Pyrite Gal

It actually depends a lot on what style of Cover 2 you play in terms of what you are looking for from a DT. The style we play is called by some a Hybrid Cover 2 as it is actually more like a D known as the Tampa 2 for the Bucs who pioneered it. In the Tampa 2, the deep cover is not only provided by the two safties, but they actually divide the field into thirds with the MLB providing coverage in the deep zone. This is the basic difference between the two but the two models of DT play are more or less defined by whether you are using a big or big DTs as run stuffers whose job mostly is to take up space and hold their ground, or the type we seem to have adopted which are the smaller but quicker DTs who shoot the gap, get into the backfield and either disrupt running plays or even get sacks. As far as your specific question, the person you ask about, Jimmy Wilkerson is a DE and not a DT so the DT question does not apply. We are not going to pick him up because between Schobel (who just made the Pro Bowl), Kelsay (who we just extended), Denney (who we reached an extension deal with last year) and Hargrove (who we just traded a draft choice to get) are our DEs and the cupboard is full. Again getting back to the DTs where we are likely to have a roster opening as it is generally assumed Anderson will not remain a Bill long, we have gotten players who are the lighter quick penetrating type but our run D was not productive last year and clearly could use some help. The thought is that if we acquire a DT who may be a little bigger than the norm like an Alan Branch that he can operate primarily as a run stuffer but still be a quick enough player to penetrate and disrupt as needed. Okoye to some extent was thought of in the same way initially as he made his rep as a run stuffer and his playing weight ran 315+ in college, However, he showed up for the Senior Bowl at 287 and there and in the combine he was effective at light weights so interest in him is even higher. Between the large investment in penetrator Triplett (which did not pay large results yet), the surprising performance but still not there yet Williams and the truncated season but should still develop McCargo the Bills may actually go with a later pick at DT, but maybe not as Jauron is a D minded guy and even if the D had the lead in the draft last year, the OL was the focus of FA and maybe we go Okoye if he drops to us.

The draft experience with the Bills picking Whitner goes to show that even draft weekend is too soon to hit the panic button. All sorts of folks got their panties up in a wad over the Bills picking a safety with pick #8 (the heresy of it all) when actually even though I was initially disappointed to not see us invest in the trenches with a pick of N'gata , it did not take long for me to see that the overall draft looked pretty good. Even better, when the real world began to emerge as the season took hold and it became clear that the Bills had found several starters on the second day of the draft, this last draft has become one of the best Bills drafts (IMHO) in a long time. It's still too early to draw conclusions but my sense is that one can panic reasonably about the 2007 draft sometime around 2010.

Some folks have a "character" concern due to a rape allegation against him which did not lead to any charges being formally filed. I have zero idea whether this was a serious problem he bought his way out of or it was simply a goldigger after a little of his likely scratch, but the thought is that in either case it may not bode well for him as a character guy. The team interview with him which took place at the Combine will likely make the difference. The Bills and Marv have shown with their drafting of Butler that a single incident is not necessarily a character disqualifier for a player.

I didn't bother to sort through the whole thread, but below is a website where you can enter your name and it officially translates into your name in Tolkien's Hobbit World http://www.chriswetherell.com/hobbit/ For example yours truly translates as: Orgulas Sandybanks of Frogmorton I had not been to the site in a while and apparently since my last visit it will also translate your name into an elven name. My elf name is Turgon Telemnar

I think the disagreement here is that some (and I count myself among them) do not fell at all that this team desperately needs a "good" (whatever you mean by that) CB, The Cover 2 the way we employ it can actually be adequately manned by a player whom I would judge to be a second tier CB (and what I mean by that is a fairly average starting CB who could only get to the Pro Bowl with an airline ticket to Hawaii he paid for and a ticket to the game). Everyone wants to have a good CB, but the Bills were smart to agree not to franchise MC a second time in exchange for a promise of labor peace from him because they did not give up anything for getting NC to agree to follow the letter of the CBA and simply play last season. There is no way the Bills would (or should) pay what the market would give NC to play CB because no CB is gonna be able to make plays in our Cover 2 which would justify either the cap hit the market would give him for a contract or even the cap hit of the average of the top 5 CBs if we franchised him again this year. We got another on point example of how the CB position as we play it denies a playmaking CB the opportunity to produce when Dre Bly publicly announced he was leaving Detroit as an FA because he hated playing CB in a Cover 2 which was designed by Jauron, As it stands right now, the Bills actually could go into the season with our CBs being McGee, Thomas, Youbouty and Greer and actually that foursome could adequately man our CB needs. I myself would be more comfortable if we had signed an FA a little better than Thomas to challenge Youbouty for the #2 CB spot. but this still may happen and even if it does not happen, if the coaches know something we do not know (which I am sure they do since they have forgotten more about football than most of us have learned) we could be OK with our current for if (Youbouty actually merited a 1ast round choice last year as many mocks indicated and he is actually a Leon Hall level player with a year's pro experience, or Thomas really has more to offer than most of us guess. or the real deal about McGee what he showed in the second half of last year rather than his sorry performance in the 1st half. I hope we get another CB but a cheap FA or a 4th round choice would seem to me to fit our needs better than a 1st round pick which is better spent on a real football need by the Bills. Nick Harper and Jason David were quite adequate as CBs in the Colts Cover 2 and FA Harper was definitely viewed as a step down from the most sought after CBs like Nate Clements or Assante Samuel. The Bills simply do not have a desperate need for a CB unless folks are caught up in the idea that we must replace Nate Clements with a similarly skilled player. if that was the Bills need then they would have signed NC last year when they could have had him far more cheaply. Instead they decided way back when that they were going to go forward without paying the cost a CB of that skill level requires whether he is an FA or the slot a 1st rounder commands.

A lot of this depends on what type of offense we are going to run. Fairchild did not do an outstanding job of running a productive O last year which I think happened for a range of reasons: 1. Most important we really scaled back the O scheme to not take extraordinary risks because we did not think JP could handle it. 2, There was poor play from a number of different positions with WM being the favorite whipping boy, but Shelton was probably the best argument we had for going with a one back set, The TEs shared in not being very productive and though Royal was acquired primarily die to his blocking skill the run game was not productive (though general OL problems are probably more the reason why) and in addition, their were glaring plays like the one where Royal completely failed to even try to drag his foot on one play where his hands made a nice catch but he was out of bounds/ Overall, Cieslak may be an answer to these player problems as he filled in nicely as a FB in a reserve role. I could see us getting another TE in with the idea that he will compete with Everett who likely stays due to contract and potential unless someone takes the job away. A second day pick or a low cost FA might be the ticket.

Unfortunately there is no real answer which is specific beyond it depends, There are simply so many variables involved if one really wants to sort this out that it is a multi-variable equation which defies easy solution despite what the ESN driven pundits and the fantasy league "experts" say. This is why many of the most high profile pundits simply list their rankings of players rather than saying who will be picked by whom as they usually hold together until about the 10th pick and then someone does something unexpected and the entire draft is altered because someone is available whom all logic said they would be gone. The question which leads this thread strikes me as so obvious because it sets as an assumption that at least 4 guys thought by most pundit to be gone by #12 are still around. In this case it becomes relatively obvious to a Bills braintrust which would have called the 1st round a success if they got any one of these guys that they can easily trade down several spots and still get a player who makes the round successful. The real loser in this equation would likely be the vets as our rookie cap goes up and thus lowers the amount of money available in a cash to cap world to spend. However, since cash to cap is really a choice by us, we certainly would have a right to skip sticking to the letter of this guideline if we choose to do so. For my purposes if the unlikely world of the assumption of this thread were to occur, then I want in exchange for giving up #12 I want at least 1200 points in equivalence (ex, I give up #12 avd drop back into the low 20s and pick up an additional second rounder), Lets say Kiper's picks are correct (I know they are wrong but we already are in fantasy world with the premise of the thread) I end up with an extra second for dropping back and in his world I use my 20s pick to take the DT between Okoye and Branch (probably Branch) and still have a second rounder which I can easily use to pick up someone like Irons. Alternately the DTs are gone but in Kiper land Willis is still around so I pick him but play him at OLB (which apparently he can play) and slide Crowell over to MLB since it is my contention that this role requires vet reads which Willis will not be able to do immediately at MLB. Sure the rookie cap we are assigned goes down, but if need be then this comes out of the money I have for signing vets and Manning at LB almost certainly gets cut under this configuration, Lets say something happens like the Nears offer us Briggs in exchange for TKO straight up, though this blows the cash to cap planning, it does not actually exceed the actual salary cap and with Briggs, Crowell and Willis backed up by Ellison, Haggan, and Wire, i think i have the best LB crew in the league. Its all fantasy so who knows.

If all these players were available to us when the #12 came around I think the answer is obvious, Trade down. We have several needs which a first rounder could help plug, but no one choice is going to fill them all. If we trade down and get additional first day choices, we might get a first day pick or picks which help us fill all the holes and if you can pull off a trade without dropping an inordinate number of slots, you still get one of the guys you named (maybe 2) with the extra picks. The key to the draft seems to me to be to get the players you want and if there is no firm reason to choose a particular player (our safety need made us want one of the two highest rated safties with our #8 and when OAK surprisingly took Huff at #7 and DET at #9 had a clear safety need (which they then filled with the second pick after we took Whitner then our choice became obvious). Given there are at least 5 players on your list that I think fill a need of ours, then the Bills could easily trade down 4 slots and pick up an extra 2nd rounder for doing so and still get one of these 5.

Youbouty should be capable of stepping into the nickel slot (thus making Greer a reasonable #4 and dime player) and present the possibility (though far from a certainty) of taking the #2 CB slot of being a starter. He will compete with Kiwaukee Thomas who envisions himself as being a starter, and whom Jauron likes but I do not see as being an NFL starter. We have three guys who are all capable of being a credible nickel CB and if one of them steps up then there is your #2. I was hoping we would get a better 2nd tier CB to compete with Youbouty (like Harper) but the set-up at CB is pretty doable for working with in our Cover 2 system which diminishes the playmaking ability of the CB (see Dre Bly's public comments ragging on the Cover 2 designed for Detroit by Jauron which led to Bly leaving Detroit as an FA, and see the Bills decision to agree not to franchise NC last year because they saw that the likely cost of franchising NC this year was beyond the amount of cap room a CB should take in a Cover 2).

This all depends on who is left and who is coming up next and what deals they would agree to (in other words this fantasy exercise can be fun do by all means if you want engage in it) but there are so many variables here that predicting a specific outcome can be fun but it is silly in terms of trusting the results. This you can take to the bank.

According to Marv, a hallmark of his Bills teams will be competition. He has said that competition makes everyone better and its tough to argue with that. One way that I think is good for assessing our needs is to look at the level of competition at each position. This perspective not only should provide insights into what the Bills are going to be looking for in terms of depth as they go deep into the draft, but also in terms of identifying the critical needs where we have little competition for starting spots. RB- The most recent site of change in Bills land and a look at the level of competition makes it clear why the got the deal done with A-Train Starter competition- slim to none as A-Train is the only potential candidate and as his maximum # of games started in his career is 13 back in 03 (also the last time he broke 1000 yards) he is unlikely to be a starting quality player. Depth competition- slim and none as Shaud Williams is all there is and he should be gone in the view of many fans. WR- Starter competition- Bills appear set with Evans continuing to get better and PP being merely adequate as a #2 but does present a speed threat which could still be used better by Fairchild. If Evans went down PP would be asked to assume his speed slot (a clear drop-off but at least scheme would still be run. if PP went down either Parrish comes in as speed complement or Reed impressed folks with his RAC last year. Depth- Parrish and Reed appear more than adequate as back-up talents not ready to start (ye t in Parrish's case). Davis and Aiken provide good depth and some ST achievement chops. OL- Starter competition- for the first time in years a solid starting 5 appears set to emerge with Peters, Dockery, Fowler. Preston, and Pennington as likely starters all of whom have played adequately at their positions for extended numbers of games during their careers Depth- Langston Walker and Brad Butler both are possibilities to replace Pennington with Walker being a real possibility in terms of adequate play. Whittle will challenge Preston and Merz also got a start last year and this spot is most in play. Preston is a natural center and back-ups Fowler who started 16 for the first time in his career last year. Bills are clearly trying to develop Merz as a swingman as he is the 3rd C and also the 2nd LG. Interestingly Gandy remains on the roster as the 3rd LG and is another candidate who may go if someone wants him but if we get him on the cheap he is a potential swingman for us as he played well at LT in 05. Butler is the back-up behind Peters and he needs to step up this camp and demonstrate the talent which got the Bills to pick him despite an non-character episode he had in college. Things are not guaranteed to be set on OL, but we go 2 and sometimes 3 deep there so 5 starters should be found. TE- Starter- Royal showed potential last year but ultimately the failure to have a productive running game and him failing to recognize he was deep in the endzone on one catch he made but he did not even try to tightrope his feet down raises significant questions for fans about his adequacy even the coaches seem quite satisfied. Depth- Cieslak actually impressed folks but it was more as an FB than as a TE and this appears to be a make or break year for the highly regarded low producing Everett. A look at the lack of overwhelming competitive opportunities (there is a tight competition but seemingly amongst inadequate players) here is something that would lead me not to be surprised if we see a TE we like we go for him FB- A wasteland QB- JP appears to be the real deal, it is to be hoped Nall has shown enough in practice that he can be the back-up and we then need to find a good development propect for disaster QB as I hope we move beyond Holcomb one way or the other. CB- Bills appear to be counting upon the Cover 2 scheme to make it unnecessary for us to spend top dollar for a CB (NC was simply not worth what the market would give him to sign a long deal and since the Bills would not offer him enough scratch even the cost of franchising him was beyond what is was worth paying a CB in a Cover 2. Starters- McGee was so bad he deserved benching last year, but the benching seemed to get him to get his act together. IMHO he was benched not because he suddenly became a bad athlete, but because he was not mentally playing the Cover 2 correctly as he needed to recognize he had some deep responsibility when the rookies were not in a position to cover deep particularly when there was no one coming into his short zone. However, he did get the mechanics of working the scheme down much better in the second half of the season. In conjunction with the Bills changing things up so that NC generally was covering the other team's better receiver, his game improved enough so that they chose to challenge NC more rather than simply picking on McGee. The coaches have clearly made a decision that McGee is ready to handle the #1CB slot in this defensive scheme which minimizes the big play opportunities for a CB and emphasizes more press coverage. Yet, the question marks which surround the #2 slot speak to the lack of competitive pressure which may force McGee to play better. Youbouty shows a scouting report based on his college play which indicates he was built for the cover 2 scheme. His strengths are that he is good in press coverage and has shown good hand fighting skills. His limitations coming in were a concern that even though he has plenty of speed how well he played with his back to the QB and also that he tended to look inside to give run support to much relying on a speed advantage he likely will not have against pro receivers to catch up. However, as the way we play the Cover 2 is mostly going to call for him to play press and turn over the receiver to the Ss and MLB when they go 15 yards or more, the Cover 2 should play to his strengths and minimize his weaknesses. Many fans seem to be whining that he is unproven and did not pull off the same achievements as NC and AW of producing as a rookie. Yet, the facts of what happened reduce this complaint to more of a whine when the facts are that in his three games last year and one start Youbouty was certainly adequate (and actually played quite well in his surprise start against NYJ when he and the D stymied the rag armed but cagey Chad Pennington). The word was that when he came out early last year, that pundits felt that with another year in school he could make the first round. As far a it goes, he had the year of schooling last year and actually it works better for us that this learning year consisted of 16 Bills games and practices rather than perfecting his game at OSU. I think it is highly likely that he will be able to hold down the nickel slot (as AW did in his first full year of play rather than start at CB as some imply) and quite possible that with a year of training and practice and the CB position required to play the short game in the Cover 2 it is even conceivable he could start at #2 CB. Back-ups- Greer is a solid nickel but though he often has great pre-seasons he never has been able to be a consistent producer in the regular season so I do not see him as a #2. Overall, I think it is still critical that the Bills get another CB with potential to start at #2. However, given that the Cover 2 devalues the playmaker role for the CB letting NC walk was a smart mover because the market pretty clearly was gonna give him a bigger contract than he was likely worth to the Bills (he would have been stupid to ever re-sign with us) and even the franchise tag CB salary he would gotten this year is still above his worth to the team in terms of building a winning team. The Bills need to sign a second tier CB and that should be good enough to offer competition to Youbouty to make me comfortable with these 4 CBs. LB- Probably the area of greatest question marks on the team as not only did the Bills and F-B not make a deal, but other starters Crowell and TKO are both coming off of injuries. Starters- Marv talked about the Bills sliding Crowell over to MLB and since the word is he already is 100% recovered from the injury which landed him on IR this makes sense as Crowell was drafted to play MLB and was the back-up to F-B for two years where he learned signal calling. He actually played well at MLB in his pre-season looks and was easily the most talented back-up on the teams so that it was him who came in at SLB when ditched Posey and came into the Will slot when TKO went down. The MLB in the Tampa 2 type scheme we run is called upon to both tackle like a DT on run plays and cover like a safety on pass plays and most important be able to quickly read and tell the difference between the two on plays. Many folks are advocating drafting Willis to start in F-Bs place. My argument is that yes he is a very good player and yes rookies have been able to start right away for many teams at LB. However, the way we play the MLB calls for such a diversity of applied skills that I simply see any rookie going through a probably painful learning curve while he learns to read NFL plays like a vet. The idea of drafting Willis makes a bit more sense to me since I have seen some reads on his college career that he can play the Sam slot as well. If he learns his trade as the SLB for a while I think he can solidify the MLB slot for us for years, but if he starts at MLB it seems like a pretty clear sign to me that the Bills have written off qualifying for the playoffs for 2007 and this will be yet another development year. The TKO situation is up in the air particularly since there is talk of trading him or letting him go. I hope not as I think he was actually nagged by injuries in 06 because he worked too hard to come back. If he comes back, we slide Crowell over and then draft Willis (or Timmons, or Poluszny, or whomever the Bills think is the best option as Willis is likely the best of this bunch but in a LB draft class which appears pretty weak (no top 10 ranked players by any estimation I have seen) LB class, the differences between these players is not so huge that I would pass by an opportunity to get another draft choice or so to move down and if I have to settle for one of the other two I do not feel horrible. In fact, there is a reasonable chance that the Bills can trade down a couple of times and actually still pick Willis according to some mock drafts. In the end, my fantasy would be to see the Bills trade TKO for Briggs, and then slide Crowell over and pick the best OLB they can and there is a possibility we have one of the best LB crews in football (a guy can dream can't he). Back-ups- I think we are solid at back-up though I think none of these players can start consistently for a full season. However, Haggan is a great ST player and solid back-up and there is even some thought of Ellison being able to start again for this team. Add to this an apparently bulked up Wire who is a far better LB than safety and even Manning who got some starts with GB and if the starting situation is solved this is a formidable unit. DL- I think this unit can be very good this year, but there is a big question as to whether this improvement will come through development or drafting. Its a rotation so in some ways the starter/back-up division is not wholly accurate. Still the very good year had by Pro Bowl starter Schobel should be noted, and though Kelsay is probably a prime example of how the new CBA has inflated salaries of players lucky enough to hit the timing right, he and Denney are not a bad pairing in the rotation. Hargrove really did not impress me with his play though his attitude is likable and good and makes this a fairly solid rotation where if Kelsay plays like he is paid or Hargrove shows in his play what he showed in his cheerleading this could be fun. DT is the big question mark, but between Triplett (who disappointed for a big buck acquisition). Williams who surprised as an adequate starter and McCargo who in some judgments had just begun to turn it around when he got the IR injury, a reasonable rotation can be found at DT. The interesting thing is that most fans (and I) are willing to say adios to Anderson and if Okoye or Branch fall to 12 the big improvement in the run game may be found in the trenches rather than in the LB choice. This is my sense of the field positions.

But guessing is so much fun to do so i will take my shot, but even this wild-eyed fan is not dumb enough to advocate any strategy until after we see what deals we can make in FA. I don't think anyone who is even half serious about this can really take any strategy even halfway serious until we see what shakes out.

Exactly! He showed last year that he can be a good #2 and I am glad they signed him for what appears to be a relatively cheap deal. However, the bottomline remains that he has never ever started more than 13 games in a season during his entire 6 year career and that the last time he even achieved 1000 yards in a season was back in 2003. He finally at least appeared in all 16 games for the first time last year, so he certainly gets a shot at starting like anyone else, but you would have to be a fool to count on this or expect it.

The second round is still probably too early for the Bills go for a CB unless they use FA to fill holes where we simply have no chance of finding a starter on our roster like MLB and RB. The best CBs (take your pick between Revis and Hall) are not so much obviously better than the second best LBs (take your pick as some pundits do between Willis and Timmons) or even the second best DT (take your pick as some pundits do between Okoye and Branch) or second best RB Lynch (Peterson is better but he will be long gone by 12) that it makes more football sense for us to fill other holes first rather than draft a CB first. We long ago decided that in our scheme the CB role was going to be diminished (hence we let NC go so it does not make sense that we would devote a large cap slot to a CB.

The idea of picking Willis (a sign to me that we have written off making the playoffs in 07 if he starts at MLB) can actually play some SLB, This to me is a much more doable thing as the requirements in the Cover 2 of the OLBs depends much less on making vet reads than the MLB position. If drafting Willis to play SLB is a doable thing (and this nugget of thought was just the type of info I have been looking for in my various protestations of the idea of drafting Willis to start at MLB) then he becomes much more attractive to me as a draftee. Slide Crowell over to MLB and the two years of training he got in signal calling as the back-up to Fletch and the quality diverse play he has showed as the best reserve LB on our depth chart so that when Posey was sent away he switched to Sam and when TKO went down he was our plan B at Will (and played well enough there that when TKO came back he stayed at WLB and TKO went to SLB) this looks to me like a far better framework than demanding a rookie be a step late at the MLB position as he learns it.

As a general rule (which one should violate easily in specific cases where you can justify it such as our crying need for an SS starter last year and the belief which proved correct that Whitner was not only capable of starting immediately but actually a better prospect for performance than Huff) I think one should trade down for depth. In this case, I agree with the general sense that one must run and stop the run as a starting point. I do prefer FA for the OL in our case because our need has been to win immediately and as happened last year we did not have a draft pick high enough to get D'Brick (and I and a couple of other folks did not predict Mangold was capable of starting at C immediately). This year I like Okoye if he drops to #12 (which unfortunately it does not look now he will do). Branch is getting a lot of negative marks recently and I want to take a look to see if this is merely disinformation from folks hoping either he or Okoye will drop but I think drafting a DT is probably our best bet right now. I also would take a hard look at whether Willis can in fact play SLB which I have heard some talk of (this makes far more sense than drafting him to start at MLB). The good news is that the draft ain't until April and all predictions are interesting but way pre-mature as as seen last year probably incorrect anyway if the Bills do this right.

Definitely Youbouty showed nothing that guarantees him a opening day start, but it seems to me to ignore the reality of both his performance in his one start (a win with a great D performance against the rag-armed but cagey Pennington) and his holding his own in two other appearances and the big reality in today's NFL, his contract slotted to a 3rd round choice that Youbouty is easily guaranteed a roster spot. If third round choice at DT Tim Anderson is till hanging around in his third year, then Youbouty is simply flat-out guaranteed a roster spot in his second year. As far as the Bills holes this fact actually tends the Bills toward something other than a CB. At least we at least have an option (even if you or others do not believe in it) at #2 CB, however, at MLB and RB we simply have Shaud Williams and Digregorio as the best options to start on our depth chart and Crowell and nobody as reasonable options to start. I agree that we have an interest in getting some more competition at CB, but the even more critical needs at other holes may well drive the likely to start and contribute 1st and 2nd round choices to other needs where we do not even have an option,

Its a team game and its the team's record that counts much more than an individual players performance. I'll have to go back and refresh my minds with a look at a good indicator which is statistical performance as far as AW's history of being part of achievement. However, if memory serves me correctly, what NC demonstrated in his first year was that he showed good indications that he could play but really only proved he could be part of a 3-13 team. The one credible rap I think people can put on NC's career is that he definitely has shown he is a very good player who even made the Pro Bowl as a reserve once, he is far from being a great player, first year, second year or whenever because he has never demonstrated the true mark of a champion because he makes the players around him play better or steps up in crunch time to produce himself. I think the key item in assessing NC as a player and and as an investment was that the one time he did have the team's fate in his own hot little hands when the Bills were 9-6 and stood a good chance at making the playoffs with a win, he laid a punt return on the carpet, Our kicker missed a chip shot field goal and Bledsoe failed to lead. Same as when he was a rookie was the same thing that year, he is a player he showed good potential but potential really means you have not done anything yet. Did Youbouty show a lot as a rookie? No. However, fortunately for the Bills we had two starters at CB so the team did not require him to do so. However, when McGee and others got injured and we did need him to play, he indicated that he does have the potential to one day be a credible NFL player and CB with his one start and adequate performance against NYJ. I think Youbouty has potential and with us bringing in competition like a second tier CB who might also hold down the diminished value position in our Cover 2 if Youbouty fails to step up (as Nate and ultimately AW failed to do for the Bills) then we can go to plan B.

Exactly! It is not only an estimate of Youbouty's talent that makes him a viable replacement for NC (in fact in terms of quality he is now where near the quality of NC) but the likely fact that the import of the CB is diminished in the Cover 2 as the CB is required generally to break coverage on the WR after 10-15 yards and turn him over to the safeties and MLB who have deep coverage in the Cover 2 in the way we implement it. This diminished CB role and opportunity for INTs in the Cover 2 was a public and specific reason which Dre Bly stated was a reason he was jumping ship in DET which still runs a cover 2 as designed by Dick Jauron when he was DC at DET. Our reliance on the Tampa 2 esque version is part of the reason why it was MLB Fletcher-Baker rather than CBs Clements or McGee who led the team in INTs last year. I suspect it was a big part of the reason why Marv was quite willing to forgo the option of franchising Clements this year because he knew there was no way that a CB playing the reduced role of a CB in the Cover 2 was going to certainly be worth the likely market rate needed to sign NC or even that this year's franchise amount of the avg. salary of the top 5 CBs was going to be worth paying Clements when a second tier CB likely can do the reduced job required of a CB in a Cover 2. This is not to say there is no risk in departing with a very goof player like NC (though if someone wants to make the case that he is the BEST D player in football as the coincidence of renewal of the cap has resulted in him signing the biggest contract ever for a D player- in fact it is pretty hard to argue he is even the best among CBs much less that he is the best D player in football- Nate would not have been foolish enough to sign any contract with the Bills this off-season much short of the one he signed and even last off-season "the playmaker" showed enough confidence that it is doubtful he would have accepted a deal much short of what he got and Bills fans would have strung Marv up to hang if he were willing to offer NC any deal he would sign after his awful 2005 season). The risk is that any D must change coverage from time to time or the opponent will kill you and any CB is gonna be required to turn tail and play with his back to the QB sometime. This apparently was a big weakness in Youbouty's game when he came to the pros and whether he has solved this problem with a year of watching and participating in Bills practice will say a lot whether he is merely good enough to be our nickel (likely) or good enough to play CB (possible though still not likely until he shows more). The three things I like about Youbouty are: 1. The word on him was coming out of college was that he had 1st round physical talent and skills but he needed another year of college to work off some rough edges like a tendency to look too much into the backfield to do run support when particularly once he faced pro receivers he would need to be judicious in his run support and concentrate on covering NFL vet receivers as any small advantage for them may be fatal. However, I think Youbouty is actually better off getting his CB finishing school playing 16 games as a sub for the Bills (actually 15 as we trusted him to start one game due to injury issues) rather than 12 games starting for OSU. Perhaps if confidence and toughness were the issues for him starting would have been better for him. but calming down and cerebral work were the missing elements and he actually got a better dose of this watching the Bills system and workings for a year rather than playing in college. The year off as a player came from unforseen circumstances which cost him all of last pre-season, but life is what happens while one is making plans and I think he is likely a better player because of the course of events. 2. Most important, there is confirmation he is a good player as merely through practice the Bills gained enough trust in him to start against NYJ last year. In this game and two game appearances as a substitute he did OK though did nothing great to attract attention. However, the start was against the rag armed but cagey Chad Pennington and likely if he had coverage issues we would have seen them that game. The fact the braintrust trusted him enough to play and even start him and that the D held together fairly well with him in there are good signs that should make a Bills fan who watches the games hopeful (though not certain) that he is at least ready for the nickel job and maybe more. 3/ The type of game he played coming out of college really lend itself to the cover 2. He is a relatively big boy only an inch shorter than NC (and thus 3 or 4 inches taller than fellow OSU player Winfield. He apparently is a competive guy not afraid to make a hard hit. He has a rep for doing good hand work and plays better facing the QB and seems built to do the press coverage required in the way we run the Cover 2. NC is a very good player and far better than Youbouty, but even the best plays by Nate last year where times such as his break up of a 3rd down pass which forced Houston to punt late in that game which is just the type of play a second tier CB like the young Youbouty should be able to make doing press coverage rather than the other plays like NCs 1 TD last year which actually came when the Bills were running a better D style for him of loose coverage where he can sit back and read the QBs eyes and jump the route. I do not think that Youbouty is anywhere near being as good a player as NC but given his make-up, the year of study he got last year and us diminishing the role of the CB in the Cover 2, I would not be surprised at all to see him be able to replace NC as one of our starting CBs. McGee actually raised more questions by playing so badly he needed to be benched, but this did seem to adjust his attitude (it was a mental coverage selection issue IMHO as he was failing to read the mistakes of our young safeties and keep covering the WR when it should have been obvious to him the safety was gonna be late or the play required him to stay with the WR). However, the benching seemed to adjust his attitude and he was much better in the second half of the season to such an extent that QBs finally began challenging NC (who was assigned the other teams best receiver even though Roy Williams tattooed both McGee and NC in the Detroit game) rather than simply throwing at McGee all the time. I still would like us to get a second tier CB but I think we will be fine at CB next year.

My understanding is that A-Train wants to be a starter and the simple fact is that though folks like his grit, he has never played all 16 games like you hope a #1 RB would EVER in his career and the last time he gained even 1000 yards in a season was in 2003. A-Train proved to the NFL last year the he can be a very good #2 when he filled in admirably and productively for WM in two starts. He will sign somewhere and at the significant salary bump coming to players in demand this year after the new CBA. Still given the dwindling RB market but still substantial needs of teams he does not risk much at all waiting to see if someone bites the bullet and delivers him an even more huge payday and promise of at least a fair shot at a #1. The chances of the Bills being the one to do that increased significantly with the WM deal so he can afford to wait for a bigger deal and teams are waiting before offering such a deal to A-Train due to his history and the length of time since he last carried the load for a full season. Something almost certainly will come together for him either as the draft approaches or after things play out.

It will be interesting on the question of taking a step back with Willis as it will go directly to comparing his play to what F-B produced. If we should happen to take Willis, then the expectations in terms of statistical achievements (an indicator though far from a conclusive statement of his play) is that like Fletch he will lead LBs in the league in INTs (and the team as well), lead the team in tackles to his credit (with about a 2:1 majority being solo) and also produce sacks at a noticeable level. As a Bills' worshipper I will be rooting for Willis to do well like anyone else. However, I will not create the expectation that others seem quite willing to make in their advocacy of Willis as the answer to all complaints that we will see him achieve these numbers reflecting a level of play at even F-B levels. Will you judge Willis as being a step back unless he does lead the LBs in the league and the team in INTS? Do you expect him to produce 2 touchdowns for the team as F-B did? Do you also expect him to so master the D that he will be able to call signals and make adjustments at a level where he can be counted upon to tell Crowell, TKO (assuming he is here). Schobel, et al. what to do and where to play? And overall do you expect him to do all this (or at least make a credible case that he has replaced F-B equally and in fact better even if he does not produce the indicative #s) and also to achieve what Marv said and be an attacking LB? Yeah right. It all seems set up to me for this rookie to be a step back at least initially for the Bills if he is our starter rather than a recovered Crowell at MLB. If folks want to simply site his play in college an say he is so good that we will not take a step back, the most recent indcator was him struggling and getting burned for a couple of big passes at the Senior Bowl. Even if one buys into the concept that yes a rookie can master all of this, there seems to be no rational indicator and only typical fan statements that he is great that bolster the concept that he is even going to be an equal performer to F-B. When one adds to that the sense of I and also others that a lot of the run performance starts with substandard DT play and we would improve alot if a player like Okoye or Branch plugged the trenches, or the demands of many posters that we find a replacement for NC (folks like Badol clearly site his loss as a key missing link for the Bills before they mention MLB) or the loud calls for us to pick Lynch or trade up for Peterson, it seems pretty doubtful that we will even go with Willis or that if we do we will not see some fairly clear indicators of a step back.

Fine, Willis gets picked a head of Timmons. The key factor for the Bills however is that if they pick Willis to start at MLB do folks think that this rookie will be a vet (and if so why) and do folks see that making reads as like you have been watching pro plays develop is going to be a big key for the our MLB playing in our Cover 2. I also think Willis will likely start for years as MLB for the Bills, but even Willis boosters cannot be so blind that they cannot see that him learning to become a vet is simply going to involve some very likely painful mistakes. In addition, it appears pretty clear judging from how all the professional who are simply paid a ton to watch this game see this as a pretty thin LB class (zero players ranked in the top 10). In addition, there have been few submissions describing how the Bills are going to deal with defensive signal calling with the MLB being a rookie and both safeties being second year players. The implications of drafting Willis even though i agree he is among the best if not the best LB in this draft seem to be a clear indicator that 2007 is seen by the Bills hierarchy as yet another development year with little chance for the playoffs,

Not in his rookie year. If the Bills draft Willis with the idea of starting him at MLB we likely will see a drop off in production compared to F-B playing this role simply because Fletch brought a decade of seeing NFL plays develop to the position, while Willis though a better natural tackler than F-B and probably able to run the field better will simply have to go through what is likely to be a painful learning process for a while. This appears even more likely after watching Willis struggle in pass coverage against premier college talent in the Senior Bowl. I think Willis is a very good player (he won the Butkus trophy as the best LB in college football) and likely will solidify the MLB slot for years. However, folks are simply fooling themselves if they do not think that opposing OCs will be salivating at the possibilities of facing a rookie MLB in the Tampa 2 scheme. If they get his to misread a run and get him to take his first step backward then there may be a first down in the offing and if they get him to take a first step in with a speedy WR running a post pattern then it may well be seven for the other team. Sliding Crowell over to MLB (his natural position he was drafted to play) as Marv talked about and then taking a player like Timmons (who is higher rated than Willis in most mock drafts) wou;d seem to make a lot more sense than picking Willis.

Given that way back when the Bills actually received a mid draft pick for compensation when our lead FA loss was Lonnie Friggin Johnson it will be a long time before the Bills can claim any conspiracy theory designed to screw us in terms of compensatory picks.

I'm glad that folks seem to have the correct cut on this that it is the player who signs the contract and is ultimately in control and the agent is simply that, an agent in the employ of the player. I think many folks have gotten carried away in things after seeing the movie Jerry Maguire and some how thinking this is real life. Even though clearly some agents (like some people) are jerks, it ultimately is a statement about the player because he hired a jerk to be his agent. T.O. is T.O. because he is T.O. and not because Rosenidiot is his agent. Same with McGahee, WM made the stupid Baby Momma comment on Steven Smith's show and not Rosenfool. He ain't misunderstood and his decisions are about him. Besides, even though the NFL owners ran kicking and screaming from the free market when the NFLPA threatened to decertify itself, one place where the free market is used heavily and appears to be working in the NFL is the hiring of agents. An agent who actually does develop a rep as a Svengali who manipulates players and controls them is likely to get frozen out by the boys turned adults known as athletes. These legends in their own mind always wanna feel they are in charge and unless an agent is appropriately subservient when it comes to hiring time, he is quite likely to be passed over for employ by many athletes.