sure that we all have our favorites (the Bills braintrrust as well) and its great to hear folks argue for their guy (though usually folks take the very easy track of instead arguing that someone else sucks rather than promoting their favorite), However, if a QB has been selected based on his work in these OTAs and if any of these three has been eliminated based on what litle has happened so far this season will almost certainly be a disaster.

Just my typical flow of unconciousness.

I misspoke (or is it mistyped) if I said or implied that NYS has services which are not available in MOST places around the county. I do think it is true that there are some services available here which provide greater $ provided than in many places around the country. Further, there are some services available right here in Rtie County which are not available in other municipalities in places like the two examples I just ran into with friends enuring the wilds of WI and NC, More specifically. this is true generally because the cost of these services is so much higher in the NYC market than in other places. One of the benefits of being in WNY is that rules are set for the entire state and thus must go for services in NYC or WNY. In general, the state law finds it really hard to give less $ to one citizen of the state than it gives to another citizen of the state. Programs need to be given to control by the bureaucrats in Albany with authority to vary the payout for specific services based on the cost of services in that area or if they are simply given equal amounts to NYS citizens regardless of the cost of living and services where they live, then it a better deal to get those equalized payments in a cheaper part of the state. Though these differences can be moderated and fine tuned within the state. It is still the case that there is a higher cash payout by NYS government relative to other states be relative to payments from other states. This middle exists for various state payouts to human services welfare payments to corportate welfare payments in subsidies. More specifically, there are programs like the Health Plus program authored by George Pataki which provides services akin to universal health care for single mothers, welfare recipients and seniors in NYS which other states do not have. Another example comes due to our proximity to the Canadian border where through soical welfare payments and acquisition of cheaper Canadian drugs or simply by driving across the border NYS residents get to take advantage of the lack of effective costs controls to get the same drugs manufactered in the US for a cheaper price. A lot of these benefits of these benefits from specific payments by NYS government to its residents are most easily seen in welfare payments where it is widely known that you can get more money and a better deal from NYS than one gets from other states (MS, LA and Ala provide the clearest examples). Its harder to see amd amalyze in the subsudies paid by NYS to stop businesswes from fleeing to the Sunbelt where they have the advantages for businesses of paying non-unionized wages and paying worker benefits, but it makes sense that there has to be a higher payment by NYS to balance of the financial advantages pf moving. If you do not believe that there are higher social welfare payments for NYS to its reidents, just listen to conservatives here who loudly decry NYS for making such large social welfare payments to its residents (and rasing taxes to pay for it) relative to other states. The specific examples from WI and NC which I heard from Buffalo friends who moved there because of the job issue here is actually still in MYS versus other states but is seen in muninipal services. Having moved to Madison, WI (a progressive liberal city judged one of the most livable municipalities in America by several magazines) for his work in computer arts ticket services, he has since left there and taken another computer oriented job which he can do from anywhere. However, his wife completed law schools and got a job in mid-Wis while he was still anchored in Madison so they bought a house in the town of Toma (sp.) guivng each of them a significant commute but one which allowed them to work in two remote towns. One of their complaints about where they live is that their municipality out in the stix does not provide the same yard waste pick-up as is mandated by NYS state la and generally found in urban areas. They actually had to buy a third verhicle, a tuck to haul wastes as their passenger cars were built to haul people. They work for an urbanized area like Erie County but not for the stix. They are now looking to move back to Buffalo as he can do his work from anywhere you can plug in a computer terminal and she is sick of her office and a lawyer can usually find some job amywhere. The NC example was most interesting as the woman of the duo decided to abandon her search here for the teaching job she was trained to do and they went to NC. They were rudely disappointed to find that the problem was not the area but that there were people involved and the political infighting was just as silly in the Sunbelt as here. Being Jewish they tried Shaker Heights, OH, but found that yep there were people there as well and the scholol issues were just as bad. They sold their homes and decided that their kids being less than 5 were more portable than they ever would be (they coul move themselve but still be controlled- they get older and can move themselves even more but parents lose control as they approach older ages). At any rate, they bought an RV and traveled the counry showing their youngsters America while Mom used her teaching training and RV schooled them. This excursion came to an end after a year and it was time to get serious about income as they traveled on inheritance. They decided they wanted to be their own bosses and asked themselves what they knew. Their answer was that after a year of RVing they knew campgrounds. They since have turned the cash used for their home, inheritance and other resources to buy an RV cmpaground which they run together in Amish country. While showing no signs of moving back to Buffalo, they do often lament the lack of basic services in the Amish ciountry and talk wistfully of the good old days with NYS services. However, they do count their blessings as they got used to the same bad schools and lack of services in the Sun Belt. The education and acutally living situation here is WHY is actually defined by individualism. Folks love taking the worst example of Buffalo publicschools and they are true, but fact is that it was a Buffalo HS City Honors which recentlt ranked in the top 10 (#4 I think) of city HS educations in the country using the same measures applied to all schools. Amherst which borders Buffalo traditionally is ranked by crime statistics as the safest municipality in America (there was one odd year when some wacko assassinated a doctor over the abortion issue where it lost iss annual status). The fact is in WNY. one can find what you want if you know what you want and are willing to look for it.

Fair enough in a football sense, but a radical position if it chooses to ignore the business realities of the game. Like it or not, the NFL used to be a sport which also happened to be a business and today it is a business which happens to be a sport. As I laid out in stultifying detail above, the reality of the business simply dictates that Evans-Price/Parrish- and Reed are going to get the first four WR skits unless something unusual and quite stupendous happens regarding an FA like Davis or a UDFa like Nance. These two are more likely to compete with Aiken, Fast Freddy, and Wilson (who were on the roster last year) and also Denney for the #5, probably #6 and possibly #7 roster spots. As this team always wants players to contribute to the team here and now and even more so given the playoff drought under TD and Ralph's age these last two slots are likely to see a premium put on ST contribution. The point which I think is worth making is that for a Bills fan who wants Nance on this team, the best outcome is likely that he is as impressive as he has been in OTAs and the mandatory practices, but actually has a couple of well-timed drops in the pre-season. If this happens, we are more likely to sneak him through the FA process to be on our PS, because he would have to really show a lot of special things as a position player to make us force Ralph to pay somebody to play elsewhere or sit at home because we paid them a bonus and cut them, It looks like the best shot for Nance to make this team will be on the PS )particularly if you think he is a year or two away from contributing) because if he is that good, but not good enough to make the coaches make Ralph pay for nothing then he likely will get scarfed up by someone else when we cut him rather than end up on our PS. Personally, I hope Nance is great and makes choosing among players in this competition really tough for our coaches.

You are not seriously offering up a comparison of stats achieved in ciollege ball with stats achieved in pro ballas though they are at all comparable or at least deserve some acknowledgement that numbers achieved against college level competition and #s achieved against pro competition are really different for an indidivual except for a few vert goos players usually drafted in the first few picks of the first round rather than being signed as UDFAs like Nance. Even the best college draftees acknowledge that becoming a pro level plater is just a very different thing as its like playing against the best college players all the time. While I agree that Nance looks quite likelyto be a better player than Reed in a few years (if not sooner) and will consider himself a lucky man if his first four years of production equal PP's. the answer from most pro ti this observsation would be that teams will line-up to get Nance in a few years when he meets and exceeds Josh Reed's totals. For now, it is likely the PS for Nance and maybe if he shows he can contribute this year to the Bills most likely on ST he would make the active roster.

First, I think that ST play will determine which #5, #6 or amazingly a 7th WR stays. Its nice and a great theory to build for the future, but the reality is that the future is now whether one likes it or not for the modern NFL team. 1. There are simply too many great athletes who are divided by not much at the lower end (noon-starters) of the roster. 2. Under the world of the CBA, there there are simply too many players who do not have a large difference in their contribution now such that players who get large bonuses are going to be kept over players who have not already been paid. 3. Particularly for the Bills who have missed the playoffs for so many years and Ralph ain't gettin younger they have a strong intetrest in immediate contribution to the team and Ralph not liking paying for players (or anyone given how he handled things with Wade when he got the boot) to it on the bench or at home. If Nance is judged one of the 4th or lower WRs then he must contribute on ST or he gets the boot. Potential is a great thing but it simply means you have not done anything yet. You ask though whether he can in fact contribute by being one of the top 4 WR position players so that he need not depend on his ST contribution. For cap and quality reasons position play at this high a level looks tough for him despite his size and him catching every thing throen his way. 1. Evans- no comparison here at this 2 year vet who has produced TDs at the pro level has world class speed and no signs of the droppsies that infect some good WRs. His draft position and contract make it prohibitive to see him not contribute unless an injury occurs. 2. Peerless- Also has shown world class speed which Nance does not have. He failed at being AT's #1, but suceeded at beng the Bills #2 in 2002. The questions is there some eye or injury problem which was the casue of his failure such that he cannot resume his former production. My sense is that given the Billss docs have had a thorough chance to look at him the injury issue is probably not a big one. Given that we are on the hook with for a $2 mill bonus, and that he really only has be good enough to be oour #3 to provide the same converage benefits his speed provides when teamed with Evans and our #2 (unless PP is that guy) he easily is one of our top 4 and actually one of our top 3 WRs. 3. Parrish- He is also is a well regarded rookie we will pay his slotted bonus to whether we play him or not. He has shown in his rookie year, some real speed, and shiftiness as an open field runner. His hands were good enough as a rookie as well. Like PP he easily is one of our top 3 and if he steps up our #2. 4. Reed- also given a bonus as his contract was extended when they could have let him walk. After a solid rookie year, he had the droppsies and injuries which made keeping him quite questionable, but his ST play and solid though undistringuished performance last year seemed to get him through. He does have some good RAC potential as a former RB and perhaps if we get a St L. style O going he may prosper as a short pass artist in that type of O. As far as Nance goes, he suffers in terms of bonus already paid to these four and each of them has something which gives them potential (shiftiness -Parrish, sped- Price, RAC- Reed) just as hieght gives Nance potential. They all are vets compared to Nance being a rookie. It just seems doubtful he can beat out any of these 4 and this puts him into athe ST contribution battle with others for the #5, probably #6 and possibly #7 WR spot. Aiken probably beats him out given his very good ST perfornance and the bonus extension of his contract. I think he beats out Fast Freddy if he continues to perform as he has as we have a bunch of PR guys ahead of Smith lowering his ST potential, Like nance, Wilson is a wildcard who has shown well over the years. The bottomline is competition is great!

I think s lot of this is different strokes for different folks and the general state that American society is about the individual rather than the collective. For me, Buffalo was at its peak population in the 50s at 625,000 amd around that time at it economic zenith by many measures. Today the population is just below 300K and it is said to be in a economic trough and by many measures and factoids such as the need for control boards for the city and the county it is. However. if the economy were such that there were twice as many people in this city there is no way I could live here. The economic pits that the city and region are in creates a neat middle for me in that as a consultant I can command a wage set to compete at national levels and live in an area which through housing primarily and a good ability to pick and choose what I spend on I get what I want at a pretty reasonable cost for me, Even looking at the high tax rate compared to many Americans which no citizen can avoid, there actually are a number of services I have here that my other friends in the stix in WI or NC do not have as I have seen in recent discussions and any higher cost her due to inefficiencies are higher rates of payment but actually are a low enough actual amount that I can easily tolerate the inefficiencies with the level of income I command and with assets we have collected and my wife earned the good old fashion way of America by inheriting them. Though I think this society would be a bit better if we were a bit more collective in out approach, our society has chosen to be more individualistic. I do not think this is a good choice, but it certainly is one which I find I can quite easily take advantage of to maximize my personal profits and asset mananagement making use of both the plodding business community and the inefficiency of government. The main good thing for me is my family and I perceive this will be the case if we are lucky and that the middle should continue to exist for my useful lifespan whether young people leave or not because society changes to a more collective approach.

I think in retrospect that it was well worth the future 2003 #1 in exchange for one very good year from Bledsoe (;ike him or not he deserved getting the reserve Pro Bowl accolade that year and if you think he did not simply name the AGC QNs who deserved it more or if you want to insist that he was a bad player who in no way was in the top 1/3 of AFC QNs that year, then simply name 5 pr 6 QBs who were better that year. There are several reasons why I think that acquiring him was well worth a first round 2003 choice: 1, The big reasons is actually an off the field one, but this is reality within which our wonderful fantasy and enterainment world of football exists within. The reality was that we were coming off a 3-13 season afet a bruising and controversial QB controversy between DF and RJ. The primary thing the acquisition of Bledsoe did for our franchise was restore the excitment of the faithful. This was seen in about 10-20K fams turning out to the welcome Drew bash at the Ralph and season ticket sale spiking for an outrageously bad team. His presence was a singular infusion when this team needed it badly and making this trade for Bledsoe rather than going with the likes of Chris Chandler or Rodney Peete or AVP would have been a kiler for this franchise. 2. Ignoring realiy and sticking yo on the field stuff, I think it is only realistic to acknowledge that it was the fact we were missing a 1st round choice in 2003 which made it a huge priority for us to find a replacement choice somehow someway. One can argue that if we had simply not traded thic pick for Bledsoe we could have used it for WM whom we chose (or likely it would have been a top 10 or really a top 5 pick so maybe we trade down to get him, pick some other cadillac player or some other woulda, coulda, scenari. It gets pretty crazy pretty quick with all these hypotheticals, so i will only go a little ways there. I think it is fair to say that part of the reason TD had the balls and took the risk of tagging PP and holding out for a 1st was to replace the one shipped for Bledsoe. I really view the trade more as getting Bledsoe in 2002 for nothing that year, and abquisition of the pick which became WM as more righting the natural order, than an addition most logically considered as totally removed from the Bledsoe situation. However, you want to caluclate the moves which made this possible, before the trade we had AVP at QN and a first round choice in 2003. By the time the 2003 sraft rolled around we had Bledsoe at QB with a very good season in 2002 and a horrid season in 3004 and atill had a 2003 1st round draft pick. If we had not made the trade, I think it is likely the Bills would have finished 2002 more like the 3-13 team they were in 2001 and less like th ,500 team they were with Bledsoe at QB in 2002. 3, In addition, i think fans simply value the draft too highly. Was Drew worth a trade of a draft pick that would have been Peyton Manning? No. Was Drew worth a trade of a draft pick who would have been Ruan Leaf> Yep! Even for one who calculates a very good year by Drew and a horrid year by DB as a wash, this is far better than the bust years put bup by Leaf. It is easy to see trading away the first as a bad deal if one looks through the rose colored glasses of assuming that every 1st round pick is going to perform like Peyton Manning. However, the reality is that the draft is simply a crapshoot even in the 1st round I have yet to see TDs estimate that 50% of 1st round are disappoinments (and really busts if you want to consider the careers of stars like Mike Williams and Joey Harrington. Many people seem to make the mistake of assuming that since good players are usally the ones drafted and good players have to come from somewhere that this means that most draft choices or certainly 1st rounders should be good players. However, folks choose to ignore the fact that your team is competing aginst 31 other teams in this gigantic restraint of trade and the free market knowm as the draft. The nunbers are that even if all 8 or so of the average # of players drafted by a team in a given year make the squad they are a small % of the players on the roster that year. Rven if you want to accumulate the number of draftees still over 3 years only 24 or so of the players om average were drafted by that team which is still less than half the totals roster of a team. When you add into that a significant number of those 24 have actually been cut, traded or were injured and are off the roster by that 3rd year, it is clear that while the draft is an important part of team building it is not the only important part and actually is likely less important than other methods of player acquisition unless you were incredibly good (and actually incredibly lucky with the draft. Folks can attempt to point to SB winning teams and try to prove the import of the draft this way and actually the case is one which can be made because of the case of the Pats dominating winning recently. it has been BBs way to accumulate tons of draft picks and thus a significant number of his players are ones he drafted. However, even this episodic rather than systematic case is not proof of the whole (as most teams are not NE) and one needs to also take into account that their rate of cutting draftees is also actually likely far higher than the norm as they have more dradtees to keep and cut. Actually, as NE signed almost a 1/3 of their SB winning players after the June 1st cuts in their first SB winning season there is probably as strong an episodic case to be made that signing FAs is the key to winning as drafting. Actually, I think the two keys to their first two SB wins were: 1. Blledsoe getting his lung collapsed by a Jet hit so that Brady got a chance to run this team before the season was over as they were already 0-2 under Bledsoe, and 2. After BB totally screwed up renegotiations with Milloy and he had to be cut, many stars openly called out BB. It was the injury to Colvin among others which forced the team to make a gut check and remain a TEAM. BB is a great coach and clearly he owes the SB wins to his own skills. However, his skills though necessary to the outcome was not sufficient and I do not think this team would have won their 1st 2 SBs if key players had not gotten hurt when they did. Overall, trading a first for Bledsoe was not a big deal given the iffyness of 1sts and actually part of the trade being a wash at worst for the Bills is that they replaced the lost first with a pick for trading PP (who actually easily could have walked for nothing if TD had not been so ballsy with the tagging and also had a good relationship with PP whom he got to shut up so he could deal). The mistake with Bledsoe was extending this inadequate player after his horrid 2003 and then making it worse by cutting this inadequate player and handing the job to even a less productive player. I think trading a mere future #1 for Bledsoe was a fair price to pay for him given our needs at QB and to rejuvenate hope amongst the fans after a 3-13 season. In reality, the cost for Bledsoe to the team became nothing when we reacquired the mere 1st and turned it into WM.

I think that the signings of both Milloy and Bledsoe were the right moves at the time they were made and actually both woked quite well for us initially. The Milloy move was the correct one for us to make at the time, because both Chad Cota and Ainsley Battle agreed to play for us and then retired in pre-season. The Milloy signing was actually dumb luck for us as Boy genius Bill Belicheck completely misread and mismanged negotiations with Milloy. Folks who praise him for making a smart decision to let Milloy walk forget that actually for a mere 200K of so that BB refused to give Milloy he would have stayed in NE and Bb would have been happy to have him I think even he did not know what he would get out of Harrison at S). Folks who also want to sing BB's praises for this dscision also forget not only the role that Milloy played in the shocking Bills 31-0 skunking of the Pats which began that season, but also what Milloy brought to the locker room where one of his first acts was to challene the Bills for laughing when one of their own got bowled over by an opponent by pointing out that this was not how teammates supported each other. He was right. He learned how a team hung together in adversity and the fact the Bills never learned this lesson as seen in the Moulds implosion last year, and the attitude TD brought here when he seemed to cut Larry Centers right after his boy GW transgressed into GM territory by saying publicly Centers would be a Bill as long as he wanted to be. The teammate support issue was shown that right after BB screwed up the Milloy negotiations to the point that numerous Pats publicly called him out, the team simply sucked it up and came together when the team suffered a number of punishing injuries like the one that knocked out recent FA acquisition Colvin for the season. One of the great ironies of the BB genius is that I doubt that NE would have won either of their first two SBs without the hit that an NYJ LB put om the 0-2 Bledsoe which collapsed his lung and gave Brady a chance to play or the injuries which led the team to look beyong the BB GM idiocy and come together. Likewise Bledsoe was a tremendous acquisition in his output for the 2002 season. He not only led to a rejuvenated offense which placed Moulds, Travis and himself on the Pro Bowl, but off field several thousand folks showed up for the welcome Drew event at the Ralph and there was a buzz which put butts in the seats after a 3-13 season. The mistake here was not in originally signing Bledsoe, but in resigning him after his horrid 2003 season. If anyone wants to think about what life in 2002 would hae been like without Bledsoe, remember that the reason we were looking for a QB was we had finally cut the injury prone RJ. The two most reasonable options if the trade for DB was not made was FAs Chris Chandler and Rod Peete. In addition, remember that another effect of NE trading DB, was that though they made the right decision picking Brady over him, ironically they missed the playoffs completely the year after and the year before they won SBs due to acceleration of the huge cap amount Bledsoe made. On the Milloy front, i have but two words to say why this move was necessary as without Milloy the starter would have been: Coy Wire

I think for the folks currently on the roster, unless Watson shows a lot at MLB then I think that clearly the first try would be to go with Crowell. I was pleasantlly surprise with is work at MLB as a reserve last pre-season. Some folks seem to complain about his work backing up TKO after the injury. However, the forget #1 that he was on the depth chart as an MLB and they actually thought well enough of him to move him to WLB rather than promote Haggan who was on the depth chart as TKO replacement. His work was not only that of a youngster suddenly thrust into a starting positon, but as a youngster who switched positions to go there. Second, i thought he looked pretty good on an unproductive D as a back-up. Like this team in general due to its problems up front, the LBs did not control the run as well as needed to be done. However, when one looks at the sacks he made, and even took in a couple of IBTS, I think he looked pretty good. The Ezekial comments are a joke as seen in our acquisition of another MLB in Watson, and beyiond that I think IF there is an opening at MLB next year, if Crowell continues his progression from the step up as a pro he took last year, he will get a shot at MLB and may well do the job well if he steps it up another notch.

The interesting thing for me was that I actually left DC in 1989 (any case to be made for me being young back them is now totally laughable as I officially declared myself middle-aged when I hit 45 a couple of years ago and if I make to 90 I think thats pretty good) and moved to Buffalo. I did so because Buffalo had the greatest attraction in the world in that my lovely spouse was from here and wanted to be near her Dad and Mom. I actually was planning to work here, but found that I had built enough ties to do consulting work in DC and that actually with no a tough plane ride, the internet and modern communications, one can live a lo of places and still sell your services elsewhere. Its tough for youngsters because the have to go where the jobs and companies are. However, taking advantage of the middle created by commanding a national salary, but living in WNY (I once desribed housing here to a comparable home and quality of neighborhood in DC as buy one and get one free in terms of housing). If one can find your way toward collecting a national level wage, living here in Buffalo is not a bad financial situation at all.

This is actually a tough poll to chose from as I don't think any of these players is likely to have an outstanding year for his team next year (its actually a tough thing to measure as choosing what is a good year for these players is a fairly variable standard and it calls for comparing players at different positions). For lack of a really accurate measure of a good year, one can pick the measure of a Pro Bowl appearance as generally being a sign of a player having a good year (though clearly the Pro Bowl accolade is not a perfect measure at all, but generally if a player gets the nod he had a fairly good (though maybe not the best since there is a popularity aspect to voting). Its interesting that even though the Bills have acquired FAs like TKO and Sam Adams (or even Bledsoe for 2002) who met this standard, there are few Bills that have left here and achieved a Pro Bowl nod. One might leap to the conclusion that its because Bills players have not been that good the last few years, but actually given the accomplishments of Bills acquisitions like the ones mentioned above and the fact that some msde it here, but did not have we let them go actually points to some generally good decision-making about a player being done when we let him walk.

I see only three games where right now I am pretty sure we lose. Those are @ NE, at Chicago and @ Indy. Of the remaining 13 games, I think we end up favored in about half of them. It will not be because I think we're going to be that good, but because based on their past performance over the last several years, I think there is a good chance that Detroit, or Houston, or the Jets will be bad enough that they stand a reasonable chance of even being beaten by a bad team in their house. My question for folks is not whether they think the Bills will be bad or worse, but why do they have so much confidence in Houston, Detroit, or NYJ that they assign the Ws to them which a 3-13 or 4-12 finish by the Bills would likely mandate. Based on their past play, we have pretty good shots at NYJ, GB and probably TN at home. We even have reasonable shots at playoff teams like MN and SD at home *(unless they eat their cheeseburgers when they fly across country) and certainly at this point facing a 2005 non-playoff team like Miami or Jax is certainly a winnable game for us. For folks who pick this team to 3-13 or 4-12, rather than taking the easy way out and simply whining about the Bills why do they have faith in these opponents who seem pretty troubled based on their past performances in the real world. Even the Fish given their rich history of end of season implosions and events like Wicky getting the boot again should make one feel that the home (and actually probably even the road game) are far from definite losses even if the Bills are a bad team. What case do folks have for confidence in our opponents?

In general folks will have good days and bad days and its nice to see Nall have some good days after his last troubled outing so that he is in the normal context for his tryouts rather than having all bad days in practice which would likely write bust all over him. The key is to make sure that one has your good days in the ones that count (generally Sundays in the regular season) or during the exhibition games as there three QBs are dueling. It aounds like with first down then up performance by Nall, first up then down performance by Holcomb, and a continuation of OK but not earth shattering performance by JP, we remain on track for these men to keep dueling until pre-season performances decide this battle. The critical element which appears necessary for the Bills to achieve success, are a set of consistent good performances by one of these three against real opponents, and Jauron being patient enough to resist the declarations from some to choose somebody and designate a QB starter based on rep or practice work. He reallly needs to see these QBs prove themself on the field in the first two pre-season games and let the chips fall where they may in picking one of these three. In the end, I think it will matter more which way this funny shaoed ball happens to bounce in these games rather than anyone's assessment based on rep or past performance who should be our starting QB or not.

It makes perfect sense to me for us fans to hate Drew Rosenhaus for his antics (the fake call to WM during the draft) and for the tap dance hedid representing an idiot like TO. However, it also makes perfect sense to me for a player to hire him as an agent cause like it or not he produced good contracts under extremely bad conditions for both players. His job is not to be like by you or me. his job is to produce good contracts for the players who hire him. He certainly had a positive working relationship with TD as seen in his pick of and the incentive laden contract given to WM. As it is actually a whole team of Bills beyond TD who worked on the details of signing Rosenhaus represented players is does no surprise me at all that he has a positive working relationship with us or that Fletcher will profit (literally) from having DR represent him. Note to self: Do not sleep with Willis M and do not make any personal deals with Drew Rosehaus. However root like heck and a bills fan for WM and Fletcher to do well on the field.

Folks in the transplant community don't call them donor-cycles for nothin. Every American citizen has a Consititional right to be a moron, even if adds to the costs for all of us for hospital care and auto insurance.

I can see your points but my reaction is fear not. Concerned yes, but fear not. While many of the negatives you raise our true, there are also positives ranging from the ST being among the best (if not the best) in the league two years in a row. The D having a total meltdown last year, but finishing at least statistically high the two years prior to that and now a D guru as HC is changing the recently failed scheme. The O has been a disaster area and should be viewed as such until they prove something. Yet, all of this I think is rooted in the Bills frantic over-emphasis on the QB position since the end of Kelly's career. By force the team is going back to basics and dealing with the QB issue in terms of getting a number of average to mediocre talents rather than spending more dollars on trying to hit a homerun (which has caused dusasters like having to buyout Kelly, trading for Hobert, the RJ/DF flap, and TD banking too much on the young JP). Yet, even on O there are hopeful signs which in no way are a solution to our problems, but have a reasonable shot at taking a small ball approach of being better than the dismal state of 05. I think it hard to deny: 1, The likely current OL starters are not great players but look better than the MW/Bennie Anderson crew. Do you disagree? There are still big questions as to whether we have the horses to play back-up but there certainly are some strength in numbers as we hope to find 5 legit back-ups and development players for the PS from Preston, Gibson, Jerman, Butler, Pennington, McFarland, Geisinger, Thomas, Merz. etc. While this is no likely solution it should be better than last year. 2. None of the three QB prospects is likely to be an answer, but together it is likely that one of them will step up to hold the position. While I do not think that it is probable that JP will produce the form which got him picked by us, he did show some progress and potential in his first year mop-ups from his debacle when thrown into the NE game, to taking a needless penalty but stil successfully burning clock in his next appearance. His next appearance also got off to a rocky start, but taking a needless TO instead of a needless penalty was an improvement over his last troubled start and in the end he successfully led the team to a score. His progress in his first mop-ups fooled TD into cutting the inadequate but better than the young JP at QB. The meltdown as the Team recognized that TD had consigned the 05 team to training for JP rather than taking their best (even if it was bad it was their best) shot at winning. JP generally sucked last year, but there were flashed like his hook-ups with Evans against the Fins and his previous year's slow but steady progress that means while I think you cannot reasonably feel he probably will do it, it would also be foolish to simply right him off and say he cannot step up to adequacy. Holcomb demonstrated that he is a solid #2 with his play but also undersocred why he has never been consistent as a starter in the NFL. He has a smaller but still real chance of adequacy as a QB than JP. Nall is a wildcard, but his QB rating in his brief appearances and having sat and watched the master Favre makes him an unlikely but possible third shot. The kwy iIMHO will be the braintrust not falling into the same trap as Butler, TD and Ralph of handing the job to a player who has done nothing on the field and instead choosing a winner from how they actually perform. 3. The WRs Evans who has produced reasonably his first two years that him stepping up to #1 WR is not an outrageous notion. Betweem PP. Parrish and maybe Davis there are #2 prospects, and the loser of this battle joins Reed as players capable of being a #3. When you add Aiken, Fast Freddy, Nance and even Wilson as reasonable shots at #4 and #5 we should be able to produce 5 WRs from these 9 players. 4. WM ain't no team leader, but he is the fastest Bill to 2000 yards rushing in his career and actually has solid prospects for producing even better on the field if we have a good O scheme which uses him properly on 3rd downs. I see a larger RB question on whether we in fact have back-ups and an FB of the quality we want rather than gnashing my teeth at all about WM and OTA attendance. He simply will not be the traditionally stalwart RB we traditionalists love, but if he puts up 1250 rushing yards and catches the ball as a pro consistent with what he showed in college I couldn't care less about how many baby mommas he has made. I simply will not have sex with WM but will root for him like heck if he rushes and catches for us. On D, I like the move to the Cover 2 and the large chunk of great players led by old man Vincent we have as DBs. We have 5 starter LB slots and though Fketcher is 31, he has shown no signs of hitting the wal in terms of production as he easily led this team in tackles last year. TKO is a question mark as to whether he will come back at 100% but for this year 80% of TKO is better than 100% of many NFL LBs. I think Crowell actually was quite impressive as a fill in starter for Spikes last year and easily merited being extended. He finished second in tackles, got 3 sacks and even a couple of INTS. i dio not know what you want from a first year starter playing out of position from where he trained. Posey may be a gone, but gets a shot at long as there is any question about Spikes. The back-up corps of Stamer, Haggan and now Watson looks solid to me. The DL to me is the ?, but clearly Juron has something brewing as he is going to take on this task with his top 4 DTs on the depth chart maxing out at a traditionally puny 304 lbs. I think we plan to implement the Cover 2 in some exotic new way in terms of how the DTs are employed and our now reinforced LBs back them up to stop the run. I have no idea how this is going to work, but the good news is that former NFL Coach of the Year Jauron has forgotten more than I remember about D coaching. Likei said, there is a ton to be concerned about and I do not expect this team to make the playoffs this year. However, there are are reasonable prospects for it to be better than last year (injuries will tell the tale). I think the team is holding off spending cap money in hopes thy will at least be competitive this year and can them make targetted and defined big purchases in FA next year to even be a likely playoff team in 07.

Apparently, this is about to be done as the Bills are sening RB coach Studesville to FLA to talk with WM and to check out the scene. I think they already have a pretty good sense that WM's "apparent" conditioning was certaqinly the real deal in the past. It was all through his own workouts that he got himself into good enough condition after his horrendous injury to raise confidence in him being a 1st round choice and to whatever extent was a factor (the Bills docs being the lead factor) in him being a 1st round choice. Once he was a Bill, the oversight and direction of his rehab came from here, but alot of the work was on his own with constant report backs to the docs of his progress. Last year, WM again went to the U. and added definable lbs. and lowered hi body fat through these "apparent" (sounds real to me) workouts. As the U. workouts have gotten even more press this year, its fairly apparent what these players are doing. However, the move of sending the moutain to Mohammed seems like a reasonable course of action given: 1, The Bills have zero leverage to require and appearance or justification by WM as the NFL agreed to make these OTAs voluntary (theoretically even their "excusing" players from these practices can be argued by lawyers to cross the line of these voluntary sessions). If the Bills want to know they gotta go down to FLA. 2. Though I think building muscle mass is essential to survive the poundign required of a 30+ rush per game NFL RB, many fans are concerned about his increase in weight lowering his raw speed (what's his 40 time now?). I think the tradeoff is worth it as I would trade speed for durability in the is league, but if they are not satisfied with his workout regime, they have little choice but to got to his gym to sort through this. 3. WM seems to be pursuing an Ann Coulteresque business strategy where he is willing to say all sorts of stupid things just to get more media. I see no problem with him taking time out to go on Steven Smith's alleged entertainment show as long as he integrates this down time into an intelligent work out plan. However, his business strategy of getting notariety by making regular appearances to say dumb things on ESPN or more controlled but still hip-hop routines on NFL Network (the NFL as a unit seems happy to promote young athletes being hip-hop as part of its business strategy, but these business strategies and the Bills' football strategies are not the same thing. The promotion and WM taking full advantage of the voluntary nature of the workout is offensive to those of us with more traditional views of the NFL. However, one thing about the game is that it used to be a sport which happened also to be a business and now it is a business which also happens to be a sport. baby mommas, rap music, and hip-hop stuff was not how i was raised and ain't anything I'm interested in, but clearly in a deluge of money to the team owners and their majority partners in this eneterprise the NFLPA, my tastes have long been left behind by the demographic the NFL and NFLPA are marketing toward. I guess when I started hearing Springsteen and Jackson Browne on oldies stations that I knew that time had passed me by. It has too with WM's inclinations and marketing strategy.