Lurker

To be honest, nobody ever says "reach" in the 7th round. I agree with your basic premise in rounds 1-4, however...

Poz 2.0??

Thanks for sharing...

Get the old band back together! Murph would be a major upgrade to the the nightly sports talk airwaves. Get Brad to produce, bring in a few solid football guys like the old Monday Night QB crew (Mark Gaughan in the Larry felser chair, Vic Carucci for national perspective, etc.) and I might be able to listen to local sports radio again...

GIGO...

I didn't mean to imply that prospects rated as 3-4th rounders suddenly move up one or two rounds in mid-April. More like a guy that might be rated 20-25 rising into the top half of the draft and vice versa, due to FA signings, team interviews, etc. Drafting basically boils down to trying to sort through a huge amount of intangibles using mostly imperfect information. And then crossing your fingers and knocking on wood for good luck. As you said, the DD that teams perform vs. what the celebrity draftniks do also makes up a large part of the "he's a reach" discussion around many picks.

In every draft, the first 5-6 picks are usually consensus guys that everyone agrees on. After that, team boards are all over the place, so one guy's reach is just another's value pick. The whole Mel Kiper-ization of the draft has been what's caused fans to worry about "oh, that's a reach!" Most team draft boards, I suspect, are pretty fluid right up to the last week, with some guy's that have been over-hyped for months sliding downward and others quitely sliding up under the radar. When a guy the draft guru's peg as the 20-30th best prospect goes at 10-15, they cry "reach!" But if he's a good player that fits a team scheme/need, we should be happy and tell Mel/McShay etc. to pound salt...

Yeah, those are Buddy's hot buttons. You can pretty much eliminate guys whenever you read about "potential" rather than "production," or any of the character concerns that prospects may have...

I've come to the same conclusion. I was initially high on Martin, but Glenn looks like more of a sure thing who could play multiple spots on the OL from day one. Plus, I gotta believe it would be easier for Glenn to drop 20 pounds and maintain his strength/movement skills than for Martin to maintain the extra 20-30 pounds/add strenghth if his natural playing weight is 280...

Yes, I read it. And I stand by my comments...

Mock Draft -- 3/29/12 Way to get poor value from the #10 pick...

"Just relax and enjoy it..."

Those rating pertain to the 2010 season--before the new turf was installed.

All you people who want 100% certainty in your analysis/picks should take up a new hobby...perhaps investing in the stock market or collecting modern art.

I wonder if the Bills see him as a LB...

So the "over the past 15 years" part doesn't resonate?

http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php At a minimum, you'd have to give up the second round pick to move from 10 to 4th...

That looks like a good plan to me, as well.

Interesting article from a few years ago about drafting OL in the first round: Consider: "Over the past 15 years, offensive linemen drafted in the top 15 have started 90 percent of their games. The next-closest position group is linebackers … at 70.8 percent."

I suspect most teams spend 1-2 picks per year on OL. The difference is how high or low those picks tend to be based on your drafting success...

Boy, Chris Brown's comments were a "read between the lines" statement about Martin. Buddy said they look at OT differently than most teams/analysts, so if they pulled the trigger on him it would be an against the wind pick for sure. Oh, and Charles Davis doesn't know his ass from his elbow when it comes to his Bills analysis...

That does seem to point at Glenn. He's an interesting prospect. Nolan Nawrocki at Pro Football Weekly seems to be pretty high on him. But that "motor runs hot and cold" line seems to fly in the face of what Nix likes.

Makes sense. If he can't cut it at OT, they can likely slide him inside to OG...

Shuuuuush...don't wake the baby.