Pyrite Gal

Many folks simply make an assessment of how good a player they think a particular athlete is and then call it a bad or good trade, when actually that is not the only (and perhaps not even the main) key determinant of whether a trade is good or not. For example someone sites an old adage that the team which got the best player is the "winner" of a particular trade. While one need only look at the number of games started the last two seasons to make a pretty fair assessment of the relative value of these players to their particular teams and look at their entire careers even if you want to make a could be/maybe argument in favor of TKO. such an assessment misses what I think is the key to this trade for the Iggles. The 2006 Eagles made the playoffs but lost their only playoff game by three when their D could not stop NO from getting the winning FG and then could not stop them from getting a first down that allowed them to run out the clock. The Saints scoring was not all to blame on a failure to stop the run or all to blame on a failure to stop the pass as the Saints were fairly balanced in getting firsts both ways and credibly one can look to a lack of depth at LB as one of their bac-ups Barber went down to injury and a Saints team which was not to be denied got some big plays on 3rd down, The Iggles may not even start TKO next year, but he may make the difference for this team making and winning playoff games as he is a vet who has been a playmaker. While the Bills likely would require TKO to be even more of a team leader with F-B gone. He is on an LB crew which only has one youngster and an 8 year and 10 year vet. Even if TKO does not heal a lot more and likely he will never be the player he once was even if he heals completely, he can make a differentce (if not the difference if situations fall the way they think) simplt by making a big play or two early in the season (as he did for the Bills on the very first play last year) but this time stay healthy as the Eagles will need to use TKO much less than the Bills used him last year (when they could use him as he pushed too hard IMHO to get back and start game 1). In order to make a contribution which can be critical to them, if he shows that he can be a playmaker even if only on occasion, it will force opponents to plan for him every single play in casr this might be the play where he goes while. Personally, I am virtually certain TKO will never ever be the player he was, but this may not matter at all to the Iggles in judging whether they made a good trade if TKO (who is not a starter on the current Eagles depth chart) can simply be the playmaker they want and need in an episodic way for the Pats. The Bills on the other hand need an athlete who not only can play SLB (not TKOs best position) but will be there every down.

Actually I think the true measure is does it make your team better and what end does the hoped for improvement create. I think folks who ignore this point actually miss what probably both teams were thinking which prompted them to make this move. Bills- They were facing a situation where they had diagnosed one of the big problems for this team was the lack of attacking LBs. Fletcher was the example folks assumed Marv was basically referring to when he made this comment in his end of the season presser, but actually I think that this opinion probably applied even more clearly to TKO. The MLB definitely has duel duty in the Hybrid Cover we we play and actually it is quite hard to fault F-Bs play in terms of pass coverage. He simply led all NFL LBs in INTS and chipped in a few sacks as well. As always the key to his game is his mobility and he played deep cover quite well. In terms of playmaking he scored two defensive TDs. In terms of stopping the run, he once again led the team in tackles and his ratio of two solo tackles to his credit to assisted tackles speaks to him generally being strong enough to bring dowm runner by himself. Still, the run stopping game was simply inadequate and though much pf this is due to our DTs not being a very good first line of defense (hence Anderson likely gone and Walker in though his contribution is going to be more as a sackmaster and QB pressure artists who will occaisionally blow up running plays by penetrating into the backfield, but run stopping is not one of his fortes in the past and we will need good/great LB play reads and aggressive play in order to really stuff the run. In the end, despite his solid tackle stats, the Bills have only once been a winner with him as a leader and as he is well into the wrong side of 30, the Bills simply decided he was not worth the cap room. However, though there is a reasonable on one hand and on the other re: Fletcher the situation is pretty clear regarding an injured TKO. 1 The tendon tear clearly robbed the Bills of two years of quality TKO play and their is a serious question of whether this will be three years in 2007, 2. He is now on the wrong side of 30 which says not only are his chances of limited recovery from the injury even higher but even a fully recovered TKO has kikely seen his best days and him returning to a team leading aggressor and risk take is not very likely even with a full physical recovery. Even with him being a Pro Bowler two years in a row this was always the cerebral Fletcher's team and TKO neither demanded nor simply took a leadership role which surpassed Fletcher whom he was bummed out was not resigned, The likelihood of him aggressively leading this team now with Fletch gone and TKO still recovering are small. 3. The Sam LB generally covers the TE instead of having to pick up an RB and is required to do less running. Even with this, TKO ended up being a running question mark and this D demands a speedy top glight performance from the LBs which is its not clear TKO can provide. Overall it remains a question whether the Bills rookie heavy squad will continue to play well this year and adequately improve or will they need another year. While it is unclear whether he will be able to recover well enough to be a leading aggressor this year, if he does not then it is even less likely that he will be better the year after that.. On the positive side for the Iggles, TKO actually does not need to recover fully or his old form to give their team what it needs. Rather than being a team leader as is required if he were a Bill, TKO is listed on the Hgilly depth chart as the #2 at all 3 LB positions. 1. The 3 starters have 8 years, 10 years and only 1 youngster Gaither in his second year. The leadership need and example is far less in Philly. 2. TKO is already on record saying he loves the Philly scheme and that unlike his duty under Jauron/Fewell the scheme was designed for a player of his type. 3. The bottomline also is that in the Philly scheme he does not need to excel every play. If he merely polls off a couple of great plays early in the season, then opponents will have to account for hi, every single play. Is TKO goo enough and recovered enough to be a leader of the team? Maybe, a true leader will need to make plays all season and be the one relied upon rather than depending on his teammates to pick up for him often. TKO is probably not the player the Bills need to become a better team but he may be just what the doctored order as even a back-up for Philly.

I know I would be ecstatic if I was an opposing OC facing this LB trio in a game. The options present simply by facing a rookie MLB on a Cover 2 team (particularly one who struggled a bunch with pass coverage in the Senior Bowl) simply by itself is great to play with. Add into this, him having a rookie playing SLB by his side and the chances it gives me to let the TE run some games on this rookie would be an amazing opportunity. This LB crew appears to have the youth and talent that it may in the future become the best LB crew in football, but the future is the future and 2007 is now and I would be pretty confident that I can torch these guys pretty badly even if they are very talented athletes.

If the Bills take Leon Hall they would be putting big resources with their #1 pick and the large contract #12 is slotted to receive into a position which they have already decided was not worth expending the huge NC cap hit on. When the Bills decided not only to not offer NC a contract he thought was worth signing, but they decided even before they saw how he played in 06 that there was no way they would pay him the contract a franchised CB would get so they agreed to let him play the market if they did not achieve a deal. It is only because the market value NC was likely (and ultimately did) receive was so high they there is any room to feel the Bills are going to devote a #1 slotted contract to a CB. However, the Bills likely run a significant risk that this player with a huge contract will merely sit on the bench, if Youbouty plays at the level which the draft scouts generally agreed he would perform at given a year of training. The Bills coaches liked his play well enough that they gave him a game start last year and in this game the D performed well. While some seem to take the fact that he was not the starter in the next two games as being some declaration of failure on Youbouty's part or lack of satisfaction with his performance on the coaches part, this view would seem to not take into account that once the vets Clements and McGee were both set to start, then pretty much regardless of how he played Youbouty would sit as sitting either vet with the Bills still in the playoff hunt and NC likely to leave and McGee likely to step up, starting Youbouty was simply not gonna happen in the last two games last year. Youbouty seems likely to certainly be on tap to get the nickel slot this year and will get a shot to compete for the starting slot with Thomas. Particularly since only 18 of the 32 1st round choices last year proved able to be first on the depth chart at their position as shown a couple of weeks ago, it seems quite doubtful and risky that the Bills would devote the 1st round choice to a player who stands a good chance of not starting for this team perhaps at any point this year. If they are not satisfied with the competition between Youbouty and Thomas to give them a starter with McGee, it seems they would have put more effort into getting a vet CB in FA than to take the risk on even a talented rookie.

Nope, nit likely. The Bills are fully invested in a regional marketing strategy which involves activities such as running trains with Amtrak to the Ralph and back to locations 2 and 3 hours away and marketing season tickets to locals in these towns, A home game for the Bills which would fit a starting time so the west coach would watch if it is the only national game broadcast that evening would mean the game finishing at midnight or worse which is impossible if the trip home is several hours. This would not only make attendance at that one game fairly feeble but call into question for folks the reasonableness of buying season tickets. Ralph and the NFL have long had an arrangement which only calls for evening games for the Bills on the road. Particularly with Ralph just agreeing to vote for a revenue sharing package, I think it is doubtful the NFL would want to start Ralph complaining again.

Or we pull off another unexpected trade for a vet LB, or we draft Timmons, or we trade down as many mocks do not have either Poz or Willis getting a pick in the 10s, This trade is another confirmation (as the pick of Whitner was last year) that a big part of the fun of the draft is that us outsiders really don't know much at all for sure. I guess folks dream when they are put to sleep by posts they read and then they state these dreams as definite facts.

Exactly, they are probably right however that we better produce some strategy for filling the gap at RB as though I think A. Thomas is a great #2 RB and potentially a very useful part of an RB by Committee approach (though much of this depends upon who the rest of the committee are), quite frankly I think the Bills long ago decided that the way we use the CB in a Cover 2 means paying what would be necessary to sign Clements or even pay him the new average salary of the top 5 CBs was not a reasonable deal for us. I think the Bills will pick up another CB late in the draft or as a cheap FA for competition sake, but they may well go with what we got right now and have McGee as the #1, have Youbouty (who impressed the coaches enough to get a start against NYJ last year in a game the D played quite well) and Thomas (who has publicly stated he wanted to start at CB somewhere in 07 so put up or shut up) compete for #2 CB and have the loser play nickel and Greer play the dime. Looking at DBs, the irony here is that after we acquired 2 starters in last years draft as we currently only have one other safety on the roster, i think it is more likely we draft a safety high up than we draft a CB.

Coy hasn't been the answer to any question asked of many hard core Bills fans for awhile besides the question who would you most liked to see cut. However, even though I have long thought and said he was horribly miscast by GW/Gray in the role of starting SS because of their miscue of judging that former Titan Jenkins had anything left in the tank. However. I think that a lot of this bad feeling stems from his problems at safety (a position he had never played at any level of organized ball since HS when the Bills made this rookie their SS starter) and it is not impossible that he may prove to be a satisfactory OLB. He certainly has been never afraid to hit (though at times I feared he had Kurt Schulz disease and his teammates were as much in danger as his opponents from him throwing his body into a pile). If the Bills are looking for more attacking LBs than the old lineup, Wire may well be the answer. The main question I think is can he bulk up a bit (he was listed at 220 which is a weight I think he stayed at in order to be as quick as he could at SS). If he comes into camp bulked up a little so that he is not too light in the pants to be a run plugger and does so in away that still allows him to maintain some speed, it is certainly possible (though his past problems at SS do not allow me to do more than wish for this) that he may be a good LB for us.

WM is reasonably (IMHO) judged to be a failure overall as a Bill due to the simple fact we never even made the playoffs while he was here as our lead RB. However, I was certainly quite impressed with his accomplishments as a Bill in his first season and a half of play here as a Bill and I think that most folks rationally were quite impressed with: 1. The simple fact he reached 2000 yards rushing quicker than any Bill ever. This factoid does not make him at all a better RB than the far more complete player Thurnan or the exciting play of the Juice (prior to him become a stone cold killer of the mother of his children which reduces his football accomplishments to meaningless activity). He failed in the end, but this was an impressive start to me. 2. The highlights of how he ran during his first two years of play were quite impressive to me. The play where he combined with a top notch QB sneak play by the much hated Bledsoe and took a pitch and scampered for a 40+ yard TD I found to be very impressive. If one throws in his use of a stiff arm his first year, a formidable weapon which he sheathed for some reason in his last season and a half, was brutal and quite impressive to me. 3. While it was not actual yards, i also was very impressed with the diligence he showed in working out like a demon to get drafted in the 1st round and to comeback from what credibly seemed like a career ending injury to start at NFL as an RB was quite impressive to me. I know with our little brains as humans we tend to try to categorize things as either all bad or all good because this simplistic view of things does not have the complications of reality and the nuance in the world. However, i think Willis drives many folks nuts not because most always were unimpressed by his work but specifically because there were so many impressive things about what he did initially as a Bill, but he utterly failed to finish and bring the glory that he could have achieved.

While I agree that Poz appears to be a Marv kind of guy, I think that he is not such an outstanding or irreplaceable type player and that the Bills have enough needs, that there is very much risk at all in the Bills trading down if they can. All it takes is for one team to do something unexpected and the entire course of the draft can make all mocks invalid to that point. Last year the course of expected events and potential variables lasted all the way to pick 7, when Oak unexpectedly took Huff and all bets were off and all the mocks went south after that point. This triggered a course within which it would have completely legit pre-reality for Marv to trade down to get Whitner who was seen credibly as a #21 or so pick, but the Bills then felt it was too risky to not pick him at 8 since only two SS's were judged immediate quality starters and #9 DET had a clear SS need (a judgment with proved correct as 3rd SS taken Allen was generally not see as worth a #9 so they took LB Sims but used their second choice for an SS candidate. For this particular draft, the question is whether if Poz is such a singular possibility as LB that the Bills would not be willing to take a risk of going with an alternative if we traded down from #12 to say a mid teens pick. The question is not just a simple one of how valuable Poz is but whether the Bills in reviewing players (and most important meeting and talking to them) judge another OLB as no Poz. but a not unreasonable second choice. There appear to be ample numbers of other OLBs who are either talents at the Poz level (Timmons for example) or good second round talents if one needs to go there (Davis for example). A lot comes down to whether the Marv led braintrust feels they are "character" guys (the word is that Timmons likely is not but that Davis likely is). Even more interesting is that Willis predictions have bounced all over the place in the past few weeks as Kiper (an unreliable idiot which differentiates him from other mocks in that their purveyors may not be idiot like the Hair-guy, but like him they are unreliable (particularly regarding Bills picks as Maycock may have been the only one who got the Whitner choice correct). I see no problem with them taking Poz, but also see no problem with them trading down and increasing their resources to make it easier to pick a player like Irons and if the draft goes according to form (which it never does) they will get Poz anyway even trading down to the late teens or early 20s. If the risk does not pay off, darn but then we have to "settle" for picking off a Willis or a Lynch if they "drop" to the mid-teens (no drop at all in many mocks and actually the Bills will be accused of reaching for these players potentially with a late-teens selection). I like Poz, but I see little risk in trading down because they very likely still get him and of someone else picks him it by definition means that some other quality player who meets our needs will be there when we pick.

The presentation does not resonate for me as it seems like too much effort being made for positions which do not appear to be priority needs for making this team better. Specifically, I think that getting additional CB competition will see the Bills look for one more player, but even though I do not think they should stand pat where they are, i think the braintrust may be comfortable going into the season with McGee and Youbouty or Thomas as their starters with the loser being their nickel and Greer as their dime. I think they are more likely interested in getting a safety (they only have 3 on the current roster) rather than looking to CB. In general, I think many Bills fans are simply freaked out about losing Clements when actually, the Bills decided last off-season when they promised NC they would not tag him that CB value is really lessened the way we run the Cover 2. I also think that your draft and trades puts more emphasis on getting a WR than the Bills braintrust does. Again, they decided long ago when they signed him to a two season deal that PP was their #2. Overall, while his performance disappointed folks who seem to want to compare his production to PP's last year as a Bill, they actually saw his work as great progress from what he produced in AT and Dallas and the overall result was not completely out of line for what many #2 WRs produce. I think that Faurchild used him inappropriately as I think it was a waste of the speed he apparently still has to use him as a possession WR. I think to the extent they were dissatisfied with PP's production as a possession receiver, I think they were so pleased with Reed's output that he will be used more. While I can see them drafting another WR for competition, i doubt this is a priority for the Bills and I would not be surprised to see them draft no WRs.

In general, it appears really hard to trade a player whom everyone knows is going to be released in the near future because you are done with him. Its one of the reasons why though many Bills' fans advocate trading this player or that player to get some value for him before he hits FA and leaves us with no compensation, it just does not happen this way all the time unless some other team is desperate to get him. In this case, the Texans were clearly going to get rid of him as they could not afford to keep both Carr and Shaub's contract. If some team was so desperate for a QB (let's say something happened like JP slipping in the shower and breaking his whatis) then you might see a deal, but no team was forced to assume his contract so the good answer was simply to wait. Even in the case of a player's previous owner likely losing the player to FA as we did with Clements or Fletch its really hard to make a deal because folks doubt you will franchise him just to trade him. It takes a case like WM where at least a team is guaranteed a year to make a move. It was a pretty rare Bills case when TD put the transition tag on PP and we traded him to AT for a first rounder, it was a convergence of a bunch of specific circumstances: 1. PP was really the only attractive FA receiver on the market 2. Team owner foolishly promised the AT fan base he was going to get a top quality WR for Vick without realizing there simply were not many top quality WRs on the market after teams signed their own. 3. The marketing franchise of the team Micheal Vick would have been PO's ed if AT had settled for a second tier FA WR. 4. PP's hometown was AT and he was on record wanting to go home. 5. PP and TD had a good relationship so that when PP's market ability was restricted by the tag, TD was able to give him assurances he was able to trust for a little time that TD was gonna make the deal to get him a big contract. If all these factors are there or some equivalents then maybe you can get value for a player, but generally folks are happy to wait until he gets cut.

Consider it done. Moderator, please erase this thread.

Not to worry. As always (well almost always) I appreciate any interesting or attempts at being interesting responses my ramblings generate, but I tend to blather on to keep all this straight in my own little brain. Thus, I tend to blather on and even change my mind in mid-post sometimes as I am thinking while I am writing. I'm sorry if Bill's buddy Mike can't generate respect or whatever from my posts, but there really is no intent to generate respect from anyone on my part so I am not surprised if folks by them long winded or blathering because in fact they are. I really do appreciate TSW because amidst the way too much dreck like mine on the Board (I kind of miss ICE) I do find new information, one the quickest sources of Bills info, some interesting perspectives on issues I had not found yet, and a lot of laughs. I do not want this to sound too lofty or high-handed as I really do appreciate the community which has grown on TSW since the Roch D&C implosion back in 1998 and Scott S, and others filled the gap with TBD. I was out of Beefalo for over half a year translocated to St. Louis for some radical surgery for my significant other and TSW was a nice lifeline an connection to my hometown of Buffalo and the Bills. Scott, the moderators, and anyone else working for the board have consistently provided nice resources like the CAP page and most recently the addition of a spellchecker (that word generated a red-line for example) which for those of us who pretty much refuse to re-read and edit posts as once I write them I am done with them has been quite helpful to at least keep them in Anglish. Now about that grammerchecker.

While there is no guarantee about what any player can do, I think it is amusing that a number of folks seem to have their panties all up in a wad about Crowell and whether he can "make the jump" to MLB or in a recent thread whether he could play SLB if necessary if Spikes is a goner. Folks, these are the facts as I understand them. 1. Apparently some pundits had Crowell slated as an OLB prospect when he was drafted because for some reason some folks are acting as though it would be a big jump for him to play MLB, This is not the case. In college he apparently played ILB in a 3-4 and quite frankly where the pundits say he is likely to play after he is drafted and in fact where he actually plays are two different things. He was on the inside in college and it does not really matter anyway since he has in fact played for the Bills and this is really the determining factor of where he can be expected to play. 2. In his first two years Crowell actually was a back-up MLB behind Fletch and not only learned the position in practice but played the position (and looked fairly good doing it IMHO) in pre-season for the Bills. The best thing about it for him was that he also had the playcalling responsibility and thus learned the other players positions and jobs so he could make last minute playcalling adjustments and I think this held him in good stead when he was called upon to quickly fill other LB positions due to injuries. He actually played MLB for the Bills for real when Fletch got dinged in an early game against TB in 05. His performance in this game is probably the most troubling thing about his MLB prospects as TB was quite successful running up the middle on us in the half game Crowell played. To some extent there also were good signs in that Crowell did log 6 tackles and one certainly should be aware that the problem was not simply Crowell alone as the DTs include the soon likely to be gonr Tim Anderson and even his fellow DT Sam Adams did not have a very good game and in the FL sunshine needed to spelled by that tower of power (eventually switch to the offense he was such a good DT) Justin Bannan. The Bills were in the beginnings of an ill-fated season for JP and the O scored but 3 points so this loss was a group effort. 3. Crowell, however, did begin to show some good stuff when TKO went down after 3 games with an Achilles tear and interestingly the Bills felt good enough about Crowell's play in practice and hs knowledge of the WLB role that they flipped positions on the depth chart and brought Crowell in at Will. The fact he ended up amassing 125 tackles in 3/4 of a season was a fairly impressive performance IMHO and it is a good indicator that he was able to score a number of sacks and INTs which is a good indicator that he contributed in both the run stopping and pass protection effort. 4. In fact, Crowell played well enough at WLB that when the Bills looked at TKOs comeback effort, they were comfortable enough with Crowell's play that they left him at WLB intially. Again interestingly when TKO went down again for several games with a strained hammy, it it was Crowell they went to to fill in at SLB. I felt he played well there getting a pivotal INT for the win against Miami and amassing ten tackles both against MI and in the next game against the Jets. The Bills were experimenting with the LB set-up due to the injury to TKO and then one to Ellison and i think it was Crowell's flexibility which allowed them to do this. Overall he was fourth on the team in tackles to his credit with roughly 85 and again showed good diversity logging positive numbers for INTs and sacks as well as the total tackles. Overall, i think he showed a bit more aggression than Fletch and again while there are no guarantees is certainly the best option on our roster for MLB and likely would be far more productive than any rookie MLB at the position.

Marv likes competition, If Carr can be had at the right price (doubtful) then bring him on. I doubt JP is so fragile that is a former starter came in he is not gonna freak and if he does then he probably is not the guy who is gonna lead your team through the tough times or the playoffs anyway.

Its called the free market. If players did not hire Rosenhaus he would change his way or operating or go out of business, but folks hire him because the buy his presentation and such is life. Maybe the folks who hire him are the stupid players, but I am not sure if either the union or the NFL can do anything but provide educational programs for players about choosing their agents (which they do) to impact this.

Any resentment created is likely to be among those players who are so short-sighted as to not see that the CBA is delivering every single player more money than they could have expected to get under any system for payment the NFL has ever used. There will be individuals who are either so stupid as not to see this or so venal and self-centered that they will not be able to get beyond the comparative with other players. My sense is that most of these two types of players will not be a problem because: 1. The stupid ones will simply be getting a bigger check than they ever had before and have more money to deal with than they ever thought they could seriously get and they simply will no how lucky they are. 2. The vein ones like the TOs of the world will always be dissatisfied no matter how much they are paid and will throw their hissy-fits whenever they have a chance when they are not being tamped down by teammates who expect them to and will pressure them to be good teammates (even though ultimately they will fail at this in the end). If Marv is blinking at the amount of money being paid to the individual players, then I am not sure what physical reaction he is having at the amount of cash being generated by the teams and their owners. Even though Upshaw and the NFLPA were smart enough and tough enough to force their "partners" the owners to make the players essentially the majority partner as they are getting 60.5% of the total revenue. On an individual basis, the players take divided between their hundreds of members with an average career of 5 years simply pales in comparison to the take of an individual owner like Ralph and his 1/32nd share of the 39.5% of gross revenues. In the end, if I had a choice of watching JP play football on a Sunday or watching Ralph enjoy himself, my eyeballs and ticket price would pay for JP and not for Ralph.

Correct if the Bills are listing heavily toward the taking the BPA. No matter what folks say is their "theory" of how teams are best built in the NFL which results in most GMs saying they are going after the best player available all the time. reality simply forces teams to strike a balance between taking BPA or addressing needs. For example, though I think Marv is honestly a true believer in the concept that it all starts with running or stopping the run, the reality was that last year we drafted a SS candidate with our #8 neither trading up for a D'Brick, taking Halata (seen along with Bunkley as the best likely run stuffers, or trading down. We took the guy we wanted at #8 despite the conventional wisdom clearly seeing that as way too early to pick a mere safety and the guy we wanted was to fill a need. We might take Hall as a BPA choice, but to do this would seem to have us listing way over toward going with the BPA side of our personality and ignoring several areas of need where we have even fewer candidates for starter than we have with Youbouty and Thomas at CB (RB for example where Anthony Thomas who has not been a starter in 4 years and he barely logged a 1000 yards in a career best 13 starts is the best we can do.

As Youbouty was rated a 1st rounder in many mocks last year whom the Bills got in the 3rd after a surprising number of teams had dropped heavy draft resources on DBs in the draft (many still say that Oak, the Bills and the Fins all over-reached with the safeties they took in the top 15) it seems quite possible (little is certain in this crapshoot known as the draft) that Hall may well sit on the bench for a while if we take him. One of the primary other raps on Youbouty which had him drop to the third was that folks though he left college a year early and would have been an even more likely 1st rounder if he had stayed in and perfected his game before becoming a pro. In order to buy the idea the Bills pick Hall one has to: 1. After the Bills already have clearly declared that a CB is not worth their top cap dollar since they not only passed on NC this year but actually agreed not to franchise him, it requires buying into the idea they are going to lock up yet another 1st day contract slot into CB. The notion of drafting yet another CB in the 1st seems counter to the way we are allocating our cap resources. 2.Youbouty got an even better year of perfecting his game last year since physical play did not seem to be his issue. 16 games of study and practice in the Bills system is far better and more focused teaching for him than playing 12 games for OSU would have been and one would have to buy the idea the Bills felt they failed so miserably in teaching him that they need to reload at CB. 3. It means little or nothing to the Bills that they had enough confidence in Youbouty's play that they gave him a start last year and that somehow this start indicated to them they need to drop major draft resources on a CB even though the D was incredibly productive with him starting against Pennington and NYJ as they best this O badly that game. 4. Perhaps folks buy into the idea that the fact Youbouty did not stick in the starting line-up the last two games is some indication they are looking elsewhere at CB even though the only way he could have stayed in the starting line-up would have been if the benched McGee (unlikely as he was playing better in the second half and now is slotted as their #1 or they benched NC. It does not seem to make sense that the fact Youbouty did not force his way into the starting line-up means they have lost confidence in him.

You are right, if you care about this team having at least a shot at the playoffs in 2007 then one should not look toward the draft to provide a key starter for this team.

You are right, since Willis has never played MLB in the cover-2 in a real game it would be wishful thinking to see him as an improvement next year over Fletcher.

You are right, this is a good argument for trading down (rather than shooting the whole 1st round wad on merely 1 LB) and getting more early picks to draft more better LBs.

My general sense is that like pretty much everyone else on TSW that predicted neither that the Bills would chose Whitner last year with the #1 or even WM with the #1 in when he was chosen, I really have no clue what the Bills are going to do. Certainly all of those who had these picks down (and can easily link to the post where they showed their superior football knowledge) can easily as far as I am concerned express great certainty about what the Bills will do, but I start with saying that I think I can say what they should not do. I also think I can say what I think they will do (though I and others will likely be wrong). But it all comes with that caveat. This being said, i think that Marv is generally right about it all starting with running and stopping the run. I am pleased with what has been done to strengthen the OL and with that and also the trade of our #1 RB, though I really dislike the idea of spending a #1 on an RB since I agree with those who point out that good RBs can be found later in the draft (though this is no guarantee we will find one), I am afraid this adds up to us probably investing in an RB. A lot probably depends on whether or how far Peterson falls. In either case, my sense is that the Bills can and should trade down in order to secure additional picks which will allow us to create more competition for our several holes. This move probably makes particular sense because we really have no one on the roster, even with the resigning of Thomas who is really a credible option for #1 RB. I was pleased with Thomas's work as #2 last year and at least he for first time in his career at least was able to appear in all 16 games. However, starting and appearing are two different things and since the last time he even rushed for 1000K in a season was 2003 and he his his maximum # of starts in his career at 13, I do not think he is a credible starter. Prior to us getting rid of WM, I was advocating picking an RB on the second day we thought could offer some competition for WM. Now, in addition to that player, i think we need to pick an RB on the 1st day though I do not find today's favorite flavor Lynch worth a #12. Most mocks seem to have him at around #18 or have us reaching for him at #12. I rather see us trade down and either go with Hunt or if we pick up enough extras in trade maybe go for Irons. In terms of extra picks we got for WM and from trading down, this gives us a lot of room to move Crowell to MLB (I can see folks arguing he would simply be another F-B but i was willing to pay this cost to the extent I would likely have even franchised Fletch to keep him around for a year while we developed an LB to take his place). I actually think that folks badmouth Crowell's ability a bit too much. While it is doubtful he is much of an upgrade in production over F-B, I think his stat lines support what I see in him that: 1. You can see he knows the D well through his play in pre-season in his second year when he spelled F-B and took over playcalling duties. Further, I think the Bills moved him in to fill in for TKO as WLB when he tore his Achilles and then at SLB when his strained hammy forced him out last season even though this was a change of positions because he had shown he knew the positions well through his playcalling ability and that he was the best back-up LB on the roster. 2. He has shown very good pass coverage techniques with him pulling in 2 INTs in a season shortened by injury when Fletch led the team with 4. His INT against Miami in the first game was critical to our win IMHO and he rang up a number of passes defended at both Will and Sam. 3. The question will be whether he is the attacking LB we want, but again his stats indicate that he may well be as he rang up two sacks last year (again in shortened season he was near the top among LBs) and was credited with roughly 125 tackles when he replaced TKO and his 80+ in a shortened season last year are good indicators he will hit as well as pass cover. No one should assume that he will be the answer to our LB concerns, but no one should panic either and the complaints about his play seem to not take into account his stats were not bad and showed the diversity of skills we need from and MLB in a Cover 2. Even though Willis is almost certainly faster than Crowell and has a rep as a tackling machine, unless those who root for Willis being taken want to somehow support an argument that this rookie is gonna read plays like a vet (he sure struggled with pass coverage in the Senior Bowl) its hard to see anything more than wishful thinking and the usual fact-free opinions claiming that his first year is gonna be much more than some great episodes but in general a lot of painful moments. My personal feeling is that the Golden Boys are not as sanguine as some posters seem to be about the idea of picking Willis because he secures the MLB position for the future. If Ralph was actually as patient as some propose, I think rather than dumping WM now, the potential (if not likelihood) of far better performance from him in a contract season of 07 behind a likely significantly improved OL with a more effective JP running the O, barring injury the Bills still had franchising rights to him next off-season and barring injury we would have had a shot at getting out first back. Ralph seems to know that there are no guarantees at his age and he is happy to dump players rather than play the contract game and likewise I doubt he will settle for going through a similar development curve with the quarterback of the defense he went through with the quaterback of the offense. So the options I guess (and/or endorse) are: 1. Trade down 2. Pick Okoye if he is available and I have to pick someone to answer your question. I think it is a misread to conclude the reason we had trouble stopping the run was due to F-Bs failings. He played the game we asked him to play and as shown by him leading the team and NFL LBs in INTs, the sheme tended toward him pass covering and he did this. One can complain about him making an intial hit to deep in our backfield, but given he led the Bills easily in tackles and his solo tackles outweighed his assisted ones 2:1, the problem was not necessarily him being too weak or light to bring an opponent down. His rep is that of a wise vet and also of the high motor guys the Bills love. I think his late hits were because our scheme had him play that way and if you want to see LB hits nearer the LOS, the first thing we need to do is strengthen the DT play because if F-Bs first hit is in our backfield by definition the runner avoided or rant through our DTs.

I hope not. Its likely to be a very painful 07 if we draft Willis to start at MLB (though he probably is a good investment for the future) and it will be doubly painful if we choose to trade away resources we could use to get depth and potential starters at our multiple other positions of need. Perhaps now that he is a GM Marv has given up on the idea that he offered in his book that a HC who prepares well for the future will not last long as your HC in the present. Perhaps if we pick Willis we start him at OLB (some folks high on him feel he can also play this position) and play Crowell as Marv has said at MLB. In any case, I agree with the earlier post which pointed to MLB as a key position in the Cover 2 since this player is required to tackle like a DT on run plays and cover pass plays like a safety. It sounds like Willis will eventual learn to be a good vet, but he is a rookie now and OCs will be salivating at the prospect of facing a rookie at MLB whom it will be easier for them to take a step back thinking it is a pass on run plays or even worse a step in to stop the run while a fleet-footed WR zips by him running a post pattern. It would be stupid to interpret this as me saying Willis or all rookies are stupid. I am just saying it is quite doubtful this rookie will read plays like a vet his first year and particular given his pass coverage struggles in the Senior Bowl , it is quite likely that a pick of Willis to start at MLB means that the Bills are conceding no real attempt even at making the playoffs in 07. I hope not.