Pyrite Gal

Several things do not follow from the logic chain taken in this article. 1. The chances are higher certainly that a first round WR will more likely be a bust than a first round CB. However, the thing which drives choosing a specific player is not the relative bust stats of position but how the braintrust feels about specific players. If the braintrust believes one of the many WRs which seem available in this draft can do the job as the #2 with Evans they will pick him regardless of the bust rate of the position. Of the 2/2 of WRs taken in the 1st the original post labels as busts, for every single one of them the team that got him were pretty sure he was going to be among the 1/3 who were hits. The Bills will feel the same way about their first pick be it a WR or a CB and the relative positional bust rates are interesting but far less important than the overall assessment of team needs and the level of belief in specific players. 2. The logic of this thread seems to simply ignore the fact that the way the Bills play the Cover 2, drafting a CB who has the talents to cover a WR all over the field is secondary to having a CB who does well reading plays, containing outside runs, doing press coverage in the short zone, doing well at the CB blitz and only then can do the change-up from time to time to cover a WR all over the field. I agree the Bills need to increase their depth at CB, but it is fairly unlikely that the best depth for us is going to come from a rookie pick we expect to play starter. Some CBs do command a 1st round pick in this market or a big contract in FA. However, they usually command these resources because they are good at covering a player all over the field which we specifically will not be asking a CB to do very much. If you are trying to see who we want to improve our CB position, our MO has been to go for players like James, Webster and Kliwaukee Thomas rather than spend big bucks to keep a player like Clements. 3. The pressure put on the Bills to match-up with players like Moss and Welker actually speak against picking a CB in the 1st if you seriously believe this rookie is going to be more than a lip smackin morsel for the vets Welker or Moss. The Bills have done exactly the right thing to counter the NE threat which is to get an OLB from the NYG team which pressured Brady and put him on his butt and improve the DL by letting go the disappointing Triplett and picking up former Pro Bowler Stroud. The talent the Bills have at CB if important for challenging NE type WRs in the short-zone, but it simply is a fourth priority behind improving the DL (so that Brady is under more pressure and the Bills face fewer pass/run optional plays from an O than ran the ball well on us on 1st down), improving the LBs (again cutting down the run/pass option plays and more consistently pressuring a Brady), improving the safety play (as these are the players who actually have the high stakes coverage for us on WRs), and arguably getting a TE who helps us convert 3rd downs and simply keeps the D off the field is more valuable for stopping the WRs than worrying about the CB pick. The original poster seems to adopt a faulty logic chain that the fact of greater WR failure adds up to instead picking a CB and then seems to ignore how the CB is used in our D.

It all depends on 2 things: 1. The market- if like Youbouty and Edwards he slips and his available in the 3rd (which I think is likely given the high expectations set for his sprint test which he did not meet and the sense that this is a rich draft in 1st day draft choice talent) the Bills have enough draft picks to meet our needs (another WR to draw attention from Evans or revel in single coverage as Evans is DT'ed, a TE to help 3rd down conversion, even more depth at LB and on DL for penetration and pressure) so we can take a flyer on a second WR (as the loss of Aiken and Price means two WR spots are available). 2. Looking Kelly in the eye- His tantrum raises legit concerns about his character, but as the Bills have shown, while they emphasize character, they are quite willing to take character risks when others testify to the character of a player despite bad moments (Butler is an example) or when they have a clear need (Hargrove is an example). There is a far greater likelihood today than last week that Kelly may slip to the third where we have a recent history of taking talent (Edwards and Youbouty) who slipped down the board. If he slips to the third you take him and if in the interviews he demonstrated to the braintrust that his tantrums were a Butler like aberration in his character, he may even be worth a trade up in the 3rd (like Edwards to get this "near 1st Rd" talent. If however, we shook his hand and looked him in the eye and his excuses post workout were possibly (or probably) the signs of more to come then run do not walk away from him. The funny thing is that some folks on TSW seem so drop dead certain you take him because Jerry Rice has a horrible 40 time or that you avoid him because of his knees (this latter view seems particular mindless of the past since the Bills docs made a far more informed call to take Thurman when injury worries made him slip or even the correct physical call that Willis could come back from knee issue- though mentally this legend in his own mind was not worth the trouble). The key with Kelly are simply pieces of information in terms of looking into his eyes and looking at his X-Rays that posters do not have. My sense is that 2nd round there likely will be too many other viable options to risk taking him but that in the 3rd round he may be the steal of the draft if he drops to that level.

I think folks are making the mistake that they are deciding where a player will be based on their assessment of his talent when the actual occurrence of where he will be picked will be based on the assessment of MULTIPLE evaluators based on their player assessments/team needs assessment/and the unknowable of how this draft is going to actually occur. One can easily assess Kelly as being a WR talent who merits a #2 choice, but if the draft plays out like it has for the Bills the last two years in a row where a player they did not have an immediate need for but was high on their charts slipped to the 3rd pick they chose Youbouty (who many professional evaluators had as a 1st round talent) and Edwards (who many professional evaluators had easily being snapped early in the second round. My sense is that any evaluation worth being taken seriously has to be either an exhaustive treatment which shows analysis of what each team needs and then factors in slippage (and of course the more detailed it is the quicker it will be come null and void by surprises in the draft from a Whitner going earlier than anyone but Maycock predicted or a Brady Quinn slipping to a spot far lower than expectations) or provide their assessment of him as a player separate from where folks predict he will go in the draft as these are simply two different things. My sense from years of watching the draft at least semi-closely and years of getting it wrong in significant ways is that the two factors which bode most badly for Kelly is that he has screwed up the all important expectation game and provided enough substantive ammo for the debates which occur on all teams for him to drop on charts across the league, Further this appears to be a strong year for the number but not the quality of WRs (a bunch of low first round talents. My guess is that Kelly actually pulls a Youbouty and slips to the 3rd before someone deems him too much of a steal to pass on. He is probably a 2nd rounder in demographics and raw talent even with the lousy 40 (an overrated stat if there ever was one) but the psychology really works against someone taking him in the 2nd round as the GM would need to be a true believer in Kelly as there will likely be several other hard to rag on choices available in the second. Ironically, I think the 40 time makes it more likely he may be a Bill as our braintrust has shown a clear willingness to buck history and convention and also we have 10 picks so we are going to take a flyer or two in this draft. Add to that we will likely need to pick up two WRs in this draft and Kelly is looking more and more like a Bill to me but it may well be as late as the 3rd round pick despite the fact that I still assess his talent as justifying a higher choice.

As i said in my post I do not think that the CB ONLY does run contain and ocassional other coverages, but also an important part of his work is press coverage in the short zone. In addition, the fact that other players generally have deep coverage duty on the wideouts actually frees the CB up to do more blitzing than the regular CB who has responsibility for the wideout all over the field. I think what this means is that often 1st round chosen CBs are given this high value because they demonstrated in college they have the ability to cover the wideout all over the field. I simply argue that it would be a waste of resources on our part to spend a high value pick on a player who demands a high value pick specifically because of talents we will not be using a lot. Does the Cover 2 allow you to play a bad player at CB? NO. A good team demands good play at all positions. However, what the Cover 2 allows a team to do is look for a specific type of good player at CB. One who is a big guy (over 6ft compared to some of the shirt athletes who excel at CB in the NFL because they have the speed to cover wideouts all over the field and good jumping ability to make up for the lack of height), a player who is a solid tackler primarily because he is going to called upon to do a lot of contain work and CBblitzing. and a good handfighter because he is going to do a lot of press coverage. H may not have the speed to go deep on a consistent basis or difficulty covering with his back to the QB, but that does not mean he is not good at the other aspects of the game most critical to the Cover 2 CB. Should we spend big bucks or high draft picks to get the best CBs? No. We should be able to find a merely good CB without the talents that often bring a huge contract to a player in the later rounds or even on the FA wire. Spending a 1st on a CB is something we might do because I think the Bills are committed to getting the best player they have on their board as early as the 3rd round (we saw non-need picks in the 3rd round for both Youbouty and Edwards). However, this regime seems to allocate the 1st couple of rounds to get the players they truly want and need (the unorthdox pick of a safety with the #8 pick and trading up to get both McCargo and Pos. I doubt we take a CB in the 1st because first we can likely get what we want at CB elsewhere and second because a player good enough to man the Cover 2 CB can be found at a much lower cost than a 1st round choice. As far as us not playing a Cover 2 more than 25% of the time, when you subtract out the plays in our redzone where the Cover 2 is not the defense of choice as there is no deep zone on a short field and plays which are short yardage and also take into account that some of this estimate is the amount we play a classic Cover 2 and variants like the Tampa 2 may well not count as part of the 25% the fact is that it is our base D and the default for this team.

The problem is with this point of view if you are interested in DRC is that the CBs in our Cover 2 only cover the wideouts in the shortzone and on the occaisional change-up of our coverage scheme. If one wants to emphasize coverage of the wideouts with the D we use then you need to look to improving safety play or get better reads by your MLB for passes over the deep middle. DRCs chief role in the defense we play is going to be to contain the outside run and to do press coverage in the short zone. Even worse in terms of production for the Bills, if one is worried about getting better coverage of vets like Randy Moss or the cagey Welker then if you are depending on the rookie DRC to shut down these topflight vets then wait until 09 because the rookie year is going to simply be a learning experience as he gets toasted by these vets.

This is no necessarily a disqualifier though as by definition we want a QB who presents no possibility of being a reasonable consistent starter (as the newmedia will happily flame even the hint of this into a QB controversy and there is a small but vocal core of Bills fans who seem to delight in ragging on one of the two competing QB choices- really we have continually seen demonstrations here on TSW that this fanbase is not mature enough to deal with two starting QB options). If Rattay is not good enough to be a consistent starter (he never has been based on Gruden's judgment and his career stats as a starter) but MAY be good enough to be a spot starter (his overall QB rating is not great but not bad), good enough for him to watch and teach the youngster Edwards (he has been around a while so he has seen a lot of games and is good enough to at least stick around and occaisionally play) and he is cheap and available, then he may be the best we can do. RJ may be the best we can do but as we see in this very thread some folks are committed to treating this game as though some future outcomes are 100% certain even though this game is actually interesting because nothing is 100% certain. If the eventual outcomes were so sure and easily seen by us unpaid fans this game would not be worth paying much attention to.

Thanks for the specific response (this is so much better than the simplistic theoretical rants which often appear on TSW clothed as some absolute truth with minimal objective back-up). I have never seen Rattay play (as he has spent his career out on the left coast) so what is your sense of what he is like? On the face of it merely looking at his stats, he appears to be fairly JP like in his output. A middling QB rating for his career), but he does have the advantage of having a lot of years in the league so he may well be a good teacher for a young QB. He never has broken through to be a consistent starter anywhere in his semi-long career though and has not even played a lot the last few years which makes me wonder if he had some type of injury or what the backstory is on his career. Still if there is a credible case for Rattay to be acquired to play the Frank Reich spot starter role for us and also play the teacher role vet Bledsoe played for Brady (a key is for the back-up to not be viewed as all as a starter potentially which Bledsoe was too badly hurt initially to have any QB controversy and then Brady was so good is was never an issue when Bledsoe recovered) if he had few injury issues. If this is the case, I would certainly agree with your signature message of trading RJ for a draft pick.

Who in your expert opinion do you think are the possibilities for that role. Saying that will not be JP is an answer to that question. However it is not a mere negative answer which one need not be an expert to give. A truly expert opinion is one that gives the positive options as it really only takes a child to just say no.

Unfortunately, for me I have no confirmation that my opinions of whether an athlete will ever be a good NFL player or not such as someone actually paying me money for my opinions are really good opinions. Even those who have some track record of actually evaluating players professionally mess up pretty badly with those opinions. Thus, far be it from me as a simple fan who follows the game for me to make a claim that a player is 100% certain to be a failure or be a success merely because it is my opinion. If I was truly such a great expert then someone would probably confirm that by actually paying me for my opinion. However, without that objective confirmation, rather than offering up drop dead certain opinions, I think that this issue is one subject most rationally to probabilities. My sense is that: 1. It is highly improbable that JP will ever have a successful career as a Bill. Though I am more certain of this not because of player assessment which even the best can get all wrong, but because of an assessment of the market which indicates to me that market forces of a few prominent local media outlets and a few noisy fans will never allow him succeed here regardless of how well he plays. 2. In terms of player assessment, it seems pretty clear that Losman has positives (mobility, a strong arm, moxie) but that he also has liabilities as a QB (needs a scheme which allows him to improvise rather than play a controlled game- when he is asked to think about what he is doing he tends to throw balls into the dirt even though he has been fairly accurate throwing on the run throughout his career). There are simply too many examples of QBs who has physical talents which got them a high draft spot who simply sucked so bad they got run out of their first stop. The they find a second situation which suits their talents and minimizes their deficits or they finally learn from their first failures and have success elsewhere (there is even the exteme case of Brad Johnson who was a loser in two spots before finding the right situation where he led a team to an SB win. Overall, it seems pretty clear to me that JP is done as a Bill. It also seems quite POSSIBLE (not likely or probable but certainly possible) that in the right situation he may well resurrect his career. Even better for the Bills, who cares if he does well elsewhere (unless it is us that he beats) all we need is for some legend in his own mind GM oe HC elsewhere to think he can be the one who is smarter than Mularkey (not hard) or smarter than Jauron (tougher to be smarter than this Ivy guy actually but he is D minded so it is certainly doable to think oneself a better O schemer or teacher than he is) and for this guy to give us something reasonable for JP. I do not think a draft choice at any level is a reasonable trade for us to make unless we have another plan for acquiring a back-up QB who will do a reasonable job at winning a few games for us if Edwards goes down. You seem to imply this will be an easy find. Perhaps you spoonfed us simpletons a specific answer in a post I missed and if so I would appreciate you enlightening me (us). It is my sense that if Jauron and the crew can pull it off that you are going to be right that JP will be gone before the season begins. However, my belief in this is that I think there is likely some GM/HC/QB coach who is certain because he is a legend in his own mind (or maybe because he is actually good) who will probably give us something of reasonable value for JP. We'll see since no one know matter how certain they say they are really knows what the future will bring. This is in fact a good thing, because if this game were so simple that anyone could predict the future with any degree of certainty this would be a pretty boring game.

This is simply incredibly doubtful. I think the bottomline is that even if one believes in Losman he called himself out against Jax and by anyone's measure failed. In order to be accepted by ANYONE he has to: 1. Win the confidence of his teammates with his play- Possible actually as his teammates want to trust their QB and he need only play well in practice (which he has done well enough before) and lead the team back to a win in game (which he has done as recently as last season) to get the benefit of the doubt from his teammates who want to believe in their leader. 2. Win the confidence of his coaches- Possible also though the coaches are paid to be more suspect than the players we always see examples of coaches who chose to believe that the problem was that the old coaches were not as good as them and only they with their superior understanding and skill can revive a talent. Even if he is fooling himself we have seen people in Schoenert' position decide to believe if given a reason to do so by good practices and a good game or two. 3. Win the confidence of the fans- Quite possible with some fans who will root in and believe in anyone who dons the jersey. However simply impossible with some number of loud voices at the game (who we hear more of after their second beer) or read constantly on TSW as they are even more repetitive than I am (and this is darn repetitive) in giving their expert opinions with a total faith which defies reality in their claims to predict the future 100% of the time. 4. Win the confidence of the media- This is pretty much impossible as GR makes too much money giving voice to whiners who are entertained most by screaming against these millionaire players and Jerry Sullivan types seem to love being a legend in their own minds to stop significant media voices from stating repetitively he is done. JP was right. The Jax game was make or break for his career as a Bill and all admit he broke.

My guess is that it will end up being called by the refs as a 15 yarder IF they judge it clearly impacted the play and not if they judge it to have been incidental contact. This strikes me as fine as a criterion. However, there will also be the tougher judgments about whether the facemasking endangered or caused injury to a player even if it did not cause a fumble, an incompletion or some other game changing impact. I think we will see players pretending to need aid to get up and writhing in alleged agony in an attempt to draw a flag. In response to this in a year or so we will see development (if there is not one) or greater enforcement if there is already a rule of against a player taking a dive.

I think part of the answer to your question is found in your last line. The question for the D us how does it force an offense to change and one answer for this is through a superior pass rush. Will it work all the time? NO. What does. However, the reason why Jauron (IMHO) has emphasized wanting to get good penetration from the DL (the attempts to sign sackmaster Walker last year and the frustration which led to the cut of DT whathisname from Indy- how soon we forget old news) was that we simply could not generate enough pressure up the middle to dictate the game. NYG has more sacks than any other NFL team last year and a big part of why they controlled a team like NE which as you say certainly has the talent to dictate to a D is that they put Tom Brady on his butt every chance they could and pressured him a ton which in essence made Moss/Welker and the boys losers. Now this is easier said than done in the NFL and the Pats racked up 18 Ws to prove it. However, the final game shows how not only in theory but in real life it can be done to dictate to even the great Pats O with a solid rush and some really outstanding DB work. The problem for the Bills is whether our version of the Cover 2 with our talented but adequate at best CBs can pull off outstanding work. I think McGee who clearly is a Pro Bowl level athletic talent (which he earned through KR work) has the speed and ability to make the switch to play a traditional CB role from time to time. The problem for him was in the first half of 06 he was not up to it mentally to make the correct reads. However, with the help of us changing up the coverage to have NC take the opponents best player all the time McGee righted the ship of state with his performance in the second half of 06. Last year, he continued to improve as players often do with their second year in a Cover 2 where he showed he can make the proper reads and given his athletic ability he is capable of being an adequate #1 CB. The interesting (and lucky) thing for us was that it turned out that Plan D Greer also has the athleticism (he apparently is one of the faster Bills and actually has made a number of very athletic coverage plays in his career, but unfortunately he seemed to only do these in pre-season) to cover the fly patterns. Greer though at 5'10 does not intimidate on the fade patterns (though McGee is even shorter his speed and jumping ability does slow QBs down a bit on flys but he too can be challenged on fades). but his downfield coverage is good. Specifically addressing Kirwin's points: 1. You can't play Cover 2 all day and have corners play the flat area every down. All an offense has to do is put trips (three receivers) to one side and the opposite corner is all alone. As for the pass rush, a three-step drop and a ball directed at the receiver who is being single-covered takes the pass rush out of the equation. One of the reasons the Pats are so dangerous is that they can attack you from many different points on the field. Quite frankly it would be a wonderful thing to have them take one side of the field out of play by loading up on one side. Particularly if the also choose to take the deep part of the field out of play by going to alot of 3 step drops, this also helps my game alot as I have to defend a lot less field. Kirwin is suggesting taking the pass rush out of the equation by the Pats choosing to take the deep ball out of the equation. This may not be a bad trade-off. Particularly if he is sending 4 WRs to the line he is pretty much taking the running play off the table as well. Overall, when the Pats or whomever brings this formation out I am going to challenge my CB who is alone to press cover Moss (or whomever on other teams) and we are challenging their QB to throw the fade well. Even if we lose this fight it better be in the redzone for them because the one time their QB throws it light or we jump the route we are gonna get 6 the other way. 2. Down in the red zone, the fade route to a tall receiver really means the corner has to make a play on the ball and the rush will not be a factor before the fade is thrown. See above 3. Sometimes it's the jam of the corner on the receivers that sets up the pass rush. I am not sure what he means here. 4. Corey Webster is one of the corners on the Giants who supposedly is just average. I asked Giants GM Jerry Reese about Webster and his first comment was, "Did you see the interception against the Packers?" Pass rush and corner play work hand in hand, just like an offensive line and a running back or a QB and his receivers. I think this point shows how important the DL play is to good CB work. The Bills problems last year was not that the CBs sucked but that we got so few sacks and so little pressure. A solid rush dictates the game to the O and if the O attempt to combat the rush by overloading the field to one side or taking the deep throw and the running game out of their arsenal then mission accomplished by the pass rush.

I agree with part of what Pat says but disagree if one attempts to take it to the other extreme. I agree that a team needs good CB play to be successful. If your team has two bad players on D (whether they are CBs, Ss, LBs, or on DL) the other team will pick on them and kill you. A team definitely needs good play at CB in order to be adequate in the NFL. However, if one takes this true point to the other extreme and claims that a team must have shutdown CBs and devote the 1st round to the CB position in order to get good CB play I disagree with this. The Cover 2 provides the benefit that one can get GOOD CB play out of players who do not have the talent to cover WRs all over the field. Players of the caliber to be shutdown corners are not a type of player that is easy to find and if one does find them you end up having to pay a player like Nate Clements who is a good CB, but was arguably the 4th or 5th best CB in the AFC (conference not the whole league) the biggest contract ever given to a defensive player in order to sign him. No team is perfect in the NFL. The salary cap virtually assures this. Winning in the modern NFL is not about achieving perfection (which is near impossible) it is about covering up for or compensating for the weakenesses you choose to have. Cover 2 is a good defense as when it works (as it did in the 2006 season SB where we saw both teams who made the big dance run the Cover 2) it allows you to have less than shutdown quality CBs man the position (they were good players just not great players of shutdown CB ability) and still give you good enough play to win. In order to win with a Cover 2 one needs: 1. Good attacking LBs who have the ability to make tackles to nullify inside rushes but also good pursuit which allows them to tackle or catch outside rushers contained by the CBs. The LBs must also have good pass rush ability. 2. A strong DL capable of holding the LOS on the run and also capable of penetrating to pressure the QB. 3. Good safeties who bear the primary downfield cover duties. 4. Strong CBs who contain outside rushers and do good press coverage in the short zone. A key for the team is for the players to make good reads so they do the best job possible anticipating the call as significant changes in the D scheme can occur on plays such as WR fly patterns where a change-up may require the CB to play a more traditional role of covering the WR down the field. The CB needs to have some ability to make this play and have some speed when this coverage is called for, however, he need not be forced to do this with no help since the change-up can be made and still allow the S to give him deep help and there is also even more time for blitzers to pressure the pocket. In addition, if a team has a swift MLB with a good mind, they also can play something more like the Tampa 2 where when the D reads deep pass or some attempt to flood the deep zone like the one Kirwin describes the D would actually be running something like a 3 deep where the two safeties and the MLB divide the field into thirds and drop, A QB is generally not going to do well if he is throwing into 3 defenders or a very crowded field if he sends 4 deep into those 3 defenders (or more if the D recognizes the play and switches to a man-to-man. Overall, IF Kirwin is trying to make the extreme claim that a team must commit to paying through the tooth for 2 stud CBs, this generally ignores the fact that due to the limitations which occur in the real world, the signing of these two hypothetical shutdown CBs means that a team is going to have to chose to be weak elsewhere as it spends its limited cap room. The key question if a team is going to commit the resources to buy the services of a shutdown CB, then at which positions will they choose to go cheap. Overall, in the Cover 2 (more like a Tampa 2 we employ) we are going with a reasonable starter at 1 CB (McGee struggled with our Cover 2 early on but as many say it takes a year to master the Cover 2 but after getting his attitude an approach adjusted by being benched during the first half of 06, he turned his play around to be adequate or maybe even good in the second half of last year. Further, the Bills plans were to use Webster as a Plan A for the second CB slot (this plan did not work and Webster ended up on IR), Youbouty as Plan B (a good thought as he has a rep for good press coverage and handgfighting and is over 6 feet allowing him to take on the fade routes Kirwin mentions but ultimately injuries and his truncated rookie season in 06 made 07 a disappointment for him), and plan C of Thomas also got IR'ed. Fortunately is Kirwin is claiming that it is impossible for a limited talent to play CB in today's NFL Jabari Greer proved him wrong last year. No one would mistake the Bills pass D of being good or even adequate, but even a limited talent such as Plan D Greer impressed many with how he handled playing CB in our poor Cover 2 which was also suffering from even bigger limitations in our DL plays and injuries which really hit our Ss and LBs hard. Can bad CBs play well in the NFL? No obviously. However, can merely adequate CBs be good enough to make the Cover 2 work? Yep, probably and the Bills play last year is good evidence that one can survive with pedestrian CB play by using the Cover 2. We fans demand better than adequate however, and our D seems to be headed that way with Stroud and a new back-up DT improving our DL pressure, with the acquisition of Kawika Mitchell who it is to be hoped will join a recoved POS to make LB corps good enough to do the job and with a full year of Whitner and Simpson buttresed by Wilson (we can use more depth at S) and with using McGee as the #1 CB and having a competition between Grerr, Youbouty, new acquisition James and it is to be hoped another new aquistion to at least be nickel worthy with one of them being good enough to start. We will see.

Exactly. It is somewhat amusing watching the Edwards/Losman lovers bash the Edwards/Losman haters for doing pretty much the same thing they have been doing. In my view the bottomline is this: 1. Edwards is the Bills starter at QB (right now but it is to be hoped and I hope all Bills do that he will make us forget about Jim Kelly with his future exploits) and actually deserves to be because of his great showing for a rookie last year. 2. However, the primary reason he deserves to be our starter right now is because Losman called himself out in the Jax game as make or break for him and I think any reasonable observer judges he broke. Edwards is our starter and deserves to be, but just as JP himself declared when he was handed the starting job over Bledsoe that he had not done enough on the field to deserve it, so to has Edwards not done enough on the field to deserve the starters job. However, there is theory and there is reality and it is clear in reality that Edwards deserves the starters job far more than Losman who broke in his self-declared make or break game or Hamdan. 3. Edwards did show a lot to build on in his appearances last year. His POISE was unusual for a rookie. He is a smart player with an ability to read defenses beyond that of many rookies. He showed far better mobility than was advertised in the draft. He keeps looking downfield when forced out of the pocket. He hangs in there until the last minute and delivers short passes with great accuracy. However, before folks get too giddy he has a number of things to work on and which he must prove he can do in real games before he deserves the starter job because of his achievements on the field rather than by default as acceptable and the best option. Specifically, among the things he needs to improve are: A. His arm appears to be strong enough to throw deep, but he has not yet shown the footwork so that he is more than arming it out there so that he consistently hits the deep throw. B. He needs to develop the confidence to override an idiot like a Fairchild (or Schonert when he proves to be human) who calls in dumb plays like the pass that got INT'ed deep in Dallas territory when a chip shot field goal likely would have won us the game. C. He needs to demonstrate an ability to play productively in bad weather which he will get plenty of in the Ralph. D. its way too early to call him injury prone based on one injury as a rookie, however, his college record of injury and the dinger to his wrist which gave JP a chance to win the job back (a chance JP failed at) makes this issue not a worry but a concern we are aware of. Ironically, players often try to prove they are tough enough for the NFL game by taking chances, actually the better approach is for Edwards to show he is smart enough to maintain his close to the edge efforts of hanging on to the ball til the last minute, but to be smart and get rid of it when there is little chance to produce a great play or when all we need is a couple of yards and not a great play. Such is the difficult balance. I hope Edwards is up to it and based on what he has shown he should be up to it, but one would be a fool to declare him already perfect because he ain't at all. 4. As far as Losman goes, I like the maturity he has shown after the debacle against Jax when he demonstrated he was unable to be a winner on the field consistently with the Fairchild Nonffense. He has demanded a trade and if the Bills get a good offer they should give him his wish. There is little chance he can recover from the Jax failure and be a productive starter here. This is true not because he is a bad player. He is actually a very good player who is young and talented. He has shown flashes of this with a few episodes of late game heroics like he had against NYJ when Edwards got knocked out, on some wonderful athletic scrambles like one where he and Fowler miscued on the snap and Losman not only fielded the oddly shaped rock on a bounce but kept his eyes downfield and completed a pass to Gaines. For those who try to call him a stiff simply note that in the NFL QB ratings (not a perfect distallation but the best we got) Losman actually produces better stats than Edwards. If Edwards were so truly great (he is promising but not great yet) or Losman a complete stiff (he also has problems but is no stiff) it would likely have some reflection in the numbers. Losman is a young athletic QB with experience and some episodic success as an NFL starter (and not merely the play or game here and there sited above but actually has led the team to some consistent winning streaks under the offensive coaching fools we have had here). If you disagree with this point simply remember back to win Edwards had to take a seat with is bum wrist JP led the team to a string of victories which actually forced the Bills to sit Edwards even when he became healthy and the braintrust desperately wanted to play him. Losman from what I have seen still has the potential of a good NFL career ahead of him. He has proven unable to consistently run the Bills handcuffed offense which much better suits a player like Edwards from what I have seen. however, if he gets into the right situation with an offense which calls for more improvisation by the QB rather than a more controlled game like we run, my sense is that Losman will do better. Time and again we have seen players be virtually complete losers for one team (or two in Brad Johnson's case) only to see them play far more effectively with a team and a offense that fits their strengths and minimizes their weaknesses. Who knows for sure (despite the amazing reading of the future that many TSW folks provide) but Losman brings a lot to the table that will make him a good pick-up for a team and an even better one if a team simply waits until they can get him for free next off-season. While there are some rumors of interest from other teams in JP (the GB talk has been expressed on the web so can probably be ignored and the KC talk makes sense though Herm Edwards has said nothing to confirm it) it makes little sense for a team to make a bid on him now prior to seeing what opportunities the draft gives them. The Bills will still need a vet back-up to play the Frank Reich role for Edwards so trading JP for a draft pick makes little sense (unless we sign a vet). However, just as we found a first day choice after a bunch of RB went early in the draft for Henry, I would not be surprised to see more of a market for JP emerge after the draft. Further, as OTAs playout an particularly if another teams starter goes down in pre-season there might suddenly be a lot of demand for JP. The Bills need a back-up and even though I hope JP never sees the field again without a clipboard in his hand, if we are forced to go with JP so be it. However, in the big picture it is amusing for now to watch the pots call the kettles black as many extreme ranters whine about Edwards or JP.

I agree with Kelly and others that there is no market out there to trade for Losman right now, but the chances are still 50/50 or so about him starting the season as a Bill because one thing the draft this month will do is change the market. It strikes me as similar to the situation the Bills were in with T. Henry a couple of years back. Henry was a player who had shown excellent ability at times, but was coming off a period where his work on the field had simply sucked, he had a variety of off-field problems which significantly lowered his value due to uncertainty. JP is a different situation than Henry based on the specifics, however the situation is anlalogous in terms of the impact. JP has shown less production than Henry on the field (but the potential is still there) but his off field issues are far less severe than Henry's. Folks were wailing for TD to simply cut TH before the draft arguing that there was no interest in this loser. TD simply held his fire. The draft came and there were several teams that might potentially be in the hunt for an RB (though like the current JP situation no one is really tipping their hands in terms of particular desires/needs at any position lest they give valuable intelligence to other teams regarding their potential draft strategy) but as it turned out all these teams filled their needs by taking RBs in their initial picks. Again some howled for TDs head saying he blew his opportunity to trade TH and advocating cutting him. TD held his cards. Yet when the smoke cleared as we moved toward pre-season suddenly TD was able to move TH with a substantial payoff from the Titans (soon after the trade TH in fact got suspended), My sense is that no one will trade or even make serious offers for a JP while the draft is coming as it will potentially present opportunities for teams to remake their market needs so unless folks are going to build around JP there is no reason to trade for him. In fact, why even hint they may be in the market for a QB as other teams may pick someone who falls (as Edwards did to us) if they feel that another team is in the market. Add to this, that it would be dumb for the Bills to trade JP for a mere draft choice as this teams needs a vet to play the Frank Reich role as our back-up rather than a rookie who needs to sit on the bench for us for a year or two (Edwards was lightening in a bottle as a rookie capable of starting at QB we cannot count on having this happen twice). It really is about 50/50 whether JP stays or goes.

I think that the posts from folks who are frothing at the mouth at how good Simpson is do appear to be simply caught up in the hype of subjective opinion without looking at reality (for example the claim the Bills did not get best deep much or at all in Simpson's one full season is simply incorrect, if one wants the specific games then simply take the time to look at the games in the first half of the season which saw CB McGee get benched to get him to watch the game a little bit to really get an understanding of the Cover 2. The Bills gave up 2 deep TDs to WRs running fly patterns on plays where McGee either missed the switch or simply did not see that both Whitner and Simpson (the two plays were made with each safety having deep coverage which they could not apply in time after McGee cut his coverage off after the shortzone as is customary in the Cover 2. In these two cases the Bills were scored upon on deep throws and actually they were beaten a couple of other times but opposing QBs did not connect (an example was the game against MN where if Johnson and Robinson had connected a win likely would have been a loss. In these two case it was the CB who seemed to get the blame as he was benched, but nevetheless both Simpson andWhitner looked like the rookies they were out there feebly chasing the WR who scored. However, as opposed to reality as this hyperactive endorsement seems to be I think that your extreme indictment of Simpson is simply not borne out by the reality of what happened. In his one full year of football Simpson simply logged a bunch of PT for a defense that though it simply sucked in overall statistics, if was much improved over the 2005 Bills D which operated without the rookies. In the big picture the big stat was that a team which finished 5-11 the previous year improved to finish 7-9. Even with the lousy yardage stat, the Bills as a team with the D a big part of it and Simpson a big part of the D the team was much improved by Simpson's rookie play. Any indictment which complains about his stride or some other subjective point where the views of any fan need to show some proof for anyone to take it seriously if the view is opposed to that the coaches. Folks were correctly psyched about Simpson because since it was a fact demonstrated by the 06 record that the team improved in the ultimate stat W/L with him logging a lot of PT that it was not unreasonable to look forward to seeing how the team did in 07 with him playing at the same level (even if what you claim about his slowness and too long stride is true) with a year of experience. Folks strike me as flat out deluding themselves if they expect this 4th round pick to come back and be the Bills answer to Ronnie Lott. He is not that good nearly. However, it is quite reasonable for them to be psyched about him coming back since his PT in 06 was simply part of a much improved performance by the team. In terms of 07, the results produced by the team was the same 7-9. Its reasonable to look at the particulars from this all important stat though. Overall, though I think it speaks well to the Bills not only looking to improve at FS (hence the interest in McCree) but also looking forward to the heightened competition between a returning Simpson and a developing Wilson. The mistake I think your thinking makes is making a conclusion that the Bills think that the Simpson/Wilson duo is a disappointment that must be replaced because they were looking at McCree. It is true that the Bills can improve at FS as the two players penciled in at this slot are a one season player coming off the IR and a player switched from O to D. The Bills would be stupid not to take any player they think can be better at a reasonable price. However, the fact the Bill did not offer enough to McCree to attract him here actually is testimony to the simple fact the Bills do not view the FS situation as so bad they are willing to pay anything to get in a replacement. The failure to offer more money to McCree is a sign the Bills are correctly looking to improve at FS but in fact do not see this as such a must have that they are willing to pay more than they think FS augmentation is worth. They have done this before at S as the Bills were willing to pay Lawyer Milloy a premium higher than what his play dictated because they were so disatisfied with Coy Wire. The fact they did not sign McCree means they felt good enough about the Simpson/Wilson combo that they were not willing to pay anything at all to get McCree.

I do not think many people feel that Golisano has any direct say so over the on ice product at all. I think they feel he does have direct control over bringing Quinn in to have direct authority over the budget and put together the on ice product though. The absurd thing is to draw a line that does not give Golisano his fair share of the blame for depending upon someone with the mismanagement talents Quinn has shown since way back when he oversaw the the Muckler/Nolan idiocy and oversaw the hardest working team in the NHL spiral down from its NO GOAL Stanley Cup final loss to its current situation. The fact that this team won the President's Trophy and lost in the Eastern Conference finals the last two years is reasonably not judged by many fans as something that excuses the current spiral but instead simply means we are likely going through the same pain as Quinn has overseem some spectacularly bad calls. Not signing at least some of the difference makers on this team when they either publicly or by rumor could have been signed for far less than they eventually got is simply a sign of really poor reading of the market. To do this is why Quinn gets paid the big bucks and calling for his ouster is not unreasonable for a fan at all.

If you scream in outer space does anyone hear you.

I do not see how I cam be classified as a JP fan when I am quite certain his time as a Bill is (and should be done since he called himself out and failed) done. If anything I am simply a Bills fan and as JP's highest and best use for the Bills IMHO is to trade him in the hopes of getting some undeserved gift like we got when TD unloaded PP for a 1st is to see him gone. Right now I am and Edwards fan and I hope he proves to be the next Joe Montana (though my football sense doubts this will be the case as he has not even earned the starter role which has been handed to him with production on the field). However, if Hamdan somehow got into several games and proved through performance to be great then I say sit Edwards faster than you can say bench. Some are into the NFL because they are fans of individual players. Some are entertained by the NFL because it gives them some pleasure to see this millionaires fail and a QB controversy is just what they want. Count me in as a Bills fan though not a blind one. I think JP even if he plays well now would cause such stupidity and whining from the media and such fans I hope he is gone and brings us an undeserved deal for him. I think JP is a talented athlete who is still young and with a lot of starting experience who in the right hands that maximizes his strengths (mobility, able to improvise positive plays, big arm) and minimize his weaknesses (not a pocket passer, a good reactor but his play suffers when he has to think too much) he can be a very good performer. Our grinding offensive style has a chance of improving with Fairchild gone but overall it ain't gonna change and JP is not the guy for us/ If this view qualifies me as a friend of JP as far as football goes he needs a few more enemies.

I am one fan with little attachment to Losman as I am quite certain that he is done as a Bill. I am also pretty certain that those who claim he has no value as a football player and that he is certain to fail in any situation are also probably wrong. Losman has failed as a QB here and in particular I think he is done here because he called himself out saying Jax was make or break for him and he broke. He would need to restore his teammate's faith in him first (this can be done with a good performance in a clutch situation in a game which he has done before as a Bill as recently as last season so I have little doubt he can do this. However, I think there is little he can do regardless of his onfield performance to sway the folks at WGR who make a lot of money bashing him or legends in their own mind like Jerry Sullivan even with good on field performances. i think that most Bills fans simply care about what have you done on the field for us and they can forgive and forger. However, there is also a small but vocal fan base that is most entertained by seeing a millionaire athlete fail and these folks stoked by the anti-Bills coverage of the media will simply lay in wait even if he does well on the field and at the first mortal failing of any athlete they will squeal I told you so. On TSW we have gone through this as the Bills rushed along TC before he was ready (if he ever could have been ready was actually a question but starting him without training the happy feet out of him was an error0. We saw it with the attempts to pretend the AVP effect which made him an effective relief guy was transmogrified into foolish investment in him as a starter. We saw this with the stupid reach for Billy Joe Hobert who was so stupid he had to be cut mid-season, We saw this with this with foolish long-term signing of RJ who we should have had prove himself on the field before we gave him the guarantee and if there was no way to have him play without the guarantee we should not have traded for him. We saw this with the QB controversy and Ralph exercising his right as an owner to mettle to the ultimate cost to the team. We saw this with the foolish decision to extend Bledsoe's deal (trading for him initially was actually a smart move by us but extending him rather than cutting our losses was foolish. We saw this with rushing JP to start before he was ready. However, though I think all this was true, I do not think it necessarily follows that JP is done as a player in the NFL, but I am pretty certain he is done as a Bills and I have little attachment to him and instead root for Edwards to prove (for the first time) that he deserves the starting QB slot. He was impressive for a rookie last year and deserves to start (as I see no other alternative for us) but I am under no illusion that his impressive play for a rookie is any proof that he is up to be a starter. I hope he is, but will not be shocked if he is not and will not be surprised at all when those declaring him a savior now turn on him as soon as he proves to be human.

My guess is that more than a couple of teams will be interested in a player like JP if he hit FA with is current stats and situation. My sense is they would want to sign him (and likely be happy to pay a pretty penny for him) cause: 1. He is an experienced NFL starter who certainly has not led a winning team in the NFL, but he has compiled personal stats that do not suck (despite the statements of fans who have shown a lot of football knowledge on other issues) but are at the least in the middle of the pack (and easily have been in the upper middle of stat compilations for extended times in his short career). I know many Bills fans hate him and he has disappointed us because he never has led this team to be a winner. However, I my sense is that this disappointment is as much rooted in us Bills fans having high expectations and need for a winning QB after more than a decade of failing to replace Jimbo with a QB who wins a solid majority of the fans and media over for a long time and given the long playoff drought. JP clearly failed here, but one has to be pretty blind not recognize that there were a lot of factors that led to this failure in addition to his not being to cut it as an athlete here. Other teams will realize that this same situation will not exist in his new environs and though it is no guarantee that JP will become a star, it has happened way to many times that a player or even a QB fails miserably in one gig (or two in Brad Johnson's case) and can come back to QB a team to even the ultimate achievement (Johnson, Dilfer, et al). 2. JP had great achievement running for his life but still being productive in college such that he scored a 1st round pick that most thought was legit (many had him as the 4th best QB in that draft and that is where he went. And after 4 seasons (5 when he hits FA but this reverie is based on an assumption (and hope because I hope Edwards is that productive in his second year) that he will not have played so much in his young career that he is used up at all). Not only is he that rarity of a young man with a good dose of NFL starting experience), but his demographics that got him picked in the 1st are still there. There likely will be a ton of teams looking for a new starting QB and likely JP would be one of the most desirable hopes on the market. 3. The idea that JP deserves a harsher judgment because he failed under more than one HC or QB coach tandem ignores the fact that while having multiple tutors does not excuse failure (I think JP is done as a Bill and has to leave here) but this is a real world reason. JP's training has featured him being rushed into the QB job before he had earned it (by his own admission) under Wyche/MM/a couple of OCs. After this debacle he had a hopeful first year under Jauron/Fairchild but not only turned out to be a square peg when a different type of QB was needed for the lame Fairchild O, but he was knocked out of the line0up by a cheapshot from Wilfork (important because two trips to the injured list might raise questions of whether he is injury prone, but given he came back to show good episodes of play after both injuries (his 16 starts last year showed some durability and he played well enough folks were hopeful coming into last season and after he got cheapshotted he did rally the team back to wins and retook the QB job with his play til he called himself out and failed against Jax). JP clearly is not the best athlete in the NFL (like just about everyone else) but it seems clear that neither Bills braintrust chose to play an offensive style which better suited his talents (which he demonstrated behind the Tulane turnstyles and in several NFL episodes. This is not an unreasonable choice as the best players can play and win with multiple styles. However, seeing the reality that JP is not among the best does not mean at all that he must suck. There are more the two options here. If JP chooses the right situation in FA and a team is smart enough to only go after him when they can play well using a rolling pocket and playing with a mobile QB rather than asking him to play a static game, JP has every potential to play quite well. I think JP is done as a Bill in large part not only because he called himself out declaring Jax a make or break game and he broke, but I do not think that the newsmedia here will be willing to value the Bills winning more than them selling column inches with a QB controversy. He could easily win back his teammates confidence if he pulled off a performance like the one he already has done here against NYJ last year. However, the local media will never give him a chance to win back their pretend loyalty even if he QB'ed the team to the playoffs. In addition, there are a set of vocal fans here on TSW and who are happy to call into WGR who are far more entertained by declaring that an athlete sux and is overpaid regardless of how he does than they are with rooting for an athlete to lead the Bills to victory. Will JP be a star elsewhere? Maybe or maybe not. He would need to make good choices to find a team that uses his talents well and he would need a good OC and QB coach (something he never had here) who put him in a position to do what he does best and minimize what he does poorly. Also like every NFL player he will have to get lucky. It easily can happen but there is no guarantee. However, I think the possibility he can do an adequate job at his next stop are actually likely higher than the chances he will suck. Him making a choice and signing with a team that invests in him will likely be a far better situation than him playing for Jauron/Fairchild where he was simply something that came along with the team.

If one wants to be more accurate (which some folks do not because they simply cherry pick the fact(s) which support their point) then a players market value is determined not only by his ability as a player, but also the amount of competition out there at their spot. JP actually has more leverage than Johnson right now because the conventional wisdom is that this is an incredibly deep draft in terms of WR talent which makes it critical in terms of leverage for Johnson to make some noise right now before his market position gets diminished even further by the drafting of several potential competitors. JP on the other hand is a former NFL starting QB with a middlin level of production overall but a clear record as a failed starter, but his coaches made a number of definite errors in his development which would make it silly for other teams to simply declare him done. JP need do nothing more but keep his nose clean and he likely will stand to cash in quite well when FA occurs. Many folks seem to make the mistake of equating salary level to ability as player (they are not the same thing at all though obviously they are strongly related0. They also seem to make the mistake of assuming that a player has some static level of ability which can be assessed when actually the same player can be horrible in a bad situation (the wrong offense for him, bad history, early in his career, etc.) but also be good or very good in the right situation. I think JP is done as a Bill as he declared the Jax game make or break for him and pretty much all he agree he broke. However, I still think he is a young talented player with some clear deficits who could easily produce much better in a different situation. I think the folks who simply write him off as a bad player who will fail everywhere have simply not made a compelling case for this view even though I would agree with them that he is done as a Bill.

The original post did not claim that the Bills did not need CB depth (in fact it specifically says we need more depth at CB). The original post merely made the point that we should spend our first rounder at a position other than using it to get a depth player at CB. It makes the point in torturous detail (again since I still see posts and hear pundits that just do not seem to get it and claim that CB is a first round need for us) that the main reasons folks offer up for the need for a CB is to improve our lousy pass D stats when actually DL, LB, S and even O improvements do more for the pass D than picking a CB early. In fact the only thing sillier than the notion that better CB play is the key to us doing better against the pass is the notion that somehow or other a rookie CB is going to be the key to us stopping vets like Moss and Welker. It simply does not work that way in the game of football the way we play it.

I do not think so and will say so again since I still see folks insisting on this: 1. We run a Cover 2 as our base D (25% of the time by Fewell estimate) and actually similar variations of it (like the Tampa 2 which is not a formal Cover 2 but the CBs play the same role) over half the time. The way we run this D, the CB only has limited pass pro responsibility as he covers the WRs in the short zone and then turns them over to the safeties for deep cover (or the MLB in the deep middle in a Tampa 2). Yes, the CB does have some deep duty on the WRs from time to time when we do standard coverage as a change up. However, when you subtract the just over half the plays where the CB has no pass duty on the WR all over the field, AND also subttract out the plays where the down and distance do not mandate a standard D (such as short yardage when we stack the line or or very long yardage where we run the prevent) and also subtract plays when the opponent in in our redzone and there are no fly patterns, it is relatively unusual for us to use a standard D. Even if we are concerned that the CB will have trouble covering the fly when we run a more standard D we still have the ability to have a safety play centerfield for him and the need to have someone who can cover the WR all over the field is simply not a reason to draft a CB at the cost of getting a more critical player. 2. A big problem for our pass protection last year was not simply the CB quality it was the lack of a pass rush. The number of sacks this team produced last year was pitiful with Schobel leading with about 6 and I think no one else even getting more than 3. Again as we saw with the Gints pinning the Pats ear back in the SB by pressuring Brady and putting him on his butt as much as possible, the big reason why NE ripped us a new one in scoring passing TDs last year was not so much poor CB play, it was the lack of a pass rush and pressure. There really is nothing better we can do for our pass pro than make pick-ups like Stroud and if folks really are concerned about pass protection drafting another sackmaster. 3. The other big problem for our pass pro last year was that the LB play was poor enough that opponents had run and pass options when they needed a 1st down. The pick-up of Mitchell should help alot since he has shown himself to be a good and active tackler and even better he gets a few key sacks. Pos also gives me some hope as he was diligent about sticking with the team and watching a lot of games from the bench. His tackle numbers were very good last year but folks should not be fooled as he looked like a poor man's London Fletcher out there as he did make tackles but often IMHO initiated hits late as this rookie could easily be fooled into taking a step forward on pass plays or a step back on run plays. I expect he will improve a lot this year even though he did not get PT he saw a bit of NFL offenses and he is a smart player. 4. Don't get me wrong, getting better CB play is important to this team as we actually are pretty thin here as both Webster and Thomas are gone (James looks like a nice pick-up but we will see), but the biggest responsibility of the CBs are run support as they have containment on outside rushes and press coverage in the short zone and handfighting on fade routes in the redzone. However, if folks are interested in coverage all over the field and in the mid and deep zones then the pass coverage improvement will come not from the CBs but actually from the safeties who have this duty in the Cover 2 and its variations we use, 5. Finally, if one wants to see better productivity by us in defending against giving up passing yardage, before we go out shopping for a CB we actually would make a better investment in getting a TE and a possession WR who will help us move the sticks and avoid three and outs so the opposing offense gets even less of a chance to throw on us. I know some folks are really worried about facing Moss/Welker and other WRs in this pass-happy league. Yet, this is one of the worse rationales for drafting a CB in the first because folks need to stop drinking the Kool-Aid if they really think that almost any rookie is going to put a serious damper on these vets who likely will laugh and clap their hands if they see the Bills take a CB in the first round. Believe me, if correctly you are worried about our pass defense then CB is actually one of the last positions you want to see us invest in in Rd. 1.