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colin

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Posts posted by colin

  1. the best four teams at roster building in the nfl right now are:

     

    baltimore

    LA Rams

    KC

    Philly.

     

    a little behind them are the 49ers

     

    they all follow a method of getting absolute elite talent at high impact positions.  they all spend big dollars on contracts, are willing to trade, and in order to get this elite talent they are willing to make room in other parts of the roster where they get depth with rookies and cheap free agents.

     

    the prioritize

    1 QB (nuff said)

    2 Line talent (dl and ol), mainly tackle and pass rush

    3 corner

    4 offensive play maker

     

    baltimore is the most talented team in the nfl, they follow the ozzy method.  he had a thing done one him back in the day and he looks at Size, weight, speed, and temperament.  they are always physical and always a monster to play.  when they lose they beat themselves

     

    the rams are real sharp shooters on this star culture stuff.  they had a 1st overall qb and traded him and picks, and took cap hit and signed a new contract, to get another better 1st over pick qb, and it got them a super bowl.  they traded a pick mid season for a live von miller who helped them get their bowl.  they took a safety out of retirement (who could still play a bit) because they had injuries at that position and it helped them win a bowl.  they signed OBJ who helped them win a super bowl.

    they always have pass rushers, and they hit on many of those pass rush picks.

     

    KC requires no mention, they have pat, jones, and kelce and always add talent and are willing to rotate corners and move guys around and sit guys, whatever it takes.  reid his whole career will always trade or draft or sign top flight tackles (not a great value for that guy they have at RT).  their line of scrubs on OL outplayed our line in the game where it counted.

     

    Philly is a monster OL destination, and they've always looked to get top flight pass rushers and corners on D.  they will fill in LB with whoever, but CB and DL is always premium.

     

     

    buffalo has kind of sort of followed this model.  obviously allen is a monster and they traded up to draft and sign him.  they EVENTUALLY, over the last 2 or 3 years put actual resources into the the OL.  torrence is up and down at RG, i think the C was a great value FA signing and is a good player, LG is a jag, and the tackles are elite.  we kept throwing picks at RB, and still do, and eventually hit on cook, who i think combined with this line is a top 5 back in the nfl.  

    On D this model breaks.  the DL is the heart of the D, seemingly even more so in a mcd system.  it's always 4DL, and it's almost always 2lbs.  his scheme requires platooning DL (although he broke this tendency in the past couple of playoffs somewhat) so they don't get as many snaps out of their top DL as other teams do (the kid from GA on philly played like 97% of snaps, for exmpale) and you end up with cast offs like phillips and solomon getting snaps vs lamar jackson in a game on the line late drive.  he also likes smaller guys, and he's so scheme particular he seems really picky on who can play 3 or 1 tech for him.  at LB he has a lot of reads and since there are only 2 of them on like 90% of plays they have to get the gaps perfect and quick.  he loves his nickle to be around the LOS and attacking, and he wants his safeties really far back and making more heady reads than most, and he loves zone, even tho he had his zone guys playing man in this playoffs.

     

    Mcds insistence on his scheme seems to mean we have to have all of these middle class players who can do all the things he absolutely requires and doesn't leave much room for superior talent who might not possess some of the traits he needs.  that's why we had rapp and hamlin with multiple concussions in and out of the lineup as our starters, neither of whom are actually good nfl talents mind you, and had a half punch drunk benford come in and risk cte in this game.  it's also why klien had to come in to guarantee his scheme was run just the way he likes it so he could have a graceful loss to kc instead of playing williams.

     

    we also seem to have this issue, and it's not necessary due to scheme, on offense.  this everyone eats thing just means hollins is the wr on our team w the most snaps outside, and rookie davis has to spell cook when cook is near 9 yards a touch in the afc chip game.  it's why we have anderson come in like 1 out of 6 or 8 snaps and have big contract knox, first round kincaid, traded for vet cooper, and almost first round coleman on the pine 50% or more snaps. 

     

    the above top 4 or 5 teams just don't do that.  they have their elites and play them as much as they can, especially in high leverage situations.

     

    we played douglas last season who was hurt, aj klien, and other guys who were not ready just like we played benford this season in the final game.  

     

    this is why i think mcd will always have too much influence on the players acquired, and why his rigid schematic dogma is our downfall.  

     

    we've been in the hunt for a superbowl several times, including being a favorite for it, and we've had damar hamlin, aj klien, injured cbs, and post retirement bease and brown as starters or large snap count guys, all while not really focusing on getting top top talent at the above mentioned positions.

     

    on O we are running a EP offense and we have picks and contracts into tight ends and we don't freaking throw to them, we don't set up plays to them out of play action because we go heavy jumbo for our power runs because we just don't want to or can't do that w the TEs on the field.  we've never put resources into a true outside guy to stress the D (diggs was more of a all over the place joker type), and we platoon our backs when we CLEARLY have the best non qb player on the field.  we don't have an identity and we've gotten away with it because of allen's talent, and that's why we keep failing the same way over and over and over and over again.  

     

    this team needs to add a couple actual stars, and scheme up ways to fill in the gaps with the rookies and free agents we can gather up easily, like all the other teams do.  and we need to actually play them and use them.  small and injured milano and bernard and number 7 can't be our only every down guys and our best talents when they are small and at non premium positions.

  2. I've looked at it too many times, the throw to kinkaid was the correct play, particularly after he rolled to his right (might have been the wrong place to roll to, but pressure was up the gut and torrence let two guys through as part of his awful awful night.  it was a shocking miracle that he was able to get the ball in the vicinity of the TE at all, let alone hit his arms.

     

    kinkaid cannot make a contested catch at all, he dropped one earlier off of his outstretched hands because a db was touching him.  he's very physically weak at the point of the catch, which is more or less a key skill of tight ends in the nfl.

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  3. 2 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

    The defense could not have looked worse while Benford was in the game. Chiefs were on their 2nd possession and hadn't even faced a 3rd down yet 

     

    that's a good point, and he didn't look so great late vs baltimore.  i think he was banged up at some point in that game and was trying to soldier through.

     

    i hope he's ok.

  4. 1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

     

    On an NFC team, sure, he makes some Superbowls. If we could make them by beating Case Keenum, Josh Johnson and the Washington Commanders like for example the Eagles three times in the past decade we'd have made multiple by now. On the Chargers? Not a prayer, they are miles behind the Bills. 

     

    the chargers have a good d and a solid coach.  they lost vs the texans because their qb fell apart hard.  all is the best qb in the nfl, the best of all time according to his playoff numbers.  he's got a high floor.  mcd has a low ceiling, he can't get over any humps.  allen on a better franchise is a chip machine.

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  5. 2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

     

    No he shouldn't. 

     

    If he has genuine concerns about the leadership of the franchise he should certainly talk to Terry Pegula about them. But marching into offices making demands and issuing ultimatums is Aaron Rodgers style jackass behaviour and won't fix anything. Luckily Josh is a better person than that.

     

     

    pegula has shown slightly less than great acumen wrt selecting and removing front office people in professional sports teams.  it would take something extreme and out of character to light a fire under him.  the above is an example of one such possible thing.  it isn't to say it's likely, or even remotely possible.

     

    allen on the rams, chargers, or sanfran absolutely walks to the super bowl repeatedly and wins a few.  i really do fear that's where he will end up. 

  6. 16 minutes ago, WNYFAN1 said:

    I sure hope they didn't "rush" him through the concussion protocol. Not saying they did, but boy that was was a BAD look.

     

    Hope he's ok

     

    benford took a not super hard hit on the head from hamlin who has the padded helmet, and benford looked like joe biden on a bad day after the play.

     

    i think he was rushed back and was not fit to play.  i really hope he doesn't have a real long term problem now.  

     

    between him going in and no one being ready to replace him and the defensive melt down every year in the playoffs, i'm starting to think we might not have the greatest coaches!

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  7. 1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

    You’re emotional over the loss.  We all are.  But you’re not being at all realistic about any of this.

     

    realistic?  about what, that allen won't pull this stunt?  i don't think pegula will fire the coaches or gm, never said i expected it.  he should, frankly he shoulda ditched him after 13 seconds.  is that unrealistic?  to want an improvement on a coach with the worst coaching blunders and the worst performance on his side of the ball in the playoffs?

     

     

  8. 18 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

    The only coach to blow a game to a 7 seed that hardly ever gets out of the wildcard round has a way better track record than mcd because he won a superbowl a decade and a half ago hahaha ok why don’t you go pick up Doug Pederson while you’re at it 

     

    Sent your post to my cowboys fan friends and they are dying right now 😂

     

    im not saying i think he's great, but he's objectively better than mcd if we are going by his record and accomplishments.  what else would you argue is a reason to keep mcd?  his team's advanced stats in the playoffs are shocking.  goat qb, woat d, and he's a defensive coach.

     

    mccarthy is 11-11 in the playoffs, prior to this season mcd was 5-5.  id blow it up to get im because mcd is awful.  any team that could win with mcd would win with mccarthy.

     

    tbh, i'd much rather get bellicheck, im just using mccarthy as the steel man argument.  mcd is a defense guy, puts his time and picks and money there, and has the worst d in the postseason every single year.  he's not good.

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  9. 18 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

    People thinking McCarthy is better tells me everything I need to know about how rational this place is lol. What a joke 

     

    His track record is way way better than mcds.  

     

    I like the dismissal of him (I don't love him or anything, he's just better than this dumpster fire we have now) because while he's won one, he only got as far as the NFC chip game and some 1 seeds (two of his losses in chip games were to the giants who beat the pats in the super bowl FYI) even tho he had a hall off Fame QB, and while his offense was always great his d let the team down sometimes.

     

    Contrast that with MCD, who has a HOF QB, won nothing, has been to two chip games and no number one seeds, and who's d has sucked hot donkey Wang in the playoffs.

     

    The knock on McCarthy is he should have won more.  The knock on MCD is he hasn't won anything and he calls the shots on the team and he's a d coach and his d has been literally the worst in every playoff loss and his QB has literally the best performance of any QB in the history of the NFL in the playoffs.

     

    Any argument to dismiss McCarthy is an argument to our MCD in a barrell and throw him over the falls.

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  10. two better coaches right now:

     

    bellicheck and mccarthy.  

     

    mccarthy is a kinda dumb corch, but he won a chip and had greenbay in the nfc chip game many times, and he got them to run a good offense consistently.

     

    at worst he'd have the same results as mcd.  he got that trash dallas team w a back up qb to what, 9 wins?  that's what mcd gets love for doing and backing into the playoffs w tyrod.

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  11. allen is too nice to do it, but he should walk into the owner's office and say trade me or fire the front office.

     

    he should say he's going to give pegula 24 hours and then he's holding a press conference making it public.

     

    pegula would waffle, and then josh would do the confrence, and then mcd and beane and the ghosts of boogie basham and nate peterman will exit buffalo.

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  12. 6 hours ago, HaldimandBills said:

    Are we as Bills fans claiming this as a victory? That isn't even the bare minimum for most Superbowl teams. The Bills simply cannot stop good offenses in the playoffs. I don't care how the Bills do it but they need to get to a place where they hold great  teams to less than 25 points. Chiefs went defense first 3 seasons ago and now they're on their way to Superbowl Victory # 3. The Bills are going backwards and only being saved defensively by their offense that eats up a lot of clock. 

     

    they picked up an unforced fumble and didn't get completely trucked two times!!!  how can you ask for anything more.  let's bring peterman and boogie basham back!

  13. 11 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

    I agree we should have run Cook more.  But saying the D made two stops in the 4 th quarter giving them only a FG is not silly narrative building.  It is fact.

     

    highest mahomes epa in the season, highest success rate for his career.  that's a fact that includes every single snap for the game by our d.  it is not based on vibes and feels, it is the cold hard numbers.

     

    allowed the most points by this not good kc O for the season.  the d got a fluke turnover without forcing it in the first half, if not for that kc scores on every possession save the kneel down at the end of the first half.  the d made a couple plays and forced 2 punts in the second half.  you don't give the d credit for when those two stops came and just ignore the first half.  the d was absolutely awful.  this is a bad d, bottom 5 on 3rd downs all year, bottom 10 pass d.  

     

    kc has a bad o this year, that's why we got any stops.  they have horrible talent at tackle and no effective running backs suited up for them in that game.  this d sucks.

  14. 8 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

    Some of this is not accurate.  I’ll give you an example from the comments made here during the game yesterday.  Three of our brethren, guys that post a lot and all of whom think they’re experts, commented during the first half about our D.  One complained we were playing softczone, one said we were playing all man and needed to switch out, and one said we were playing both.  
     

    We did play more man yesterday that what you are saying about scaredy-cat zones.  And calling D against a guy in Reid who to me is right there with Walsh as the best offensive mind ever.  And the D made one stop and held them to a FG in the fourth quarter and gave us a shot.

     

    i didn't say we played zone in the first half, but that our d has two modes and they both suck when the rubber hits the road (one is a passive soft zone which you might remember from such games as 13 seconds) or an ineffectual mix (which you might remember from our playoff exits for every single year since the 2019 season where we allow either close to the highest epa game for all teams for the entire season, or at least the highest epa game for that particular team for that season).

     

    the above are verifiable truths.  the sharp money came in late for the bills because cogent analysis shows that the bills had a tremendous advantage running the ball vs kc.  kc had trouble running all night and the bills ran at will.  what was missed by the sharps is that the coaches for the bills are brain dead and just called qb sneaks as often as they could and took our best player this whole playoffs (cook) off the field or denied him the ball as much as they could.

     

    this reminds me of the super bowl 25 loss.  the d was over matched and the o had a clear key to victory by dominating with a running back and OL who the other team could not stop.  instead of us winning that chip and getting to one this season, our dumb dumb coaches get tight and panicked and took the ball away from what was our best advantage early, and had no plays practiced and prepared to beat the clearly obvious extreme pressure that spaggs would bring as he has literally every single game we've ever played against him.

     

    harping on about the d made a stop and allowed only 3 points giving the o a shot is silly narrative building.  the bills had every chance to run cook and build a lead and wear them out, but figured that wasn't as smart as dogwater stuff they did, and the d as it ALWAYS DOES in the playoffs allowed mahomes the highest success rate per drop back in the history of his career.  no one's ever done it worse.

  15. 7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

     

    I know for a fact from people who have been inside the building that Beane runs the draft and while McDermott definitely has the power of veto in reality he has total faith in Beane to execute. 

     

    I disagree on your "terrible schemes and philosophies point" and Shakir wasn't ready as a rookie and Dorian Williams is still up and down as a second year player. Those usage decisions are obviously Sean McDermott's though. That isn't Beane. 

     

    look, beane sucks.  i get that, he's shown it.  he lucked out in the biggest way when denver and the jets passed on 17 (and i suppose clevland too).  mcd as you said has veto power in the draft, that means he is in control.  if he has total faith in beane, it means he gets final say and he trusts a guy who consistently has a roster with bad bad contracts and zero speed on either side of the ball.  

     

    shakir isn't some top talent, and won't ever be.  as a rookie he was a better player than bease or brown who were out of football.  williams is not a smart lb and looks worse being bad in coverage than our other linebackers, who look a bit better while being bad in coverage, but aj klien was 100% certain to suck when he was brought in out of retirement.

     

    if mcd makes the roster decisions himself (which he clearly did w shakir vs the corpses, or williams vs the other corpse) or if he gets final say and doesn't use it (as you say on the draft) he's still the man in charge and he stinks.  mcd has shown bad judgement on who he defers to, and bad judgement when he's clearly calling the shots.  he's a runt himself and loves his runt azz players like the out of retirement guys above, hamlin, peterman, and way past due von and star and dq jones.  feel good charity moves like extending hyde/poyer, knox, and even the diggs (just a shocking shocking extension for a 30 year old wr who isn't big or fast and had a history of locker room disruption) one shows fear and an unwillingness to make moves for change.  kc let hill go for value and rebuilt their entire roster after their what, 4th consecutive afc chip game?  we haven't made a move for a real veteran coordinator or a strong push to add talent (which means letting go of people who don't get it done) after 5 consecutive bad playoff beats on the back of woat level defensive play.

     

    in a normal organization, the buck stops w the gm and if he doesn't make necessary coaching changes you can the gm and the coach.  in ours, mcd is the man in charge and he obviously won't make the gm changes, and his side of the ball has consistently been historically bad in the playoffs.  if you have a front office structure where it's unclear who to blame for the bad moves then the fix is to remove the front office because they have created a bad losing structure.

     

    im not disagreeing with your main point that beane is dogwater, he's a fool and he sucks.  im saying removing him is a half measure, and we need to make a full one.

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  16. Mahomes had his best game in terms of epa per drop back for the season, and the highest success rate for his career in drop backs.

     

    the chiefs are clearly the better team, but this team plays hope and prayer defense, and has since mcd got here.  they play scaredy cat zone which works great vs awful teams, or sort of out of character man, and sprinkle in blitzes here and there.  no creativity, and on O it's just call plays and hope allen makes magic.

     

    the roster construction and most importantly how the games are planned and executed are simply not high level.  the bills almost refuse to dictate on O, it's all about allen making reads and extending plays post snap.  the last two drives had kc absolutely sell out to jam every gap and get up the field on first and second down, but the bills just didn't have anything set up to get the ball out quick and easy.  this is vs the master of the blitz.  they also simply didn't run cook anywhere near enough.  4 carries in the first half.  the roll outs and the pitches to him were destroying kc, so they put a pin in them early.

     

    the offense left some stuff on the table, but make no mistake about it, our d put in another historically bad performance, and this team has gotten by on d with turnovers since mcd got here.  we need a fix.

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  17. 12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

     

    I think you are under a misapprehension that I have defended the defensive performance in that first half in some way. I most definitely have not. I have also said very clearly and pointedly that the initial gameplan was wrong - we tried to play man coverage and we don't have the horses to play an coverage against the speed the Chiefs have. We played a lot of man in week 11, with some success, but they didn't have Hollywood or Pacheco and we did have Benford and Rapp - and we got away with Worthy and Mahomes missing on a critical big play even then where yesterday they hit on one. That is squarely on coaching unless you think me criticising the opening gameplan (on both sides btw I thought the first half plan on offense was wrong too) is a criticism of someone else?

     

    All of that is accepted. 

     

    But there is a second reason we lost this game - and it is that a whole bunch of the big draft decisions that Brandon Beane has made in recent years and that have no worked out but have been papered over by an MVP style year from Josh and some clever coaching (particularly on offense from Joe Brady) came home to roost. It is Beane himself who always says your last game often reveals your biggest flaws. That is true. And one of them is three botched first rounds in a row and all three of those showed up BIG at critical moments of this game. 

     

    Yea, McDermott may be on the hotseat next year, he may not be, but Brandon Beane darn well needs to be. You don't get to mess up the first round three years in a row when you are in an arms race with the Chiefs and in two of those three years we were fishing in the same pool as them:

     

    Both wanted a corner in 2022

    Both wanted a receiver in 2024

     

    Brandon Beane lost both of those battles. Do I think yesterday goes differently if you flip McDuffie - Elam (who was btw the Chiefs fallback if they missed McDuffie re. The Athletic article a couple of years ago) and Worthy - Coleman? Yes. Yes I do. 

     

    do you really think beane handles the drafting and contracts on his own?  he was hired by the HC, who knew him from carolina.  mcd has as much influence as a HC on the roster as any other nfl head coach.  he calls the shots.  he's very very married to his terrible schemes and philosophies, and all the picks scream scheme picks.

     

    beane sucks, no argument here, but beane works for mcd, not the other way around.  mcd is calling the shots and the shots suck.  don't you remember getting brown and bease out of retirement to suck in the playoffs in 2022 when shakir rotted on the bench because he's a rookie?  don't you remember getting klien last season while williams rotted on the bench?  do you think beane thought of that on his own?  mcd's finger prints are all over this roster in both who gets picked/signed and who gets burn.

  18. both of our guards were terrible in that game, we have a high pick in torrence but getting a real G on the team would help and i think there are plenty to choose from.

     

    we need help in the d secondary in a huge way.  we have one high quality nfl player there and he might have had his brain scrambled in the game last night, a game he CLEARLY was not ready to play in.  we need at least 1 if not 2 1 techs, and some kind of impact DL would really help, a pass rusher would be huge.

     

    on O, we need freaking speed.  we need fast guys who have nfl skills who can stress the d.  hollins is our best outside weapon.  he's a career special teams guy, but he's a dog and a gamer.  samuels, shakir, coleman, and kinkiad are all slot wrs.  

     

    this team w the OL, RB, and QB are close to being able to win it, and the holes we have on the roster are sad enough that some jags and like 2 or 3 really good players can put us over the top.  i think the biggest need is in coaching and sadly i don't think that move gets made.

  19. bellicheck, gruden, mccarthy.  I don't even think the last two are actually great coaches tbh, i'd put gruden slightly above mccarthy.

     

    this team is built exactly how mcdermot wants it.  he hired the gm, he got all kinds of ex panther signed, he picked the other coaches on the roster.  he and daboll ended up hating each other because dabol is intense and won't just be a yes man.  mcd is the one who drools over "character" and all that crap.  it's just like when levy was the gm here, we outright sign and draft under talented players.  mcd is so scared of change and starting rookies and young guys he over paid to extend diggs, milano (he's a great player, but always hurt, off ball LBs are not premium), von (the contract sucks, the extensions just kept him as a hole in the roster and cap), Dquan, knox (better than dalton, but a top 30 te paid like top 10).  you could argue about the oliver extension too, but compared to the other ones that was a home run.

     

    mcd has as much power as any HC in the nfl.  his d was doing really bad, his o was inconsistent so he fired the OC, the DC walked after cinci (wondering if frazier didn't buy what mcd was selling just like daboll didn't) so he just doesn't have anyone else replace him, and he's got a shocking talent at qb but he has never once had an OC who has ever once had success at the nfl level.  could you imagine either harbaugh or payton or reid marrying the best unit of their team BY FAR to a rookie playcaller, or a low quality retread like daboll was?

     

    if the owner has anything on the ball, and sadly i don't think he does, he'd back up a brinks truck and get billy the cheater out of NC.  he almost beat us with the ghost of cam newton and beat us twice with that bust off trash qb from alabama.

     

    we have a solid OL (played like butt last night tho) two really good RBs, the best QB, and at least four or five guys on D with some ability.  we have some cap room opening up over the next two years.  a good coach/gm can get this team rolling and give us an actual chance to win vs kc.

     

    we've played kc 10 times since 2020, that's basically a division rival at this point.  we lose every playoff game the same way -- d allows them their best epa of the season and our O has no answers for the blitz, save the 13 second game where allen was on the biggest heater i've ever seen and mccoach messed up a kick off and every defensive call in the worst way possible.

     

    it can't get more obvious where our weakness is, and where our failings are.

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  20. 1 minute ago, JohnNord said:


    Fire Sean McDermott.  Hire Mike McCarthy.

     

    This place 😒

     

    Ok, tell me why he's a worse coach?  Is it because he only won one w a HOF QB?  Do you think his side of the ball has under performed MCDs side of the ball?

     

    Honest question, why is he a worse option than our current coach?

  21. Just now, corta765 said:

    3:32 and 3 timeouts can’t get it done. Last year fails when it matters vs KC. HOU in 2019. I’m over protecting or excusing Josh he owns the failure to. It isn’t gonna happen with him would rather regress then pretend it’s ever a reality at this point.

     

    Allowed the highest EPA to mahomes all season, allowed the most points vs mahomes all season.  Allen is literally the QB with the best stats in NFL history in the playoffs and MCd is a coach with the worst stats in losses which happen in every season he's coached in.

     

    Like, do you ever notice there are bills played on the field when Allen isn't?  Those are d and special teams!!  And they suck.

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  22. 2 minutes ago, corta765 said:

    Could care less. Trade him and get what you can, who cares at this point.

     

     

    How much less could you care?

     

    Look, you're not launching any rocket ships, I get that, but it doesn't take much googling to see how shockingly historically bad our d has been every single playoff loss and several games every season.

     

    We have a great all time QB and a trash heap front office.

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