JDG

Strength of victory tiebreaker only kicks in if the Bills win out and the Steelers lose to the Bengals and then win out. So its likely a moot point. However, if the strength of victory tiebreaker comes in to play, Bills fans should root for the Browns to lose (since Steelers would likely have swept them), as well as for the Chargers to lose (except for maybe each of their games against KC), and also root against the Cardinals (darn it Vikings!). Bills fans should root for the Texans, Titans, and Dolphins to beat the Patriots and for the same three teams to beat the Colts. Everything else is a bit murkier in terms of playoff implications. JDG

In answer to your question, if the Bills and Steelers tie with a 9-7 record, that will most likely be because the Bills beat the Jets and lost to the Eagles, Redskins, or Cowboys. That would mean that the Bills would beat the Steelers on Tiebreaker #3 by virtue of having 7 conference wins to the Steelers' conference wins. If the Bills and Steelers tie at 10-6 - it would be exactly as you describe if the Steelers beat the Bengals, the Steelers beat us on tiebreaker #4. On the other hand, if the Bills and Steelers tie at 10-6, with a Steelers loss to the Bengals, then it goes to tiebreaker #5. But yes, the Bills really need the Bengals to beat the Steelers. To put it in perspective, right now the NY Times Playoff simulator gives the Bills a 23% chance of making the playoffs. Those odds go up to 46% with a Bills victory over the Eagles and a Bengals victory over the Steelers. However, those odds go down to just 17% if a Bills win over the Eagles is paired with a Steelers win over the Bengals. JDG Hah! You have a very good memory! In all credit to the Ravens band - that organization has actually been in continuous operation since the days of the Baltimore Colts. If they can operate for more than decade without even a football team - they'll definitely survive a few bad seasons.

Thanks Jay and SDS! Yup, its been a long time...... :-)

Here's some fun with the playoff simulator: The Bills have two main playoff scenarios (ignoring exotic scenarios like getting a Wild Card at 8-8 (6% chance according to NY Times simulator) or getting in at 9-7 while losing to the Jets (14% chance!).) ​ (A) Bills get in the playoffs at 10-6 by winning the rest of their games, AND any ONE of the following: (1) Pittsburgh loses to Cincinnati AND Bills win strength of victory tiebreaker (2) Any TWO Pittsburgh Losses (3) Any TWO Kansas City Losses (B) Bills get in the playoffs at 9-7 by going 2-1 vs. the NFC East, beating the NY Jets, AND any THREE of the following: (1) Any ONE other NY Jets Loss (2) Any ONE Oakland Loss (3) Any TWO Pittsburgh Losses (4) Any THREE Kansas City Losses So, let's say that over Weeks 14 and 15 the following happens: (1) Buffalo beats Philly and Washington (2) Pittsburgh loses to Cincinnati and Denver (3) Oakland loses at Denver and/or vs. Green Bay (4) NY Jets lose at Dallas ​ If those four things all happen, then the necessary conditions for the Bills making the playoffs iin both Scenario A and in Scenario B would be fulfilled. Thus, Buffalo would enter the game against Dallas knowing that win or lose vs. Dallas they could clinch a playoff berth the following week at home against the NY Jets. And in fact, so long as the Jets don't lose both games, the Bills would know that they had no "clinching" scenarios in Week 16 either - i.e., win or lose against Dallas, they would still be "in the hunt" for Week 17. The game of course wouldn't be really meaningless, because a win vs. Dallas would give the Bills a few tiny "backdoor" scenarios for making the playoffs even with a Jets loss - but it nevertheless could be a game in which there isn't all that much on the line as we normally think of it.

Correct. There is no Monday night game Week 17. However, there will be a Sunday Night game, the NFL will select a game that is guaranteed to have playoff implications for the Sunday nighter the final week of the season.

This is exactly right. For everyone who wants to dump the Toronto series, I'm not sure how the Bills stay viable in Buffalo over the next 20 years without making serious in-roads to the market. Green Bay continues to exist largely because of Milwaukee. Jacksonville is in a similar spot - but they've just moved one home game a year to London (it could be worse!) But just look at the demographics of Western New York, there's very little way the Bills will be able to earn enough revenue to be competitive relying solely upon the Buffalo-Rochester market. Its expand to Toronto to die. And I'm not sure how they do that without playing a game there. Clearly, playing a game there is not sufficient to tap the Toronto market - I think that a sustained couple years of winning has to be part of the equation too - but I think that playing at least one game (and arguably two) there is absolutely necessary part of that equation.... just not sufficient. Yes, the Bills lose the home field advantage - but don't blame the Toronto deal for that, blame the elected leaders of Buffalo, Erie County, and New York for allowing Western New York's demographics to decilne so precipitously that it is now just barely a major-league-caliber sports market. JDG This is where the stats promoted by the Bills are obfuscating a bit of the real problem. Regionalization of the franchise to include southern Ontario is nice - and certainly better than not doing it - but is ultimately not going to be the sort of thing that can secure a sustainable demographic future for the franchise. The only demographics capable of doing that are Toronto's - and yes, the increase in Canadian attendance at the Ralph is probably not reflective of penetration into the Toronto market, its reflecting regionalization into southern Ontario. JDG

Considering what Lankster has gone on to become - that's probably the case. In fairness, though, Lankster was cut at the end of his sophomore camp in 2010 - and then spent that year in the CFL. So hardly an egregious gaffe in letting him go. Justin Rogers' rooke year was 2011. JDG

I agree great job! Let's hope that this is the game-changer moment....

Exactly right. If the Bills miss the playoffs at 10-6, consider where this team has come from, I think that would definitely count as a success of sorts....

For what its worth... your weekly post is part of my weekly Sunday-evening must-read list. Always enjoy them. JDG

For a while, he was an absolutely amazing kick returned. Might he be a future Wall of Famer?

I'm not sure that Spiller has lined up at RB in the last two games now.... my guess is that since he is getting all his practice reps at WR until Donald Jones comes back that the coaches don't want to insert him at RB without any practice.... Overall, Jackson only had 26 carries (plus three catches). That's not a super-concerning workload. Instead of bringing in White in the reliever role, they pretty clearly used Brad Smith to reduce Jackson's workload, which I think is fine...

The active roster to take Merriman's spot. Coleman had been on the Giants' practice squad, so we couldn't sign him unless we added him to the active roster...