Pyrite Gal

Part of the reason the Bills do not resign FAs is that they extend players such as Schobel, Crowell, McGee, Peters. etc. well before they even get to FA status. I think it is not a completely accurate indictment to claim they never sign people long term because they do and this is a more useful metric than totaling up the number of FAs who walked, In addition to guys they decided long ago they were unlikely to resign (including good players like Clements who they wrote off when they made the switch to a Cover 2 which does not employ his talents fully or Jennings who thank gosh they did not resign given how injury prone he was with us and it has gotten worse with SF who showed him the money to their dismay) there are case like Winfield who they seemed on track to resign and extend early but Milloy unexpectedly appeared on the market and they used the chunk of change set aside for a cheaper early resigning of AW to buy Milloy rather than start Coy Wire at SS after we had agreed to deals with Cota and Battle to be SS and both retired. A look at events reveals that them not resigning FAs is not as significant as it may appear to be.

NC is only worth that amount of a hit on our cap IF we were going to use him in a manner that allowed him to truly be a playmaker. However, in our Cover 2 the way we run it, the CB usually releases the WR to a safety after he goes 10-15 yards. This really cuts down on the CBs ability to make INTs and to generally be a playmaker as we saw last year when it was Fletch who led the team in INTs with 4 to NC's 3 and McGee dropped from leading the team in INTs in 05 to 0 playing CB with some difficulty in the first half of the season. NC actually seems to do better in a D like the zone blitz or even the old Walt Corey bend but don't break mode because this allowed him to play loose and read the QBs eyes and the routes to either jump them for an INT (a feat he pulled off once this year as it is hard to keep a good player down) or range all over the field looking for opportunities. He is relatively big for a CB at 6'1", and plays press coverage well. but I think this is one of the reasons they were pleased to get Youbouty who also is a 6 footer with a rep for being good at press coverage. The Bills seem to pretty fully recognize that NC is far and away the best CB on the Bills, but they seem to hope that McGee (he seemed to learn how to do the reads and play the Cover 2 style much more effectively in the second half of the season) and Youbouty or a second tier FA they should bring in to at least compete for the #2 CB will be adequate to pull off some of the great plays NC pulled off in short zone such as when he broke up a critical short pass play to force Houston to punt at the end of that game, This bet may be one that the Bills lose, but I think they decided to agree to not franchise Nate twice because they were virtually certain they were going to let him go after this season rather than pay him a top 5 CB salary and certainly not give him over 1/3 of the money we have to spend on FAs and to sign our own under the cash to cap accounting we have decided to do.

Willis has dropped to #30 on Kiper's list (which is far from perfect as he makes a bunch of mistakes but it is an indicator of the trend among pundits) and given that he was not even a 1st round choice in some mocks, it is legitimately a question of how far can the Bills trade down and get Willis. He is a good player as he received the Butkus award as college's top LB, but his stock has plummeted since he struggled with pass coverage against top notch talent in the Senior Bowl. I think his struggles actually make him a better candidate for the Bills to draft as it looks like he will need some time sitting on the bench and learning the NFL game in practice before anyone wants to trust him with the reins at MLB. I think our needs in the trenches on both sides of the ball are significant enough that I am reluctant to see us use the 1st round pick on a player whose main contribution to the Bills his rookie year is going to be learning the game (even if the take yet another DT in the first at least he will see PT in the DL rotation. It certainly appears that if we draft Willis with the idea of starting him at MLB, the D is gonna be painful to watch for a while as he learns how to play an NFL Cover 2 which requires him to both tackle like a DT (which I think he can do) and also cover like a safety (which was something we used the MLB heavily for last year as Fletch led the NFL in INTs by an MLB beating out both MC and McGee to lead the Bills in INTs.

I don't think its fair to accuse Nate of playing well simply because it was the season before he FA. He as due for FA after the 2005 season and he simply sucked that year.

While I think that the Bills will certainly not make a priority out of FA acquisition to the extent that they are not a real "danger" to win (or even make it to) the SB, I think it is a mistake prompted by the usual overly dramatic extreme statements the Internet is prone toward to claim that the Bills will not make at least a couple of big money signings this off-season. This is likely true because they have to do so under agreement of the CBA which forces them to lay out at least 85% of the total of the salary cap. This standard easily falls within the cash to cap budgeting system the Bills have selected and thus look for them to pour some major money into a few players pockets. Redding is a likely candidate to be a target for a portion of the Bills big bucks as his weight, playing style and past experience are exact;y in line with the Cover 2 and Jauron as the former HC of the the Lions knows Redding. He has the same flip-flop chops which will allow him to play either DT or DE and he may fit in either as a new replacement in our rotation left by the likely cut of Anderson and also make up for the potential loss of Kelsay if we do not resign him.

This seems like such a waste as having 2 RBs is very nice, but we have more basic needs in terms of getting to adequacy by improving ourselves in trenches where we need upgrades of starters before we start working on the french pastry of augmenting our second RB. We do have the option to let WM go next year if we chose to do this or to tag him and keep him if we choose to keep him. I don't think they would wander off into dickering with optional stuff regarding RB simply to satisfy fans who care more about him being an idiot as a person rather than focus on making more essential football based improvements. It becomes different if WM affects his fellow teammates, but all i see is they have not said anything to indicate this and WM is simply an irritant to some fans. Even this as long as his fellow players are not cheesed about it is fine because it ends up with more folks talking about the Bills even if is to lambaste WM their attitude as long as he does not impact his teammates is simply just spell the name right.

Actually we do not have good replacements for him. There is so much uncertainty in terms of our LB corps (yes, TKO is a rehab ? but also Crowell is- and Stamer too for that matter) and F-B is an FA that if the Bills docs judge it a physical possibility for TKO to come back, i think this is actually a good chance to take. The Bills docs have made good judgments on whether it was physically possible for WM to one day be a starter (they made good judgments on what was medically possible while judgments about his character are a different concern). TKO demonstrated with his workout effort last off-season that if the docs think it can be done with hard work, TKO will work hard. Is TKO the same as when he was younger? No, but then who is. If you do not get older you have made a mistake you cannot recover from.

All in all reality makes a big difference here and in response to Nanker's what would you prefer question above. I think all Bill's fan would prefer the obvious to keep or cut TKO and/or Fletch to produce the best result for the team in terms of W/L. What this reality actually is only a higher being knows for sure and the Bills' docs cannt be sure but certainly know a lot better than me, you, or anyone on TSW. Given that the medical staff made the correct call on WM's massive knee trauma, I certainly am willing to give the braintrust the benefit of the doubt in terms of making a judgment on whether to keep TKO or not based on whether they think he can recover. The good news for Bills fans is that if the docs judge a comeback as physically possible is TKO works hard and is committed then he showed he has the drive to do this.. My sense is that there appears to be no real replacement at MLB available to the Bills from FA, or the draft and that internal team development would involve moving Crowell inside and then trigger filling his hole with actually a larger potential pool of reasonable OLB candidates from FA (Adalius Thomas is my favorite) or the draft (Timmons or Poluszny). The internal development move may work, but it involves enough variables that I would prefer not to do it. With the expansion of the salary cap, neither paying TKO his salary if the docs judge it physically possible for him to come back (given advances in modern medicine I think he probably can but reality will tell) nor tagging Fletch seems like a bad idea to me. Of the two tagging Fletch seems more important. I would tag F-B rather than sign a long-term deal with him as he is on the wrong side of 30 and it is cheaper for us likely to do it this way if we are doing cash to cap accounting. Word is he will likely require an $8-10 million bonus to resign him long-term and if our accounting is cash to cap it is cheaper to tag him. If we take this course, drafting his heir apparent is more important and right now Willis may even drop to the 2nd round and if so he may be a player worth picking to train since I do not think he can produce well enough as a rookie to merit making him the MLB starter. We have to many fish to fry to spend our 1st on a player who merely sits and learns for the most part this year, but it becomes tempting if we are talking about our 2nd choice.

I think Marv is right that TKO is a big concern, but I think folks are jumping to a bif conclusion to assume this legitimate concern means he is gone. John from H has it right that 90% of the old TKO is better than basically all of what is a pretty weak crop of rookies in this years draft (no one thinks any of the LBs are top 10 players and in fact the Bills could likely trade down a few spots and still pick the first LB taken and the favorite of some fans Willis to replace TKO has seen his stock drop like a stone since he struggled in pass coverage at the Senior Bowl. The Bills simply have questions across the board with their LBs as both TKO and Crowell are coming back from injuries (Stamer as well) and it looks like we may have to tag Fletch if we want him to stay. KC's Mitchell appears to be the only vet MLB in FA. I think we kee[ TKO because we have to.

Ad it says in my post, I have not yet seen an article which does anywhere near an adequate job of explaining the cash to cap phrase but since the original poster asked for an article I thought this one which does explain some cap basics is a good place to start. I think you are correct that this does make a difference in that the rich can buy more than the poor (or to really state the reality, the really disgustingly rich can buy more than the merely disgustingly rich). The whole NFL ponzi scheme is fascinating to me exactly because it is a real world example of how when confronted by a threat to force them to actually pursue a free market when the NFLPA threatened to decertify itself after the got their butt kicked in the mid-80's replacement player fight, the NFL owners caved in from forcing a free market approach and instead bought into a fairly socialist approach embodied in the CBA. The whole stare down between the NFL and NFLPA this past year was the NFLPA with a real world example of how the NFL team owners had made more money than they probably imagined as being possible in the mid-80s by forming a partnership with the union rather than kicking their butt, they then forced the new CBA on the few disagreeing NFL team owners like Ralph which in essence not only reaffirmed the partnership but in giving the NFLPA 60.5% of the total gross receipts, the players are really the majority partners in this agreement. It really is fascinating to me that a more sustainable and by many measures a better product is produced from cooperation rather than combativeness. Those who seem to treat free market approaches as though they were a god, really are proved wrong in this particular case.

I think there is some confusion and contradiction because actually there is a difference between the concept of cash to cap which is a method of accounting which any team can choose to employ and the actual salary cap which every team cannot spend over the cap and must spend at least 85% of the salary cap amount as salary to the players. If they do not meet this amount bad things happen though I have no idea what they are as no team has ever come close to failing to meet the minimum payment. Basically cash to cap means that a team will count every dollar the spend in a given year and plan not to spend beyond the level of the salary cap that year. What this specifically means is that for the 2007 season where the salary cap is set at $109 million the Bills have unilaterally decided not to spend more than $109 million with this season. This has ramifications for team building however, in that in order to actually calculate the salary cap, a team is allowed to prorate money paid to players as a bonus over the entire life of the contract. Thus, let's say hypothetically Nate Clements is given a $16 million bonus for the 4 year contract he signed (the hypo numbers were chosen to make the math easy and not to suggest NC's likely contract), his salary cap hit for this bonus will be $4 million per year plus his actual base contract payment for each year. However, because the Bills have unilaterally decided to do their accounting based on only spending in a single year to the level of the salary cap, the Bills are willing to layout $109 nillion this year minus the $16 million check they wrote to NC for his bonus payment. Where this has an impact on team building is that when you choose the cash to cap accounting method. it prevents you from paying out a bonus to a player who you have given a lengthy contract to at a level lower than what the salary cap allows you to pay. A team like the Deadskins might chose to pay out several huge bonus checks to several players even if the total laid out in salaries that year exceeds the cap (total payments which exceed $109 million in this year) because they are not in violation of the salary cap as they have distributed those bonuses over the life of the contract. It is not a problem for them to sign NC to a $16 million bonus because they only have a hit on their salary cap of $4 million. They then use the $12 million to sign other players. The Bills on the other hand because they have unilaterally decided to only spend cash to the level of the cap now only have $109 million minus the $16 million bonus payment to pay the rest of their salaries and pursue FAs because we are only gonna lay out cash to the level of the cap. This choice has even more real implications in the out years, particularly if a team chooses to cut the players they have given long term contracts to. Let's say that the Skins are disappointed with a guy they signed (lets call him Levar), When they part ways with Levar, be it by trade or cutting him the remainder of his original bonus accelerates into the current cap year. This "dead money| counts against the salary cap in the year they cut him and the Skins have that much less money to pay new bonuses or existing players. Meanwhile the Bills who have accounted for all this cash as it was paid are theoretically in a position to once again spend cash to the cap level and can do so. This assumes that the Bills are not only using cash to cap for their accounting, but also are taking the steps necessary to actually have NC's entire salary count against the cap that year. It does not really matter if they have an option to count it one way or the other as they can simply give NC his $16 million not as a bonus to be prorated but pay it to him as base salary (MB dis this with Winfield as they had the cap room to do this paying him $12 million as base salary rather than as bonus. The Skins have been able to do things they way they have paying several large bonuses because the Skins team is such a money machine (their waiting list for season tickets is more than twice the size of their stadium( and because Snyder has the personal wealth and cash flow to write out these large checks he does so. In addition, they made a bet that the salary cap would go way up and it has so they have enough money to absorb tons of dead space in their salary cap and also pay new bonuses which borrow from the future to get players now. In the end, it all comes out in thr wash and in the big picture nobody gets out of this life alive so robbing from the future to pay for the present has its advantages. Irs sort of a giant pyramid scheme but as long as interest keeps going up then no team or player is the last person in line so they borrow from the future. The Bills accounting choice of cash to cap seems to give little team building advantage and in fact they do run the risk of actually coming close to not meeting the 85% salary cap total as if they were to pay a $16 million dollar bonus to BC one year and deal with this in a cash to cap manner, the next year they must make a similar payment in salary to one or several players or they run the risk of not hitting the 85% mark. This is how it works as best as I can tell, but even the NFL experts are still working to figure the cap out so I do not claim perfection at all in my understanding. I have not seen an article which adequately defines the cash to cap phrase as actually it appears relatively rare for a team to adopt it as publicly as the Bills have. Nevertheless, one of the better explanations of the salary cap can be found at the Ask the Commish site at > http://www.askthecommish.com/salarycap/ <. Good reading!

He fooled you into believing what he says so give him credit for that. Believe me, anytime you do not want to answer a question from the press just say you are dumb and all the legends in their own mind in the press corps will believe it and you get a free pass on that question.

The Bills should identify three players (likely the capts of the O, D, and ST) and steal a page from what worked for the Sabres and market themselves as the hardest working team in the NFL. Likely using JP from the offense, Moorman who in addition to be a Pro Bowler has demonstrated he is quite camera friendly, and F-B if he is still around, or perhaps TKO if he isn't should trade on the athleticism of each of these guys to promote the product. The "hardest working" moniker needs to be a reality or it will not ultimately fly, but given the maniacal TKO effort last off-season which led to him actually appearing for the first play and registering a sack (and likely actually working himself too hard and fast and straining his hammy), Moorman twice making the Pro Bowl and actually being a multi-sport athlete in college, and JP who it is said is already studying the playbook and working hard (my significant other actually saw him at her health club working out on a grav machine and was impressed by him busting his butt on a very high setting) so they can actually make a case of working hard even though they are all overpaid. At any rate this marketing approach worked for the Sabres as it fits the blue collar Buffalo style and actually does not guarantee victory simply hard effort and its tough to go wrong with that. Its what GW should have done when he first got here rather than saying his team was all about getting to the playoffs and winning. When they finished 3-13 you could hear the crickets chirping.

The interesting thing I think is that TKO worked too hard last off-season because of his intense commitment to want to be back Day 1. As Marv suggested in the press conference, it was likely the overwork that he did trying to force himself back to his old form which may well have led to having nagging injuries like the hammy strain which cost him a few games. While he shouldn't simply sit around the house, i hope he takes it easier on himself this off-season.

For each of these players whom we must replace I think the preference would be that we have at least one candidate to adequately replace them on the roster and also we acquire someone. If we have two candidates on the roster we are in good shape and if we have no candidate on the roster we are in bad shape and need to acquire at least one (though this is dicey as you must count on this player) and probably two candidates to give you the oft needed back-up. My sense of where we are with each of them is: Kelsay: Probably the least worry of these four as we have co-starter Denney in place already and folks seem high on Hargrove as a swing player who can fill the LDE depth chart if necessary. Of our FAs and with our significant cap room, Kelsay is probably the most cheaply resigned of these four. This is probably the loss we could most easily upgrade in replacing him. Fletch: I think this is actually going to be the most difficult replacement issue we have. This is true not because F-B is so great, but because the FA choices at MLB seem fairly limited (KCs Mitchell seems to be about the best available MLB) and this draft appears to be pretty weak at the LB position with no choice being a top 10 pick and potentially going above 15 before the first LB is taken and after struggling pass coverage at the Senior Bowl Denny has even slipped to the second round according to some pundits. Given some talk I've seen which have him getting an $8-10 million bonus for a longer term deal, the smart cash to cap move may be to franchise him as apparently the top 5 average salary is about $7 million and to acquire someone to be trained to take over for him next year as #2 on our depth chart. Clements: Particularly with our decision to adopt a cash to cap accounting method, signing NC makes little sense in terms of making the Bills better. With Samuel getting tagged, the market will likely give NC at least a $16 million bonus and having one player take significantly over half the funds we have for FA is not a good football move. The good news for us is that while the Cover 2 works better with a very good corner like NC, the way we play it does not require a great CB to make it work. NC easily being our best CB was seen last year when opposing OCs chose to pick on McGee to the extent that he ended up getting benched because as best as I could tell he was not reading the miscues of our rookie safeties well enough and would cut off coverage at 15 yards as a CB generally does in a Cover 2, but a good enough CB recognizes when his safeties are out of position and particularly if there is no one coming into his short zone he should recognize this and continue on with the WR running the fly pattern (actually NC seemed to make this error on one TD but McGee made it several times and got benched). The good news again though is that the benching did seem to adjust McGee's attitude and improve his play and by the final 8 games OCs seem to respond by also going after Clements a bit as well. The key for the Bills is that we have three CB slots (LCB, RCB and the nickel) and actually there are 3 possibilities on the roster (though I do not think these players are actually good enough to fill all these roles: McGee- new #1 CB- he played well enough to fill this role in the last 8 games, but his failure in the first 8 makes this a dicey proposition for us. Youbouty- I am comfortable that he is good enough to play the nickel but it will be a stretch for him to be our #2 CB. Greer- Can play the nickel but little chance he is good enough to start. I think if we pick up a second tier FA like Harper, Macklin or RFA Babineaux and one of our folks steps up (Youbouty or if we are able to resign Thomas) I think our talent does not come near to equaling what we had with Clements but should be adequate enough to play CB in a Cover 2. TKO- Some seem to have drawn the conclusion from Marv expressing caution about TKO that he is done and about to be cut. He did not produce last year at the great levels we were used to and I think Marv is right in that he was such a maniac about recovering from the achilles injury that it likely led to other injuries like the hammy pull. However, I think its premature to write him off. Still I think the prudent thing to do would be to acquire another LB who after we tag F-B is in a position to back him up and be trained to take over at MLB. The presence of another eventual starter with the back-ups we have in Ellison and Coy Wire and rehabbing Crowell and TKO would give us 6 LBs with folks like Stamer, Haggan and Manning still on the roster so i do not feel bad about LB at all. The loss of these 4 (3 more likely IMHO) would be a problem but one which is solvable with the roster and resources we have.

Yep, definitely excellent numbers. The amazing thing about him from a fan perspective is that amongst the TSW folk the number are definitely respected and there is precious little talk of us needing an upgrade (the we are doooomed crowd does not allow rationality to spoil their rants). However, the talk that really acknowledges he is just short (he is missing the public acknowledgment) of establishing himself as one of the "elite" WRs has generally not been there. I think he deserves spoken consideration of this point which goes beyond the usual homer adulation as: 1. He put up these numbers working in an offense which most agree was simplified and held back by the braintrust as JP got his footing and to keep games close. 2. Folks who are disappointed in Peerless's work or claim he is a weenie who rounded off routes need to also acknowledge that he produced his numbers while not having a feared (or inadequate in so0me views) #2. 3. Folks who whine about Wilis need to also acknowledge in the same voice that his production came without a huge run threat. 4. Though he is not consistently among the elite, their are episodes such as his 3 TD game against the Fins last year or his amazing 2 70+ yard TD reception game where his real world production was among the best in the NFL all year. He and JP clearly have a chemistry and Evans production and JPs potential certainly make it not irrational to express hopes that they may become one of the best pairings in the NFL.

I'm not sure what the Spin is for me on this since I really have little agenda regardong NC but hoping the Bills do well with him or without him/ My sense is though that NC is a very good player who I have enjoyed watching and I think that particularly with Samuel franchised and off the market that NC is the most desirable CB out there. That being said I am not freaked at all that it appears he is gonna leave this team as I think their are myriad ways that he can be replaced in our scheme and still yield comparable results. I guess one piece of bias I do have and if one want to call this conclusion spin then so be it. I like NFL football exactly because it is the ultimate team sport and I feel that no individual player cannot be replaced. I find the hyperventilating going on about NC mostly amusing as while I think he is a good player who at times can be very good and deserve the moniker playmaker he has taken on, I do not think Nate was robbed (and I see few objective sources making the case he was) mot making the Pro Bowl this year. He had some very good games this year (the game where Chambers has zero catches and his work against Marvin Harrison was top notch) but as an opponent he would not scare me (now facing Deion at the peak of his game was a scary thing) and at least part of his shut down status was that their was such a disparity in play between him and McGee early in the season that it was simply a better deal for opposing OCs to challenge McGee rather than challenge NC. The Bills will get the relief of a couple of factors in replacing NC 1. McGee is much improved in his CB play- No one would mistake him for a consistent shutdown CB, but definitely he reversed the bad play which got him benched and he was playing well enough in the final 8 games that finally Clements got to see a bit more action as teams were not looking as quickly to exploit McGee. I think his improvement is something reasonable to see as his problems were not that he was simply overmatched athletically, but he seemed to have problems shifting from the old Bill bend but do not break style to the Cover 2 press style. He seemed to calm down a bit when he was forced to sit and not make as many poor reads. In particular, he seemed to have difficulty realizing that the rookie safeties were going to make mistakes and he did not make some fairly obvious reads that the safety was going to be late coming over and he did not stick with the WR going deep when he should have particularly as he was releasing the WR when there was really no one coming into the short zone for him to break his coverage and switch to. One advantage for theCB in the Cove 2 is that the assignment is not that difficult as the Cover 2 CB is not required to play alot with his back to the CB or run with fleet footed WRs as unless the CB make a read that he should go with a WR running the fly, the responsibilities are to cover the short zone. 2. The relative lack of complexity of the Cover 2 for the CB will also make it easier for a youngster like Youbouty to replace NC, It is also quite doubtful that this youngster will be a shut down CB but though this is a great thing to have it simply is not essential that a CB be a shutdown guy in the Cover 2, NC made great plays like his one against Houston which was pivotal in holding on for that win, however, it was not a phenomenal play that few corners can make and I hope and expect McGee in his second year of Cover 2 play and even possibly Youbouty whose collegiate strengths lend themselves to press coverage can actually make the good but not extraordinary plays NC pulled off. 3. Our cap room will help as the Bills should be able to shop for the second tier CB necessary to play at the CB level we need to make the Cover 2 work and even better reinforce the DT rotation to get some more penetration and pressure on the QB in passing downs. In our second year running the cover 2 and with more consistent generation of pressure from the rush, i think we will not need or be so dependent on having a shutdown skilled CB. Folks are reasonable to worry that McGee may bit as good next season the last half of this past season. After all NC was pretty unproductive in 2005 before rebounding to have a good season this year. If NC could sometimes be bad then it is reasonable to also fear that mcGee can also be off again, However, mostly I think this shows the importance of the Bills acquiring another CB in FA to give us a plan B since though I expect Youbouty to be able to step in as a nickel it will be a great leap for him to be good enough to be our number 2. The key to this decision is that NC is not worth spending half or more of our existing FA money on, This team will likely be a better producer using this cash on a second tier CB and reinforcing this team in the trenches.

The other thing which happens at the Combine which generally does not and mostly cannot happen (without violating NCAA amateur rules) is that the GM's and personnel guys making decision actually get to meet and interview the players and look them in the eye. The decision to draft a player is a high stakes investment often involving millions of dollars in precious resources. The combine is a unique collection of most of the potential draftees being in one location so teams can take the time as they try to figure out whether the character of a player makes him a Peyton Manning or a Ryan Leaf. One can look at the tapes, get real weights and measures of the height of players, and watch them work out in not simply 40 yard dashes but also shuttle runs and special test designed to measure true agility and athleticism. Yet, all of these stats can pale in importance to this one time chance to get to develop as much as one can in a short interview a feel for whether a player is gonna make the effort to be a champion or whether as soon as the get a big payday all the real play is gone. If one is going to spend the big bucks on a choice this activity is easily justifiable.

was his specific comments about our WRs. I was fairly surprised by them not in terms of his assessment of them (which I actually agree with which is a likely sign they are wrong) but instead that he was so specific and effusive in his praise for them. Even I would not give them such a whole sale endorsement, but it seems pretty clear that unless Marv is simply lying about this item as part of an effort to fool our opponents, it seems pretty unlikely that those posters who have endorsed the concept of drafting Meacham or are interested in finding a new #2 possession receiver are not likely to find much satisfaction from the draft or FA. Marv specifically talked about: Evans being a true #1 WR- I agree PP having had a good season- I generally agree as I think the 49 catches he was credited with was certainly adequate for a #2, but I do not think he was used properly as he was employed as a possession receiver and I think Fairchild has a lot more he needs to show and if JP has shown enough that he can be liberated a bit PP seems to have some speed left which not taken advantage of in our O. Parrish- He sited Parrish as likely having some more output to show- I agree and the several bursts he showed such as the TD against the Jets is something we need to have Fairchild run the O to produce more of. Reed- He also specifically praised Reed's production- A agree also that he showed a lot finally since a very good freshman campaign. I love his run after the catch potential as seen when he bulled his way to a TD in one of our final games. Overall, though I think they deserved praise for their play, I do not think Fairchild really designed an O or called the games effectively for much of the season. This may have been because JP needed to get his feet under him so he dumbed down the O attack. However, the deed seems to be done and we need to push JP to push the O more next season. This may have been because our OL was in disarray. However, this unit is much improved since the mid-season shake-up and with the addition of a vet guard and development of Butler to challenge and prod Pennington, this unit may actually become good. This may have been because he never found an effective way to involve the RBs in the pass attack. However, I think if they simply cut Shelton who was no Sam Gash they running attack will be more productive in a single back set with a spread and Evans, PP, and Parrish providing scary speed which forces opposing Ds into the nickel. In addition, I think more empty backfield with Reed lining up as a 4th WR who picks on coverage if the other team goes to the dime or maybe even shift into the backfield and we run is a better approach. At any rate, the comments were interesting.

Given that both worst to first (see NYJ) and seemingly first to worst (see Tampa Bay) are possible in this league like never before, I would not assume from the Bills schedule as it stands right now that it will be the toughest or the easiest.

A good article as it provides information which I cannot know for sure as a "mere" fan as it provides a glimpse at the perspective taken by folks who are really on the inside. This perspective which seems to view the feelings within OBD as far more relaxed and like a breath of fresh air under Marv compared to life under TD is great to hear. This perspective is embodied in the quotes from Coy Wire and I really hope everyone feels this way for the most part and not just the guys who recently got millions of bucks shoveled their way (or probably hundreds of thousands of bucks in Wire's case). The thing which interested me most was where Allen Wilson wrote: Levy is not your typical NFL GM. He's not that familiar with the salary cap. He has no involvement in contract negotiations, and prefers it that way. His sole responsibility is dealing with personnel issues. He talks daily with the coaches, scouts, Assistant GM Tom Modrak and pro personnel director John Guy about players on the team and those they are interested in acquiring. Levy actually sounds like one the TSW faithful in that he is offering comments about this move or that move. The difference though is that when he says "Just get 'er done" about something, while us folks on TSW are really powerless for the most part, if whatever happens does not work out he can fire the guy in charge of the decision.

I do not think the rookie cap numbers are set yet as it is unclear how many draftees a team will actually need to sign. Cap to cash seems to refer to the entire salary cap for a team so this includes the part of that total cap which is set aside by the league for signing rookies. Specifically the rookie total is an enforceable rule set by the NFL by agreement under the CBA which assures that a team will not rob the vets to pay the rookies. However, the cap to cash # is not a league wide rule but is a choice made by an individual team about how they are gonna do their own accounting. The Bills and Ralph have decided to meet the cap rule by deciding to spend their money and account for it based on their real world outlays that year and have decided not to exceed the total cap amount (appx. $109 million dollars for this season) of outlays for this year. The Bills could actually achieve the cap to cash standard they are using for their own accounting and actually still also be in violation of the CBA requirement that teams must spend at least 85% of the cap total in a given year. Under the salary cap if a team pays out a bonus to a player, it actually is amortized over the life of the contract, Thus, lets say hypothetically that the Bills agree to a 4 year extension of MCs contract and give him a $16 million bonus (again this is hypothetical and my guess is the market will give NC very different numbers than these I chose for convenient math). Nate's actual cap hit for a given year will be the actual base salary paid him in a given year plus $4 million as the bonus is amortized over the length of the contract. Typically, contracts will be backloaded with a large base salary in the final year which in reality simply forces the team and the player to agree to a new deal or simply choose to cut the player rather than pay him an exorbitant final year salary. Thus a player like Champ Bailey may agree to a $60 million dollar contract but all he really sees is the huge bonus (which gets prorated over each year of the deal even though he gets all this money up front) plus a base salary each year which can be as small as the NFL vet minimum (and often is so that the team has more money to spend on building a team). A team may meet their cash to cap goals as they count the $16 million bonus paid to as part of the cash outlay goal of laying out no more than $109 million. However, if the team has enough long term deals where bonus money is actually pro-rated, they need to exercise care so that their actual cap hit for the year does not drop below the 85% mandated by the CBA (again for example the actual cash to cap outlay of the team for NC that season is the $16 million plus his annual salary that year, however their actual cap number is only diminished by $4 million plus his annual salary). This is the extreme case but one can see that it does not take too many deals such as this where a team may meet its self-chosen cash to cap standards but because $12 million of the Nate bonus does not even count against the cap they need to make sure they are in fact paying out 85% of the total cap number to the players each year ($92.65 million) in salaries to the players each year or they are in violation of the CBA. This issue can be easily avoided if the team chooses to do what MN did with Antoine Winfield and not pay him a bonus but give him all the money up front as base salary, In this case the entire $16 million outlay plus base salary would not only be their cash to cap allocation but as base salary is not pro-rated this entire amount counts against the cap. However, the team will be required the next season to once again get to 85% of the cap in salary expenditures and will ladle the money out the door in the appropriate way to meet this requirement. In the end, as the market adjusts to pay higher salaries as by agreement the players are entitled to 60.5% of the total gross income teams will run right up against the cap as they compete in the marketplace to buy the best talent. The cash to cap language simply describes a method a team chooses to do its accounting and management and it really is a different thing from the total salary cap number or the rookie pool within than cap number. Thanks for sitting through this recitation which I am making merely to remain facile in thinking and talking about the salary cap (within my family I am considered the familial source for cap info when these issues come up when we talk Bills stuff, though interestingly to me as we gathered for dinner before the latest play at Studio Arena- a nice rendition of Steinbeck's Of Mice and Men BTW- we talked salary cap a little bit when the conversation turned to a Sabres discussion).

This result is not surprising as it was often the case that Schulz seemed to lead if not then finish ranked very high up among the Bills INT leaders, but I swear to a higher force that many of his INTs seemed to look like the QB would make a lousy pass to far from his intended receiver and it would then go straight to Jones who also tended to be horribly out of position to cover the WR, but fortunately both he and the ball were out of position to the same location. I know that this certainly was not what was really happening and that Jones deserves a lot of credit for being opportunistic and when the pass was tipped or the throw was otherwise poorly thrown he was johnny on the spot quite often and would make the INT. He deserves credit for those picks because in the end we got the ball on a turnover (which are often all important to game outcomes) and he got the pick. However, I think part of the reason that I (and I think other Bills fans) looked askance at his play because while he threw his body around with wreckless abandon it often seemed that it was a fellow teammate who had made the initial hit that ended up getting hit (and sometimes hurt) as Kurt flew into the pile. Schulz deserves credit for being opportunistic, but i do not think anyone would mistake him for a good cover guy who could watch and jump routes or whom QBs feared to throw against or receivers feared his coverage. More often than not I feared for his fellow teammates with Kurt flying around with total abandon.

A lot of this a question of how you budget this rather an absolute amount. The Bills will maintain the right to amortize or not based on how they decide to pay out the money. For example MN signed Winfield abd they had a lot of room under the cap and rather than paying him his money as bonus they simply paid it as base salary and thus applied it to the cap for one single year rather than amortizing it over several years. My guess is that the Bills will follow cash as cap as a budgeting tool, however, if an opportunity such as Lawyer Milloy suddenly hitting the market appears, my guess is that the Bills will do what it is necessary to acquire a player they have a football need to acquire.

There is no doubt that Clements was a contributor to victory in several games last year and IMHO there is no doubt that Clements is a very good player who I think if he makes the right selection for a new team he will likely return to the Pro Bowl once again. However, the question is not whether NC is a good or even a very good player, the question is whether he is worth a well into double digit bonus payment and particularly with a ownership decision by the Bills to go with a cash to cap accounting and budgeting method whether this player is going to be worth it to the Bills the massive payment he is set to receive in the market. I think the answer is pretty clearly no and it really is no when one considers the role that the CB plays in the Cover 2 in order for it to be a productive D. i do not think anyone would argue that one can play the Cover 2 with only 9 players so I do not think anyone should be surprised that Clements made a number of game-saving plays last year. The question is whether his game-saving plays were the type of plays that only a top quality corner could make (which Clements was last year though he was no where near that level the year before that). I do not remember the particular plays so if you do I would appreciate being educated about them. You get burned unless you change up the plays and the implementation of the scheme from time to time. However, generally in the cover 2 (or Tampa 2 we tend to run) the CB does not have deep coverage and lets the receiver go when he leaves the short zone or the corner perceives he is leaving the short zone and another receiver is coming in underneath to take advantage of the clear out. If the very good critical plays made by NC last year were on short routes (15 yards an in) the expectation of Fewell is that a second tier corner we pick up or Youbouty can make those types of play. If they were longer downfield passes then it happens that the Bills were changing up the regular Cover 2 and the other team tried to take advantage of NC's ability to run with the WR and got burned doing this. As far as Youbouty goes I saw very little intelligent speculation last year that the braintrust thought he could not cut it. In fact on the contrary, folks seemed to realize that Youbouty did not play because he missed virtually all of pre-season when his Mom who raised him and his siblings as a single parent died and Youbouty was the oldest kid and took time off to go back home as leadership of his family was thrust upon him at the tender age of 20 or so. if in fact, he had left his underage siblings to fend for themselves and he simply sent them big checks from his 3rd round pick slot, I'd actually have questions about the quality of his character if he chose hanging out with the boys over his family duties. Once he came back after the season had begun, I think the braintrust was faialy impressed by how fast he picked things up despite missing practice and with the coaches more concerned about preparing for games than teaching a rookie. The coaches saying this was more than just the positive chatter they do about plyers, they trusted his play enough that he was even a starter against the Jets amd the D with him playing a critical role against a QB with no arm but a good head. The proof was in the pudding and he did a good job for a rookie. The scouting reports on Youbouty are that folks though he should have stayed in school which apparently is why he dropped to the 3rd round because he has first round physical talents. I actually prefer that he got schooled as a Bill rather than in another year in college and I expect him to really be able to take the nickel spot this season and perhaps be our #2 CB. We'll see. As far as the big picture, the current cap is a bit over $100 million. if NC get a Champ Bailey contract, while the entire $50-60 will not be budgeted against the 07 cap as most of this is future salaries, the entire amount of cash paid out this year will be budgeted against the cap in our budget even though it will be prorated over the life of the contract for cap calculation purposea. Thus given the bonus NC will receive up front almost 1/5 of our total cap amount would go to this one player and he is not worth 1/5 our budget. This is why virtually all feel NC is gone and given that our CBs will be asked to play coverage in the short zone, it actually emphasizes what Youbouty does well (he is a 6 footer with a rep as a very competitive person who is a good handfighter which lends itself to press coverage. Though he was also a track athlete in college and seems to have the speed to run with people, his rep is that he still needs some work doing coverage with his back to the QB. In addition to emphasizing the strongest parts of his game with press coverage the Cover 2 will minimize the weakest part of it. These are the variable that make letting NC walk work for the Bills.